Finance





High Yield Municipal Bonds: Understanding Where Credit Risk Lives.

Even among nonrated bonds, defaults are generally rare and focused on narrow areas.

Moody’s regularly publishes a study that examines defaults in the rated universe of distressed municipal bonds, but it leaves out a sizable portion of the municipal market that is unrated. To provide clarity on the full municipal market, we conducted our own study using Bloomberg data. Here’s what we found.

With over $3.7 trillion municipal bonds currently outstanding, there are approximately $57 billion in municipal bonds (or 1.5% of the outstanding municipal market) in Bloomberg that are coded as distressed. Distressed in this instance can mean that the issuer fully defaulted on a bond payment, partially defaulted on a bond payment, or is in violation of a covenant (i.e., the debt service coverage ratio is below the set-forth amount).

As the table below indicates, the sector with the largest number of distressed bonds is Tobacco, with $14.2 billion or 23.5% of the total. Such bonds are funded with settlement money and categorized as distressed due to the overall decline in smoking and the fact that some large issuers have drawn on their liquidity reserve funds to pay interest. General Obligation (GO) bonds account for $13 billion or 21.6% of the total. This should not be taken as an indication of poor credit quality in GOs overall; it’s more that names that have received extensive headline coverage for fiscal concerns-Puerto Rico, Detroit and Jefferson County-all have bonds in the category. The Power sector, the third largest ($8.2 billion or 13.6%), is largely composed of Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) debt, which is subject to similar pressures as other municipal issuance from the commonwealth.

Sector Par Outstanding Number of Distressed Credits
Tobacco Settlement 14,240,689,199 40
General Obligation 13,061,406,880 375
Power 8,199,925,000 244
Other* 8,140,559,192 894
Development 4,509,884,983 543
Water 2,324,284,636 212
Pollution 1,427,215,000 46
Facilities 1,292,044,000 191
Nursing Homes 1,192,993,593 311
Medical 1,038,405,000 232
Multifamily Housing 1,000,142,118 195
Airport 830,615,000 19
Transportation 755,055,441 64
Build America Bonds 681,670,000 6
Education 445,625,000 79
Higher Education 350,010,000 53
Utilities 341,515,000 42
Mello-Roos 292,915,000 126
Housing 237,733,785 29
Single Family Housing 62,504,423 32
School District 7,880,000 10
Bond Bank 195,000 1
Total $60,433,268,251 3,744

*Other refers to Special Tax District, Bonds, Tax Increment Bonds and certain Community Development District bonds.
Source: Bloomberg, Neuberger Berman, data as of November 23, 2015.

By definition, high yield municipal bonds carry greater credit risk than their investment grade municipal counterparts. But it bears noting that distressed credits are less common among high yield municipals than their corporate high yield counterparts, where 2.3% of bonds are considered to be distressed. 1 As such, we believe that the municipal market continues to be a good place to add credit risk in exchange for additional yield, particularly among what we would characterize as quality non-investment grade issues. Of course, when investing in higher yield bonds, it is important that investors undertake careful analysis of issuer credit fundamentals as they pertain to long-term payment prospects.

1 As defined by the Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Index.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. The firm, its employees and advisory clients may hold positions of companies within sectors discussed. Specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for advisory clients. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities identified and described were or will be profitable. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Information presented may include estimates, outlooks, projections and other “forward looking statements.” Due to a variety of factors, actual events may differ significantly from those presented. Neuberger Berman products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Investments in hedge funds and private equity are speculative and involve a higher degree of risk than more traditional investments. Investments in hedge funds and private equity are intended for sophisticated investors only. Unless otherwise indicated returns shown reflect reinvestment of dividends and distributions. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The views expressed herein may include those of those of Neuberger Berman’s Asset Allocation Committee which comprises professionals across multiple disciplines, including equity and fixed income strategists and portfolio managers. The Asset Allocation Committee reviews and sets long-term asset allocation models and establishes preferred near-term tactical asset class allocations. The views of the Asset Allocation Committee may not reflect the views of the firm as a whole and Neuberger Berman advisers and portfolio managers may recommend or take contrary positions to the views of the Asset Allocation Committee. The Asset Allocation Committee views do not constitute a prediction or projection of future events or future market behavior.

December 02, 2015, 12:00:00 AM EDT

By Sarah Gehring | Senior Research Analyst, Municipal Fixed Income, Neuberger Berman

This material is being issued on a limited basis through various global subsidiaries and affiliates of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. Please visit www.nb.com/disclosure-global-communications for the specific entities and jurisdictional limitations and restrictions.

The “Neuberger Berman” name and logo are registered service marks of Neuberger Berman Group LLC.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.




Clinton Proposes $275 Billion Infrastructure Plan With Bank, BABs.

DALLAS — Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton outlined a plan for $275 billion of new federal infrastructure funding, including a revival of the stimulus-era Build America Bonds program, at a campaign stop on Sunday in Boston.

Clinton’s proposal includes $250 billion of direct federal funding for roads, transit systems, and ports — in addition to whatever transportation spending is contained in a compromise multiyear highway bill expected to be released on Monday night — and a $25 billion federally funded infrastructure bank that she said would generate an additional $225 billion of low-interest loans to spur private investments in public projects.

“This would be on top of what the Congress should finally get around to authorizing,” Clinton said of the $275 billion proposal at the Nov. 29 “Hardhats for Hillary” rally. “That is just the floor. We have to build on that. We are trillions of dollars behind. We have to add to what the Congress appropriates.”

Clinton did not provide details of her infrastructure plan at the Boston rally, but a campaign spokesman said the additional funding would come from corporate tax reform.

“Our roads and bridges are potholed and crumbling,” Clinton said. “Our airports are a mess, our ports need improvement, and our rail systems do as well.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who also is seeking the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, in January proposed a $25 billion national infrastructure bank as part of his $1 trillion, five-year infrastructure program.

Sanders’ Rebuild America Act proposal (S. 268) would boost expenditures from the Highway Trust Fund to $75 billion a year from fiscal 2015 through fiscal 2022 from the current $53 billion. His infrastructure plan would provide $735 billion of transportation funding, including $75 billion for passenger and freight rail infrastructure, and $145 billion for local and state water projects.

The latest short-term extension of federal transportation funding authority, a 14-day fix signed into law the week before Thanksgiving, will expire at midnight Friday unless Congress passes either a multiyear bill or, more likely, another quick fix to give lawmakers a few more days to agree on a compromise measure being developed by a House-Senate conference committee.

Rep. Bill Shuster, R-Pa., chairman of the conference committee resolving the differences between competing House and Senate highway bills, said he expects a bipartisan conference report on a five-year highway bill will be released Monday night.

The compromise proposal would shorten the six-year bills to five years to boost annual funding levels, bringing them closer to the per-year amounts in the Senate proposal.

Shuster, who is also chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and chief sponsor of the House highway bill, told the Pittsburgh Tribune Review in an interview published on Sunday that he would have preferred a full six-year funding measure rather than the five-year plan that will be recommended in the compromise bill.

“It’s always a battle, but you can’t expect to get everything you want. None of us get that in life,” Shuster said. “But you work together to get things passed because it’s what is right for the country.”

The Senate’s DRIVE Act (H.R. 22) would allocate $273.4 billion for highways and $59.3 billion for transit through fiscal 2021. The House adopted an amended version of the Senate measure that authorized $261 billion of federal highway funding and $55 billion for public transit.

The original bills included full funding for only the first three years, with billions of dollars in general revenue offsets to support the $40 billion per year of dedicated taxes deposited into the HTF. Expenditures from the HTF in fiscal 2015 totaled $53.7 billion.

THE BOND BUYER

BY JIM WATTS

NOV 30, 2015 1:54pm ET




Memo to Puerto Rico: Alabama County Shows Limits of Bankruptcy.

Four years after filing what was then the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history, Jefferson County, Alabama, is learning that having debt wiped out in court doesn’t solve all one’s financial problems.

Alabama’s largest county emerged from bankruptcy in 2013 freed from $1.3 billion of bonds that hastened its collapse, only to still be unable to make up for deep spending cuts for police, road work and health care. It’s at risk of defaulting on some debt as soon as 2017. And it’s counting on returning to the bond market next year for the first time since leaving court protection, seeking to free up needed cash by refinancing debt left behind.

“They’re floundering, still bogged down with remnants of their past,” said Richard Ciccarone, president of Merritt Research Services in Chicago, which tracks municipal borrowers. “They still have remaining structural issues that weren’t resolved by their bankruptcy.”

The 661,000-person county, which is home to Birmingham, provides a lesson for Puerto Rico, the Caribbean island 1,650 miles (2,654 kilometers) away. There, with the government rapidly going broke after running up $70 billion of debt as the economy sputtered, Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla is pleading with U.S. lawmakers to give it the power to file for bankruptcy, just as local governments can. They’ve so far declined.

While such a step allows governments to escape from debts if a judge approves, it can leave behind other liabilities, delaying a fresh start, and doesn’t always address the root cause.

Detroit, which was once felled by rising debt, pension bills and a shrinking population, in 2024 will have to start paying about $194 million a year in workers retirement bills that were delayed by the bankruptcy. Jefferson County is still contending with debt that was left intact and the blow of a court verdict that struck down a tax that provided 40 percent of its revenue.

“Bankruptcy was never a panacea, but necessary to deal with an unimaginable debt load,” said James Stephens, president of the Jefferson County Commission, in an e-mail.

Jefferson County’s bankruptcy was triggered by a sewer project that was dogged by mismanagement and corruption. When the price tag more than doubled to over $3 billion, officials refinanced debt with floating-rate bonds and derivatives, like homeowners who used exotic loans to buy houses they couldn’t afford. The tactic backfired during the 2008 credit-market crisis, leaving the county on the hook for hundreds of millions in fees and demands to pay off the debt early.

Then, in 2011, an Alabama judge ruled that a wage tax that raised $75 million a year was illegal. That finally pushed it to file for bankruptcy, which allowed it to cut its sewer debt to $1.8 billion from $3.1 billion.

Still, the county reduced its workforce by 1,200, or one-third, in response to the loss of the tax. One jail was closed, and the county has been hard-pressed to invest in new infrastructure. The budget has been cut by 46 percent since 2008, according to Fitch Ratings, which estimates that the county will need to drain $38 million from its reserves this year.

Jefferson County is now seeking to free up money for infrastructure projects by refinancing about $666 million of debt sold for its schools in 2004 and 2005 as soon as first quarter of 2016, said Stephens.

Default Risk Lingers

It plans to do the same with about $69 million of obligations backed by leases on county buildings. The county has struggled to meet those bills: It initially planned to have bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. cover some of the debt payments due this fiscal year, which Standard & Poor’s said would be a default, until it was able to secure funds. That sparked a two-level upgrade by S&P on Dec. 1 to CCC, eight steps below investment grade.

“Because there’s not a plan to make those payments after 2016, we think they’re still vulnerable,” said Jim Tchou, analyst at S&P.

By refinancing the school debt and pushing payments into the future, the county will be able to access about $36 million a year of taxes that support the debt and provide $18 million for schools, said Stephens, the county commissioner.

Jefferson County convinced state lawmakers to allow it to use some of the 1 percent sales tax that now goes to the school debt for other expenses after the refinancing. The sale still has another hurdle: The county’s awaiting approval of the deal from an Alabama judge. A group of residents is also seeking to have the sales tax thrown out in court, which, if successful, would deal a fresh hit to the public purse.

“Bankruptcy provides more runway to deal with financial pressures but it doesn’t resolve the systematic problems that existed before,” said James Spiotto, managing director at Chapman Strategic Advisors LLC, which advises on financial restructuring.

In Puerto Rico, officials would like to give it a try. If only Congress would let them.

Bloomberg Business

by Darrell Preston

December 3, 2015 — 9:01 PM PST Updated on December 4, 2015 — 5:01 AM PST




Moody's: U.S. State and Local Government Outlooks are Stable for 2016.

New York, December 04, 2015 — The 2016 outlook for both US states and local governments remain stable as the continuing recovery of the US economy drives moderate tax revenue growth, Moody’s Investors Service says in two new annual outlook reports.

State tax revenue should rise 4%-5% in 2016. While this is slightly below last year’s forecast, it is consistent with the post-recession average.

However, regional challenges will cause economic and revenue performance to vary across the country. Oil and gas producing states, particularly those with budgets heavily reliant on the sector, could be forced to reduce their budgets and lower their forward revenue assumptions.

Other pressures to state budgets include K-12 education, Medicaid, and infrastructure maintenance.

“Even with slower revenue growth and headwinds from rising spending costs, we expect most states will successfully keep their financial positions in balance with prudent budgeting,” Kenneth Kurtz, a Moody’s Senior Vice President, says in “US States 2016 Outlook – Moderate Revenue Growth Supports Fiscal Stability for Most States.”

Property taxes, which are the primary source of most local government revenues, are expected to improve by 2%-3% amid local tax base growth. Though still below prerecession growth of 4%-5%, some local governments are limited by tax caps and slower-than-expected recoveries.

In addition, the stable outlook for local governments is supported by an increase in median fund balances. Fund balance levels indicate the financial resources a local government has available to meet future contingencies, Moody’s says, and currently median fund balances are higher now than in 2008.

Unfunded pension liabilities and other fixed costs remain a long-term challenge for some local governments, however.

“Net pension liabilities will continue to grow in 2016, particularly given weaker June 30, 2015 investment returns and because local governments’ annual pension contributions are often below actuarial requirements,” David Strungis, a Moody’s Analyst, says in “US Local Governments 2016 Outlook – Growing Property Tax Revenue and Improving Fund Balances Underpin Stable Outlook.”

Moody’s outlooks reflect its expectations for the fundamental financial and economic conditions in a sector over the next 12-18 months.

The reports are part of a series of outlooks on a wide variety of sectors globally published by Moody’s. For other reports in the series, go to www.moodys.com/2016outlooks.

The state outlook is available to Moody’s subscribers here and the local government outlook is located here.




Standard & Poor's U.S. Public Finance Transportation Rating Transitions and Defaults Study Spotlights Stability.

Although U.S. public finance transportation sector ratings tend to be lower than in other areas of municipal finance, the sector is among the most stable regarding the level and number of ratings. The sector includes airports, ports, mass transit, parking facilities, and toll roads and bridges. In this CreditMatters TV segment, Senior Director Larry Witte highlights the report’s key findings.

Watch the video.

Nov. 23, 2015




Why Are Closed End Bond Funds On Sale Like Its Black Friday?

Many closed end bond funds (“CEFS”) are trading at large discounts to net asset value (“NAV”).

I selected Western Asset Managed High Income Fund for this chart, but there are many closed end bond and loan funds (including funds invested in Municipal Bonds) that exhibit similar patterns.

We have seen the discount to NAV (the yellow line) increase. This has largely been due to the price performance of the CEF, as the underlying NAV has been reasonably stable as of late.

The most common reasons I hear for the discount to NAV on so many CEFS are:

I will attempt to address each of these reasons in turn and will add one additional reason to consider deeply discounted funds.

A December Rate Hike and Bond Prices

According to Bloomberg, the market is pricing in a 72% chance that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will raise the Federal Reserve Fund Target Rate range by 0.25% in December.

I wanted to be explicit about what rate is being hiked because it is crucial to understand that the Fed has limited ability to set longer term rates. The treasury market yield curve for bonds with maturities 2 years or less is heavily influenced by the Fed Funds Rate and by the messages the Fed sends. As you move further out the curve, to 10 years and beyond, rates are influenced by longer term policy indications and fears (or hopes) of growth and inflation.

With the rate hike so well telegraphed, there is little reason to believe that bond yields across the curve will move by much. Any change in longer term yields are more likely to more based on the tone of the Fed meeting – which will likely be very dovish and show that they will be extremely cautious in terms of future interest rate hikes.

So based solely on the hike, there should be little movement in bond prices.

There is concern that the rate hike will cause the dollar to strengthen, causing yet more pressure on commodity prices, in turn hurting bonds of those producers. That is a possibility, but as we have seen time and time again, when something is so logical and widely anticipated, it rarely occurs. The market has had almost a year to digest the impact of the first rate hike, and the dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) is already at highs of the past 12 years (first reached in February).

So being concerned about further dollar strength is rational, it may already be priced in.

The Impact of Leverage

A rate hike will likely increase the cost of the leverage used by most CEFs. Assuming the fund borrows using short term rates (3 month LIBOR for example), without an interest rate floor, then the cost of those borrowings is likely to increase. That will impact the Net Interest for the CEF (Total Interest minus Cost of Funds).

For most funds that will have a very small impact on what can be distributed, as it will likely only be 0.25% and only on the amount of money borrowed (typically 25% to 33% of the funds size). I anticipate that cost will be around 0.1% in the first quarter of next year for most funds, which is small relative to dividend yields and current discounts to NAV.

So while the direct cost of increased borrowing costs is real, it is small relative to current dividend yields and NAVs for many funds. MHY, which does not use leverage, has a 9.5% dividend yield and 15.6% discount.

Leverage does amplify price moves in the underlying asset classes, but that is ongoing and has nothing to do with a change in rates. It also works in both directions, so any price increases in the underlying assets will also be impacted. Whether or not bond prices will increase or decrease from here is unknown, the impact of leverage on the return of the underlying assets cannot be ignored and bond prices could drop further, but the current discount to NAV can be a large offset over time.

Asset Quality

Much has been made about the difficulty in valuing and trading bonds. While that is true it can be overstated. According to TRACE data, the market has been averaging over $15 billion of investment grade bond trading on a daily basis for the past month. High Yield volumes are much smaller but not insignificant.

I like to look at the ETF’s to judge how “well” a market is trading. If a market is out of favor or very difficult to value, I would expect the ETF for that market to be trading at a discount to NAV.

But that is not currently the case as the ETF’s for Municipal Bonds, Investment Grade Bonds, and High Yield Bonds are all trading at a premium to NAV.

Asset Class ETF Premium
Municipal Bonds MUB 0.2%
Investment Grade LQD 0.0%
High Yield HYG 0.5%
High Yield JNK 0.5%
Leveraged Loans BKLN -0.2%

That premium to NAV should ease concerns that the asset class is “for sale”. In fact the difference in the high yield market, where many of the CEFS trading at the largest discount to NAV invest versus the ETF’s trading at a premium is striking.

Leveraged loans, which also have many CEFS, are a bit more concerning as the main ETF for that market continues to trade at a discount to NAV and experience outflows.

Tax Loss Harvesting

This can be a valid strategy, particularly if coupled with buying a similarly discounted CEF – to capture the tax loss without creating a wash sale issue (please talk to your accountant for any tax related issues).

That could be causing some selling pressure but that tends to dissipate as we near year end. Furthermore, we often see new allocations to fixed income in the first part of the year where investors tend to “annualize” the yield they can receive – not a strategy I condone as I believe fixed income should be managed throughout the year, but it is a flow that tends to occur with regularity so I would not want to ignore that.

So this is a real issue, but a temporary one that should be nearing the end of this year’s flows.

Manager Buying

As we near year end, we could see some managers buy back shares of some of their most heavily discounted CEFS. I have spoken to several managers of CEFS and they all tend to start buying back shares to support prices in the 15% to 18% discount range (some types of funds start earlier). Managers do not like their funds to experience high discounts to NAV for prolonged periods as they feel it can reflect poorly on the manager.

So we are nearing levels on many funds, where another possible source of capital inflows could enter the market, supporting the trading price versus NAV.

Are CEFS the Doorbuster of the Market?

There remains a lot of risk in the bond market, but good managers can find value, and while we have all been trained to buy what retailers “discount” so far, we generally have the opposite tendency when it comes to markets. The discount to NAV for many represents fear, rather than the impulse to get a good deal.

For myself, I am not sure that the pain is over in the bond market, but well managed CEFS trading at a deep discount to NAV is interesting, especially when so many of the reasons we are seeing that phenomenon can be explained away.

Disclaimer: The content provided is property of Peter Tchir and any views or opinions expressed herein are those solely of Peter Tchir. This information is for educational and/or entertainment purposes only, so use this information at your own risk. Peter Tchir is not a broker-dealer, legal advisor, tax advisor, accounting advisor or investment advisor of any kind, and does not recommend or advise on the suitability of any trade or investment, nor provide legal, tax or any other investment advice.

NOV 29, 2015 @ 09:30 AM

Peter Tchir

Barron’s




Muni Volume Dips 21.6% in 3rd Month of Decline.

Municipal bond volume fell for a third straight month in November, as refundings declined by more than one-third from the same month last year.

Long-term muni bond issuance declined by 21.6% to $23.19 billion in 834 issues from $29.56 billion in 995 issues during the same period last year, according to Thomson Reuters data. The last November with lower volume was in 2000, when the monthly issuance totaled $19.80 billion.

“I am not totally surprised by the decline but a little surprised by the magnitude,” said Dan Heckman, senior fixed income strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “It is playing out how we thought, all in and all. This trend will continue and will make for continued outperformance for munis.”

The drop is “evidence of the volatility in the overall market,” said Natalie Cohen, managing director at Wells Fargo Securities, who noted that Federal Reserve policymakers have continued to put off raising interest rates from historic lows. “At the end of August, there was a major equity drop and a rally in municipals,” she said. “Since then we have been very bouncy. After the rates didn’t rise, it took some time until we starting seeing issuance again.”

Refundings have now declined in four of the past five months, plunging 39.5% to $7.42 billion in 319 deals in November from $12.26 billion in 444 deals a year earlier.

“Refundings have fallen off a cliff and it is getting more and more challenging with how much refunding has taken place, there is not much left to refund,” Heckman said. “We are not issuing enough to keep up with number of bonds that have been called.”

New money issuance slipped 1.7% to $11.93 billion in 449 transactions from $12.13 billion in 473 transactions a year earlier.

Issuance of revenue bonds fell 17.1% to $14.22 billion, while general obligation bond sales dropped 27.7% to $8.97 billion.

Negotiated deals were down 15.3% to $17.43 billion and competitive sales decreased by 26.8% to $5.62 billion.

Taxable bond volume was 22.7% lower to $1.69 billion from $2.19 billion, while tax-exempt issuance declined by 24% to $20.42 billion. Minimum tax bonds more than doubled to $1.08 billion from $508 million.

Bond insurance broke a three-month streak of decreases, as the par amount of deals with guarantees improved by 16.8% to $2.09 billion in 121 deals from $1.79 billion in 147 deals in November 2014.

Cities and towns saw an increase of 49.4% increase to $4.37 billion in 224 transactions from $2.92 billion in 254 transactions, while state governments, state agencies, counties and parishes, districts, local authorities, colleges and universities and direct issuers all saw decreases and hefty declines at that.

“When it comes to cities and towns, that’s a reflection of some of the large borrows doing refundings in the month and a reflection of infrastructure that state and local governments are doing what they need to do. The logic is there with the rates being low so they are saying ‘let’s get it done’,” Cohen said.

Cohen also said that while large deals by the likes of Industry City, Calif., Los Angeles municipal development corporation, Miami-beach and Anchorage had an effect, the system for bringing deals to market is more complex for cities and towns than it is for revenue bonds. The combination of delayed deals and new ones coming to market all at once could be another reason why issuance by cities and towns improved, she said.

The sectors were evenly split this month, with five seeing increases and five seeing decreases. The education, electric power, environmental facilities, housing and public facilities sectors gained.

“One of the bigger questions is why there isn’t more borrowing. The rates are low and we need infrastructure. but there has been this overhang of people saying ‘I can’t raise taxes’ but there was some change in that recently and you could see that in the local elections,” said Cohen.

Both the housing and public facilities sectors saw gains despite having a lower number of transactions, compared with November 2014. Housing transactions increased 23.7% to $1.19 billion in 35 deals from $967 million in 44 deals while public facilities issuance jumped up 46% to $1.65 billion in 49 deals from $1.13 billion in 57 deals.

With only one month now left in 2015, California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania remain the top issuers for the year to date.

The Golden State kept the top spot with $52.29 billion of issuance thus far in 2015, while the Lone Star State is second with $44.63 billion. The Empire State is third with $39.15 billion, the Sunshine State came in fourth with $19.93 billion and the Keystone State ranked fifth with $16.63 billion.

While it had looked like the market was almost certain reach the $400 billion plateau for yearly issuance, it now seems less likely, as a volume total of roughly $23 billion would be needed in December.

“I am not sure we will reach the $400 billion plateau,” Heckman said. “It will be very close – the drop off in new issuance is significant.”

Heckman said his firm expects the Fed to raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points as it takes a “patient and methodical” approach to normalization.

Cohen expects issuance to reach the $400 billion mark and rates to rise in December, but says the bigger question is what will happen in the subsequent meetings in 2016.

“Will it be raise, raise raise? I think they will take it slow, raise it a little in December and wait and see from there on out,” she said. “Hopefully markets do not react dramatically. The global factor is a big one: it will be interesting to see how global events impact the market after December, once the rates are higher.”

THE BOND BUYER

BY AARON WEITZMAN

NOV 30, 2015 4:00pm ET




What’s a Fair Fare?

As transit agencies move toward income-based discounts, they still need to keep larger issues in mind.

Like so much of government, transit agencies walk a tightrope between providing a public service and not breaking the bank. Thanks to advances in smart-card technology, transit policymakers can now use income-based fare discounts to take a more nuanced approach to the public service-vs.-efficiency challenge. But the fundamental tension — and the need to focus on customer service — remains.

Nowhere is the balance between access and solvency harder to achieve than in Boston, a compact metropolitan area that relies heavily on transit. The region’s density and high cost of living must be weighed against the fragile physical condition and precarious finances of the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA). The agency owes about $9 billion in debt and interest, it faces a maintenance backlog of more than $7 billion, and it famously collapsed under the weight of this year’s brutal winter.

The MBTA’s financial problems are worse than most, but other transit agencies have the same types of challenges. According to the American Public Transportation Association, more than 70 percent of American public transit systems cut service, raised fares or did both during the Great Recession and its aftermath.

In the wake of last winter’s meltdown, the MBTA was put under the control of a Fiscal and Management Control Board (FMCB), which is contemplating fare increases that would take effect next summer. One option board members are considering is introducing low-income fare discounts to counterbalance the fare hikes.

Boston’s wouldn’t be the first transit agency to try that approach. The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency implemented a plan called Muni Lifeline in 2005, but even though 20 percent of Bay Area residents live below the poverty line, only about 6 percent of system riders participate, One reason for the limited participation could be that the discount applies only to Muni’s bus and rail services, not Bay Area Rapid Transit trains.

Seattle presents a better comparison. Under a system implemented in March, together with the system’s sixth fare hike in eight years, those with annual incomes below 200 percent of the federal poverty line ($47,700 for a family of four and $23,340 for an individual) ride for $1.50, less than half of peak fares. Local transit officials estimate that 45,000 to 100,000 eligible residents will take advantage of the discount.

Low-income discounts are also an issue in Denver. In January, bus fares will rise from $2.25 to $2.60 and a monthly pass will cost $99. Advocates there are pushing for $1.30 fares and $49 monthly passes for recipients of public assistance.

In an era of scarcity, transit agencies can’t offer discounts to large swaths of riders without recouping the money elsewhere, and government isn’t a good candidate to kick in more. A 2014 U.S. Government Accountability Office report projected that state and local government tax revenues, as a percentage of gross domestic product, won’t reach pre-Great Recession levels until 2058.

But at the same time, transportation infrastructure has no more basic purpose than to facilitate economic growth. That includes providing low-income residents with a way to get to and from their jobs and an opportunity to climb the economic ladder.

