Marijuana Tax Revenues Fall Short of Projections in Many States, Including Colorado.

COMMENTARY | As the market matures both the price of marijuana and tax revenues associated with its sale will likely drop further in the future.

Nearly half of Americans live in a state that allows legal access to recreational marijuana. Eleven more states, including Wisconsin and Florida, are considering legalization in 2024.

One of the most common rationales for legalizing marijuana is increasing state tax revenue. How much revenue comes in depends on decisions states make about regulating the marijuana industry, including how it is taxed.

I’m an economist who specializes in forecasting how various tax regimes affect markets. My expertise spans industries such as legal recreational marijuana, alcohol and tobacco. I’ve examined various taxes on marijuana in states such as Colorado and Washington to understand how much revenue has been brought in and the role state tax policies have played in that outcome.

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