The outcome of November’s 2024 U.S. elections could be profound for the trajectory of federal policy with implications for credit. Fitch Ratings believes a victory for incumbent President Joe Biden and a split Congress – a status quo outcome – would mean a continuation of key policies, including for the budget, foreign policy and trade, the regulatory environment, social policies and climate. By contrast, a victory by presumptive Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump would likely mean changes to key policy areas. This could include departures from long-held bipartisan consensus, such as in foreign policy, even under a divided government scenario. The probabilities of rapid and profound policy changes would rise significantly should Republicans also take control of the Senate while retaining or increasing their majority in the House of Representatives
Mon 08 Jul, 2024