Ultimately, the fate of transit agencies’ worthy experiment with low-income fare discounts will rest on the answer to one question: Are more affluent riders willing to make up the difference by paying more, or will higher fares push them to other transportation options?

Seattle’s transit agency awaits the answer to that question. Boston and Denver may soon join the list. Whether those riders choose to stay or go provides a reminder of why customer service needs to be job one throughout the transit industry.

GOVERNING.COM

BY CHARLES CHIEPPO | DECEMBER 1, 2015




The Accounting Rules That Bankrupt Cities.

The cash-basis accounting system allows governments to make financial commitments that they won’t be able to fulfill in the future.

In November 2014, a Michigan bankruptcy judge confirmed a plan that allowed Detroit’s government to shed $7 billion in liabilities, averting a total financial collapse. One year later, however, many in Detroit are still dealing with the fallout of the massive debt reorganization.

Among the many shortchanged by the city’s bankruptcy, Detroit’s retired municipal workers have gotten a particularly raw deal. The plan imposed deep cuts in future pension and health-care benefits. Perhaps more galling, it also required retirees to pay back a decade of interest they earned on city-sponsored retirement savings accounts. These so-called clawbacks averaged nearly $50,000 per retiree. In one circumstance, a retiree returned $96,000.

These losses for retirees seem unusual, but many more like them could follow. The same accounting strategy that led Detroit to make unfulfilled promises is widely used by state and city legislators throughout the country. By using an accounting method known as cash-basis accounting, legislators project future spending without having to consider billions of dollars of long-term financial commitments, leaving many budgets balanced in name only.

It may be easiest to think in terms of personal finance. Imagine you purchase a car for $20,000 in 2015, but under a special promotion no payments are due on your bill until 2018. In what year did you incur the $20,000 bill? Most people would say 2015, the year you acquired the car. That’s the answer mandated under accrual accounting, a method of financial reporting required of all public companies by the Financial Accounting Standards Board. But many state and city legislatures disagree. They operate with the conviction that a bill is not incurred until the money leaves your bank account to pay it. So if you choose not to pay the bill for your car until 2018, for accounting purposes the bill will only appear that year.

When converted to accrual accounting, Virginia’s $50 million surplus turned into a $674.3 million deficit.
Cash-basis accounting is a recipe for fiscal disaster. State and local governments make long-term commitments for programs like employment compensation plans and public works projects. But they write their budgets on a year-to-year basis, as if starting all over again each year with fresh revenue and expenses. They leave out any revenue not received or, more importantly, any expense not incurred that year. The implications of this financial-planning decision can be immense. In 2010, Virginia reported that it had a cash-basis surplus of nearly $50 million in a budget of $34 billion. When converted to accrual accounting, the surplus turned into a $674.3 million deficit.

Government pension funds are a prime example of the kinds of expenses that state and local governments hide. When legislators announce an increase in upcoming pensions for government employees, the government amasses large new financial liabilities and makes a legally binding obligation for expenses incurred. But under cash-basis accounting, the new pension liabilities won’t show up in the budget until the government starts to pay out decades later. This is what happened in Detroit, which declared bankruptcy two years ago in large part because enormous pension and health-care payments were due and the city couldn’t pay for them.

Fearing precisely this sort of fiscal calamity, the Financial Accounting Standards Board outlawed cash-basis accounting decades ago in much of the private sector. This policy ensured that companies would understand their fiscal health before making any significant decisions involving costly long-term commitments.

The International Federation of Accountants and the Big Four accounting firms have been calling on governments to change their practices for years. They say that accrual accounting gives the public better information about its governments’ finances and, as a result, helps avoid a fate like Detroit’s. New York City, for example, made the switch in 1975 as part of its effort to avoid bankruptcy. Around the world, many governments—including some in Africa, Asia, and Latin America— are planning to shift to accrual accounting in the near future.

The shift to accrual accounting isn’t painless for new adopters. Once forced to reckon with long-term liabilities, state and city governments will likely find they have amassed much bigger deficits than they realized. Legislators may then need to cut spending and entitlements in an effort to balance their budgets.

Accrual accounting is also a far more complex method. Small municipal governments might not have enough manpower to adopt an accounting method that—beyond recording revenues received and expenses incurred as those events happen—requires projections about the budget extending in the coming years.

But states and large cities like Detroit cannot afford to ignore accrual accounting.

With budgets worth billions of dollars, their legislatures should have the expertise to handle its rigors. And by making tough budget decisions now, these governments might avoid making tougher decisions down the road.

THE ATLANTIC

JEREMY LISS

NOV 23, 2015




U.S. Public Finance Ratings Notch Three Straight Years Of Positive Performance.

The third quarter marked 12 straight quarters in which Standard & Poor’s upgraded more U.S. public finance ratings than we downgraded. In this CreditMatters TV segment, Senior Director Larry Witte explains the significance of these results and where most of the rating actions occurred.

Watch the video.

Nov. 23, 2015




Chicago Pension Ruling Seen as a Loss For Investors.

As Chicago awaits the ruling on whether Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s plan to save its retirement funds from insolvency is dead or alive, investors are already marking the fight down as a loss that will strain city coffers and boost pension costs by billions.

Conning, which oversees $11 billion of municipal bonds including Chicago debt, has encouraged investors to reduce their holdings for more than a year, and said the projected negative ruling affirms that view. Wells Fargo Asset Management, which holds $475 million of Chicago general obligations, said the market is “emotionally prepared” for the loss, and hasn’t materially changed position.

The Illinois Supreme Court is weighing whether to uphold or overturn a lower court’s July ruling that deemed the restructuring of two non-public-safety retirement funds illegal. If the overhaul is not upheld, it’s expected that the unfunded liabilities of the municipal pension fund would increase by $2 billion, according to the Civic Federation, which cited actuarial reports. Moody’s Investors Service said Nov. 10 that rejecting the pension fix could pressure Chicago’s credit quality, but has factored such a decision into its speculative-grade rating on the city that has a $20 billion pension shortfall.

“As an investor, you have to assume that the city is going to lose,” according to Matt Fabian, a partner at Concord, Massachusetts-based Municipal Market Analytics, who said the city is still a good purchase for investors seeking tax-exempt income. “The city doesn’t have many triggers left to pull.”

After shortchanging its pensions by billions over the last decade, the city enacted a plan Jan. 1 to make the laborer and municipal workers’ pensions 90 percent funded by the end of 2055. The move forces employees and the city to pay more while trimming cost-of-living increases.

Bond prices for the most-actively traded Chicago debt over the last three months have climbed since a circuit court judge struck down the pension changes in July. The city council passed a 2016 spending plan on Oct. 28 that includes a record property tax increase to fund police and fire pensions.

A portion of taxable Chicago debt that matures in January 2033 traded Nov. 20 for an average of 106 cents on the dollar to yield 6.8 percent, up from 102 cents to yield 7.2 percent on July 24, the day of the lower court’s decision.

Unions that sued to block changes say benefits cuts make the plan unconstitutional, while the city argues this will keep the funds from running out of money in the next 10 to 13 years. The justices heard oral arguments on Nov. 17 in Springfield, the state capital. Stephen Patton, the city’s lawyer, noted that most of the unions that represent the affected workers supported the changes. He sought to distinguish the fix from the state’s act in May that was found unconstitutional.

Under Consideration

“The act avoids this looming disaster for the funds and their participants by massively increasing the city’s contributions and imposing a new obligation that the city must pay each year whatever amount the funds’ actuaries determine is necessary to ensure that the funds are fully funded and that all pensions will be paid,” Patton told the justices in his opening remarks.

The case is under consideration, and a decision will come whenever the justices are prepared to release one, said Bethany Krajelis, a spokeswoman for the court. There’s no deadline or timeline on a decision, she said.
Lawyers for unions that sued argued that the changes unquestionably cut benefits, making it illegal as Illinois’s constitution bans reducing worker retirement benefits.

Market analysts including Fabian, Paul Mansour of Conning and Dan Heckman of U.S. Bank Wealth Management don’t expect much of a market reaction, unless the justices reverse the lower court’s decision in a surprise move.

Longer View

“If the city wins, you could see some positive price action just because it’s been void of victories from a financial standpoint,” Gabe Diederich of Wells said. After the win on higher property taxes rallied Chicago bonds, a positive court ruling on the pension overhaul “just shows they’re taking steps, and they’re taking steps that are being either recognized, or upheld that can get put through.”

While a favorable ruling on the municipal and laborers pensions would certainly be a positive, it doesn’t change the “long-term view” that the city still has high pension obligations that they need to cover and meet, said Mansour, who oversees funds for insurance companies.

If the court doesn’t uphold the pension changes as constitutional, that will “severely limit” how the city can manage its mounting retirement debt, said Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation, which tracks the city’s finances.

“If the courts don’t allow it to negotiate benefit changes that protect the fund, then that’s going to put additional financial pressure on already a severely strained city government,” Msall said. “It will bode ill for Chicago public schools and all other local governments throughout the state of Illinois that are challenged to meet their pension obligations.”

Bloomberg Business

by Elizabeth Campbell

November 23, 2015 — 9:00 PM PST Updated on November 24, 2015 — 5:30 AM PST




Local Free Community College Plans May Be Template for U.S.

CHICAGO — An economic engine. A jumpstart for lower-income students. A partnership with businesses to groom a workforce. The idea of free community college has been touted as all these, by President Barack Obama, Democratic presidential candidates, and some Republicans.

The idea is to curb student debt and boost employment by removing cost barriers. Educators are split on its merits, with some worrying the push could divert students away from four-year schools. And some proposals could cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars, and may still leave students with debt.

But thousands of high school graduates have just started community college for free, with the first batch enrolled in independent first-year programs in Tennessee, Chicago and soon Oregon doing so under different price tags and philosophies — offering templates of how a federal program might look and potential glitches.

“My family wasn’t going to be able to support me financially,” said 19-year-old aspiring doctor Michelle Rodriguez, who’s taking classes for free in Chicago after concluding that even with in-state tuition and a scholarship a state university would be tough. “I’m the oldest. I’m the first generation to go to college.”

Tennessee is at the forefront, with over 15,000 students enrolled in what’s characterized as a jobs program. Chicago has just under 1,000 recent graduates in its City Colleges plan, with a push toward getting students into four-year schools at a discount. Oregon is accepting applications for next fall, with as many as 10,000 applicants expected. Other states are watching and considering their own programs.

Cost is bound to be a contentious issue, especially with strapped state and municipal budgets.

The Chicago’s Star Scholarship — a signature Mayor Rahm Emanuel initiative — is the most generous. Beyond tuition, it picks up books and transportation. “All I have to worry about is ordering my books on time, getting my homework on time and studying,” Rodriguez said. The price tops $3 million for the inaugural class.

Tennessee, which this year relies on roughly $12 million from lottery funds, is a “last dollar program” — paying what federal aid doesn’t cover, with an average of $1,165 a person. Related costs are up to students. For now, Oregon has set aside $10 million, and will cover up to the average tuition of $3,500 annually per student.

Obama has floated a $60 billion nationwide plan calling for two years of free community college available to most anyone with a family income under $200,000 who can keep a 2.5 grade point average.

Republicans criticized the cost, and at least one presidential candidate, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, has said it’s a bad concept. But Republican Jeb Bush likes the general idea and has supported Tennessee Promise. Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both have proposed affordable college plans, and Sanders has introduced legislation to make four-year public universities free.

Using public dollars for such programs is relatively new. Organizers studied plans utilizing private dollars as a model. Graduates from Kalamazoo, Michigan, have had free tuition available at some public colleges for a decade. Philanthropists have run a similar Knoxville, Tennessee, fund since 2008.

Still, Democratic state Sen. Mark Hass, who pushed the Oregon Promise, had a hard time convincing his own party of benefits. He went to the economics.

“To make a business case out of it, you look at the social costs that some of those people would likely incur on the way to poverty,” he said. “A year of community college is a lot less than a lifetime on food stamps.”

GOP-led Tennessee, which has all 13 of its community colleges participating, saw an 18 percent enrollment bump at technical colleges, according to Mike Krause, executive director of Tennessee Promise.

“This is a jobs conversation,” he said.

With most students in Tennessee and Chicago just finishing their first semesters, it’s early for data on dropouts, higher degrees or job placement. Education experts, though, say the Tennessee and Oregon models could still leave students with debt.

“Students from low-income families, even when getting their tuition paid for, still have substantial shares of their cost of attendance to cover,” said Debbie Cochrane, research director at the nonprofit Institute for College Access & Success. “They’re not borrowing for tuition. They’re borrowing for costs beyond tuition.”

That organization says 69 percent of 2014 college graduates left school with outstanding student loans, which averaged $28,950.

Octavia Coaks, an 18-year-old in Chicago, said she feels lucky that her parents, a nursing assistant and railroad engineer, don’t have to borrow more.

“I have a sister in college, they’re (already) taking out loans. I don’t want to put that kind of burden on them,” said Coaks, who wants to study forensic science.

Setting the qualification parameters is one way to define the program. Unlike Obama’s plan, the state and Chicago programs are limited to recent graduates.

Tennessee has no grade requirement. Oregon will require a 2.5 average. Chicago requires a 3.0 GPA.

City Colleges of Chicago Chancellor Cheryl Hyman said that level is a signal students “have the persistence and dedication to their studies needed to succeed in college.”

Some researchers worry the program could divert students, at least initially, from four-year schools.

“Typically, students who have a 3.0 are already going to go to college,” said Sara Goldrick-Rab, a University of Wisconsin-Madison professor who studies such programs. “It doesn’t usually change who goes to college, it might change where they go.”

But many in the Chicago program say they’re trying to complete general requirements and then transfer. A dozen Chicago-area colleges say they’ll offer scholarships to Star Scholars. Chicago graduate Oscar Sanchez, 18, says he’s inspired by his older classmates in community college.

“If they’re putting that much effort, why can’t I?” he said.

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

NOV. 27, 2015, 12:25 P.M. E.S.T.




Black Friday Finds Municipal Market Offering Very Few Bargains.

Looking for a Black Friday bargain? You won’t find it in the municipal-bond market.

Benchmark 10-year munis yield about 2.1 percent, close to the lowest in a month and down from 2.22 percent two weeks ago, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rally has kept yields below those on similar-maturity Treasuries for 22 straight trading days, the longest stretch since November 2014.

With prices in the $3.7 trillion market climbing, “things become more foreboding for December” as the Federal Reserve decides mid-month whether to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, Matt Fabian and Lisa Washburn at Municipal Market Analytics wrote in a report this week. Munis are “rich and likely primed to coast into month-end, assuming little turbulence from Treasuries,” they said.

Investors use the yield ratios of AAA munis to U.S. Treasuries to gauge relative value between the two assets, both of which are assumed to be close to risk-free. Historically the figure remained below 100 percent because state and local debt offers tax-exempt interest. For the highest earners, it would take a 10-year Treasury yield of 3.7 percent to match the equivalent tax-free rate from top-rated munis. It hasn’t been that high since February 2011.

Contrary to the historical trend, the ratio has averaged above 100 percent over the last five years as investors worldwide plowed into Treasuries because they offered higher yields than some other sovereign debt. That depressed yields relative to municipal securities, which don’t typically benefit from demand outside the U.S.

Taxable Equivalent

That’s what makes this four-week stretch unusual. The 10-year AAA muni index yield of 2.1 percent compares with 2.21 percent for Treasuries due in a decade. The ratio, at 95 percent, is down from as high as 110 percent in August.

Similarly, benchmark 30-year munis yield 107 percent of those on similar maturity Treasuries, down from as high as 122 percent in April. The ratio touched 102 percent on Nov. 10, the lowest this year, Bloomberg data show.

Across all maturities, munis appear too expensive, wrote Fabian, a partner at Concord, Massachusetts-based MMA, and Washburn, a managing director. “Investors should either solicit incremental spread or be prepared for the likelihood of near‐term losses.”

Munis have outperformed in 2015 relative to other fixed-income assets. They’ve returned 2.7 percent this year, compared with 0.9 percent for Treasuries and 0.2 percent for investment-grade corporate bonds, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show.

Historical Comparison

Fixed-income assets have fluctuated this year as investors watch for when the Fed will raise interest rates from near-zero, where they’ve been since the worst of the credit-market crisis in late 2008.

The market implied probability of a Fed move in its Dec. 15-16 meetings is 74 percent, close to the highest since August, based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after liftoff, compared with the current range of zero to 0.25 percent.

Munis gained 5.5 percent in 2004, when the Fed last began raising rates, compared with 3.5 percent for Treasuries, Bank of America data show. It was a volatile year, with state and local debt losing 3.2 percent in the second quarter, the steepest three-month decline since 1994. Treasuries dropped 3.1 percent.

When the Fed looked prime to raise rates in mid-September, benchmark muni yields rose 0.1 percentage point over three weeks on bets the central bank would act.

If history repeats itself, muni-bond buyers may find better bargains if they skip Black Friday and make purchases with the last-minute holiday shoppers.

Bloomberg Business

by Brian Chappatta

November 26, 2015 — 9:00 PM PST Updated on November 27, 2015 — 5:05 AM PST




Review of GASB Standards on Nonexchange Transactions.

Post-Implementation Review Concludes GASB Standards on Nonexchange Transactions Achieve Their Purpose.

News Release.

GASB Statement 33 and 36 PIR Report.

GASB Response to FAF PIR on Statement 33 and 36.




MSRB: Muni Trading Plummets in Third Quarter.

WASHINGTON – Municipal market trading plummeted to $551 billion in the third quarter, the lowest level since at least 2005 when the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board began recording the statistics, according to the board.

The 18% drop in the total par amount traded from $672 billion in the third quarter of 2014 is one of a series of findings from the MSRB’s quarterly muni market statistics report released on Thursday. The report covers the period from July through September 2015.

The total par amount traded has steadily fallen from a peak of more than $1.8 trillion in 2007, according to the data. The largest drop occurred between the first quarter of 2008, when the amount was $1.8 trillion, and the first quarter of 2009, when the level fell to roughly $900 billion.

Matt Fabian, managing director at Municipal Market Analytics, said the decrease is mostly due to low yields and tight spreads in the market.

“The spreads are so tight that participants haven’t seen much upside in trading,” Fabian said. “In the sort of low-yield, low-supply environment that we have had, bonds have been going away in the primary market and not trading very much after.”

He added that with market participants expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the near future, it does not make sense for investors to buy bonds now when they could wait six months.

The MSRB report also shows that customer purchases of munis increased slightly in the third quarter of 2015 when compared to the same period last year. The average of 15,189 customer purchases per day is 9% higher than the roughly 13,953 customer purchases per day in last year’s third quarter. Fabian said the third quarter of 2014 was a low-point for customer purchases and that it made sense that the quarter “would be an easy target to beat.”

Retail-sized trades, roughly considered those of $100,000 or less, also increased slightly last quarter when compared to the same quarter the year before. The trades accounted for a daily average of $405 million, or 9% of all customer purchases in the past quarter. During the third quarter of 2014, the trades averaged $364 million, or 7% of all customer purchases, on a daily basis.

Puerto Rico bonds also remained some of the most actively traded bonds in the third quarter. Seven of the top 50 most actively traded bonds by par amount and six of the top 50 rated by number of trades were Puerto Rico bonds. A 2014 general obligation bond issue from the commonwealth ranked second among the par amount of trades and a 2012 GO issue ranked fourth among the number of trades.

The volume of interest rate resets also followed their multiyear trend by declining to 134,817 in the third quarter of 2015 compared to 155,182 in the third quarter of 2014. Fabian attributed the continued decline to the fact that some variable rate demand obligations were replaced by direct placements with banks.

THE BOND BUYER

BY JACK CASEY

NOV 19, 2015 3:14pm ET




GASB: On The Horizon.

The GASB plans to issue two final Statements and three proposed Statements before the end of 2015. Here’s what’s coming:

STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT POOLS

In December, the GASB is scheduled to issue final guidance on local government certain investment pools operated by governments (also known as external investment pools). This proposal is intended to address rule changes recently adopted by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that will impact the related financial reporting requirements based on a reference to those rules in current GASB literature.

Some local government investment pools function much like money market funds. Typically, those government investment funds pool the resources of participating governments and invest in various securities as permitted under state law. By pooling their cash together, participating governments benefit in a variety of ways, including economies of scale, professional management, and enhanced liquidity.

Under the SEC’s new rules that have been incorporated by reference in current GASB standards, which take effect in 2016, many of these pools and their participants are not expected to qualify for reporting investments on an amortized cost basis, which is currently allowed under the SEC’s “2a7-like” pool provisions in the standards. After deliberating comments received on the June 2015 Exposure Draft, the GASB is completing final guidance that will establish criteria for pools and pool participants to qualify for reporting investments at amortized cost.

More information on the project can be found here.

PENSIONS

The GASB plans to issue guidance related to pensions through two separate standard-setting projects:

Pensions Provided through Certain Multiple-Employer Defined Benefit Pension Plans

In December, the Board plans to issue guidance to assist governments participating in certain private-sector or federally sponsored multiple-employer defined benefit pension plans that do not have access to information required by the new GASB pension standards, which took effect this summer. Plans envisioned to be addressed by the guidance include Taft-Hartley plans and plans with similar characteristics.

Stakeholders alerted the Board that a small number of governments do not have access to the information required to comply with the new pension standards when they participate in certain private-sector or federally sponsored multiple-employer plans. To address this issue, the Board proposed in October to scope these governments out of GASB Statement 68 (Accounting and Financial Reporting for Pensions) requirements and to provide them with alternative guidance.

The forthcoming Statement will set separate standards for employers participating in certain multiple-employer pension plans that have specific characteristics. These standards will address recognition and measurement of pension expense and liabilities, note disclosures, and required supplementary information.

More information on the project can be found here.

Pension Issues

In December, the GASB expects to issue an Exposure Draft containing proposed guidance to address certain issues raised by stakeholders during the implementation of the new GASB pension standards.

The proposal addresses:

More information on the project can be found here.

ASSET RETIREMENT OBLIGATIONS

In December, the GASB is scheduled to issue an Exposure Draft containing proposed standards on asset retirement obligations (AROs) involving power plants, sewage treatment facilities, and other capital assets other than landfills.

One of the most common AROs encountered by governments involves closure and post-closure care for landfills. While existing GASB literature provides guidance for landfill AROs, it does not include guidance on AROs for other capital assets.

Through this project, the Board will establish recognition and measurement guidance for AROs relating to governmental capital assets other than landfills, which is meant to improve consistency and comparability in this area of financial reporting.

More information on the project can be found here.

FIDUCIARY ACTIVITIES

Finally, the GASB is also expected to issue an Exposure Draft in December on accounting and financial reporting for fiduciary activities.

Currently, governments are required to present financial statements regarding their fiduciary activities in their fiduciary fund financial statements. However, the concept of what constitutes fiduciary activity is not clearly defined. GASB research and inquiries from stakeholders have indicated there is diversity in practice in the current reporting of various types of fiduciary activities.

In the Board’s forthcoming Exposure Draft, the Board will propose specific criteria for when and how a government would report a fiduciary activity. The proposal will also address classification of fiduciary funds and recognition of fiduciary fund liabilities.

The Board is scheduled to issue a final Statement in late 2016.

More information on the project can be found here.




GASB: What You Need to Know - The Financial Reporting Model Reexamination.

The Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) is now considering how to improve the governmental financial reporting model—the blueprint of state and local government financial statements.

Guidance that could be impacted by this project includes Statement No. 34, Basic Financial Statements—and Management’s Discussion and Analysis—for State and Local Governments, and other related pronouncements.

Issued in 1999, Statement 34 set the contents of financial statements in place today, ushered in important innovations to general purpose external financial reporting, and made it possible to more fully assess a government’s overall financial health.

WHY DID THE GASB EMBARK ON THIS PROJECT?

Once Statement 34 was implemented, users of financial statements had access to a comprehensive, big-picture view of a government’s financial health along with information that would allow them to better assess how much it costs each year to provide services.

In recent years, reexamination of the model has become a high priority for the GASB’s primary stakeholders. The Board’s advisory group—the Governmental Accounting Standards Advisory Council—for a number of years ranked reexamination of the financial reporting model as a top priority. The Board added the topic to its slate of pre-agenda research activities in 2013.

In September 2015, the GASB decided that, based upon the results of two years of extensive research, it was important as part of its commitment to maintaining the effectiveness of its standards to reexamine the financial reporting model.

WHAT ARE POTENTIAL AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT?

While the results of the research conducted by the staff indicate that most components of the financial reporting model remain effective, they highlighted a number of areas that could be improved. The reexamination will consider several key areas of the model, including:

In conjunction with this reexamination, the Board’s efforts to develop recognition concepts for information presented in governmental funds have resumed. The GASB’s conceptual framework project on recognition, which had been put on hold pending a decision on whether the financial reporting model should be reexamined, recommenced in October.

WHAT’S AHEAD?

The overall objective of the many improvements being considered is to enhance the effectiveness of the financial reporting model in providing information essential for decision-making and assessing a government’s accountability. The project also is intended to address application issues.

One of the primary criticisms of governmental financial reports is they are not available on a timely basis. Over the course of the project, the Board will keep a keen eye out for appropriate changes to the financial reporting model that could positively impact the timeliness of government financial reports.

Depending on how the Board ultimately elects to define the project’s scope, the reexamination may continue into 2021. The Board began deliberations in October 2015 and anticipates issuing an initial due process document for public comment and feedback by the end of 2016.

As always, sharing your views with the Board will be a critical element of a successful outcome in this process.




GASB: Approaching Effective Dates.

Below is a listing of the upcoming effective dates for guidance issued by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board.

Effective Date Statement
Fiscal years beginning after June 15, 2015
  • Statement No. 72, Fair Value Measurement and Application
  • Statement No. 73, Accounting and Financial Reporting for Pensions and Related Assets That Are Not within the Scope of GASB Statement 68, and Amendments to Certain Provisions of GASB Statements 67 and 68 (provisions related to accumulated assets and amendments to Statements 67 and 68)
  • Statement No. 76, The Hierarchy of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles for State and Local Governments
Fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2015
  • Statement No. 77, Tax Abatement Disclosures

 




Study Predicts Increasing Use of P3S to Meet Transportation Needs.

The transportation landscape is likely to change dramatically over the next five to 15 years in response to technological advances, changing driver demographics and continuing uncertainty over how much federal support will be available for road construction, a new study conducted by the National League of Cities indicates. These developments are likely to influence how cities, states and even the federal government finance, build and maintain large public transportation projects, the study, “City of the Future: Technology & Mobility,” released Nov. 6, indicates.

New approaches to funding and conducting these projects will be necessary as a continuing decrease in the number of drivers on the nation’s roadways, coupled with increased fuel efficiency, further reduce the amount of gas tax revenue that is funneled into the Highway Trust Fund. Still, an analysis of city and regional transportation planning documents from 68 large communities nationwide indicates that half of these plans include recommendations for new highway construction.

As a result, states will increasingly turn to public-private partnerships to fund major road projects, including toll roads, parking structures and other types of infrastructure “that fall outside the traditional purview of city management,” the study predicts. One example is the Chicago Regional Environmental and Transportation Efficiency program, through which federal, city and state agencies, Amtrak and six private freight railroads are making improvements to the regional rail system to increase Chicago’s rail capacity and ease congestion.

States and the federal government are also likely to consider establishing infrastructure banks (I-banks), which “typically consist of revolving investment funds that can provide fiscal support to different types of infrastructure projects within the state” to meet transportation infrastructure needs. “Currently, 32 states and Puerto Rico have established some variation of a state I-bank and some states that do not have them, such as Connecticut and Maryland, are considering them,” the report states.

The report also presages a rise in the number of cities that adopt “paid road models”— user fees — to pay for such projects. Oregon started a pilot system in July that charges drivers for vehicle miles traveled and will test various collection mechanisms and Washington, Nevada, Minnesota, California and university transportation centers are exploring their feasibility. “… [G]iven the perpetually depleted nature of the Highway Trust Fund, many more states will feel pressure to consider this model,” the report says.

States and cities can use these approaches to identify and pursue financing and expertise from private sources, reducing the need for federal support, which experts view as a positive direction for future infrastructure development.

“There is a great deal of innovation coming out of the private sector and government has started embracing it and applying it in ways that meets civic needs and goals,” Gabe Klein, who formerly headed Chicago’s and Washington, D.C.’s transportation departments, says in the report.

Klein’s comments are echoed elsewhere in the report. “Public-private partnerships have experienced a surge in popularity in the last couple of years and they will continue to become more common as success stories in this vein become more and more prevalent. Effective partnerships between the public and private sectors heed possibilities for improved service delivery, more effectively developed and maintained infrastructure and incorporation of new and innovative modes and technologies into the existing mobility network,” the report concludes.

NCPPP

By November 19, 2015




S&P: Upgrades Have Outpaced Downgrades in U.S. Public Finance for 12 Consecutive Quarters, Article Says.

SAN FRANCISCO (Standard & Poor’s) Nov. 20, 2015–The third quarter of 2015 marked 12 straight quarters in which Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services upgraded more U.S. public finance (USPF) ratings than were downgraded, making these three years the longest quarterly streak of upgrades outpacing downgrades since the first quarter of 2001, said an article published today by Standard & Poor’s, titled “U.S. Public Finance’s Positive Ratings Streak Reaches Three Years.”

“Despite the difficulties in a handful of specific sectors and isolated jurisdictions, the broad, ongoing U.S. economic recovery has generated higher fees, tax revenues, and job growth, benefiting many public finance issuers, and we expect this macroeconomic climate to last at least through early 2016,” said Standard & Poor’s analyst Larry Witte. Among the other highlights of the USPF rating changes in the third quarter:

The leading cause of the improvement in the three most active public finance categories–local government, state government, and utilities–was stronger finances, spurring 198 of 285 upgrades in those areas and 223 upgrades in USPF as a whole. Conversely, deteriorating finances–the main reason for the 71 downgrades during the quarter–affected more issues in local government, state government, and higher education than any other factor. Standard & Poor’s cited inadequate liquidity as the main cause of lowered ratings in the case of 42 downgrades.

The report is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.globalcreditportal.com and at www.spcapitaliq.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-7280 or sending an e-mail to [email protected]. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor’s public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided.

Primary Credit Analyst: Lawrence R Witte, CFA, San Francisco (1) 415-371-5037;
[email protected]

Secondary Contact: Jason M Ontko, New York (1) 212-438-2784;
[email protected]

Media Contact: John J Piecuch, New York (1) 212-438-1579;
[email protected]




DC Project May Unlock PACE Funding For Affordable Housing Across U.S.

Property-assessed clean energy (PACE) funding has typically been reserved for commercial buildings or well-off homeowners, but Washington D.C. may have just set a precedent for PACE to bring clean energy’s economic benefits to affordable housing across America.

Last week the District of Columbia’s Property Assessed Clean Energy (DC PACE) Program announced $700,000 in financing to add solar, highly efficient energy and water, and LED lighting to the Phyllis Wheatley YWCA housing complex as part of a $17 million dollar renovation.

While the project will reduce utility bills for the 100-year old community institution and ensure it remains affordable housing for at least 40 years, the larger meaning is much deeper. This investment is the first PACE financing approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) for a HUD-assisted public housing property, and could become “a model for the nation” to spread sustainability across America’s disadvantaged communities.

Continue reading.

CleanTechnica

November 13th, 2015 by Silvio Marcacci




California Launches Debt Data Website.

LOS ANGELES — California’s treasurer has launched an open data website that he says will make it easier to analyze $1.5 trillion in debt issued in the state since 1984.

State Treasurer John Chiang said during a presentation in Sacramento Monday that his aim is to empower Californians to hold the government accountable for its borrowing decisions. Chiang said he also wanted to make the information available to researchers, journalists and investors.

“I never want another Bell to happen,” Chiang said.

The treasurer was referring to the city that saw eight former city leaders prosecuted in 2014 for stealing millions from city coffers. The city also defaulted on a $30 million private activity bond to Dexia, a Belgium bank. Current city leaders reached a settlement agreement that cured the default last year by selling the property the bond had been issued to purchase.

The DebtWatch website brings the data “out of the shadows and presents it in an easy-to-use, more accessible way,” Chiang said.

The California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission has offered some of the debt data for years, but in more of a raw data format.

The new website includes debt issued by the state, local governments, cities, special districts, K-12 schools, community colleges and public universities. The cost of issuance, and bond and tax election results are also available.

A user can download raw data into a spreadsheet format or screen for a multitude of characteristics and run comparisons on debt sold by different issuers. It also allows users to create charts.

For instance, a user could compare the volume of pension obligation bonds issued by three cities during a set time frame or compare issuance costs among different issuers drilling down to costs by underwriters, bond attorneys, financial advisors and insurers.

“It allows anyone to slice and dice the data and get to the heart of the matter,” said Jan Ross, the treasurer’s chief of information technology.

The 2.8 million points of data on the website are currently constrained to what was available when the bond sale closed, and proposed debt.

The data will be updated monthly, but the information is fairly static at this point in that it only includes data through the closing of a bond deal, said Robert Berry, CDIAC’s deputy executive director.

It doesn’t contain information on how much of that debt has been paid down, what is outstanding or whether defaults have occurred.

Describing the DebtWatch website as an early 1.0 version, Chiang said issuers are not currently required to provide that information to the state. He plans to sponsor a bill that will change that, he said. If it passes, and the state is able to collect that information, it would be added to the website, he said.

The project grew out of a conversation the treasurer and others at the treasurer’s office had with investors during a trip to New York City, Chiang said.

Referring to a trio of websites Chiang launched during his eight years as controller that make information about revenue and taxes available, the investors asked him why not credit and debt?

The websites Chiang launched as controller include one that tracks public employee salaries; another that shows how tax revenues from temporary Proposition 30 tax increases are being spent; and the “By The Numbers” site that tracks revenues, expenditures, liabilities, assets, and fund balances for each city and county.

The Bond Buyer

by Keeley Webster

NOV 17, 2015 12:08pm ET




S&P 2014 U.S. Public Finance Transportation Rating Transitions and Defaults.

Although ratings in the U.S. public finance transportation sector tend to be lower than in other areas of U.S. municipal finance, the sector is among the most stable in terms of the level and number of ratings. Transportation projects financed with municipal debt help meet a variety of the nation’s critical transportation needs, even while those projects sometimes face significant exposure to economic cycles and competitive pressure from other providers of similar services. For example, a toll road could contend with non-toll roads that serve the same routes. The ratings on transportation bonds therefore reflect these two forces. Many ratings are stable, and less likely than other U.S. public finance (USPF) issues to move to Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ higher rating categories, but transportation ratings also tend to skew lower than most USPF issues, providing a greater cushion against economic and competitive pressures. Most ratings are in the ‘A’ category, while only 20% are in the ‘AA’ or ‘AAA’ category, compared with about 45% of USPF ratings overall. Reflecting the lower ratings relative to USPF as a whole, transportation ratings are more susceptible to default than other municipal bonds, although the number of actual defaults has been small.

The overall stable, but low investment-grade, ratings in the transportation sector mask significant differences among the various asset types within it. Debt ratings for assets such as airport facilities and transit facilities trended upward in recent years, despite the revenue volatility that can sometimes affect these projects. Conversely, ratings on other asset types, like toll roads and bridges, or port facilities, are generally lower than the rest of the transportation sector because revenues can be more dependent on economic factors beyond the control of issuers. Nevertheless, we see the USPF transportation sector debt as generally resilient, with a mild upward trend in overall ratings over the past 30 years, partly because the mix of ratings has changed toward more highly rated asset types such as grant-supported transactions.

Overview

Continue reading.

17-Nov-2015




Muni-Bond Deals Stage Comeback After Falling Behind Record Pace.

The $3.7 trillion municipal-bond market is about to face the biggest wave of new deals this year. It probably won’t be enough to catch up to 2010’s record year.

Even though issuers have $16.5 billion of sales set for the next 30 days, that pales in comparison to the $54 billion borrowed over the same period in 2010, when municipalities rushed to sell federally subsidized Build America Bonds before the program expired. Last week, 2015’s pace fell behind where it was five years earlier for the first time since January, with states and cities issuing $345 billion of debt through Nov. 13, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

With money flowing into municipal-bond mutual funds, the offerings should be sold without putting added pressure on prices as the Federal Reserve draws closer to raising interest rates for the first time in more than nine years, said Peter Hayes, head of munis at BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money-management company.

“There’s not going to be that pent-up issuance that we thought might come to market and severely elevate supply,” said Hayes, who manages $111 billion of munis. “It seems the market has a better overall fundamental tone coming into year-end.”

As interest rates held near half-century lows, states and cities already rushed earlier this year to refinance debt amid speculation that the Fed would tighten monetary policy in the second half of the year, Mikhail Foux, head of muni strategy at Barclays Plc, wrote in a Nov. 13 report. That led to a flood of supply in February that made it appear that sales were poised to set a record.

By September, issuance plunged to lowest monthly total since February 2014, Bloomberg data show. The reason: localities tend to put offerings on hold when the Fed appears poised to raise rates, said Vikram Rai, head of muni strategy in New York at Citigroup Inc. That could cause a similar slowdown next month ahead of the Fed’s next decision on Dec. 16, he said.

“In September we saw refunding supply drop off a cliff because none of the issuers wanted to fall on the Fed hike,” Rai said. “The hopes of a Fed hike in December have gone up, and that’s impacting refunding supply again.”

Most of this week’s biggest deals are for construction projects, not refinancing. The New Jersey Transportation Trust Fund Authority borrowed $627 million Tuesday to fund the state’s highways and bridges, while Connecticut issued $650 million of general obligations. The San Diego Unified School District is selling $450 million of voter-approved debt Wednesday to finance building improvements.

Municipal-bond yields have been volatile this year amid speculation about when the U.S. central bank will ease off the zero interest rate policy that’s been in place since the worst of the credit-market crisis in late 2008.

When the Fed opted to keep borrowing costs unchanged in mid-September, 10-year AAA muni yields plunged 0.25 percentage point in two weeks. After hovering near six-month lows in October, they climbed 0.15 percentage points in early November to as much as 2.22 percent, before easing back over the past week to 2.19 percent.

As yields edged higher, muni-bond mutual funds received cash for six straight weeks, the longest streak of inflows since March, Lipper US Fund Flows data show.

Most of December’s issuance will take place before the Fed’s Dec. 15-16 meetings, Chris Mauro, head of muni strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, wrote in a Nov. 16 report. That will make it difficult to match the average $32 billion of offerings for the month, he said.

“The Fed has introduced enough volatility to cause muni issuers, who are pretty risk-averse, to delay or defer some of their refundings,” Phil Fischer, head of muni research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York, said in a telephone interview. “It doesn’t look like we’ll get the full-fledged rush to market that we thought we’d get and the one we probably should have. But we’re still going to have a big year.”

Bloomberg Business

by Brian Chappatta

November 17, 2015 — 9:01 PM PST Updated on November 18, 2015 — 5:58 AM PST




Municipalities Pushing Out Payments Spur Balloon Debt Resurgence.

U.S. cities and school districts struggling to keep up with expenditures are increasing sales of debt that delays interest until the bonds mature, often resulting in ballooning final payments that are many times the amount originally borrowed.

Issuance of capital-appreciation bonds, known for their balloon payments due at maturity, is on pace to increase 54 percent this year to $2 billion, the largest amount since 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The surge has come as states including Texas and California, which have the highest volumes of the securities, have passed laws restricting its use because of mushrooming amount of debt and interest that must be paid when the bonds mature.

Use of the debt, also known as zero-coupon bonds, had been declining since coming under fire in recent years for letting officials postpone paying for schools, roads and other capital projects. Texas passed a law this year that limits governments to only having one-fourth of their debt in capital appreciation bonds.

“It allows local governments to borrow and shift the burden to future generations of taxpayers,” said James Quintero, director of local governance at the Texas Public Policy Foundation in Austin, which pushes for restrained taxes and spending.

Higher Payments

The risk with capital-appreciation bonds is that by delaying annual payments for principal and interest they can result in sharply higher payments when the debt matures, forcing government officials to scramble to come up with funds needed to pay bondholders. The $91 million of capital appreciation bonds sold by the Wylie Independent School District near Dallas in February will cost about $268 million when they come due in 2050.

Puerto Rico’s capital appreciation bonds threaten to saddle the commonwealth’s bond insurers, Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., with much higher liabilities then is reflected in the principal amount borrowed. Once interest is included, Ambac said its Puerto Rico exposure increases to $10.5 billion from $2.4 billion. For MBIA’s National Public Finance Guarantee Corp., it more than doubles to about $10.5 billion.

Most of the increase has come in California, where borrowing through capital-appreciation debt so far has more than doubled to $900 million this year. It’s still well under the $2.1 billion that state’s municipalities borrowed using the debt in 2007. California Governor Jerry Brown signed legislation in 2013 designed to limit use of the debt structure. That was after reports that one district that borrowed $179 million from 2008 to 2011 with capital-appreciation debt would have to repay $1.27 billion of debt service by 2051.

Tax Avoidance

Zero-coupon debt accounts for about $253 billion of the outstanding securities in the $3.7 trillion municipal market, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The debt is seen as a way around limits on tax rates and debt service that may keep borrowers providing needed capital improvements or services. In Texas, where borrowers are expected to sell about the same $700 million they did last year, a cap on the amount of property tax that can be levied for debt payments has pushed many of the fastest-growing school districts in the state to adopt the structure. It lets them borrow without collecting the property tax until earlier borrowings have been repaid.

The Wylie schools used them in response to a 173 percent increase in the number of people in the city from 2000 to 2010, making it the one of the fastest-growing suburbs in the country, said Michele Trongaard, the chief financial officer. Her district did refinance $20 million of capital-appreciation bonds to achieve a present-value savings of about $4 million in October, she said.

Texas Sales

“I understand the issues people have with it, but when you have the kind growth we did, you really don’t have any choice,” Trongaard said. “We do everything we can to get the most we can for taxpayers’ money, but sometimes you have to let your enrollment catch up with your buildings.”

Companies that rate municipal debt have been expressing concern about the increasing use of the bonds in Texas. In 2012, Fitch Ratings cut the Leander Independent School District’s rating one level to AA-, in part because of the district’s increasing reliance on capital-appreciation bonds, which slow the district’s ability to pay down its debt.

When Texas’s new law took effect, Moody’s Investors Service praised it as a “credit positive because it will deter school districts from issuing debt based on uncertain future taxable value growth projections.”

Besides limiting the amount of capital-appreciation borrowers can issue, the law limited maturities to 20 years, half 40-year terms many school districts previously used, Moody’s said.

In Texas, the Leander school district near Austin refinanced $101 million of the $114 million in capital-appreciation bonds it had outstanding in June, leaving $13 billion of the debt outstanding, said Lucas Janda, chief financial officer.

“It’s for savings for our taxpayers,” said Janda.

Bloomberg Business

by Darrell Preston

November 19, 2015 — 9:00 PM PST Updated on November 20, 2015 — 6:02 AM PST




Fitch: U.S. Military Housing Bonds Facing Longer Term Pressures.

Fitch Ratings-New York-18 November 2015: Recently announced details on personnel cuts by the U.S. Army should not affect ratings for military housing bonds for now, though they could come under pressure longer term if the force continues to shrink, according to Fitch Ratings in a new report on military housing.

This round of cuts stands to affect 30 Army installations, according to Senior Director Maura McGuigan. ‘Of the 25 bases throughout the military branches that secure Fitch rated bonds, five are on the list planned for changes,’ said McGuigan. ‘One base will gain a small amount of personnel in the plan and the other four will lose approximately 5%-6% of its respective Army military personnel.’

The prospects of prolonged military personnel cuts and the shrinking of the force is a longer term trend Fitch will keep a close eye on over time. For the time being, though, they should not affect military housing bond rating performance, which has been largely stable. Fitch has affirmed 23 military housing bonds against just two downgrades while three bonds maintain Negative Outlooks. Helping the stable outlook has been the construction of military housing which has progressed as originally planned with no project missing original initial development phase end dates.

What is likely to continue to be affected next year is the Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH), with the Department of Defense (DoD) introducing modifications to BAH designed to slow its growth. This will ultimately reduce the rental revenue stream to MHBs. ‘The fiscal 2016 proposal for the defense budget gradually slows the annual BAH increases by another 4% over the next two to three years until rates cover 95% of housing rental and utility costs,’ said McGuigan.




Fitch: Cook County, IL Budget Includes Novel Pension Funding Approach.

Fitch Ratings-New York-19 November 2015: The Cook County, IL (‘A+’/Negative Outlook) fiscal 2016 budget, which was approved by the county commission yesterday, includes an alternative pension funding mechanism that Fitch Ratings believes has the potential to advance the discussion on appropriate funding of public pensions in Illinois.

The county’s pension strategy is notable, as it includes actuarially determined funding of the pension liability, but appears to ignore the restrictions imposed by the current pension statute, leaving the county vulnerable to potential litigation from taxpayers challenging the increased payments.

Fitch will monitor these developments closely to assess the impact on long-term credit quality. The Negative Outlook incorporates Fitch’s concerns including those surrounding the county’s ability to implement an affordable plan to shore up pension funding. This plan, if it survives legal testing, could address those concerns; but if legal challenges invalidate it, the county will again become reliant upon state legislative action to improve pension funding.

County administrators drafted a pension reform proposal, which included changes to the benefit structure and actuarial funding of pensions, but were unable to gain state legislative support for passage. Structural changes to pension plans, including changes to funding, require state legislation in Illinois. The fiscal 2016 budget includes a modified version of the pension reform plan, excluding the benefit structure changes, but retaining the actuarial funding aspect. Fitch occasionally sees local governments seeking to pay more than their legally required amount, but rarely significantly more, as Cook County is doing.

Under an intergovernmental agreement between the county and the pension fund, the county contracts to make payments on an actuarial basis, using a 30 year layered amortization structure, with future payments subject to annual appropriation by the county board of commissioners. The statutory pension payment required under existing law of $195 million for fiscal 2016 is payable from a separate property tax levy dedicated to pensions. The county is planning to make an additional payment of $270.5 million in fiscal 2016 and $340 million in fiscal 2017. After that, it anticipates the amount of the additional payment will rise by a manageable 2% annually through 2046.

The additional contributions will be funded by a 1% increase in the county sales tax. With this change, the county’s portion of the 10.25% sales tax will be 1.75%. The increase will be effective Jan. 1, 2016 and is budgeted to provide $308 million in fiscal 2016 (representing eight months of collections) and $473.8 million in fiscal 2017 (full year of collections). In addition to the supplemental pension payments, the sales tax increase is budgeted to provide funding for several other priorities, including highway funding to address deferred maintenance, increased debt service costs, and pay-go technology implementation. Total general fund expenditures, net of the supplemental pension payment, are budgeted to increase by a modest 2.2%.

Contact:

Primary Analyst
Arlene Bohner
Senior Director
+1-212-908-0554
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY 10004

Secondary Analyst
Eric Friedman
Director
+1-212-908-9181

Tertiary Analyst
Shannon McCue
Director
+1-212-908-0593

Media Relations: Sandro Scenga, New York, Tel: +1 212-908-0278, Email: [email protected].

Additional information is available at ‘www.fitchratings.com’.




CUSIP Request Volume Reverses 5-Month Slump, Forecasts Surge in U.S. Corporate and Municipal Bond Issuance.

“What we’re seeing in the current CUSIP issuance numbers is a ‘dash for debt’ among U.S. corporate and municipal issuers who are looking to raise fund ahead of an interest rate increase from the Fed,” said Richard Peterson, Senior Director of Global Markets Intelligence, S&P Capital IQ. “CUSIP request volumes will be instructive as we draw closer to a rate rise, offering us an early look at how capital markets might respond in a rising rate environment.”

Read the Full Press Release.




Municipal Securities Trading Volume Falls to Lowest Level in 10 Years.

Alexandria, VA – The Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB) today released municipal market statistics for the third quarter of 2015, showing the lowest par amount traded since at least 2005, when the MSRB first began collecting real-time trade data. Total par traded of municipal securities fell 18 percent to a total of $551 billion in third quarter 2015, compared to $672 billion traded in the same period one year ago. The number of trades for the quarter, 2.33 million, is up compared to the 2.19 million trades in the third quarter of 2014.

The MSRB, which regulates the municipal market, is the official source of municipal market trading and disclosure data, and operates the free Electronic Municipal Market Access (EMMA®) website that disseminates the information in real time. The website also houses aggregate trading, disclosure and new issuance data.

Other third quarter 2015 municipal securities trading highlights:

The MSRB’s quarterly statistical summaries include aggregate market information for different types of municipal issues and trades, and the number of interest rate resets for variable rate demand obligations and auction rate securities. The data also include statistics pertaining to continuing disclosure documents received through the MSRB’s EMMA website.

The EMMA website is a centralized online database operated by the MSRB that provides free public access to official disclosure documents and trade data associated with municipal bonds. In addition to current credit rating information, the EMMA website also makes available real-time trade data and primary market and continuing disclosure documents for over one million outstanding municipal bonds, as well as current interest rate information, liquidity documents and other information for most variable rate municipal securities.

Date: November 19, 2015

Contact: Jennifer A. Galloway, Chief Communications Officer
(703) 797-6600
[email protected]




Moody's: Chicago's Possible Pension Funding Paths Examined in New Scenario Analysis.

New York, November 10, 2015 — Today, Moody’s Investors Service released a scenario analysis of the City of Chicago’s (Ba1 negative) possible pension funding paths. The scenarios incorporate the city’s recently adopted property tax increase as well as the outcomes of two key decisions pending with the State of Illinois (Baa1 negative) and the Illinois Supreme Court. The analysis indicates that, despite significantly increasing its contributions to its pension plans, Chicago’s unfunded pension liabilities could grow, at a minimum, for another ten years.

“Chicago’s statutory pension contributions will remain insufficient to arrest growth in unfunded pension liabilities for many years under each scenario,” Moody’s AVP-Analyst Matthew Butler says in the new report, “Chicago’s Pension Roadmap: A Scenario Analysis.”

The scenario that Moody’s views as having the most positive credit impact for Chicago consists of a favorable Illinois Supreme Court decision, as the city’s budget assumes, but state legislative action that does not conform to the city’s adopted plan. Senate Bill 777 has been passed by the Illinois General Assembly, but requires the governor’s approval to become law. The bill lowers Chicago’s current statutory public safety pension contributions relative to existing statute, granting the city more time to meet statutory funding targets. Without Senate Bill 777, the city’s 2016 statutory pension contribution will be much higher than the city has budgeted.

“This scenario is the most credit positive over the long term. Although it would require larger pension contributions than currently budgeted, the higher payments would achieve the slowest and least extensive growth in unfunded liabilities among the four scenarios,” Butler says.

The city’s adopted budget assumes the governor signs Senate Bill 777 and the Illinois Supreme Court reinstates PA 98-0641, the latter of which would preserve benefit reform of Municipal and Laborer pensions and reduce the plans’ risk of insolvency. While the adopted budget notably increases the city’s pension contributions relative to prior years, the amounts contributed under these assumptions could enable unfunded pension liabilities to grow for up to 20 years.

Two other scenarios assume an unfavorable ruling from the Illinois Supreme Court, which would raise the possibility of substantial cost growth for the city over the next decade, with or without Senate Bill 777.

“This would exert additional negative credit pressure on Chicago’s credit quality because it would likely remove all flexibility to reduce unfunded liabilities through benefit reform and raise the probability of plan insolvency,” Butler says.

The report is available to Moody’s subscribers here.




Fading Obamacare Gains Put Drag on 16% Hospital Muni-Bond Rally.

For municipal-bond buyers, the boost from Obamacare is waning.

Quarterly results from U.S. hospital chains such as HCA Holdings Inc. — which make more frequent disclosures than non-profit competitors — suggest financial gains from the federal law are growing more limited, according to Barclays Plc. That provides an early look at a trend that may also affect non-profit hospitals, whose municipal bonds have rallied, delivering 16 percent returns in the past two years as the providers were stuck with fewer unpaid bills.

“The effect of the Affordable Care Act is fading,” said Mikhail Foux, the head of municipal strategy at Barclays in New York. “We don’t really have any new states adopting Medicaid so you don’t have that expansion.”

The federal law has provided health-care coverage to 17.6 million Americans as a majority of states expanded access to the Medicaid program for the poor and others bought subsidized insurance. The factors that have driven that growth are now weakening: only one state, Montana, is set to expand Medicaid in 2016, while rising premiums may cause some consumers to go without or lose their policies for not paying their bills.

 

About 9.9 million people were paying for coverage purchased on the exchanges created by the law as of June 30, a decline of 300,000 from March 31, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. The U.S.
Department of Health & Human Services estimates that about 9.1 million people will be enrolled by the end of the year. The Obama administration is targeting a range of 9.4 million to 11.4 million by the end of 2016.

Mergers and acquisitions in the insurance industry — such as Anthem Inc.’s proposed purchase of Cigna Corp. — could strengthen the ability of companies to cut payments to hospitals for treatments, according to Foux.

“It’s very safe to bet that a lot of hospitals across the country are not going to see as many people getting insurance as they had expected,” said Jason McGorman, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.

Consumers may be dropping plans purchased on exchanges because they don’t cover their preferred provider, he said.

The law, which took full effect in January 2014, has been a boon to investors who hold tax-exempt bonds sold by hospitals: The securities have delivered outsized returns since then, beating a dozen other revenue-bond sectors, including toll roads, airports and utilities, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s indexes. The bonds’ prices have slipped 0.4 percent over the past month amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as December.

The potentially diminished fiscal benefits were highlighted when HCA, whose 168 hospitals make it the largest system in the U.S., reported earnings for the quarter ended Sept. 30. Uninsured admissions increased 13.6 percent from a year earlier, boosting its costs for charity care and patients without insurance by $525 million, the Nashville, Tennessee-based company said.

 

Tenet Healthcare Corp. reported charity and uninsured admissions increased 3.7 percent in the quarter. Both HCA and Tenet said the growth was coming from uninsured patients in Florida and Texas, two states that haven’t expanded their Medicaid programs.

For-profit corporations can serve as bellwethers for the industry. Unlike publicly traded hospital companies, non-profit and government-run systems aren’t required to report financial information quarterly.

Last year, an improved economy and Obamacare boosted hospital admissions and revenue. With coverage expanding, hospitals didn’t need to write off as much charity care. In 2014, their unpaid bills for treating the uninsured and those with little coverage dropped by $7.4 billion, $5 billion of which came from states that expanded Medicaid, according to a March estimate by the Obama administration.

Growing Very Rich

On Nov. 5, BBB rated tax-exempt hospital bonds — or those with the lowest investment-grade ratings — yielded 0.03 percentage point less than the index of like-rated revenue bonds, according to Barclays. That’s a shift from May 2014, when hospital debt yielded 0.15 percentage point more.

Lower-rated hospitals “got very rich,” Foux said. “I think that they’re vulnerable when we start seeing financial results.”

The spread, or extra yield, that hospitals offer over benchmark municipal debt has narrowed by more than 0.7 percentage point since early 2014, said Tom DeMarco, fixed income strategist with Fidelity Capital Markets, the trading arm of Fidelity Investments.

“That’s been a heck of a run,” he said. “I don’t think, from a relative value perspective, the sector is that compelling.”

The slowing gains from Obamacare may affect smaller hospitals the most, analysts said. That’s because they have fewer resources to invest in technology, don’t have as much clout to negotiate better prices for drugs and medical equipment and pay more to borrow.

“You’re certainly seeing more haves versus have nots,” said Emily Wadhwani, a Fitch Ratings analyst. “By a growing proportion, the have nots tend to be smaller providers.”

BloombergBusiness

by Martin Z Braun

November 12, 2015 — 9:01 PM PST Updated on November 13, 2015 — 8:05 AM PST




Junk Deals Derailed as High-Yield Muni Funds Pull in Less Cash.

The municipal-bond market is forcing high-yield borrowers to scrap their junk.

The Florida Development Finance Corp. this week postponed a $1.75 billion unrated bond sale for All Aboard Florida, a passenger railroad backed by Fortress Investment Group LLC, that underwriters have been marketing since August. A Texas agency has delayed pricing $1.4 billion of speculative debt for a methanol plant since releasing offering documents Oct. 19. And the Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority, struggling to access capital as the island staggers toward default, couldn’t lure buyers even with yields of 10 percent.

The struggle to sell the munis mirrors the slowdown in the corporate-debt market for much of the year amid signs of a weakening Chinese economy and declining commodity prices. With speculation growing that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade and Puerto Rico’s fiscal crisis escalating, the flow of money into funds that invest in the riskiest munis has slowed to $1.2 billion this year, compared with $8.8 billion in 2014, Lipper US Fund Flows data show.

“You’re not seeing a tremendous amount of money coming in and really burning a hole in people’s pockets,” said Mark Paris, who runs a $7.3 billion high-yield muni fund from New York at Invesco Ltd. He said he or a colleague visited Florida and Texas to analyze the rail and methanol offerings, though he declined to say whether he’ll buy the bonds. “Size is becoming an issue — you’re not going to have every high-yield fund in these. There are only a certain amount of bonds funds can take.”

Large junk-bond deals are rare in the $3.7 trillion municipal market, which is mostly made up of states, cities, counties and school districts at little risk of defaulting. Until Puerto Rico issued $3.5 billion of general obligations last year, the biggest speculative-grade deal was $1.2 billion.

There are only 12 open-end funds focused on high-yield munis that have more than $1 billion in assets, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Many have large stakes in investment-grade borrowers like California, which has had its credit rating raised repeatedly since the recession as its finances improved.

By contrast, All Aboard Florida’s bonds are unrated, which is an indication they’d receive a junk rating. It’s parent, Florida East Coast Industries, was ranked seven steps below investment grade by Standard & Poor’s last year. The methanol-plant bonds for OCI N.V.’s Natgasoline LLC will probably have a rank three steps below investment grade, according to David Ambler, who analyzes high-yield munis at AllianceBernstein Holding LP in New York. The Puerto Rico agency, known as Prasa, has the third-lowest mark, Caa3, from Moody’s Investors Service.

Size An Issue

“The biggest issue that’s postponing these deals is just the absolute size of each one, and they’re certainly speculative,” said Mike Petty, manager of the $1.8 billion MainStay High Yield Municipal Bond Fund. “It’ll be difficult to get that many bonds done within our space. The underwriters have been trying to get crossover interest as well.”

With Puerto Rico veering toward default, some hedge funds and distressed-debt buyers may be leery of buying more high yield munis, said Invesco’s Paris. Such investors, know as crossover buyers because they’re not limited to specific markets the way mutual funds frequently are, hold as much as a third of the island’s $70 billion of debt, according to Mikhail Foux at Barclays Plc. Puerto Rico’s bonds have slumped more than 10 percent this year.

“There’s a lack of crossover hedge fund buyers who can come in and take up the slack of what the tax-exempt buyers don’t buy, and that’s slowed down the order process,” said Paris, whose fund has gained 3.8 percent this year, beating 93 percent of its high-yield peers. “I’ve been surprised at how long people have talked about these deals.”

High-yield munis have delivered lackluster gains this year. They’ve returned 0.8 percent, about half what was seen in the broad municipal market, Barclays data show. That’s partly because of Puerto Rico, whose bonds make up at least 25 percent of the index.

Gauging Risk

The offerings that have struggled to find buyers carry more risk than typical munis.

Puerto Rico’s sewer agency, which shelved a $750 million sale, could be swept up in the commonwealth’s debt restructuring, with Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla seeking to persuade investors to accept less than they are owed. All Aboard Florida would be the first new privately run U.S. passenger railroad in more than a century, a project whose success will hinge on travelers’ willingness to abandon their cars in favor the 235-mile (378-kilometer) train line running from Orlando to Miami. The methanol plant is an effort to break into a business dominated by foreign competitors.

All Aboard Florida spokeswoman Melissa Shuffield didn’t return phone calls seeking comment. Omar Darwazah, a spokesman for OCI, didn’t respond to a phone call and e-mail seeking comment.

With interest rates near generational lows and the Federal Reserve signaling it may end its almost seven-year policy of keeping borrowing costs close to zero, investors are rightfully slow to commit to new deals, said Jim Murphy, who manages T. Rowe Price’s $3.3 billion high-yield fund from Baltimore.

“It’s that much more important to be careful when spreads are tight and rates are low like the environment we’re in,” Murphy said. “People are being really careful and that’s refreshing.”

BloombergBusiness

by Brian Chappatta

November 11, 2015 — 9:01 PM PST Updated on November 12, 2015 — 5:59 AM PST




California Bonds Lose Allure as AIG Stake Cut by Most Since 2010.

The Golden State is losing its luster to municipal-bond buyers such as American International Group Inc. and Principal Global Investors.

AIG’s California debt holdings were reduced by $764 million, or 17 percent, to $3.86 billion in the three months ended Sept. 30, the steepest quarterly decline since at least 2010, company filings show. As a result, the state makes up just 14 percent of the New York-based insurer’s $27.5 billion municipal portfolio, the smallest share in two years.

Following a five-year run when California bonds outperformed the $3.7 trillion municipal market, investors are starting to retreat: They’re demanding the highest yields in 16 months to own the state’s 10-year securities instead of benchmark debt. The shift is threatening the rally ignited by a wave of good financial news that’s led to eight upgrades to its credit rating since the end of the recession.

“We’re pretty much at the top” of the California rally, said Mark Wuensch, senior fixed-income analyst in New York at Principal Global Investors, which manages $5.3 billion in munis as the asset-management arm of Principal Financial Group. It decided against buying in California’s most recent sale. “It can’t continue to get better than this. It’s just not enough spread for institutions and even retail to get involved.”

California, the most-indebted U.S. state, with about $76 billion of general-obligation bonds, has turned its finances around since the end of the recession in 2009, thanks to the growth of technology industry, a real estate rebound and Governor Jerry Brown’s successful push for a tax increase on the highest earners.

The influx of revenue has allowed the state to put an end to once-chronic deficits, pay off debt and save ahead of the next slowdown, with California projecting that its rainy-day fund will more than double this fiscal year to $3.5 billion. That’s in stark contrast to states like Illinois, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which have been besieged by rating cuts as they struggle to balance their budgets.

In a sign of the market’s favor, California bonds traded near parity with those from AAA rated Texas as recently as August after Standard & Poor’s upgraded the Golden State to AA-, the fourth-highest rank.

Moody’s Investors Service raised it in June 2014 to an equivalent Aa3, the highest since 2001. When California sold $972 million of debt on Oct. 20, general obligations due in 10 years were priced to yield 2.14 percent, compared with 2.06 percent for an index of AAA munis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The tide has turned, with investors starting to demand higher yields relative to top-rated securities. The yield difference between 10-year California bonds and AAA munis is 0.32 percentage point, near the highest since July 2014 and up from as little as 0.17 percentage point at the start of the year, Bloomberg data show.

Jennifer Hendricks Sullivan, a spokeswoman for AIG, declined to comment on why the company reduced its California bond holdings. Overall, the company trimmed $116 million from its municipal exposure during the quarter.

Too Expensive

Principal Global Investors didn’t buy bonds in California’s October offering because they were too expensive, said Wuensch, the analyst. The Des Moines, Iowa-based company isn’t seeking additional state debt to buy, he said, though it also isn’t selling what it already owns.

Other money managers are betting the rally will resume because the recent rise in yields will draw investors, who are seeking higher returns as the market’s rates hover near five-decade lows.

“The credit story will be stable to positive, the economy is still chugging along, and the revenue growth will be there,” said Paul Brennan, a portfolio manager in Chicago at Nuveen Asset Management, which oversees about $100 billion of munis and bought some bonds in the October sale.

“Conditions are pretty favorable for potentially more tightening” because California isn’t scheduled to issue more general obligations in 2015, Brennan said.

With the state gaining financial momentum, its bond yields have held well below two like-rated states, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, leaving California debt expensive in comparison. Connecticut’s 30-year securities yield 0.59 percentage points more than top-rated debt, while Pennsylvania’s are 0.64 percentage point higher. That’s more than twice the premium demanded of California.

The upgrades that have sustained California’s rally may also be subsiding: Moody’s, S&P and Fitch Ratings all have stable outlooks on the state, indicating no changes are imminent.

“We like the story” of its improved financial situation, Wuensch said. But when it comes to the value of California bonds, “how much richer can they get?”

BloombergBusiness

by Brian Chappatta and Romy Varghese

November 9, 2015 — 9:01 PM PST Updated on November 10, 2015 — 6:38 AM PST




What America’s Biggest Counties Have in Common.

If people are willing to move long distances to an area, it’s a good sign that things there are going well.

New migration data published by the Internal Revenue Service, based on tax returns filed in 2013 and 2014, shows where Americans are moving to or from at the county level. We’ve identified the top migration flows occurring over more than 200 miles.

Nationally, domestic migration rates remain near historic lows, and when Americans do move, they generally stay within a metropolitan region. But some of the nation’s most populated counties attract large numbers of people from far away each year. For example, more than 9,800 people moved from Los Angeles County, Calif., to Clark County, Nev. (Las Vegas) — the top year-over-year migration flow over a long distance — while about 5,700 moved in the opposite direction.

Continue reading.

GOVERNING.COM

BY MIKE MACIAG | NOVEMBER 2015




Funding for Public Private Partnership Projects – of Significant Interest to Public Officials and Prime Contractors.

The success of public-private partnerships (P3s) over the past decade has demonstrated emphatically that government can collaborate successfully with private sector partners. And in the niche world of the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, these collaborations not only succeed, they are quickly growing in numbers.

Interestingly enough however, too few public officials and prime contractors who collaborate with government understand the program. Since the EB-5 Program has become a valuable alternate financing tool, it seems timely to raise the visibility and explain how it works.

Congress created the EB-5 program in 1990 “to stimulate the U.S. economy through job creation and capital investment by foreign investors.” Administered by the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, the program allows foreign nationals willing to invest $1 million in a commercial enterprise in America to acquire U.S. citizenship. The money is then made available for projects that create at least ten jobs for American workers.

Government interest in the EB-5 program has grown steadily as a result of tightening budgets and the need to launch critically-needed large public projects.

Critics say the program essentially allows foreign investors to buy their citizenship. That may be true, but the program is now more than 25 years old and while it was used primarily for commercial projects in the beginning, governmental entities are now benefitting as well. And, thousands of jobs for American workers have resulted. The Brookings Institute estimates the EB-5 program has created 85,500 full-time jobs and attracted approximately $5 billion in investments since 1990.

Unlike conventional capital providers—such as investment banks, private equity funds, REITs, life insurance companies, and pension funds—the EB-5 investor’s prime reason for investing is to secure a visa. Because these investors are highly motivated, the program provides extraordinary flexibility and attractive terms for financing projects. As long as foreign investors believe the project will allow them to qualify for the visa and safely regain their capital over time, they are often willing to accept a below-market, if not minimal, return on investment.

Financing through the EB-5 program can be used for all types of projects and capital invested has ranged from $500,000 to more than $600 million. Over the past five years, EB-5 funds have played a key role in financing several large-scale public projects, particularly in major urban areas.

Many public officials and prime contractors have become quite adept at accessing this alternative funding source. In Miami, the city’s planning and zoning commission, along with a panel of EB-5 experts, is actively involved in vetting EB-5 projects. The City has a P3 office for EB-5 projects and just announced plans to use money from Chinese investors to build affordable housing.

In Vermont, EB-5 projects are reviewed carefully before they go to market, and the state oversees transparently and ensures regulatory oversight. The fact that the state is involved provides credibility and security to cautious investors.

The city of Dallas has also been successful in launching public-private partnership projects using EB-5 funding. Some of these projects have included assisted living facilities, call centers, and multi-family apartments in the Dallas area.

The bottom line: EB-5 funds are available to governmental entities, private sector contractors and commercial developers. It is reasonable to assume that, whether entities choose to use this type of investment capital or not, the program deserves a look.

With thousands of critical projects languishing for lack of funds, the EB-5 federal program may be an attractive option. Who knows – it might even provide the impetus for the nation to begin repairing its crumbling infrastructure.

MASS TRANSIT

BY MARY SCOTT NABERS ON NOV 10, 2015

Mary Scott Nabers is president and CEO of Strategic Partnerships Inc., an Austin-based business development company specializing in government contracting and procurement consulting throughout the U.S.




The Bond Buyer Names Finalists for 14th Annual Deal of the Year Awards.

The Bond Buyer this week announced the finalists for its 14th annual Deal of the Year Awards. These issuers were honored for Deal of the Year in eight categories, revealed online Nov. 2-6 in a series of posts at BondBuyer.com.

Each category award winner is a finalist for the national Deal of the Year Award, which will be announced at a Dec. 3 ceremony at the Waldorf Astoria in New York City and posted later that evening at BondBuyer.com.

For more than a decade, the editors of The Bond Buyer have selected outstanding municipal bond transactions for recognition. The 2015 awards, which considered deals that closed between Oct. 1, 2014, and Sept. 30, 2015, drew nominations that represent the diverse range of communities and public purposes served by the municipal finance market.

“Nominees this year faced stiff competition from many eminently qualified deals,” said Michael Scarchilli, Editor in Chief of The Bond Buyer. “We chose the finalists for innovation, the ability to pull complex transactions together under challenging conditions, the ability to serve as a model for other financings, and the public purpose for which a deal’s proceeds were used.”

The finalists are:

NORTHEAST REGION

The Pennsylvania Economic Development Financing Authority’s $721.5 million Pennsylvania Rapid Bridge Replacement Project transaction, which is the biggest Private Activity Bond financing of a public-private partnership in U.S. history — and the first P3 in the U.S. to bundle multiple bridges into a single procurement. This approach is projected to save 20% on the average cost to design, construct and maintain each of the 558 bridges for 28 years.

SOUTHWEST REGION

The North Texas Tollway Authority’s strategic refinancings of more than $2 billion, which provided an opportunity for the issuer to dramatically improve its debt profile seven years after more than doubling its debt for a major expansion of its toll system. The transactions enabled NTTA to lower its maximum annual debt service to a level that brought multiple credit rating upgrades, its first since the 2008 recession.

MIDWEST REGION

The Gary/Chicago International Airport Authority’s debut issuance, a sale small in size but big in its aim to serve as a game-changer for the struggling Northwest Indiana city. The $30 million tax increment-backed airport development zone revenue bonds marked the final essential piece in the financing scheme for a $174 million runway expansion needed to meet FAA standards on wider jets and keep the airport open.

SOUTHEAST REGION

The Kentucky Economic Development Finance Authority’s $232 million public-private partnership to bring high-speed Internet to all 120 of its counties. The deal forged new territory in the P3 market as a unique, first-of-its-kind approach to broadband connectivity on a statewide basis, and was the first non-transportation P3 to use a novel tax-exempt governmental purpose bond structure that achieved full risk transfer.

FAR WEST REGION

The Regents of the University of California’s giant of a bond deal to save the system hundreds of millions of dollars. The university refunded $2.3 billion of tax-exempt debt and raised about $650 million in new money for capital projects in a series of deals notable for their size, scope and complexity. The 2015 transaction was the largest ever in the higher education sector.

NON-TRADITIONAL FINANCING

Hawaii’s $150 million sale of Green Energy Market Securitization Bonds, which took advantage of a financing structure that has been demonstrated to the market: rate reduction securitization. The debt service coverage created by that structure landed the deal triple-A ratings across the board, creating a low-cost pool of capital that can be used to issue loans to fund distributed solar and other green energy investments.

HEALTHCARE FINANCING

The New York and Presbyterian Hospital’s first-ever transaction in the public finance market, a $750 million issuance of taxable bonds. This was the first time a hospital with Federal Housing Administration-insured debt had issued unsecured, rated debt in the public markets. The bond issue was 2.3 times oversubscribed, receiving nearly $2 billion in orders from about 60 investors and achieved a better-than-expected yield of 4.023%.

SMALL ISSUER FINANCING

The newly-created Alamito Public Facilities Corp.’s $125 million sale to repair and rehabilitate the El Paso Housing Authority’s aging public housing. The transaction marked the largest single issuance of housing tax credits ever approved by the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs and mapped a new path toward saving public housing for El Paso’s neediest population.

The Deal of the Year gala will also include the presentation of the Freda Johnson Award for Trailblazing Women in Public Finance. This year marks the second in which the organization is honoring two public finance professionals; one from the public sector and one from the private. The 2015 honorees are New York City deputy comptroller for public finance Carol Kostik and Boston-based public finance section head at Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Glovsky and Popeo PC, Meghan Burke.

THE BOND BUYER

NOV 6, 2015




Hawkins Advisory (GASB 68)

This issue of the Advisory describes in brief the principal accounting changes resulting from GASB 68, and considers how official statement disclosure may be impacted.

Read the Advisory.




Ballard Spahr: Where We Stand on Issue Price for Tax-Exempt Bonds.

The U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) held a public hearing on the definition of issue price for tax-exempt bonds on October 28, 2015. The hearing is another step in the process of changing what issuers of tax-exempt and tax-advantaged (tax credit bonds) will need to review and consider in structuring bond issues and executing various closing documents.

Since 1993, the general rule has been that the issue price was the first price at which a substantial amount (10 percent) of the bonds was sold to the public. With respect to those maturities in a publicly marketed transaction that did not meet the 10 percent actual sales, the issuer was permitted to rely on the reasonably expected issue price. The practice under these long-standing regulations has been for issuers to rely on underwriter certificates as to the reasonable expectations of the issue price of bonds.

Beginning in 2006, the IRS started challenging the issue price of bonds by questioning whether the information provided in underwriter certificates to the issuer regarding issue price was accurate. IRS agents routinely cited pricing information from the database maintained for securities law purposes by the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board as proof that the issue price provided by the underwriter had not been correctly reported. The uncertainty caused by the IRS audits led the IRS to publish proposed regulations changing the definition of issue price. These regulations were widely criticized and then withdrawn and a new definition of issue price was re-proposed on June 24, 2015 (the 2015 Proposed Regulations). On October 28, 2015, the IRS held a hearing on the 2015 Proposed Regulations on the definition of issue price for tax-exempt bonds.

What do the Re-proposed Regulations Say About Issue Price?

The 2015 Proposed Regulations which were the subject of the public hearing generally provide the following:

All four speakers at the hearing, including Linda Schakel from Ballard Spahr, speaking on behalf of the National Association of Bond Lawyers, agreed that 2015 Proposed Regulations present a number of challenges for issuers and several issues need to be addressed to make the rules workable:

Treasury and the IRS gave no timetable for finalizing the issue price regulations. While as a technical matter an issuer could elect to apply the 2015 Proposed Regulations to bonds issued before the regulations are finalized, the unanswered questions, including those described above, may not provide the certainty as to issue price an issuer would prefer. The existing regulations from 1993, including the ability to rely on reasonable expectations, continue to apply.

Attorneys in Ballard Spahr’s Public Finance Group have participated in every kind of tax-exempt bond financing. These financings include bond issues for hospitals and health care institutions, as well as universities, colleges, and student housing.

November 9, 2015

by Linda B. Schakel, Vicky Tsilas, and Adam Harden

Copyright © 2015 by Ballard Spahr LLP.
www.ballardspahr.com
(No claim to original U.S. government material.)

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of the author and publisher.

This alert is a periodic publication of Ballard Spahr LLP and is intended to notify recipients of new developments in the law. It should not be construed as legal advice or legal opinion on any specific facts or circumstances. The contents are intended for general informational purposes only, and you are urged to consult your own attorney concerning your situation and specific legal questions you have.




Pennsylvania's Rapid Bridge Repair Project Shows Promising Early Results.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation’s (PennDOT) public-private partnership with Plenary Walsh Keystone Partners to repair 558 of the state’s rural bridges over three years is moving along at a brisk clip.

Plenary Walsh is designing, financing, replacing and maintaining the project through a 25–year agreement. The consortium is funding the work upfront and will be repaid in six installments once it meets specific project benchmarks.

Thus far, the project is moving quickly, in part because many of the bridges have similar design features. As a result, the contractors can rely on one of three basic designs and use prefabricated parts that can be altered to suit each site, officials at PennDOT and Plenary Walsh Keystone Partners said.

“Due to the similar designs, many of the bridges can be built in 75 days from closing the old one to opening the new one. For example, 496 bridges are less than 100 feet long and builders know they will use about 2,900 pre-stressed concrete beams on 417 of them over the life of the contract,” the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported Nov. 9.

“For the most part, a lot of the parts are interchangeable. It allows you to work faster once you get used to working with them,” Plenary Walsh’s public information manager, Dan Galvin, told the newspaper.

The ability to move small crews of workers efficiently from one site to another also expedites the process. Most crews consist of four to 12 workers and can shift among projects quickly if one incurs delays. Plenary Walsh has about 250 people working on the P3 throughout the state in addition to subcontractors who are rebuilding some of the bridges.

PennDOT also worked to expedite the project launch by preparing to obtain environmental and other necessary approvals for the first 87 bridges to be repaired quickly after the developer was selected, which could allow Plenary Walsh to replace many of those that need major repair or are vital to their communities in year one. Several bridges already have been repaired in as little as one to two months, project blog entries indicate.

Other counties and municipalities in the state are inquiring about this P3’s approach to bridge repair, which PennDOT is considering using for other projects.

“At PennDOT, we’re in the bridge-building business. The counties and local municipalities aren’t, so something like this might be attractive to them,” said Michael Bonini, director for the PennDOT Office of Public-Private Partnerships.

Although pleased with the progress Plenary Walsh has made to date, he hopes the pace of construction will move even faster during the next two years.

“We’re hoping there is some learning that goes on this year that leads to running even more smoothly in the future,” Bonini said.

NCPPP

November 12, 2015




Muni Bonds: Preparing for Rising Rates.

Income investors have few good options, but munis offer relative safety if rates rise. They provide attractive yields for investors in higher tax brackets.

Income investors have grown accustomed to making the best of a bad situation. Even the pros have grown weary of the will-they-or-won’t-they game regarding the Federal Reserve’s action on interest rates. Falling stocks and weak global growth only exacerbate a bad situation.

Matt Freund, chief investment officer at USAA Mutual Funds, concedes there are not many great options for income investors. Instead, he says, there are investments with acceptable levels of risk. First on his list: tax-free municipal bonds.

That’s not to say munis are terrific buys now. But high-quality munis are a good place to ride out the expected volatility in rates. Investors who stick with top-rated bonds can expect to earn a yield of around 2.4% with little credit risk. That works out to an attractive 4% tax-equivalent yield for high-income investors.

In the last month, Treasury yields have risen about 22 basis points (0.22%), while muni yields inched up just a few basis points. “Munis will be much more defensive in a rising-rate environment than Treasuries are,” says Jim Robinson, manager of Robinson Tax Advantaged Income (ticker: ROBAX), a fund made up of closed-end muni funds.

Gary Lasman, a portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management, says as Fed communications continue to indicate a slow and gradual pace of rate hikes, returns should be stable. “You’ll earn the coupon, a little less if rates rise modestly,” says Lasman. “That should be fine for investors looking for stability and tax-exempt income.”

Short-term munis will fall in price if the Fed hikes rates, says Vikram Rai, municipal strategist at Citi Research. But prices of long-term munis might rise. That’s what happened during the last period of rate hikes, from 2004 to 2006, as the yield curve flattened and long rates came down, says R.J. Gallo, who heads the muni group at Federated Investors. He believes the yield curve will flatten again, mainly because inflation risks, which drive the long end of the curve, have been muted.

IF THESE EXPERTS ARE WRONG, there’s some built-in protection: If muni yields do start to rise, retail investors may start buying more. Gallo says there is an old muni investor saying, “Retail loves a 5% coupon around par.” But this time around, he thinks a 4% coupon would bring in retail demand—not that he expects it to get that high anytime soon. Now 30-year triple-A rated munis, callable after 10 years, are issued with yields of about 3.25%.

Citi Research published a report last month arguing that individual investor portfolios are too short in maturity—where yields are lower—and investors should put more money to work at the longer end of the yield curve.

Of course, long-term munis are vulnerable if rates rise more than expected. This is a particular risk for closed-end muni funds. Funds that use leverage to boost yields have even longer durations (a measure of how much a fund could lose if interest rates rise by 1%) and also face higher borrowing costs as rates rise. To hedge against this risk, Robinson uses short positions in Treasury futures, which he calls his fund’s “value-add” since that’s hard for individual investors to do. But Robinson believes selling in muni closed-end funds will be limited because discounts are already much wider than average—now at the 7.5% level. If discounts get to 9%, he says institutional buyers typically come in.

Investor flight has been a problem for the muni market in the past, even if it doesn’t seem imminent now. Freund says muni investors should make sure they won’t be forced to sell in a downturn. While munis look good relative to most other income investments (he also thinks some high-yield bonds and dividend-raising stocks offer decent reward relative to risks), investors still need to be cognizant of the risks.

BARRON’S

By AMEY STONE

November 14, 2015




Oakland Mayor Turns to Old Playbook to Fund Raiders Stadium.

The type of municipal bonds that Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf says she is examining to pay for a new Raiders stadium are the same kind the city used in 1996 to build Mount Davis, an expansion of the Coliseum that left the city and county with millions of dollars in debt.

Municipal bond experts say “lease revenue bonds” are a form of raising revenue for public projects that could ultimately expose taxpayers to risk, because, as with any municipal bond, the debt falls back on the city if the revenue stream dries up.

But with pressure mounting to make a deal with the Raiders, Schaaf says she is contemplating lease revenue bonds as a tool to fund a new football stadium — only on the condition, she says, that taxpayers never wind up holding the bag.

If a city were to default on its municipal bond, it would see its credit rating slump — and that itself could cost taxpayers down the line when they want to borrow money for another project, said Matt Fabian, managing director of the independent research firm Municipal Market Advisors.

For taxpayers to truly be shielded, he said, it has to be clear “that there’s no connection to Oakland.”

Schaaf incorrectly insisted on Thursday that the type of bonds used for Mount Davis were general obligation bonds, but a check of records show they were indeed lease revenue bonds.

Although the mayor has steadfastly claimed she would never allow a public cent to be spent to build a new Raiders stadium, she told NFL owners Wednesday in a presentation that she was studying the use of lease revenue bonds and an incremental tax. In a statement released Friday afternoon, she said she has never changed her position against “publicly subsidizing stadium construction.”

In the same statement, she acknowledged that she is studying the lease revenue bond approach but would support it only if it “would not pose any risk to the City’s General Fund.”

Mount Davis debacle

Lease revenue bonds made up the financing scheme for Oakland’s disastrous 1996 renovation to the Coliseum’s east end, which left both the city and Alameda County saddled in debt. It was given the name Mount Davis in an allusion to Raiders then-owner Al Davis — father of current owner Mark Davis — who negotiated the reconstruction before moving the team back to Oakland from Los Angeles. Oakland had pledged to pay off the debt by selling personal seat licenses, but it overestimated the number of licenses it could sell. Both the city and county to this day pay $11 million a year for that renovation.

“I’m not going to repeat mistakes of the past,” Schaaf said, noting that the Mount Davis debt was secured by the general fund. She wants the new debt to be secured by a private entity, perhaps the Raiders themselves. Such setups helped finance new facilities for the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons and MLB’s Miami Marlins, she said.

The Falcons stadium is still under construction, and the Marlins stadium’s funding plan prompted controversy because it left Miami-Dade County on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars, according to the Miami Herald.

Schaaf told The Chronicle on Friday that she’s still analyzing these funding methods and trying to draft an iron-clad agreement that would put all the debt burden on the Raiders.

Stanford University sports economist Roger Noll says there’s no way the Raiders could pay a “plausible” rent that would cover the cost of building and operating a stadium.

Schaaf said she’s still weighing her options.

“If after the analysis I’m not satisfied, then that’s not a tool we’d use,” she said.

Fabian cited several examples of cities tethering their debt to future revenue streams and winding up in the hole, even when they had no contractual obligation to pay back investors.

He recalled a case in which the city of Vadnais Heights, Minn., financed a sports facility with lease revenue bonds, on the hope that the venue would ultimately pay for itself.

The facility tanked, and so did Vadnais Heights’ credit rating, after officials claimed the city wasn’t legally obligated to pay, Fabian said.

“Bondholders flipped out,” he said. “Vadnais Heights may never borrow again.”

Golf course fiasco

In another case, the city of Buena Vista, Va., used lease revenue bonds to build a golf course, and pledged the mortgage for Buena Vista City Hall as collateral. The golf course failed to pay for itself, Fabian said.
“So the bondholders have been trying to foreclose on City Hall for two years,” he said. “But the courts that they would use to foreclose are also inside City Hall.”

Sports facilities that aren’t privately financed tend to be bad deals for cities, and there’s no evidence they lead to economic growth, said David Berri, an economics professor at Southern Utah University.
“That’s been pretty consistently shown,” Berri said.

Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, which is financed partly by a “payment in lieu of taxes” scheme that requires the 49ers to pay $24.5 million in annual rent instead of property taxes, is a prime example of taxpayers subsidizing a private facility, said Vanderbilt University economist John Vrooman.

Raiders owner Davis, who is currently pursuing a $1.7 billion stadium in the Los Angeles suburb of Carson that the Raiders would share with the San Diego Chargers, said none of Oakland’s funding tools amount to much, since Schaaf still hasn’t unveiled a concrete plan.

“Even if we had the funding, I don’t know where it would be,” Davis said.

SFGATE

By Rachel Swan

Updated 10:31 pm, Friday, November 13, 2015

Chronicle staff writer Vic Tafur contributed to this report.

Rachel Swan is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail [email protected]




Fitch Ratings Updates Criteria for Water and Sewer Bonds: Butler Snow

On September 3, 2015(1), Fitch Ratings updated its sector-specific rating criteria for water and sewer bonds. The new report replaces Fitch’s existing rating criteria published July 31, 2013, but Fitch does not anticipate changes to existing ratings as a result of the update. The report sets forth Fitch’s four key credit rating drivers for municipal water and sewer systems and explains what Fitch refers to as the “10 Cs,” specific factors included in the key rating drivers.

The four key rating drivers, as well as the specific factors included therein, that Fitch has determined affect the credit quality of water and sewer revenue bond issuers are as follows:

1. Governance and Management: Fitch assesses the management, staff and management policies to measure a utility’s operating and fiscal health.

Crew: Management practices should seek to maximize expenditure stability by anticipating future regulatory and growth/supply demands, implementing necessary rate increases, ensuring sufficient liquidity and operating relatively free from day-to-day political interference.

2. Financial Profile: Fitch evaluates both historical and forecast financials to judge the utility’s ability to fund operating and capital needs and meet its debt obligations.

Coverage and Financial Performance (Primary indicator of a utility’s ultimate credit rating): Fitch reviews coverage of all the utility’s debt to provide a complete assessment of its ability to pay operating and debt obligations. Fitch employs a number of stress analyses and financial performance indicators.

Cash and Balance Sheet Considerations: Fitch assesses a utility’s cash and balance sheet to measure its ability to meet near-term liabilities, unforeseen hardships or difficult operating conditions.

Charges and Rate Affordability: Fitch emphasizes the importance of rate flexibility. Utilities should consider the impact of operational and capital programs on rate affordability, thus necessitating a balance between raising rates to preserve financial strength and maintaining sustainable and affordable rates. A major credit strength of municipal utilities is local control of rate-setting, free from external oversight.

3. Debt Profile: Fitch analyzes the level and structure of a utility’s debt in determining overall creditworthiness.

Capital Demands and Debt Burden: Fitch evaluates a utility’s outstanding debt on customer and per capita bases, as well as projected customer and per capita debt levels five years into the future. Fitch also evaluates the amortization of all debt payable from system revenues because it may show how much future strain will be put on a utility’s financial flexibility and borrower capacity for potential capital needs.

Covenants: Fitch views standard bond covenants as those that limit parity bond issuances to instances when historical and/or projected revenues cover 120% of annual debt service, require rate-setting annually to cover 120% of operating and debt service costs and create debt service reserve funds at the maximum levels allowed under tax law.

4. Operating Profile: Fitch evaluates the utility’s operations to ascertain the utility’s ability to provide service to its customers and generate revenues sufficient to meet its financial obligations.

Customer Growth and Concentration: Fitch views as a central component of a utility’s operating profile the level of growth of its customer base and the level of customer concentration.

Capacity: Fitch evaluates a utility’s plans to maintain existing facilities and replace aging or obsolete assets. Fitch also assess whether a water utility has adequate water supplies to meet customer demands.

Compliance with Environmental Laws and Regulation: Fitch assesses whether a utility proactively stays ahead of increased regulatory requirements. If a utility currently faces regulatory enforcement, Fitch evaluates the events that led to such action and the utility’s plans for corrective action.

Community Characteristics: Fitch analyzes the service area’s employment statistics, wealth levels, poverty rates and major employers relative to the total employment base.

Butler Snow serves as bond counsel and disclosure counsel for municipal water and sewer utilities across the country.

Footnotes

1 For greater detail on each of the factors Fitch uses to rate the creditworthiness of a municipal water and sewer utility, you can access the complete report at www.fitchratings.com.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

Last Updated: November 5 2015

Article by Michael W. Russ and Ryan L. Pratt

Butler Snow LLP




Final Report on Connecticut State Retirement Systems.

Connecticut is considering an overhaul of its largest pension system as the retiree fund careens toward insolvency. The state employee fund, SERS, has less than half of the assets it needs to meet liabilities and many believe that its generous accounting standards hide something even worse. The plan has started paying out more to retirees than it is receiving in contributions. Meanwhile, observers expect state payments to SERS to balloon to $6 billion — a third of the current state budget — by 2032. Lawmakers are now asking for some creative solutions to the problem.

On Nov. 10, the Center for Retirement Research presented its recommendations to the state. The main suggestions were to lower the plan’s assumed rate of return it uses to calculate its overall pension liabilities. Connecticut’s 8 percent return assumption is higher than the median 7.75 percent across all state pension plans. Many experts also say the past decade of slightly lower investment returns than the historical average should force plans to lower their return assumptions to at least below 7 percent so that governments and employees will put in more money now to keep the fund from running out of money. The other main recommendation is something that Gov. Dannel Malloy supports — splitting the plan in two. The pension fund would keep workers hired after 1984, who have less expensive benefits than the pre-1984 hires. The older hires’ benefits would be paid for directly out of the state’s annual budget. The split would essentially remove the unfunded liabilities from the pension plan’s overall liabilities.

The plan has received unenthusiastic reviews. The state’s treasurer has questioned the legality of the split. Pension blogger Mary Pat Campbell pointed out splitting the plan into one part that is funded and one part that isn’t (as opposed to having one big underfunded pool) won’t to make the pensions more secure. “I love these plans where the already accrued pension promises aren’t affordable right now will somehow magically become affordable in the future,” she wrote.

GOVERNING.COM

BY LIZ FARMER | NOVEMBER 13, 2015




DiNapoli Expands State Pension Fund's In-State Investment Program.

New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli today announced the creation of the $200 million New York Credit Small Business Investment Company (SBIC) Fund to provide credit financing to eligible companies and deliver attractive returns to the state pension fund.

New York’s $184.5 billion state pension fund, the third largest public pension fund in the country, is one of the first to offer credit financing through an in-state-focused fund. The new fund will be managed by Hamilton Lane. Additional investors in the SBIC fund are TD Bank, Bank of NY Mellon, HSBC Bank, Deutsche Bank and First Niagara Bank.

“The state pension fund is helping New York’s growing businesses move to the next level,” said DiNapoli. “By working with Hamilton Lane, we’ve joined with five major banks to bridge the gap between New York’s companies and the financing they need to excel. These investments are in line with our priority of generating returns for the pension fund, while helping to boost our state’s economy.”

Many banks have been reluctant to lend smaller businesses capital due to scale, efficiency and risk requirements. The SBIC fund will provide capital to businesses that are implementing growth strategies, expanding operations or transitioning ownership. The state pension fund has committed $50 million to the program, which, combined with funding from Hamilton Lane and participating banks, will deliver $200 million in debt and mezzanine financing. The program is targeted at New York companies with revenue between $5 million and $50 million. Capital for the program is leveraged by the U.S. Small Business Administration.

New York’s state pension fund is now one of few public pension funds across the country offering multiple sources of capital for in-state companies, which include credit (SBIC), equity (In-State Private Equity Investment Program) and small business loans (New York Business Development Corporation).

“Through the continued support of and partnership with State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli and the New York State Common Retirement Fund, Hamilton Lane is excited about the expansion and growth of our investment mandates,” said Hamilton Lane CIO Erik Hirsch. “We see significant, attractive opportunities to support growing businesses in the state through both equity and debt investments.”

Hamilton Lane has a long-standing relationship with the state pension fund. The firm has invested in 27 companies on behalf of the state pension fund through the In-State Private Equity Investment Program. Investments managed by Hamilton Lane’s Hudson River Co-Investment Fund include Sleepy’s and Autotask.

Companies interested in the SBIC program can contact [email protected].

About the In-State Private Equity Investment Program

The In-State Private Program partners with private equity managers investing in New York-based companies. The program provides investment returns consistent with the risk of private equity while also expanding the availability of capital for New York businesses. As of June 2015, the In-State Program has invested $820 million in 310 companies, created or supported more than 4,500 jobs, and achieved $322 million in returns for the state pension fund. There is $472 million available for new investments. Learn more about the In-State Program.

About the New York Business Development Corporation Partnership (NYBDC)

The state pension fund provides the NYBDC with funds to make loans to New York small businesses for working capital, equipment or real property. With its focus on small business lending, NYBDC can frequently offer more favorable terms than other financial lenders. To date, $362 million has been loaned to 1,082 small businesses across the state. Almost $50 million remains available. Learn more about the partnership with NYBDC.

About the New York State Common Retirement Fund (CRF)

The New York State Common Retirement Fund is the third largest public pension fund in the United States ($184.5 billion, as of March 31, 2015). The Fund holds and invests the assets of the New York State and Local Retirement System on behalf of more than one million state and local government employees and retirees and their beneficiaries. The Fund has consistently been ranked as one of the best managed and best funded plans in the nation. The Fund’s fiscal year ends March 31, 2016. Learn more about the CRF.

About Hamilton Lane

Hamilton Lane is an independent alternative investment management firm providing innovative private markets solutions to sophisticated investors around the world. The firm has been dedicated to private markets investing for more than two decades and currently has more than 250 employees operating in offices throughout the U.S., Europe, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. With more than $239 billion in total assets under management and supervision*, Hamilton Lane offers a full range of investment products and services that enable clients to participate in the private markets asset class on a global and customized basis. Learn more about Hamilton Lane.

As of September 30, 2015




Moody's: Vulnerable U.S. Public School Districts Can Experience Credit Pressure from Competition.

New York, November 11, 2015 — Some US public school districts are facing heightened fiscal pressure owing to competition over enrollment from charter schools and school-choice programs, leaving the most vulnerable districts at risk for additional revenue loss, Moody’s Investors Service says. This competition can quickly and unpredictably depress public schools’ revenues, which can lead to a “downward spiral.”

“Depending on how these competing entities are funded, the competition can represent severe credit pressure for the most vulnerable K-12 school districts,” Moody’s Assistant Vice President — Analyst Dan Seymour says in a new report on public schools, “Competition Creates ‘Downward Spiral’ for Vulnerable School Districts.”

Publicly funded, independently operated charter school revenues are often shared from the same mix of property taxes and state aid that fund area public schools. Additionally, in some states school-choice programs allow students to attend schools in other districts. In both instances, the per-pupil funding follows the participating students, depriving the original public school district of the revenue.

Charter schools and school-choice programs do not affect school districts uniformly across the country, Moody’s says. Many urban school districts with high percentages of students in charter schools, such as Cleveland Municipal School District (A2 stable) and Indianapolis Public Schools (Aa2 stable) remain highly rated. Generally, districts most reliant on state aid tied to enrollment are the most exposed.

The loss of students and revenue due to charter schools or school-choice programs can cause a downward spiral as districts react by cutting costs, which may, in turn, weaken their educational product and encourage more students to seek alternatives.

“The downward spiral happens when a district loses students to charters or school choice, then loses the revenues associated with those students,” says Seymour. “The district cuts expenditures to cope, which weakens its educational product, encouraging more students to attend schools outside the district. The loss of those students results in additional revenue loss, and the spiral continues.”

The most vulnerable school districts in Michigan (Aa1 stable) and Pennsylvania (Aa3 negative) are examples of those facing mounting credit pressures due to competition. In Michigan, the loss of revenue to charter schools and from students moving to other districts has led to 46 school district downgrades this year, while Pennsylvania’s charter schools are the primary driver of credit strain for the state’s most exposed districts, including the Philadelphia School District (Ba3 negative).

Despite these pressures, the majority of public school districts experience minimal fiscal stress due to competition, a testament to the solid nature of the sector’s institutional framework. However, the fact that charter schools operate heavily in poorer, urban areas means that competition frequently exerts itself on the districts with the weakest demographics and lowest resilience against fiscal stress.

The report is available to Moody’s subscribers here.




Equity Shortage Plagues Partnerships.

High leverage keeps pension funds out of many public-private deals

U.S. public pension funds looking to follow their peers in Canada, the U.K. and Australia into public-private infrastructure partnerships face yet another hurdle to direct investing.

The lack of infrastructure equity available through PPPs, or P3s, which in most cases are vastly debt-heavy, compounds cultural and some political hurdles that remain.

That lack of equity hinders even veteran pension fund players in infrastructure like the C$154.4 billion Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Toronto. “It’s frustrating,” said Andrew Claerhout, senior vice president at Teachers’ Infrastructure Group, the C$14 billion ($10.7 billion) infrastructure investment unit of OTPP. Ontario Teachers has participated in public-private partnerships for years, Mr. Claerhout said, “but … it’s hard for us to do. These deals are highly leveraged — as much as 95% of a partnership vs. only 5% equity. For $1 billion in the partnership, that’s $50 million in equity — that’s too small for an investor like us. There’s no way for equity to outperform our cost.”

In addition to political or legal restraints that still exist in about half of the states, U.S. public plans face other roadblocks, sources said.

“There are two limitations in the U.S. market,” said David Altshuler, partner and co-head of infrastructure and real assets at StepStone Group LP, a San Diego-based private markets consultant with $70 billion in assets under advisement. “It’s at a nascent stage in the U.S., more because of the traditional mode of financing through municipal bonds, and because of the capital structure of PPPs, transactions tend to be more debt than equity, which limits how much opportunity there is for investment.

“There are relatively few PPPs in the U.S. vs. other markets. Part of the reason is that the U.S. has had a successful bond market to finance public infrastructure. … More than half of states have passed legislation to enable PPPs, so we think interest will increase. But the other aspect is that the equity requirements tend to be on the lower side.”

Sources said they were unaware of any U.S. public pension fund doing direct investing in P3s; instead pension plans are investing through infrastructure managers in separate accounts that include the partnerships as part of their portfolios.

“These are new to the U.S.,” said Brian Budden, executive vice president of Plenary Group USA, Los Angeles, a brokerage that has been facilitating P3 deals in Canada and Australia. “Canada is 10 years ahead of the U.S. in its P3 approach. The political regime in the U.S. makes it pretty challenging to get investors there. But the market there is almost identical to Canada. We started 10 years ago buying off the underwriter, and now Canadian funds go in directly. That’s how I suspect (U.S. plans) will eventually go.”

Mr. Budden said Plenary has four large public funds waiting to invest in infrastructure equity via P3s. He would not identify the plans.

Added Thomas Robinson, senior managing director and portfolio manager, private fixed income, at Sun Life Investment Management, Toronto: “Local infrastructure investing is at an early stage in the U.S. We’re not seeing the same level of sponsorship as we are in Canada.”

For the year ended Oct. 31, 14 public-private partnerships closed in Canada with a total long-term financing value of C$3.7 billion, according to Sun Life.

That’s not to say there aren’t opportunities in the U.S. Mr. Budden pointed to the recent P3 deal in Pennsylvania to repair and reconstruct 558 bridges overseen by the state’s Department of Transportation. However, the partnership, which closed in March, included only $58 million in infrastructure equity as part of the overall $1.1 billion deal; the remaining funds came from tax-exempt private bonds ($793 million) and government payments.

Added issue

Such a dearth of equity in P3s is an added issue to other restraints to U.S. pension plans participating in direct infrastructure investing — not the least of which is the tradition of funding U.S. infrastructure work through the issuance of municipal bonds.

“The reasons it’s at an early stage include the availability of municipal bonds and the political allotment of private capital, and the difficulty faced by local institutional investors such as pension plans other than the largest ones in having the illiquidity budget and/or capability or resources to do this,” said Toby Buscombe, partner and global head of infrastructure, Mercer LLC, London. “Consequently, there’s not a lot of activity. It’s not for a lack of providers, whether infrastructure managers or brokers, but more a lack of political will.”

Canadian specialists in P3s have an advantage in looking for U.S. business because of their experience with such partnerships, sources agreed.

“Canada just happened to be an early adopter of the P3 model, and its institutional investors were early into the private placement game,” said Sid Vittal, senior infrastructure specialist at Mercer in Toronto. “Definitely, Canadian firms have been working with P3 markets for 10-plus years. Naturally, they understand the process and have that competitive advantage.”

U.S. pension funds can also follow the process that’s been successful for Canadian retirement plans, said Sun Life’s Mr. Robinson: Find the opportunities, select the most optimal kind of infrastructure available for investment — social infrastructure like roads, hospitals and courthouses, and operational infrastructure like airports and water-processing systems — and find like-minded investors.

“There’s a huge demand from the institutional market,” Mr. Robinson said. “They need to assess what’s out there. They have a big role to play to let their governments know that there’s capital available.”

Mr. Claerhout at Ontario Teachers said that more opportunities, not just for U.S. pension funds but all institutional investors, could be generated by P3s that broaden their investments beyond social infrastructure. “We’re arguing that P3s should continue but be ambitious with other investments, like toll roads, ports and other infrastructure with operating risk and the ability to generate revenue. Instead of availability payments from sponsors, you own it, and market forces determine what your return on investment is.”

PENSIONS & INVESTMENTS

BY RICK BAERT | NOVEMBER 16, 2015

This article originally appeared in the November 16, 2015 print issue as, “Equity shortage plagues partnerships”.

— Contact Rick Baert at [email protected] | @Baert_PI




Fitch Replay: Prop 39 / San Diego Unified School District.

‘AAA’ rating recently assigned to San Diego Unified School District could set a precedent for other school district ratings throughout California.

Listen to Fitch’s US Public Finance team discuss their rating of SDUSD and their opinion on Prop 39.




How Safe are Municipal Bonds from a Fed Interest Rate Hike?

Summary

The bond market (NYSEARCA:BND) is bracing for a smackdown when the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows the Fed-funds futures market is pricing in a 52% chance of a 50 basis point increase at the Fed’s Dec. 16 meeting. That’s a sharp rise from a 34% reading last week before the Fed’s policy statement. The probability gauge rises to 61% for the January meeting next year and 75% for March 2016. Intermediate and long duration bonds of all stripes will lose principal when rates rise. Municipal bonds (NYSEARCA:MUB), however, are relatively safe from a rate hike. The stars seem to be aligning in their favor. Here are five reasons why.

1. The supply of new issues will likely fall as rates rise, creating an imbalance between supply and demand.  New issue volume has been falling since June. September new issue volume was the lowest in one and half years, according to Janney Montgomery Scott’s monthly municipal bond report from October. Municipalities will likely issue less debt in a rising rate environment.

Refundings fell 38.3% in October 2015 from the year-ago period, according to RW Baird, citing Bond Buyer data. Total issuance declined from October 2014. Sept. 2015 issuance also dropped year over year.

(Robert W. Baird Municipal Bond Market Weekly, Nov. 2, 2015)

“Because so much issuance this year has been refunding of older debt due to current low rates there could be a reduction in new issuance making munis more valuable as a result of better supply/demand technicals,” says John Donovan, senior vice president of municipal trading at Drexel Hamilton in New York City. “And somewhat counterintuitively, the start of tightening could lead to lower equities and add to the demand for munis in a rotation type trade.”

Matthew Carbray, CFP®, ChFc®, a certified financial planner and partner at Carbray Staunton Financial Partners LLC in Avon, Conn., says: “With reduced new supply coming to market and the likelihood that there will be less refinancing activity on existing muni debt due to higher rates, the fundamentals for municipal bond investing look strong.”

Carbray recommends buying high-yield munis (NYSEARCA:HYMB) because spreads have widened enough to justify the credit risk in many cases.

(Janney Montgomery Scott, “Municipal Bond Market Monthly,” Oct. 6, 2015)

2. Historically municipal bonds have avoided losses in a rising interest rate environment.  It’s doubtful that longer-term rates will rise dramatically when the Fed lifts the policy rate. The yield curve will likely flatten. Long-term rates (NYSEARCA:BLV) are more sensitive to expectations of inflation, which is basically non-existent thanks to falling commodity prices. Energy prices are expected to remain low for the foreseeable future because of the fracking boom.

A primary indicator of municipal relative value is the ratio of 10-year AAA yields to like maturity Treasury yields (NYSEARCA:IEF). Janney Montgomery Scott’s graph below shows during rising interest-rate periods in the late 1980s, the mid-1990s and the mid 2000s, muni ratios fell. That means muni yields fell (as prices rose) relative to Treasuries.

“With ratios currently hovering around 100%, despite high marginal income tax rates, we see more downside bias to M/T ratios than upside likelihood,” Alan Schankel, managing director at Janney, wrote in a client note issued Sept. 17.

(Janney Montgomery Scott, “Munis in a Tightening Cycle,” Sept. 17, 2015)

3. Municipal bonds currently are trading at attractive historical levels relative to taxable bonds.  The lower the credit rating and the longer the duration, the higher the muni valuation relative to equivalent Treasuries as this chart from RW Baird shows.

Muni Index Ratios by Maturity and by Credit Rating

(Data Source: Bloomberg; Baird Municipal Bond Market Weekly Nov. 2, 2015)

“This has a very important implication for investors, as it means that despite the fact that municipal bonds’ income is tax-free – consequently, their rates should be lower. But their yields on maturities greater than 20 years are higher than those on treasury bonds,” Keith Lanton, president of Lantern Investments with $1 billion in client assets in Melville, N.Y. “Of course, the latter are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. Nevertheless, municipal bonds levels over 100% are high by historical standards.”

4. Arguably, muni bond prices have already priced in an interest rate hike because it has been anticipated for so long.  Jefferies’ team of economists and analysts used a handful of complicated models to conclude there will be a December liftoff. They project a 2% Fed funds rate at year-end 2015. They forecast the Fed funds to reach at least 3% by year-end 2016 and 3.75% or higher in late 2017.

“The rate normalization process, of course, will depend upon the economy and inflation continuing down the path toward more normal economic and inflation conditions,” Ward McCarthy, managing director and chief financial economist at Jefferies and his colleagues wrote in a client note Oct. 30. “Consequently, the projected fed funds rate in all of these models is based on the same projections for a continued decline in the unemployment rate to as low as 4.5% and a gradual rise in inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target.”

Jefferies’ model does not factor in overseas uncertainty. Crude oil prices and import prices are huge wild cards that could affect the inflation rate.

5. Knee-jerk market reactions present a chance to take advantage of volatility.  When bonds sell off, yields rise. Therefore, educated investors can swoop up higher-yielding bonds to increase income. Over the past two decades, muni yields have typically fallen from their highs. Over the long term, yields are the primary contributor to total returns than price appreciation for muni bond investors. Over the short term, income helps cushion price declines. Unless credit quality deteriorates, bond prices usually stabilize relatively quickly as the yield rises.

Franklin Templeton’s chart below shows that although prices of municipal bonds dropped in 12 out of the 24 calendar years between 1990 and 2014, the bonds’ yield income helped offset losses in price. After factoring in income, municipal bonds only saw negative total returns in four out of the 24 years.

 

(Franklin Templeton, “In the Know: Seven Myths About Municipal Bonds,” May 7, 2015)

Seeking Alpha

Robert Kane, BondView
Research analyst, municipal bonds, event-driven, macro

Nov. 5, 2015 4:48 PM ET




House Committee Approves Legislation to Classify Muni Bonds as High-Quality Liquid Assets.

Earlier today, the House Financial Services Committee voted overwhelmingly to favorably report legislation (H.R. 2209) that would allow large banks to count some of their municipal bond investments as high-quality liquid assets under federal bank liquidity standards. The legislation, which was introduced by Representative Luke Messer (R-IN), was approved by a vote of 56-1, with Democrat Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts casting the lone opposition vote.

H.R. 2209 would modify a regulation the Federal Reserve, the Department of Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) released in October 2014 to ensure that large banks hold enough liquidity to continue making payments during periods of financial stress. Under the rule, banks with at least $250 billion in assets (or $10 billion in foreign exposure on their balance sheet) must maintain a minimum liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) comprised of certain financial investments that are considered “High-Quality Liquid Assets (HQLAs).” The rule will permanently take effect on January 1, 2017.

Despite the urging of NCSHA and other advocates, the agencies did not include municipal bonds as HQLAs in the final rule. This means that large banks cannot currently use any municipal bond investments they hold towards meeting their LCR. H.R. 2209 would require that all investment-grade municipal bonds that are “liquid and readily marketable” be classified as level 2A HQLAs. This would allow banks to count such municipal bonds towards their LCR, but only at a value that is 15 percent below each investment’s market value. In addition, banks cannot use level 2 assets to account for more than 40 percent of their HQLAs. Regulators would have three months to incorporate these changes into the current regulations.

In May, the Federal Reserves issued a proposed rule that would allow some municipal bonds to be considered as HQLAs. However, the proposed rule would only apply to uninsured general obligation bonds. This means that housing bonds, and other private-activity bonds, would still not be considered HQLAs. Further, because the Federal Reserve issued this proposed rule unilaterally instead of jointly with Treasury and the FDIC, it would only apply to the large banks the Federal Reserve oversees.

H.R. 2209 has not been scheduled yet for full House of Representatives consideration.

National Council of State Housing Agencies

November 04, 2015




California Private Placement Market May Be Pivoting.

PHOENIX – The relatively opaque private placement market, which has been very strong in California, may be slowing down after years of growth and shifting from a totally bank-dominated market to a more diverse range of purchasers, market participants believe.

The line between a private placement of municipal securities and a more traditional bank loan is sometimes fuzzy and full of ambiguity over disclosure, but issuers have turned increasingly to both techniques in recent years because of the relative simplicity of dealing with only one investor or lender.

The limited disclosure requirements that apply to non-public offerings of municipal bonds, particularly to loans, make it difficult to pin down exactly how big the multi-billion dollar market is nationally or in the Golden State. Observers described evolving practices in California.

Banks have been ramping up their muni holdings, with Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation data showing that bank holdings of municipal bonds have risen from just over $270 billion in June 2013 to about $325 billion in June this year.

Banks have been attracted to the strong performance munis have provided and the better risk profile attached to municipal securities compared to other kinds of debt.

Data provided by Thomson Reuters shows that private placements of munis totaled about $24 billion in 2014, with California accounting for some $4.4 billion of that total.

That was up from just $1.8 billion nationwide in 2005, of which $277 million were in California.

As of Nov. 4, Reuters data shows that neither the nation nor California are on pace to reach last year’s levels, with California’s activity slowing more.

Total private placement volume through Nov. 4 sat at $15.4 billion nationally and at $850 million in California.

Roger Davis, a partner at Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe in San Francisco, said he and other lawyers at his firm have been involved in California private placements, sometimes as counsel to the issuer and sometimes as counsel to the purchaser of the securities.

He said such deals occur as they traditionally have, with unrated or lower-rated credits, but have also broadened to include more types of transactions and include all sectors.

“They’re occurring both where you would expect them to and replacing more traditional financing,” Davis said. “We see it in the general government area, we see it in healthcare, we see it in K-12 education.”

Davis said private placements have long been a bank-dominated market, but in his experience may be pivoting a bit away from that.

“It may be the case that there are somewhat fewer of those,” Davis said of bank direct purchases.

He said that he has seen an increasing number of purchases made by hedge and infrastructure funds.

Davis said it’s not clear from his perspective whether the direct placement market in California is losing steam.

“I can’t say that it’s shrinking or growing,” he said. “They’re still a material factor in the market. It’s hard to tell how material a factor they are.”

Several market participants discussed the California private placement market in at The Bond Buyer’s California Public Finance Conference last month in San Francisco, saying the market may have peaked a year or two ago.

Those discussions also indicated that between 15 and 20 banks are consistently active with private placements in the state.

Dmitry Semenov, vice president and commercial relationship manager at Umpqua Bank in Roseville, Calif., said he has seen a number of smaller commercial banks getting involved in the private placement market over the last couple of years.

The new competition has given issuers more access to inexpensive borrowing, but it is unclear how long that will last, Semenov said.

“They’re aggressive,” Semenov said of the new market entrants, adding that he has seen some examples of very loose covenants and a potential lack of due diligence. “Lots of cheap money.”

Semenov said that his bank is very active in the private placement market, totaling about $500 million in the last five years. Private placements are used for almost everything now, he said.

“At this point it covers pretty much the entire spectrum of issuers,” Semenov said.

Some private placements are more of a one-off from banks who generally don’t do them.

C.J. Johnson, chief financial officer at Mechanics Bank, a community bank in the San Francisco Bay Area, said his bank’s recent decision to purchase $3 million of social impact bonds in a private placement was not a normal part of Mechanics’ business.

In that deal, Richmond, Calif. is issuer of $3 million of bonds with a 0% coupon for the Richmond Community Foundation to use to acquire abandoned houses and sell them to qualified low-income homebuyers. The deal is risky, as Mechanics only gets its potential 10% annual return on its $3 million of the project is a success.

The bank gets credit under the Community Reinvestment Act, which encourages financial institutions to meet the credit needs of their communities. Regulators take a bank’s CRA performance record into account when considering an institution’s application for deposit facilities.

“I would say we’re not really active in this market at all,” Johnson said when asked about private placement activity. “It’s a little bit of a one-off.”

Johnson said the bank was motivated more by the local community angle, calling the situation “unique.”

“We’re a community bank, and this is our community,” he said of Mechanics, which has three Richmond branches.

Regulators are in the midst of trying to bring clarity to the private placement sector, where there is significant confusion and controversy.

Issuers and banks are often unsure of whether an instrument is a loan or a security subject to Securities and Exchange Commission and Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board Rules, and broker-dealer groups have said repeatedly that some municipal advisors are acting improperly as placement agents soliciting banks to participate in these types of non-public transactions.

Analysts have called for more prompt voluntary disclosure by issuers of all their debts.

The Government Finance Officers Association executive board recently approved a best practice document recommending voluntary disclosure of information on direct placements, loans, and other credit arrangements with private lenders or commercial banks.

THE BOND BUYER

BY KYLE GLAZIER

NOV 5, 2015 1:30pm ET




Kroll Firm to Expand Bond Rating Coverage.

With an infusion of new capital from a private-equity investor, Kroll hopes to double in size in the next three years.

Competition may be heating up in the credit rating business as Kroll Bond Rating Agency, armed with an infusion of new capital, expands its coverage of corporate and municipal bonds.

KBRA, which was founded by CEO Jules Kroll five years ago, has specialized in coverage of the structured finance market. Last week, it announced private-equity investor Wharf Street had acquired a majority stake, positioning it to pursue future growth and challenge the “Big Three” agencies — Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch Ratings.

“The last five years we’ve really built a name for ourselves in the structured finance market and are beginning to build a name for ourselves in municipals and financial institutions,” KBRA president Jim Nadler told Reuters. “There is a real need for research in the band from A down to BB within the corporate finance sector, where we are not currently as active.”

KBRA hopes to double in size in the next three years. “Everywhere we go, we need to prove ourselves and so far investors have been our best allies,” Kroll said.

The firm has so far published more than 600 ratings linked to over $400 billion of issuance. The “Big Three” rating agencies issue around 95% of credit ratings globally, a total unchanged since the financial crisis.

According to Kroll, KBRA’s goal is to offer deeper insight than competitors in areas where there is such a need. One possible area is airports where, Kroll said, other agencies have stuck to single-A ratings for the sector despite evidence that some airports were much more creditworthy.

Wharf Street now owns around 90% of KBRA after buying out early investors and much of Kroll’s stake.

by Matthew Heller

November 9, 2015 | CFO.com | US




A Simple (But Hard) Way for Governments to Stay Out of Pension Trouble.

Chicago’s fiscal 2016 budget is like a cautionary tale about what happens when state and local governments fail to deal with long-festering pension problems. A policy brief published in September by the libertarian Reason Foundation offers sound advice about one of the ways to avoid Chicago’s fate.

The city’s $7.8 billion spending blueprint includes an historic $543 million property-tax increase to be phased in over four years, along with fee increases and spending cuts. The fact that Mayor Rahm Emanuel would propose such a budget and that the City Council would approve it — and by a 35-15 margin — is testament to the lack of viable options in the face of a state-mandated $550 million payment to Chicago’s police and firefighter pension systems, each of which is less than 30 percent funded.

Draconian as it may seem, Chicago’s budget may not go far enough. It assumes that the Illinois Supreme Court will find the city’s 2014 pension reforms constitutional when it takes up the matter this month. It also assumes that the state will pass legislation allowing the city to spread out the mandated pension payment over a longer period.

There’s no silver bullet when it comes to helping state and local governments avoid what has happened to Chicago, but one thing that would certainly help would be for them to base their pension contributions on more realistic investment assumptions. The Reason brief proposes several options, such as tying assumed pension-fund returns to the yield on the jurisdiction’s own bonds or on the expected rates of return on municipal or high-grade corporate bond indexes.

As I have written previously, another reasonable approach would be to base assumed returns on actual long-term pension-fund returns; to avoid manipulation, the period on which historical returns are calculated should include at least two economic downturns.

Whichever approach is used, the Reason brief wisely recommends phasing in the change in anticipated returns over a period of years. A typical assumed rate of return for pension investments is around 8 percent. Cutting that to 5 or 6 percent, as one of the approaches mentioned above would likely do, would require state and local governments to significantly increase their pension contributions.

Calculating reasonable pension investment return assumptions is simple. Actually adopting them is hard because it runs contrary to human nature. Why should an elected official make painful budgetary decisions now when the benefits — or the harm from kicking the can down the road — won’t likely be felt until he or she is long out of office?

Yes, the solution is simple. The hard part is finding courageous public officials who will implement it.

GOVERNING.COM

BY CHARLES CHIEPPO | NOVEMBER 6, 2015




S&P’s Public Finance Podcast: (How Climate Change Could Affect Ratings and the Outlook for the City of Los Angeles).

In this week’s segment of Extra Credit, Managing Director Geoff Buswick discusses how climate change could affect ratings and Director Jennifer Hansen explains what’s behind our outlook on the City of Los Angeles.

Listen to the Podcast.

Nov. 6, 2015




USDA Provides $314 Million in Water and Waste Infrastructure Improvements in Rural Communities Nationwide.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 2, 2015 – USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack today announced loans and grants for 141 projects to build and improve water and wastewater infrastructure in rural communities across the nation.

“Many rural communities need to upgrade and repair their water and wastewater systems, but often lack the resources to do so,” Vilsack said. “These loans and grants will help accomplish this goal. USDA’s support for infrastructure improvements is an essential part of building strong rural economies.”

USDA is awarding $299 million for 88 projects in the Water and Waste Disposal Loan and Grant Program and $15 million for 53 grants in the Emergency Community Water Assistance Grant (ECWAG) program.

ECWAG grants enable water systems that serve eligible rural communities to prepare for, or recover from, imminent or actual emergencies that threaten the availability of safe drinking water. Water and Waste program recipients can use funds to construct water and waste facilities in rural communities.

The Big Sandy Rancheria Band of Western Mono Indians in Fresno, Calif., has been selected to receive a $494,300 ECWAG grant to drill a well and connect it and another well to the water system.

The Columbia Heights Water District in Caldwell, La., has been selected to receive a $736,000 water and waste loan to upgrade the water storage tank and related equipment at the wastewater treatment plant. The community is in an area of persistent poverty that USDA has targeted for special assistance through the StrikeForce for Rural Growth and Opportunity Initiative.

Three recipients receiving funding today were given priority points through a provision in the 2014 Farm Bill that encourages communities to adopt regional economic development plans. These projects are centered on regional collaboration and long-term growth strategies. They leverage outside resources and capitalize on a region’s unique strengths.

The recipients are the West Stewartstown (N.H.) Water Precinct, the Lowcountry Regional Water System in Hampton, S.C., and the city of Waubun, Minn. All three projects involve upgrades to water and wastewater systems. The Hampton, S.C., project is in a high-poverty area designated as a Promise Zone. In areas designated as Promise Zones, federal, state and private-sector partners work with local communities and businesses to create jobs, increase economic security, expand educational opportunities, and increase access to quality, affordable housing.

Six of the projects announced today will provide $3.9 million to benefit Native American areas. These water and waste awards include the Red Lake Band of Chippewa Indians in Minnesota and five projects in California, including Big Sandy Rancheria, two awards to the Cortina Band of Wintun Indians, the Grindstone Indian Rancheria and the Yurok Tribe.

Two projects will provide $9.1 million for colonias in New Mexico. The recipients are the Garfield Mutual Domestic Water Consumers & Mutual Sewer Works Association and the La Luz Mutual Domestic Water Association. Colonias are unincorporated, low-income, mostly Hispanic U.S. communities along the Mexico border that lack adequate housing, drinking water and wastewater infrastructure.

Since 2009, USDA has helped provide improved water and wastewater services to nearly 18 million rural residents by investing $12.3 billion in 5,174 projects.

Funding of each award announced today is contingent upon the recipient meeting the terms of the grant and loan agreement.

Here is an example of how a previously funded project has helped improve water service in a rural community. In Sparta, Tenn., antiquated equipment could not handle rainwater runoff, causing sewage to spill out of drains. In 2011, USDA provided $2.9 million to Sparta to build a new wastewater system, ending the major sewage problem.

USDA Rural Development is accepting applications for loans and grants to build rural water infrastructure. Applications may be completed online through RDAPPLY, a new electronic filing system, and at state and local Rural Development offices. Public entities (counties, townships and communities), non-profit organizations and tribal communities with a population of 10,000 or less are eligible to apply. Interest rates for this program are at historically low levels, ranging from 2 percent to 3.25 percent. Loan terms can be up to 40 years.

President Obama’s plan for rural America has brought about historic investment and resulted in stronger rural communities. Under the President’s leadership, these investments in housing, community facilities, businesses and infrastructure have empowered rural America to continue leading the way – strengthening America’s economy, small towns and rural communities.

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USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. To file a complaint of discrimination, write: USDA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Ave., SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call (866) 632-9992 (Toll-free Customer Service), (800) 877-8339 (Local or Federal relay), (866) 377-8642 (Relay voice users)




With Risks, P3s and Design-Build Seen as Beneficial to Infrastructure Planning.

At an Urban Land Institute conference last week, two panels of transportation experts – one from the public sector, the other from the private sector – discussed the issues plaguing tri-state transportation systems and the potential of public-private partnerships to address them.

“Transportation agencies are great at delivering state-of-good-repair projects, delivering normal replacement projects,” former New York State Department of Transportation Commissioner Joan McDonald said during the first panel. “I’m not so sure that transportation agencies are the entities best-suited to do some of these mega projects that are not just about transportation.”

With transportation infrastructure, a public-private partnership, or P3 agreement, is used most often in a design-build contract – design-build is a method of project-delivery in which a private contractor wins a bid to design and construct a project. Ongoing regional public-private infrastructure projects include the construction of a new Port Authority Bus Terminal and an MTA project to build a Long Island Rail Road station beneath Grand Central Terminal (known as East Side Access).

Organized by the Urban Land Institute’s New York, New Jersey and Westchester/Fairfield chapters, the forum was hosted at Shearman & Sterling’s East Midtown headquarters, drawing a crowd of around one hundred.

During the panel of current and former public officials, moderated by CityLab New York bureau chief Eric Jaffe, the speakers disagreed on the role of public-private partnerships in terms of their potential for improving transportation infrastructure.

“The bigger you get, when you have many more stakeholders, many more local zoning laws, then it becomes more difficult,” Steve Santoro, New Jersey Transit’s assistant executive director of capital planning, said of expansive P3 projects.

All agreed, however, that area transportation infrastructure is in a state of crisis.

“The term ‘transportation Armageddon’ has been used,” Jaffe said, referring to Senator Chuck Schumer’s remarks about the potential results of the damaged Hudson River tunnels. If the existing New York-to-New Jersey tunnels close – a plausible scenario given their age, deterioration and the fact that they have reached current capacity – it would be disastrous for commuters and the regional economy.

In remarks after the panel, Drew Galloway, Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor chief of planning and performance expressed openness to working with a private sector contractor on the Gateway Project, a proposed high-speed rail corridor planned to help solve a potential crisis with the tunnels, which are used by NJTransit and Amtrak and bring many commuters into New York City.

“We absolutely intend to consider [public-private partnerships] and will welcome the proposals as it goes forward,” Galloway told Politico New York.

After the conference’s 15-minute networking break, the private sector panel convened to discuss the best P3 business practices globally, as well as the potential hazards and benefits of P3s.

“You have competition among entities of the private sector to come up with the best and most cost-effective design,” Karen Hedlund, national P3 advisor for Parsons Brinckerhoff, said at the panel, which was moderated by Urban Land Institute’s senior vice president, Rachel MacCleery.

For underfunded tri-state transportation agencies, design-build can be an attractive method of cutting project costs. As Mike Parker, of Ernst & Young Infrastructure Advisors, LLC, pointed out, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey estimated that it saved ten percent by using a P3 for the Goethals Bridge reconstruction versus a public plan.

In the case of Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor, Hedlund explained, its dire need for infrastructure repair may repel potential private partners.

“Would they be willing to accept the cost of bringing the Northeast Corridor up to a state-of-good-repair?” Hedlund asked. “It’s a much more complicated question than sometimes some politicians would like you to believe.”

Last year, P3s, especially as design-build, were recommended by the MTA Transportation Reinvention Commission, a team of 24 local, regional, and international transportation experts. In July, New York State Budget Director Mary Beth Labate again endorsed their use in a letter to MTA Chair Thomas Prendergast, calling design-build and other P3 tools a means of reducing the agency’s capital program costs and achieving “faster project delivery.”

Certainly, the MTA needs faster project delivery – a recent report by the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC), a nonpartisan watchdog group, estimated that MTA repair and upgrade projects will be finished by 2067 at their current rate. The Second Avenue Subway extension is notoriously behind schedule and beyond budget.

But though public-private partnerships are recommended for MTA repair projects, the CBC report warns that a “P3 can leave public agencies at risk when private parties fail to perform adequately,” as they did in the early 2000s with a London Underground repair project.

“The London experience showed that there’s some problems with P3s that dealt with a lot of maintaining existing assets and bringing existing infrastructure up to a state-of-good-repair,” Jamison Dague, the report’s author, told Gotham Gazette. “And that’s not to say that you can’t have a P3 that does those things successfully, but that was one challenge that they saw there.”

Meanwhile, design-build contracts for New York infrastructure, Dague added, have proven successful in the past. The newly approved (and controversial) MTA five-year capital plan was reduced by billions of dollars after the agency accounted for increased use of design-build and other cost-saving strategies.

From a policy standpoint, measures can be taken to prevent private sector malfeasance when engaging companies in major infrastructure projects. In his remarks, Galloway emphasized the need for transportation officials to independently estimate a project’s cost before private sector involvement.

“Otherwise, they will price their own investment in such a way to cover that risk,” Galloway said. “And you very quickly lose some of the advantages that you would otherwise see in a public-private partnership.”

Transportation officials and others have suggested oversight mechanisms as a means of preventing similar problems before. Independent evaluation of projects before private-sector involvement was recommended by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli in a 2013 report, which also calls for the creation of an oversight entity for public-partnership agreements and other changes to the state’s P3 policies.

Jaffe mentioned the ongoing concern: “The fear is always that in the long run, the public will end up paying more than they said they would pay up front.”

***

by Ryan Brady, Gotham Gazette

Nov 04, 2015

@GothamGazette




Experts Offer Strategies for Educating Stakeholders, Public on Benefits of P3s.

Never underestimate the importance of educating key stakeholders and the public about the benefits of using public-private partnerships to develop social infrastructure both before and after project launch. Failure to convey the advantages of P3s to those who will be affected by such projects could lead to pressure on public agencies to reject this procurement method in the future. This message was delivered repeatedly by a broad range of successful P3 partners during NCPPP’s second annual P3s for Public Buildings Summit, Oct. 22-23 in Washington, D.C.

The list of people who should be educated thoroughly on the advantages of P3 procurement is extensive. It includes investors, public agencies, local and state residents, legislators and the media. It equally is important to engage with individuals and organizations located near the project, unions and local contractors, session participants stressed.

All descriptions of P3s also should simply and thoroughly define the procurement method, which often is poorly understood, these experts added. Confusion over what P3s are abounds even in Canada, where unlike the United States, they are used to build a range of public buildings, including schools and hospitals.

“When we talk about P3s, we’re not talking about privatization. The government owns, controls and is accountable for that asset. But we also have to dispel the notion many government officials have that P3s don’t involve any government funding. They don’t know what private financing means. We have a saying: ‘P3 — not P-free,’” said Mark Romoff, president and CEO of the Canadian Council for Public-Private Partnerships, who moderated a session on how to garner community and stakeholder support for P3.

He described other myths that surround P3s in Canada, such as the assumption that unions universally distrust them. “Several large unions, such as Laborers’ International, are part of a P3 group and all of the collective bargaining agreements we have negotiated with them are observed,” he explained.

Romoff also stressed the importance of publicizing the beneficial effects P3s have on people’s quality of life. “It’s not enough to keep saying that a project has been completed on time and under budget. Tell a story simply and connect emotionally. You’ll make more headway.”

The highly successful Long Beach, Calif. courthouse P3 is a case in point, recounted Stephen Reinstein, director of integrated delivery at AECOM and former CEO of Long Beach Judicial Partners. “Judges’ complaints about the poor condition of the facilities they’d been working in didn’t make a difference. What was compelling was hearing about someone who had a heart attack and died on the sixth floor because the elevators weren’t working,” he said.

Reinstein also stressed the importance of attracting support from public officials at various levels of government for such projects. Then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who sent aides to Canada to study its P3 procurement models, endorsed the courthouse project, as did officials at the county and city levels, in part because the new construction was seen as the first step in rehabilitating a blighted neighborhood.

The developers also heeded the concerns expressed by influential members of the community in designing the project. When administrators at a nearby school questioned the safety of having a courthouse next door, developers promised that no doors would be built on the side of the building that faced the school, which eased the school officials’ misgivings, reported Reinstein.

“We also signed a good agreement with the public union that was afraid its members would be negatively impacted by developing the courthouse as a P3. The union became a big supporter and we were able to the message across that, ‘No public jobs were harmed in building this project,’” he added.

Reinstein took pains to communicate with all of the local newspapers and the other Los Angeles media about the project and the P3 concept but acknowledged that he found it difficult to explain the procurement method “in a sound bite.”

“I used simple language and analogies that I thought people would easily understand, such as likening it having a house mortgage that includes the services of a gardener and a handyman for 39 years,” he explained.

Jessica Murray, who recently joined Walsh Construction as vice president of strategic initiatives, recalled state officials’ reluctance to educate the media to counteract the effects of negative stories about a P3 to expand Interstate 70 in northeast Denver. While working for Skanska, which is part of a consortium that is bidding for the project, she reached out to reporters and created an informational video about the P3. As a result, “reporters started calling me to check on the accuracy of what other people were saying,” she recalled. She urged state officials to capture the media’s attention in a project’s early stages, especially if they anticipate negative reactions. “If you can’t do that, talk to the cab drivers who talk to everyone on the planet. Bad word-of-mouth snowballs,” she warned.

The importance of engaging internal and external stakeholders early in the planning process also is vital, stressed participants in the summit’s opening general session.

When The College of New Jersey decided to build a multi-use development that included student housing as a P3, faculty and students expressed concern that they no longer would be dealing solely with the college, a trusted agent, over quality-of-life issues. Some faculty members criticized the decision to allow a tanning salon to locate on retail space in the complex, for example, said Stacy Schuster, the college’s associate vice president for college relations. The school was pleased with the pace at which work and approval processes were conducted, however, and ultimately, “the campus community came on board,” paving the way for development to enter into a second phase. “People on campus had trouble at first accepting that an external company would manage the project and handle maintenance. Now everyone is comfortable with this project, but if we take on another P3, we might hold internal conversations differently,” she said.

“Agencies need to pay attention to the facility user — the customer. You need to explain how it will be used and how it will accommodate changes in the future,” advised Douglas Koelemay, director of the Virginia Office of Public-Private Partnerships (VAP3). Agencies used to convey this information through public hearings but that avenue alone is no longer sufficient, he noted.

“It’s not just about telling people what is going to happen but answering their questions. You have to, as the saying goes, ‘get sticky’ with them. Social media is a big help with that,” Koelemay said, adding that it is important to know what citizens want, value and will support. “They can give you permission to proceed, even if they’re not actually promoting a project.” With this in mind, VAP3 adopted a new set of guidelines to conduct risk management and to engage the public.

P3 developers should make the time to reach out to their elected legislators to educate them on the benefits of using this procurement model to build public infrastructure as well, said Timothy Merriweather, president of the Texas Infrastructure Council. “We’re represented by U.S. senators and representatives, and state, county and city officials. Take the time to make calls, visit their offices, leave a flyer and tell them, ‘If you have a question about P3s, ask me. I’m your constituent and this is what I do.’ My county judge calls me to ask questions about P3s.”

One woman “with an extensive e-mail list” advocated so tirelessly against a proposed P3 that she “killed it singlehandedly,” he recalled. “The people who don’t understand what P3s are and can do and complain, they’re the squeaky wheel. They are heard. We’re the larger group but we’re not making that noise. We have to counter misinformation and misunderstanding with facts,” he said.

NCPPP

November 2, 2015




Here’s Why RIDOT Says a Truck-Toll Bond Would Save RI $612M.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – The debate over Gov. Gina Raimondo’s toll proposal is actually multiple debates rolled into one.

Among the questions: Should the state spend more money on bridge repairs, and if so, how much should it spend? Should the state institute a toll on large trucks, and if so, how should it work? Should the state float a bond backed by the toll revenue and get the money up front, even though it will have to pay interest?

It’s that last debate – whether toll revenue should be promised in exchange for a big infusion of capital, or used on a pay-as-you-go basis as it comes in each year – that may be the wonkiest.

The current version of RhodeWorks, as the governor has dubbed her big transportation plan, calls for the state to float a roughly $600-million bond on July 1 to be repaid by toll revenue. The bond proceeds would yield $500 million for bridge repairs, with the rest of the money covering toll-gantry construction, financing costs, and a debt reserve fund.

Borrowed money has to be repaid with interest, of course, and the RhodeWorks bond is no exception: the R.I. Department of Transportation says the state would need to make $578 million in interest payments over 30 years to pay off the bond in full, bringing its full cost to $1.16 billion. Critics have choked on that number, noting the bond will cost the state more in interest ($578 million) than it yields for bridge repairs ($500 million).

RIDOT officials don’t dispute that $578 million in interest payments is a lot of money. But they argue critics are being penny-wise, pound-foolish, because they’re not including what RIDOT estimates will be $1.2 billion in construction savings from floating the bond. The reason, they say, is that it will let bridges get fixed before they deteriorate further and become much more costly to repair.

Officials compare the concept to a homeowner who borrows money to repair a roof, or an individual who borrows money to fill a cavity, avoiding a future root canal.

“We’re engineers,” RIDOT Director Peter Alviti told WPRI.com. “If giving money to the lending institutions ends up costing taxpayers less during that same 10-year period, then we should do it that way.”

RIDOT has developed a list of all 827 bridges that would be tackled under RhodeWorks, ranked by priority based on what the agency calls its Bridge Improvement Program (BIP) scores. The score includes factors such as condition, size, average traffic, weight limits, route importance, and the cost of detours. The projects would be tackled in roughly the same order under either the bond plan or the pay-as-you-go plan, officials said.

(The worst-ranked bridge in Rhode Island, according to RIDOT: the Huntington Avenue Viaduct in Providence, which carries the Olneyville Expressway section of Route 6 over Troy and Westminster streets.)

RIDOT’s engineers calculate that if the $500 million in bond money is available immediately, it will cost $1.7 billion to do all the projects, and the state’s bridges will be 90% structurally sufficient by 2025. However, they say, if the bond money is not available and toll revenue can only be used as it comes in, the same projects will cost $2.9 billion, and the state’s bridges won’t be 90% structurally sufficient until 2034.

RIDOT attributes that $1.2 billion in savings to the benefits of a “surge” in bridge projects that the bond will allow. By using the infusion of borrowed money, the level of construction spending on bridges is forecast to quickly hit a peak of $266 million in 2017-18 before falling, versus a gradual increase under the pay-as-you-go budget:

RIDOT Bridge Repair Budget w Tolls paygo vs bond Oct 2015

RIDOT Deputy Director Peter Garino said that “surge” would allow the agency to preserve a large group of bridges that will otherwise deteriorate to the point where they need to be rehabilitated or even reconstructed, which is far more expensive to do. That is the reason his team recommended a bond rather than a pay-as-you-go approach, he said.

“What we looked at is, how do we compress things so they cost the least amount of money?” Alviti said.

The bottom line: RIDOT says even after making the $578 million in interest payments on the toll-backed bond, the “surge” approach will still save taxpayers a net $612 million thanks to the $1.2 billion in construction savings due to projects happening earlier.

“It’s only because we have a one-time upfront cost to get us to a regular place where we can normalize bridge repair that it makes sense,” Garino said. “If we did a deep dive on bridges when we first got here and if that was a flat curve, then you need an ongoing revenue source. But it wasn’t a flat curve. It was a bell upfront. And because of that, this is really the only reason why it makes sense to bond.”

Alviti said part of the reason for the “bell curve” in RIDOT’s projected needs is because so many of Rhode Island’s bridges were all built during the same period, the postwar era of major transportation expansions nationwide in the 1950s and ’60s. That’s left many of them falling into worse shape on roughly the same schedule, he said.

“More than 70% of our infrastructure is over 50 years old,” said Dave Fish, RIDOT’s acting chief engineer. “We’ve got so many of those bridges that are on the brink.”

As an example of how the cost of a bridge changes depending on how long it takes to tackle it, RIDOT offered four internal estimates: the Greenwich Avenue Bridge in Warwick, which would need $2.6 million in 2017 while it’s still a preservation project, but $10.4 million in 2025 when it would be a reconstruction project; the Concord Street Bridge, a $1.9-million preservation project in 2018 but a $7.5-million reconstruction project in 2028; the Phenix Avenue Bridge East in Cranston, a $3.8-million rehabilitation project in 2022 but an $8.1-million reconstruction project in 2032; and the Goat Island Bridge in Newport, an $8-million rehabilitation project in 2017 but an $11.9-million rehabilitation project in 2025.

The infusion of bond money would allow RIDOT to do those lower-cost projects for each bridge, while the pay-as-you-go plan would require the more expensive ones, according to Alviti. “The real savings is getting the ones that we can get preserved,” he said.

Alviti acknowledged the “surge” plan – and the costly bond – only make sense if RIDOT goes on to invest the necessary money to maintain the bridges once they’re back in good shape. The agency is beefing up its maintenance department by hiring 40 new employees there and is budgeting more money for those projects in the future, he said.

“If all we were doing was planning to do the surge, fix the bridges and leave everything else the same, you’re right, it would be cyclical,” Alviti said. “By increasing maintenance, we’ll get that capability up so that now instead of these 30-year cycles we get into, of having to reconstruct the bridges, we’re making them last longer.”

If bridges are properly maintained going forward, RIDOT officials think they could potentially last for 80 to 100 years, if not indefinitely. “If we can even just extend from 50 years to 80 to 100 years, we’re cutting the cost of these bridges in half over time,” Alviti said.

Critics have also questioned the type of bond called for under RhodeWorks. The governor wants to float what’s known as a revenue bond, with repayment directly tied to the money from tolls, as opposed to a general-obligation bond. Choosing the former is more costly: RIDOT is projecting an interest cost of roughly 5% for the toll-backed revenue bond, compared with an average rate of 2.4% on a general-obligation bond the state floated earlier this year.

From the Raimondo administration’s perspective, there are multiple benefits to the revenue bond: the governor can continue to argue taxpayer money will never be used to pay the bond, and unlike with a general-obligation bond, no voter referendum is required to approve the borrowing.

Garino also said the revenue bond provides a safeguard to prevent future governors or lawmakers from redirecting toll revenue to other types of spending. “We really want to make sure that the revenue from the tolling goes to those bridges,” he said.

RIDOT hasn’t won over critics with those arguments, however. Rep. Patricia Morgan, a leading Republican opponent of the toll bond, tweeted Monday: “Governor’s gift to Wall St banks: Revenue bonds with no voter approval carry higher Interest rates. Make repairs more expensive.” She has called for bridge repairs to be funded out of existing state revenue, and does not include the same “surge” RIDOT wants.

Other groups have also called for alternatives to RIDOT’s proposal, with the Rhode Island Trucking Association suggesting about $13 million a year in new revenue last week, and the Rhode Island Center for Freedom & Prosperity suggesting a public-private partnership modeled on Pennsylvania that could cost $570 million with interest.

State House leaders have suggested the General Assembly will take up the toll proposal next year, and could act on it within the first few months of the annual legislative session. If that happens, RhodeWorks-funded projects could begin next summer, Alviti said.

WPRI.com

By Ted Nesi

Published: November 2, 2015, 6:40 pm Updated: November 3, 2015, 9:30 am

Ted Nesi ([email protected]) covers politics and the economy for WPRI.com. He hosts Executive Suite and writes The Saturday Morning Post. Follow him on Twitter: @tednesi




Alaska Dusts Off Plans for $1.6 Billion Pension-Obligation Bond.

Alaska may double this year’s supply of pension obligation bonds as it considers borrowing $1.6 billion to help fund its cash-strapped retirement trust.

As of 2013, Alaska had the fourth-worst funded pension among U.S. states, reporting it had 52.3 percent of the money needed to pay retirees, better than only Illinois, Connecticut and Kentucky, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Since then, the state has done some one-time fixes — like a $1 billion cash injection into the trust last year — but hasn’t made strides to permanently fix the fund, said Deven Mitchell, the state’s debt manager at the Alaska Department of Revenue.

Prompted by Governor Bill Walker, Alaska is looking into the possibility of a $1.6 billion general obligation pension bond, Mitchell said. “It appears that this interest rate environment provides an opportunity for us to get in on the leveraging side at a low rate,” Mitchell said. “We’re thinking it’s not a bad time to consider this alternative.”

The state’s plan isn’t new. Alaska almost issued pension obligation bonds in 2008, back when its funded ratio was at 75.7 percent, Mitchell said. At the time, the state legislature created the Pension Obligation Bond Corporation, a conduit that the securities could be issued through, and approved up to $5 billion of debt, Mitchell said.

The deal team published a preliminary offering statement, gave rating company presentations and was in the process of picking a sale date when the stock market started to crash. The pension obligation bond dreams were over.

“The funny thing is, if we had bitten the bullet and ate the high interest rates [in early 2009], we would have been doing great now,” Mitchell said. For a pension obligation bond to be “in the money,” the eventual investment returns made with the proceeds have to exceed the initial borrowing rates.

This time around, Governor Walker has asked Mitchell to pick up from where they left off in 2008 and see if the economics still make sense. Mitchell said the deal will be ready to come to market if Governor Walker gives the green light. Because of the work done in 2008, the governor won’t need legislative approval to issue the potential bonds.

Selling bonds to pay back other debts may not seem intuitive, but it’s becoming a regular occurrence for those struggling to fund their pension systems. This year, state and local governments have sold the most GO pension obligation bonds since 2008 even as sentiment against them has grown.

The Government Finance Officers Association recommended, in a January advisory, that state and local governments refrain from issuing the bonds, reminding its 17,500 members that the proceeds from the deal might not return as much as the interest rate on the bond itself.

“People really don’t know what’s going to happen in the market, a lot of folks in the market don’t know what’s going to happen in the market,” said Dustin McDonald, a director at the federal liaison division of the GFOA. “Ultimately you’re betting on positive market outcomes that you may or may not see.”

Fitch reiterated the concerns in an Aug. 13 report, telling investors the debt “won’t fix U.S. public pensions” and the issuance of these types of bonds will only ever be neutral or negative for a credit.
According to Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics, “they’re always a bad idea.”

If Alaska goes through with its deal, this year’s total pension obligation bonds issues will be more than $3 billion, almost ten times last year’s supply, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Issuers have argued that not all pension obligation bonds are equal. If the bond proceeds go directly to the pension trust and just reduce rather than replace annual payments, then there’s nothing for investors to be concerned about, said Kansas State Treasurer Ron Estes. Kansas sold $1 billion of pension obligation bonds in August, raising its funded ratio to 65 percent from 62, Estes said.

“There are risks in doing this, but the biggest risk is not funding your pension,” Estes said.
Mitchell said he’s framing Alaska’s potential deal to mimic Kansas’s. So far Mitchell has arranged an underwriting syndicate and put together a “shell” of a preliminary offering statement.

As Alaska considers ways to repair its pension system, it also faces a $3.5 billion structural budget deficit, equal to about 55 percent of general fund expenditures, according to a note from Standard & Poor’s from Nov. 2.

Bloomberg

by Kate Smith

November 4, 2015 — 6:52 AM PST




Fitch: CA School District Special Revenue Recognition Could Have Broader Rating Implications.

Fitch Ratings-New York-04 November 2015:  Fitch Ratings’ assignment of an ‘AAA’ rating to San Diego Unified School District’s (SDUSD) upcoming general obligation bonds recognizes that tax revenues supporting repayment of debt would be considered ‘special revenues’ under the bankruptcy code. As such, Fitch believes the revenues and timely debt service payments would be uninterrupted in the unlikely event of a bankruptcy filing by the district.

Fitch’s conclusion was supported by legal opinions applying specifically to SDUSD bonds but many California school district GO bonds have been issued under constitutional provisions similar to SDUSD’s proposed bonds. Fitch is in the process of determining its protocol for applying the special tax analysis to other California school district bonds with the same legal construct, and expects to provide further guidance to the market in the near term.

Contact:
Amy Laskey
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0567
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall St.
New York, NY 10004

Laura Porter
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0575




Fitch: Nevada School District Reorg Plan May Hike Credit Risk.

Fitch Ratings-New York-06 November 2015:  Clark County, NV, School District’s (‘A’, Stable Outlook) reorganization plan presents mid-term risks, Fitch Ratings says. District reorganization plans might present uncertainties for bondholders – as a 2010 restructuring in Utah did – because the resulting distribution of property taxes, potential limits of future bond issuance, and operating environments of the smaller districts are unknown. Several steps must occur for a reorganization to take effect. Therefore in the short term we expect there to be no impact on Clark County School District.

Nevada Assembly Bill 394 requires that an advisory committee submit a plan to reorganize the Clark County School District to the State Board of Education by Jan. 1, 2017. The bill requires the committee to consider a number of issues, including equitable funding, the authority to issue bonds and raise revenues, and personnel contracts and collective bargaining. The school district superintendent has outlined a proposal to break the district into seven local precincts. The plan calls for continued centralization of operational departments with each precinct having flexibility on instructional issues. Under either a true district division or a hybrid scenario, Fitch expects outstanding debt to continue to be payable from the current levy that includes the taxable property of the entire school district.

However, new entities could emerge, each with a portion of the tax base and with potentially different tax rates. Depending upon the size and scope of the potential reorganization, precincts could have different operational aspects, including management and financial policies and practices. A reorganization plan could also affect the recent reauthorization of the district’s 10-year, $4.1 billion rolling bond program under which taxable property is assessed at $0.55 per $100 of AV. The program comes after several years in which the district lacked the capacity to issue bonds and in response to continued deferred maintenance and a backlog of new construction needs.

A district reorganization occurred in Utah when voters approved a ballot measure to break up the previous Jordan School District (ULTGO rated ‘AAA’ Stable Outlook) into two districts in 2007. The new district, Canyons School District (ULTGO rated ‘AAA’ Stable Outlook), began operations in fiscal 2010 under a separate school board. Following modest credit uncertainty at the time of the break-up, Fitch’s ratings recognize the strength of each district’s operations and the tax base from which the bonds are repaid.

Bonds issued prior to the breakup continue to be payable from the proceeds of unlimited ad valorem taxes levied on the taxable property of the prior combined district. Each district’s separate tax levy for the debt is set according to the size of their respective annual debt service repayment. The resulting revenues are restricted solely for the purpose of repaying those bonds, alleviating bondholders’ mid-term risks of the reorganization. Any other use would be against state law.

Contact:

Shannon Groff
Director
US Public Finance
+1 415 732-5628
650 California Street
San Francisco, CA

Rob Rowan
Senior Director
Fitch Wire
+1 212 908-9159
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY




National League of Cities Local Jobs Report.

NLC’s monthly analysis of the jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with a specific focus on local government employment.

October 2015

City and county governments gained 2,400 jobs in October, marking the 10th month in the past 11 that local government employment (excluding education) has increased. September’s jobs report was revised up to reflect the 12,100 jobs that were added in local government and the highest increase since October 2014. NLC’s recently released City Fiscal Conditions 2015 report showed that city fiscal conditions are stabilizing in the wake of the Great Recession, and the local employment gains provide further evidence of an economic recovery in cities. In the past year, city and county governments have gained 45,000 jobs, although employment remains approximately 170,000 jobs below the post-recession peak in December, 2008.

October 2015 jobs report graphic




Municipal Bonds Shine in Bleak Landscape.

Investing in boring bridges and sewers is paying off once again.

Municipal bonds sold by U.S. state and local governments are returning about 2% this year, according to Barclays PLC data, beating corporate bonds and many other supposedly higher-performing asset classes.

It is the second year of near market-leading returns from a sector typically prized for its low, steady performance. Muni bonds last year posted a total return of 9%, which comprises price appreciation and interest payments, approaching the S&P 500’s total return of 14%.

At a time of low returns and high volatility in other markets, the concerns facing muni bonds—including the threat of defaults from Puerto Rico, the U.S. commonwealth that has some $72 billion of debt outstanding—seem relatively manageable to many investors, compared with the risk of a steep pullback in stocks or other riskier assets.

Municipal bonds are considered nearly as safe as Treasurys because they are backed by tax revenue or fees on critical public services, such as water. The debt also is boosted by interest payments that are typically tax-free, often used to fund peoples’ retirements.

Even buyers who can’t enjoy the tax breaks are purchasing municipal debt, said David Kotok, chief investment officer at Sarasota, Fla.-based Cumberland Advisors. “If you look around the world, the forces in the advanced economies that would drive interest rates lower, or keep them low, are in place,” he said.

Investors have struggled to find better performance.

Total returns in 2015 amount to about 1% for Treasury debt and near-flat returns for highly rated corporate bonds. The S&P 500 has returned 3.9%.

Other market sectors have fared worse. Hedge funds were down an average of about 1.5% in 2015 through September, according to research firm HFR Inc. Commodities are down 17% year to date as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

The durability in the $3.7 trillion sector persisted even as municipal debt faced challenges throughout the year, including the first default from Puerto Rico and concerns about the financial health of Chicago and states such as Illinois. Investors also spent several months on the sidelines, concerned about possible interest-rate increases earlier in the year.

Those worries diminished when the Federal Reserve didn’t move rates, and demand for municipal debt increased. Investors have added money to municipal-bond mutual funds in five of the past six weeks, after withdrawing more than they put in every month from May to September, according to Lipper data. About $2 billion has flowed into municipal-bond mutual funds this year through October.

“Investors began to get more comfortable with the fact that we weren’t going to see increased interest rates, which led to more robust demand, and that’s helped recent performance,” said Peter Hayes, head of municipal bonds at BlackRock Inc., which manages about $111 billion in tax-exempt debt. Mr. Hayes also noted rates have begun to tick up of late.

Investors have returned to munis after a 2013 selloff spurred by fears of a Fed rate increase and another that began after analyst Meredith Whitney predicted widespread defaults in a December 2010 television interview. There were no defaults on debt rated by Moody’s Investors Service in 2014, and several analysts said the market includes thousands of diverse municipal entities, many of which have improving resources after the recession.

Meanwhile, the supply of bonds for new borrowing has dwindled, even as state and local governments rushed to take advantage of low rates, according to research firm Municipal Market Analytics. Though issuers have sold almost one-third more debt than during the same period of last year, most refinanced outstanding bonds, constricting the total available.

A supportive foundation leaves municipal bonds poised to benefit as rates increase, said David Hammer, executive vice president and municipal bond portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. Historically, the debt has outperformed other bonds when interest rates rise, and with state and local finances improving along with the U.S. economy, investors are facing less risk than in recent years, he said. “That creates a pretty attractive backdrop,” Mr. Hammer said.

Some analysts said persistent demand has driven up prices, reducing the tax-free income that makes the debt attractive. Many in the market would prefer lower prices and higher yields, which would make it easier to sell bonds or mutual funds, said Matt Fabian, partner at Municipal Market Analytics. Bond yields fall as prices rise.

“You don’t buy an income-producing asset if it doesn’t produce income,” he said.

Still, several investors said the market has provided enough income relative to other assets to shrug off concerns about potential defaults from Puerto Rico, which skipped its first debt payment in August.

Lyle Fitterer, managing director for Wells Fargo Capital Management, which oversees about $39 billion in municipal bonds, said he is still concerned about the impact of possible Puerto Rico defaults. Still, such risks are low marketwide, and once investors consider their tax bill, municipal debt still looks compelling, he said. “Sometimes, superboring can be good,” he said.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By AARON KURILOFF

Nov. 4, 2015 7:05 p.m. ET

 




Long Lives and Rocky Markets Have Some Pension Systems Recalibrating.

For decades, state and local pension systems thought of themselves as America’s ultimate long-term investors.

Companies could go bankrupt by the thousand; corporate boards could show C.E.O.s the door. But the states and cities would be there forever. That meant their pension funds — and the local taxpayers who guarantee them — could invest aggressively, even if that meant taking more risk. In an infinite time frame, today’s loss would always be offset by tomorrow’s gain.

Or so the thinking went. Now, a long-living baby boom generation, rapidly fluctuating global markets and municipal bankruptcies are blowing holes in the notion that for public pension funds, time is infinite. It turns out that the short term matters too.

And it matters now more than ever. According to the National Association of State Retirement Administrators, virtually all public pension funds are in what is called a “cash-flow negative” state. That means that every year, they pay more in benefits to retirees than they receive in contributions. And that signals, for some at least, an urgent need to reconsider traditional investment strategies.

The trustees of California’s giant pension system, known as Calstrs, are among them.

“It’s really very simple,” said Allan Emkin, co-founder of Pension Consulting Alliance, in a recent presentation to the board of the organization, officially the California State Teachers’ Retirement System.

“The actuary is saying that you’re going to get 7.5 percent every year,” he said, referring to the grail-like investment assumption that virtually all public pension boards factor into their decisions, which affect millions of people and trillions of dollars.

“And that may well be your average,” he said. “But getting to that average, if you take a really big hit in the early periods, you may not be able to recover.”

He paused to let the heresy sink in: It is possible to hit your long-term actuarial target and still go insolvent. And the long term will not matter if you run out of money in the short. Think Central Falls, R.I., or Prichard, Ala. Think Puerto Rico.

It is possible for two funds, each starting with the same balance, and with the same average return over 20 years, to have vastly differing performances over the period. In the two cases below, the annual returns are the same, but occur in the opposite chronological order. When losses happen in the early years, as for Fund B below, the balance can be wiped out well before the 20 years are up.

Mr. Emkin was helping Calstrs’s trustees with an asset-allocation review, a monthslong process in which the board was examining its investment approach in detail and considering changes. The board is scheduled to vote on a proposed new approach, called Risk Mitigating Strategies, this month. The general idea is to cut back on stocks and increase investments that are expected to rise when the stock market falls.

It was necessary, Mr. Emkin said, because reducing the $194 billion pension fund’s exposure to another stock-market rout is “the single most important decision you’ll make on the investment side.”

Indeed, cutting back on stocks means backing away from the approach that virtually all public pension funds have taken for decades. Some of the trustees seemed concerned that none of their peers were going this way, but Mr. Emkin told them that company pension funds had been moving away from stocks for years.

Public pension funds have “matured,” and that means doing things differently, he urged. Plans that were young in the 1950s or 1960s now have lots of retirees, who are living longer, healthier lives than their actuaries assumed they would. Assuming shorter life spans meant setting aside less money, and this is one reason so many state and local pension funds have shortfalls today.

This is not a death knell, but it means investment losses have outsize impact.

“When you’ve got negative cash flow, the math gets wicked bad,” said Sean McShea, president of Ryan Labs Asset Management, an investment management firm that specializes in bonds. “Poor performance gets amplified.”

Since annual contributions do not cover the payouts, pension funds with negative cash flow generally rely on investment income to close each year’s gap. They need every year to be a good year, but they tend to invest heavily in equities, and the stock market can, of course, fall. A couple of back-to-back bad years — like 2001 and 2002, or 2008 and 2009 — can wreak havoc.

“If the pension fund has a bad sequence of returns, all of a sudden it’s, ‘How are you going to pay this?’” Mr. McShea said. “You can’t grow your way out. It’s almost mathematically impossible to close the gap.”

The crash of 2008 showed what can happen. Public pension funds in growing, relatively prosperous places could fall back on their local taxpayers to fill the giant holes that opened. But not all “mature” pension funds are sponsored by wealthy states or cities. In many places, the obligations that workers and retirees have earned now dwarf the jurisdictions that sponsor them.

Many of the roughly 1,700 California school districts paying in to Calstrs are like that. And there is an added complication: The annual pension contributions are set by state lawmakers in Sacramento, not by Calstrs.

From Wall Street to Washington and in the towers of academia, people are buzzing about what some say is the pernicious focus in corporate America on short-term profits.

For years, lawmakers set Calstrs’s rates far too low to cover what its promised benefits cost. Time passed, the system matured, cash flow went negative and then came the crash of 2008.

Calstrs lost $54 billion and could not bounce back. By 2014, it was paying out $12 billion to roughly 270,000 retired teachers and surviving spouses, and taking in only $6 billion a year in contributions. By conservative measures, it had an $80 billion shortfall. Even if it achieved its long-term investment-return assumption of 7.5 percent, its actuary said, it would probably run out of money around 2047. And if it missed its target, it would run out of money even sooner.

In 2014, Gov. Jerry Brown signed a law to substantially increase the money going to Calstrs every year, starting at $450 million a year and rising to $4.5 billion. The biggest increase, about $3.2 billion, is to come from California’s school districts, community colleges and other local governments. Additional amounts are to come from the state, and from Calstrs’s 480,000 teachers and other school employees.

If everyone does their share, Calstrs projects it will close the gap in about 30 years as long as the invested money returns an average 7.5 percent per year over the long term. It is not going to be easy. Fitch Ratings has warned that less affluent school districts may have a hard time keeping up as the amounts rise. Until 2014, they were expected to contribute 8.25 percent of each payroll to Calstrs; by 2021 it will be 19.1 percent.

And for the state, a temporary tax increase that helps cover the increase will expire in 2019.

It was hard to get the promised billions, and the last thing Calstrs wants is to put the money into stocks, then see it vanish in another stock crash.

Calstrs still aspires to 7.5 percent average annual returns — otherwise everybody would have to kick in even more — but it now wants to “reduce downside risk” at the same time. The idea behind Risk Mitigating Strategies is to attempt that by selling off as much as $20 billion of its equities and placing the money instead in Treasury securities, two types of hedge funds and possibly infrastructure projects.

Specifics were deferred until later. Much of the board meeting was devoted to comparing the results of modeling various hypothetical portfolios. Calstrs’s current portfolio was shown to have about a 30 percent chance of another big fall by 2019 — the year, ominously, when the state tax increase is scheduled to expire.

Other modeled portfolios seemed to have a lower probability of a crash in the near term.

“I’m putting on my skeptic’s hat,” said one trustee, Paul Rosenstiel. “This sounds too good to be true, that we have figured out a way to eliminate downside risk, without sacrificing return, but no one else has.”

But Mr. Emkin quickly countered: “We’re not talking about eliminating risk. We’re talking about reducing it at the margin,” he said. “What we’re trying to do here is to minimize potential for there to be increased costs to the employer, or the employee, going forward. That’s the goal.”

THE NEW YORK TIMES

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH

NOV. 4, 2015




House Committee Approves Bill to Classify Investment Grade Munis as High Quality Liquid Assets.

On November 3, 2015, the House Financial Services Committee approved HR 2209, bipartisan legislation that would require federal regulators to classify all investment grade municipal securities as high quality liquid assets (HQLA). This important legislation is necessary to amend the liquidity coverage ratio rule approved by federal regulators last fall, which classifies foreign sovereign debt securities as HQLA while excluding investment grade municipal securities in any of the acceptable investment categories for banks to meet new liquidity standards.

Not classifying municipal securities as HQLA will increase borrowing costs for state and local governments to finance public infrastructure projects, as banks will likely demand higher interest rates on yields on the purchase of municipal bonds during times of national economic stress, or even forgo the purchase of municipal securities. The resulting cost impacts for state and local governments could be significant, with bank holdings of municipal securities and loans having increased by 86% since 2009.

The next stop for HR 2209 is the House floor, but the date for its consideration has not been determined yet. GFOA is urging its members to send letters to their congressional delegations urging support for this bill. A draft letter has been developed for your use which is available here. Please reach out to your House members today and urge them to support HR 2209.

GFOA

Thursday, November 5, 2015




Budget Deal Would Suspend Debt Limit, Extend Sequestration for BABs.

WASHINGTON – A budget deal negotiated by key members of Congress and administration officials would suspend the debt limit through March 15, 2017, but also extend sequestration of direct-pay bond subsidies by an additional year, through fiscal 2025.

The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015, which would be a House amendment to a Senate amendment of H.R. 1314, was released late Monday, days before the Nov. 3 deadline to address the debt limit. It may be considered by lawmakers this week, according to the House’s website, and municipal bond experts expect it to be enacted prior to the debt-limit deadline. H.R. 1314 was previously a trade bill, but is to be used as a vehicle for the budget measure, which would suspend rather than raise the debt limit through March 15, 2017.

Then on March 16, 2017, the debt limit would be raised to the amount of obligations outstanding at the time.

A suspension of the debt limit until 2017 would mean that Congress would not have to revisit the debt-limit issue until after the next presidential election. Once the debt limit is suspended, sales of State and Local Government Series securities (SLGS) will resume.

When the debt limit was reached in March, the Treasury Department suspended sales of SLGS as one of the extraordinary measures it takes to preserve the nation’s borrowing capacity. State and local governments often purchase SLGS for their advance refunding escrows.

Bill Daly, director of governmental affairs for the National Association of Bond Lawyers, said that the reopening of the SLGS window would relieve issuers of having to solicit bids for open market Treasuries in lieu of purchasing SLGS. Purchasing Treasuries “can get expensive, particularly for small issues,” he said.

Frank Shafroth, director of the Center for State and Local Leadership at George Mason University, said the reopening of the SLGS window is a “big plus” because anything that increases the efficiency of the muni market could reduce issuance costs.

He also said that the long debt-limit suspension removes the threat of a downgrade of the United States’ credit rating and the ratings of state and local governments.

Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association president and chief executive officer Ken Bentsen said that the group “strongly supports efforts to avoid any default on our nation’s debt.”

The budget agreement would raise discretionary spending caps for fiscal years 2016 and 2017. Doing so likely removes the threat of a federal government shutdown in December, Shafroth said. The current continuing resolution funding federal agencies expires in the middle of that month.

But the agreement would reduce spending in fiscal 2025 by extending to that year sequestration of mandatory spending, which would mean cuts to federal subsidy payments for Build America Bonds and other direct-pay bonds.

Sequestration of mandatory spending was initially supposed to last through fiscal 2021, but it was extended through fiscal 2023 under a 2013 budget agreement. It was then extended through 2024 in February 2014 in a bill that repealed reductions in cost of living increases for younger military retirees.

Daly said that when Congress wants offsets, mandatory sequestration is a “little piggy bank they keep going to.”

John Godfrey, senior government relations director for the American Public Power Association, expressed disappointment with the extension of sequestration for direct-pay bonds. He added that extending mandatory sequestration to offset increased discretionary spending caps is not fiscally responsible because it’s just switching from indiscriminate cuts today to indiscriminate cuts years from now.

Some members of Congress have proposed reviving the BAB program, and the Obama administration is proposing the creation of a similar direct-pay bond program. But the budget agreement “undermines the chance of using this tool in the future” and highlights the need to make no changes to traditional tax-exempt bonds, Godfrey said.

Bond Dealers of America is disappointed to see that Congress may hurt direct-pay bonds but is pleased with the outline of the budget agreement overall, said Mike Nicholas, the group’s CEO. He said that the agreement “will reduce the risks associated with federal budget and debt limit uncertainty for an extended period of time, which would be a positive development for state and local governments and the overall economy.”

While experts expect the Bipartisan Budget Act to be approved by Congress, there may be both Republicans and Democrats that vote against it. Some Republicans will find fault with the fact that the deal is an agreement with the White House and raises the discretionary spending caps, while some Democrats may find the cuts to Medicare and Social Security spending in the deal to be problematic. There could be adjustments made to the measure to ensure it passes the House, Daly said.

THE BOND BUYER

BY NAOMI JAGODA

OCT 27, 2015 1:15pm ET




S&P: The EPA's Clean Power Plan Is Not an Immediate Credit Threat to U.S. Public Power and Co-Op Utilities, But Uncertainties Remain.

When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its final carbon emissions regulations under the Clean Power Plan (CPP) banner this past August, it essentially recast the operational landscape for electric generation in the U.S. The rules establish a national target for reducing power plants’ carbon emissions by 32% by 2030 compared with 2005’s levels, based on underlying state-by-state reduction mandates. (Emissions measurements are in pounds of carbon per megawatt-hour [MWh].)

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services believes the rules could create operational and financial burdens for many public power and electric cooperative utilities, particularly those that rely extensively on coal generation to meet customers’ electricity needs. However, we do not view the rules as an imminent threat to the sector’s credit quality.

Overview

Continue reading.

20-Oct-2015




How Standard & Poor's Rates U.S. State and Local Government Department Appropriation-Backed Debt.

Appropriation-backed debt is a common financing structure in the U.S. municipal bond market. These obligations come in various forms, but the most prevalent are lease revenue bonds, certificates of participation, and service contract bonds. Payment of debt service on appropriation-backed debt is contingent on the inclusion in the enacted budget of annual appropriations sufficient to cover principal and interest directly (see “USPF Criteria: Appropriation-Backed Obligations,” published June 13, 2007, on RatingsDirect).

Occasionally, however, we’re asked to review appropriation-backed structures for capital facilities that are less-direct obligations of a state or local government, but which receive support from that government’s annual appropriations from departments or agency revenues. Examples of these include bonds whose repayment source is limited to a specific department or agency’s resources, rather than the full resources of the government, or debt that a given department issues outside of the general government’s typical capital funding program. In these cases, we apply our government department appropriation-backed criteria (“USPF Criteria: Rating Government Department Appropriation-Backed Debt In U.S. Public Finance,” Nov. 7, 2007), in conjunction with our appropriation-backed obligations criteria. In analyzing these transactions, we assess the appropriation process, project/financing authorization, and level of state/local government involvement, along with how well the financing structure conforms to our criteria and where the obligation will be accounted for.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services believes some additional context on how it rates government department appropriations for U.S. state and local governments may be useful to investors and other market participants.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do government department appropriation-backed obligations differ from more traditional appropriation-backed structures?
The main differences are how they authorized and appropriated or budgeted, and the revenues that are available to make the appropriation from. The general government authorizes traditional appropriation obligations and pays them from its general operating funds. Department obligations can come in an array of structures. In some cases, the structures closely resemble traditional appropriation or lease revenue-backed bonds; in others, payments from the state or local government aren’t part of the traditional budget appropriation process, and there may be a more limited flow of funds to support the appropriation or a different authorization process from traditional appropriation obligations. The transaction’s structural features and the extent to which the state or local government recognizes it as an obligation will determine the strength of the financing relationship to that entity.

Do Standard & Poor’s government department criteria replace the broader appropriation criteria when rating these obligations?
No. When rating government department obligations, we use both criteria. As a first step, we apply our broader appropriation-backed obligations criteria to evaluate the structural security features of the bonds. Then, we apply our government department appropriation-backed debt criteria to evaluate the obligation’s financing link to the general government, if any. In other words, our government department appropriation criteria don’t take the place of our appropriation criteria, but rather provide additional guidance on how to address certain security features that might be similar to those for traditional appropriation debt, but may not have the same direct ties to a state or local government’s debt issuance or budgeting process. In analyzing government department obligations, we still rely on our appropriation-backed obligations criteria to evaluate leases, service contracts, or certificates of participation if these are part of the security structure. We rely on our government department criteria to analyze additional key considerations that in turn allow us to evaluate the obligation’s link to the general government; the latter assessment helps us determine whether to link the obligation rating to that of the general government or rate it independently.

What are the key considerations Standard & Poor’s evaluates when rating government department debt?
Standard & Poor’s evaluates certain factors to determine how similar a government department’s debt issue is to other debt of the state or local government and what role the obligation plays in the government’s overall capital plan and structure. Factors that indicate a strong link to the general government include:

Can government department obligations achieve ratings as high as those on traditional appropriation structures?
Yes. If a government department obligation meets certain conditions, Standard & Poor’s may assign the same rating as it would to an appropriation obligation of the general government (e.g., one notch below the general obligation [GO] rating). To achieve this, the department or agency must demonstrate that it has authority to enter into the contractual agreement by a legislative act or resolution. That is, a government level higher than the department or agency must approve the agreement. It’s also important that the state or local government recognize the long-term obligation. We can determine this in several ways, including:

Does Standard & Poor’s always rate government department appropriation obligations one notch below the GO rating or issuer credit rating?
No. We could rate these obligations one or more notches below the GO rating or the issuer credit rating on the general government or, in certain cases, independently from it. In some cases, the department of a state or local government has received legislative authority to enter into a contractual obligation for capital purposes, but the state or local government doesn’t consider it debt or a direct long-term contractual commitment. For example, a government might be statutorily required to make payments to another agency or department, and that entity then agrees to issue bonds backed by that statutorily mandated payment. In this instance, the government might not view these payment obligations or the appropriation-backed bonds as its own obligation. Although we recognize the strength of the statutorily required payments, these obligations don’t benefit from the same treatment at the general government level — that is, the government doesn’t view itself as the obligor, and thus we might assign a rating more than one notch below the GO rating on that government. In some other cases, we’ve been asked to rate transactions issued by an independent agency that perhaps receives funds from the government, but is not itself an agency of the government and has not received formal approval from the government to issue the debt. An example of this is a regional transit authority that is an independent authority, but receives funds from one or more governments. Absent formal approval to issue the debt by the participating government or governments, the government revenues becomes a part of the agency’s revenue stream and are incorporated in the analysis as other sources of revenues available to fund the debt service on any appropriation-backed bonds issued. In this case, an evaluation of the agency will likely be necessary to determine the appropriate rating, independent of the ratings on the governments providing the revenues.

Under Standard & Poor’s policies, only a Rating Committee can determine a Credit Rating Action (including a Credit Rating change, affirmation or withdrawal, Rating Outlook change, or CreditWatch action). This commentary and its subject matter have not been the subject of Rating Committee action and should not be interpreted as a change to, or affirmation of, a Credit Rating or Rating Outlook.

30-Oct-2015

Primary Credit Analyst: John A Sugden, New York (1) 212-438-1678;
[email protected]

U.S. Public Finance Criteria: Liz E Sweeney, Criteria Officer, New York (1) 212-438-2102;
[email protected]




S&P's Public Finance Podcast: (University of Alabama and the EPA's Clean Power Plan).

In this week’s Extra Credit, Director Bianca Gaytan-Burrell discusses what’s behind our rating action on the University of Alabama and Senior Director David Bodek explains the EPA’s recently finalized Clean Power Plan.

Listen to the Podcast.

Oct. 30, 2015




How Much School Funding Is Enough?

Nearly every state has faced legal battles over school funding. In November, the political battle moves to Mississippi, where voters face two competing (and confusing) ballot questions on the issue.

“They say money can’t fix everything,” said Billy Joe Ferguson, superintendent of the Carroll County School District in Mississippi. “But I’ve never had any money, so I wouldn’t know.”

Ferguson says his school district, with a little over 1,000 kids, doesn’t have enough money to run effectively. So he officially retired two years ago so the county wouldn’t have to pay for his $80,000 salary and started collecting his $18,000-a-year pension while still going to work every day.

This issue, money in education, is precisely what Mississippians will be heading to the polls to vote on Nov. 3. Initiative 42 is a ballot measure that would change Mississippi’s state Constitution to promise an “adequate and efficient system of free public schools.” Currently, Mississippi’s constitution says nothing about the quality of public education. The ballot measure would also give a court oversight to enforce the requirement.

It looks like a straightforward issue: Advocates argue that Mississippi’s poor education record means more money is essential. Opponents argue that the measure is too far-reaching.

The debate comes from the Mississippi Adequate Education Program (MAEP), which the Mississippi legislature passed in 1997. MAEP is a formula that establishes “adequate current operation funding levels necessary for the programs of each school district to meet a successful level of student performance,” according to the Mississippi Department of Education’s website. The department gives schools annual letter ratings. A school providing an adequate education has been deemed by the legislature to be any with a C-rating or above.

The exact MAEP formula is complex but essentially works like this: The Department of Education looks at expenditures of C-rated schools from the previous year, and it averages that amount among the districts and then divides by the number of students in a school. (That’s the “adequate” per pupil funding.) It also allocates additional money to districts based on their number of free-lunch participants.

But because Mississippi’s legislature doesn’t have a legal obligation to fund MAEP, it’s has only been fully funded twice in the 18 years since the law passed, and according to a judge in a recent lawsuit over the state’s education funding.

The lawsuit — brought by former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who pushed for passage of MAEP — wanted to hold state lawmakers accountable for not funding MAEP. Hinds County Chancery Judge William Singletary ruled that “MAEP should be annually funded to the fullest extent possible,” but he wouldn’t issue an order because of an addendum to the law, passed in 2006, that offers the alternative to ‘phase in’ full funding over four years. The MAEP hasn’t been fully funded since 2008.

Conflicts over state education budgets aren’t unique to Mississippi. More than 40 states have faced school funding lawsuits. Most recently, Kansas is in the middle of rewriting its school funding formula after a court ruled that the current system doesn’t meet the required legal standard; and a similar ruling in Washington state resulted in tuition cuts at state universities and an additional $1.3 billion for K-12 education.

Opponents of Initiative 42 feel like proponents aren’t considering the financial implications of the ballot measure.

“Our public schools aren’t doing their job,” said Grant Callan, president of Empower Mississippi, a group opposed to Initiative 42. “Our schools very often aren’t up to par — there’s no debate about that. But Initiative 42 is ultimately saying that more money is going to solve the problem, without thinking about the practical implications for the rest of the state.”

If Initiative 42 passes, the legislature has pledged to fully fund the MAEP to avoid judicial action.

“If that happens, it’ll mean an 8 percent cut across other state agencies. What will that mean for Medicaid? What will that mean for corrections? For our roads and bridges?” Callan said.

But it’s not just the money that bothers the measure’s opponents — it’s the judicial oversight, which they say is an example of overreaching government.

“If you don’t like the way your state legislatures are handling the budget, then you can vote them out. We see this measure as taking power away from the citizens since it gives one judge in Hinds County [where Jackson is located] more power than their own elected officials,” Callan said.

That’s where the alternative to Initiative 42 comes in. Introduced by state Rep. Greg Snowden, Initiative 42A makes no mention of judicial oversight or adequate funding and reads: “The Legislature shall, by general law, provide for the establishment, maintenance and support of an effective system of free public schools.”

Calling Initiative 42 a “lawsuit hand grenade,” Snowden wanted to write something that kept the authority within the state legislatures.

“You don’t measure success by how much money you’re throwing at something,” Snowden said. “If you’re going to insert a standard for our schools, let’s make it an effective one that focuses on output. We can’t allow things to be litigated that don’t need to be litigated.”

In order for either Initiative 42 or 42A to pass, a majority must first vote ‘Yes’ on the first ballot question to change the state constitution. Then, a majority must choose either 42 or 42A, and that majority must also represent 40 percent of the total votes cast in the election.

If that sounds confusing, that’s because it is, said Patsy Brumfield, a spokesperson for 42 For Better Schools. “We feel 42A was only created to confuse people so they would end up not voting for Initiative 42,” she said.

For lawmakers like Snowden, Initiative 42 would put an unnecessary strain on legislatures to fulfill financial promises that are impossible.

“The recession hit and we had to make sacrifices,” said Snowden. “We’re finally back to pre-recession levels, and we’ve been steadily increasing school funding.”

But, according to Ferguson, that hasn’t been enough for Carroll County School District to pay for what it needs.

“We have to be innovative. Our teachers use a lot of workbooks and materials from the Internet since we don’t have textbooks for the students to take home, and they don’t do a lot of complaining. But still — the average book in our library is 25 years old, 101 of our computers still use Windows XP and 40 percent of our bus fleet is more than 15 years old.”

There aren’t any projections for how the election will turn out, but Ferguson isn’t hopeful because of the convoluted language on the ballot and the stipulations needed for Initiative 42 to pass.

In one sense this debate is simply a disagreement about how to fund schools. Some also describe this as an example of how Mississippians are divided about how to try to improve the state.

“It’s become a battle for the heart and soul of Mississippi,” Brumfield said.

GOVERNING.COM

BY MATTIE QUINN | OCTOBER 27, 2015




Puerto Rico Default Won't Derail Market, Bond Insurer Says.

A bond default by Puerto Rico won’t derail the $3.7 trillion municipal-bond market as the investor base for the commonwealth’s securities has shifted to hedge funds from individuals and mutual funds, according to Tom Metzold, a managing director at National Public Finance Guarantee, which insures some of the debt.

“Is Puerto Rico the first domino?” Metzold said Wednesday at a forum sponsored by Standard & Poor’s at the Harvard Club in New York. “The answer is no.”

Negotiations between commonwealth officials and holders of some of Puerto Rico’s $73 billion of bonds fell apart last week. The administration of Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla has said it may run out of cash next month. Puerto Rico has about $720 million of bond payments due in December and January.

“We’re obviously hoping very much that they don’t want to go nuclear and not pay that,” Metzold said. “We can assist, but we’re looking for a little give and take here so that potentially this can extend for a longer period of time.”

Puerto Rico’s Government Development Bank, which oversees the island’s borrowing, is facing a Dec. 1 debt payment of $354 million. The GDB said Wednesday that it had net liquidity of $875 million as of Sept. 30. If the GDB doesn’t make the payment, it would be a violation of the commonwealth’s constitution, Metzold said.

Bond Insurers

MBIA Inc., the parent of National Public Financial, has been in talks with Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority and other insurance companies that guarantee repayment on some of utility’s bonds to delay payments to free up cash and and help restructure $8.3 billion of debt, two people with knowledge of the matter said last week. Assured Guaranty Ltd. and Syncora Guarantee Inc., along with MBIA, back about $2.5 billion of the bonds.

Tim Ryan, a portfolio manager at Nuveen Asset Management, said he expected the price spreads to widen between how much bonds are offered and how much buyers are willing to bid if there’s a default. Bid-offer spreads have increased on other news, such as when the Obama administration proposed giving Puerto Rico a form of bankruptcy protection, he said.

“There will be an adjustment in prices,” Ryan said. “There are individuals on the island that own direct debt. If there’s a default and temporary suspension in payments, their game has changed.” Some investors may sell Puerto Rico debt, driving prices down, if there’s a default, Ryan said, adding that it’s difficult to quantify the risks to bondholders given the uncertainty of the political and legal process.

Commonwealth general obligations with an 8 percent coupon that mature in July 2035 traded Thursday at an average price of 73.1 cents on the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The bonds yield 11.5 percent.

Giving Puerto Rico the ability to file bankruptcy “is a slippery slope,” Metzold said, because it could result in more litigation. Congress isn’t likely to approve the Obama plan, both Metzold and Ryan said.

“Negotiation means a give and take, not I want, I want, I want,” Metzold said. “There are realistic solutions if people are willing to be realistic in their expectations.”

Bloomberg Business

by Martin Z Braun & Michelle Kaske

October 28, 2015 — 2:38 PM PDT Updated on October 29, 2015 — 7:31 AM PDT




Vanguard Muni Chief Says Death of Liquidity Greatly Exaggerated.

In the $3.7 trillion municipal-bond market, dealers have cut inventories and trading has been on the decline. But the man who oversees tax-exempt debt for the world’s largest mutual-fund company isn’t worried the market will freeze up.

Chris Alwine, the head of state and local-government debt for Vanguard Group Inc., said even if buyers rush for the exits and bond prices slide, Wall Street will still be there, willing to step in to make a profit.
“The Street doesn’t go in there and say I’ll lose on the next 50 trades to make sure the market is really tranquil,” Alwine, who oversees $120 billion of municipal bonds for the Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based company, said in an interview Wednesday in New York. “They’re in the business to make money, plain and simple.”

Wall Street has been awash with speculation that a bond-price rout could be exaggerated by a exodus of capital from U.S. fixed income markets when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2006. While concern that dealers won’t buy during a sell-off has largely focused on the corporate and Treasury market, then Securities and Exchange Commissioner Luis Aguilar in February said the drop in liquidity could foist steep losses on municipal investors once rates climb.

The municipal market, which is divided among more than 50,000 issuers and is dominated by individual investors, has long been less liquid that the Treasury and corporate markets, and it weathered the turmoil since the recession without seizing up. When mutual funds dumped holdings of Puerto Rico bonds as the island’s debt crisis escalated, hedge funds snapped up the securities, which continue to trade frequently even as the government edges closer to a record-setting default.

The average daily trade volume for municipal bonds is less than 2 percent of what it is for Treasuries and less than half that of corporates, according to Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association data. Last year, $2.7 trillion of municipal debt changed hands, a decline of 16 percent decline from 2011, according to Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board statistics.

Such trading is handled between dealers, rather than on centralized exchanges, which can make it harder for investors to shop for bids to buy and sell.

Alwine said liquidity is best gauged by the cost of trading, the ease of doing so and the ability to buy and sell large blocks of bonds without affecting their price. None of those factors are easy to measure with official statistics, he said.

Positive Sign

By one indicator, the money manager said, there’s little sign of liquidity drying up: Bid-offer spreads, or the difference between where an investor offers to sell and another to buy, are less than they were before the 2008 credit crisis.

That comes despite a withdrawal by securities dealers, which have been keeping fewer bonds in their inventories in hope of selling them later. Dealers’ holdings fell to about $19 billion at the end June from $40 billion in 2010, according to Federal Reserve data, as regulations and narrower profits due to low interest rates led banks to devote less capital to the market.

That doesn’t mean they won’t come back. The firms are waiting until there’s more money to be made, Alwine said. After Chicago’s credit rating was cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service in May, the price swings made dealers active traders in the city’s debt, he said.

“Credit was hit, the bond traded down, volume spiked and all the dealers were much more active in that name once there was a potential to make more money,” he said.

Another example: The “taper-tantrum” of 2013, when speculation that the Fed would raise interest rates pushed yields on top-rated 30-year municipal bonds to as much as 129 percent of comparable Treasuries. “Waves of demand” came in as AAA rated bonds were yielding the equivalent of 8 or 9 percent on other debt, once the tax break was factored in, he said.

To take advantage of opportunities when the market sells off, Vanguard ensures that it has enough cash and holds higher-rated bonds from states such as California and New York, where demand for tax-exempt bonds is strong. These securities can be more easily traded during times of market stress, he said.

Bloomberg Business

by Martin Z Braun

October 29, 2015




Fitch Updates State Revolving Fund and Leveraged Muni Loan Pool Criteria.

Fitch Ratings-Austin-29 October 2015:  Fitch Ratings has published an updated report titled ‘State Revolving Fund and Leveraged Municipal Loan Pool Criteria’. This report replaces the report of the same title published on Oct. 22, 2014. There have been no changes to Fitch’s underlying methodology.

Read the Report.




Fitch: U.S. Public Finance Upgrades Exceed Downgrades for Sixth Straight Quarter.

Fitch Ratings-New York-28 October 2015:  During the third quarter of 2015 (3Q’15) and for the sixth straight quarter, U.S. public finance rating upgrades outnumbered downgrades, according to Fitch Ratings. The tax-supported sector had the largest share with 17 out of 42 upgrades across U.S. public finance. Despite ongoing spending pressures, the tax-supported sector has experienced modest revenue and financial stability. The number of tax-supported downgrades also decreased to four from 10 in 2Q’15.

Par value for upgrades exceeded downgrades this quarter. Moreover, the majority of downgraded par value (81%) was due to downgrades of debt in the Chicago area. The amount of downgraded par value reduced drastically from the quarter prior, largely due to the downgrades of Puerto Rico debt in 2Q’15.

Fitch downgraded 17 credits, which represented approximately 2.2% of all rating actions and $11.6 billion in par value. Fitch upgraded 42 credits, which represented 5.5% of all rating actions and $19.4 billion in par value. Strong financial position and operations were common factors cited for credit upgrades.

The number of Positive Rating Outlooks (119) in 3Q’15 exceeded the number of Negative Rating Outlooks (118) for the first time since 1Q’08. The number of Positive Rating Outlooks increased from the prior quarter, and the number of Negative Rating Outlooks continued to decrease. The number of Negative Rating Outlooks was at its lowest since 3Q’08.

A majority of the rating actions (84%) during the third quarter were affirmations. Furthermore, 93% of ratings had a Stable Rating Outlook at the end of the third quarter. Based on the present distribution of Rating Outlooks and Watches within U.S. Public Finance, Fitch expects ratings to remain stable for most sectors throughout the year.

The full report ‘U.S. Public Finance Rating Actions Third-Quarter 2015’ summarizes these rating actions by sector and can be found at ‘www.fitchratings.com’.




Fitch: USPF State Revolving Funds & Municipal Loan Pools Remain Strong.

Fitch Ratings-Austin-29 October 2015: U.S. Public Finance State Revolving Fund (SRF) and Leveraged Municipal Loan Pool (MLP) programs remain highly rated with strong performance, according to a new Fitch Ratings report.

‘These high (sector) ratings are largely attributable to the strong credit quality of the program pool participants, the financial strength of the programs’ structures or a combination of these two factors,’ said Major Parkhurst, Director at Fitch.

Reflecting the stability of the sector, there have been no rating changes to Fitch’s rated pooled programs since its initial peer review report in 2013. The majority of the metrics monitored by Fitch also remains the same or similar to those presented in Fitch’s 2013 and 2014 peer reviews.

For more information, a special report titled ‘SRF and MLP Peer Study’ is available on the Fitch web site at www.fitchratings.com.




How Muni Bonds ‘Yield’ 4% in a 2% World.

If you see fat 4% “yields” for the municipal bonds in your brokerage-account statement, don’t believe them.

Overstating the expected income on municipal bonds in brokerage or advisory accounts is one of the most pervasive and persistent ways the financial industry fools the investing public. It was going on when I was a cub bond-market reporter in 1988, and it’s still going strong. It’s high time investors fought back.

The Barclays Municipal Bond Index, a measure of the market for these tax-free bonds issued by state and local authorities, yields 2.2%. Even the Vanguard Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund, which specializes in municipal debt maturing many years in the future, yields only 2.3%.

So how can so many brokers and financial advisers be such astute bond-pickers that they can claim to be earning yields of 4% and up without jeopardizing your capital?

They can’t. Those yields are an illusion.

You would never know it from looking at your account statement, however. Brokers and financial advisers are able to report the yield on many municipal bonds without adjusting for an inevitable decline in their price—thus significantly overstating the income you will earn.

To understand why, note that in a world of low interest rates, bonds are often issued at a “premium over par,” or initial price greater than $100 per $100 of par or principal value. But they almost always mature—or are “called,” if the issuer buys them back before maturity—at $100.

Imagine this streamlined example: You pay $110 for a bond that pays 4% interest and matures four years from now. Each year, you will earn $4 in interest on each $100 you have invested in the bond. And when it matures, you will get $100 back—not $110.

So you will earn $16 in simple interest but lose $10 on your principal at maturity, a total gain of $6. Your adjusted return is nowhere near 4% per year; it’s approximately 1.5% ($6 divided by four).

Under federal accounting and tax rules, a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund would be required to report the yield on that bond as approximately 1.5%. A broker or financial adviser, operating under rules from an industry self-regulator called the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, can report it at 3.6% ($4 in income divided by $110). Your brokerage or advisory account statement excludes future losses (or gains) on the bond’s principal when it reports yield. It’s simply an incomplete picture of your money.

Alex Alimanestianu is the retired chief executive of Town Sports International Holdings, an operator of fitness clubs. In 2007, a year after the company sold stock to the public, he invested in a portfolio of municipal bonds through his brokerage account at Credit Suisse CSGN.VX -0.02%. Last year, Mr. Alimanestianu realized that the “estimated yield” on his account statements was overstating what he would earn from his munis.

Oddly, the broker disclosed the failings of its calculation. In a footnote, Mr. Alimanestianu’s account statements explained that “return of principal may be included in the figures for certain securities, thereby overstating them.” Morgan Stanley MS -1.70%, Charles Schwab SCHW -1.55% and many other firms make similar disclaimers.

Mr. Alimanestianu says the yields reported to him by Credit Suisse were “deceptive” because “part of what the bonds were yielding was my own money, the premium that I paid above what they’re going to pay me back.” He has since moved his municipal-bond holdings to Vanguard Group.

A Credit Suisse spokeswoman declined to comment.

A muni-bond portfolio manager says calculating yield this way is “a silly, antiquated, misleading measure that isn’t good for anything except putting the bonds in an unfairly good light.” While we were on the phone, he looked at sample account statements from several brokerage firms and found that none of them adjust yield for return of principal. “I didn’t even realize they all do it this way until you asked,” he said.

Should this change? “I don’t think [such disclosure] is misleading,” says John Bagley, head of market structure at the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board. “But could it be confusing to some investors? Yes, I think that’s possible.”

He adds, “we’ve done some education on this topic, but it’s something we may potentially look into more to improve transparency.”

In the meantime, ask your broker or adviser to tell you the “yield to worst” on your munis, adjusted for return of principal. If she can’t or won’t tell you, maybe you need a new adviser.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By JASON ZWEIG

Oct 30, 2015

— Write to Jason Zweig at [email protected], and follow him on Twitter at @jasonzweigwsj.




Jon Bon Jovi, the Jersey Shore and the Impact Investing Strategy.

The rock star Jon Bon Jovi was in London three years ago this week when Hurricane Sandy wiped out the New Jersey beach towns that played a big part in his childhood memories. He flew home to New York to be with his family and then headed south to his home state to see the devastation firsthand.

Mr. Bon Jovi used his celebrity to bring in relief money. He said he persuaded Gov. