Key Takeaways
- U.S. public transit and airport sectors face the longest recovery relative to other U.S. transportation subsectors, with our current baseline activity estimates for 2021 compared with pre-COVID-19 levels showing annualized declines of approximately 50% for public transit, and 40% for airports; and public transit ridership recovering to approximately 15% below pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of 2023 and enplanements returning to or near pre-pandemic levels in 2024 for most airports.
- We believe there is still a relatively high degree of uncertainty regarding the demand for transportation infrastructure over the next six to 12 months, which will depend on the conquering of COVID-19 and the economic effects of the pandemic.
- Outlooks on individual debt ratings on public transit and airport-related issuers sensitive to changes in ridership and air travel demand, respectively, are likely to remain negative, although we could revise outlooks if we believe there is a sustained and sufficient recovery and stabilization in activity levels, and forward-looking financial metrics we consider achievable and aligned with current ratings.
- In 2021, we could revise the outlook to stable from negative on debt ratings on transportation infrastructure providers whose finances are less sensitive to changes in user behavior compared with pre-COVID-19 levels.
13 Jan, 2021