Fitch Ratings: Demographic Volatility A Risk for Some States in Downturn

Fitch Ratings-New York-06 August 2018: US states with the strongest and most stable demographic and economic factors are generally expected to be less impacted by a cyclical downturn than those with strong but more volatile underlying trends, Fitch Ratings says.

We recently reviewed eight factors to assess demographic and economic trends at the US state level. The trends and absolute levels for these factors, and others, can provide insight into states’ resilience against cyclical stresses to general economic forces, or more narrow secular trends in some cases. Demographic growth has been strong for many states in the West Coast, Plains and Rocky Mountain regions whereas weakness has been evident in the Great Lakes, New England and Middle-Atlantic regions. Some states that have exhibited relative strength over the intermediate to longer-term, with regard to population trends and various economic and wealth measurements, include Texas, the State of Washington, North Dakota and Wyoming.

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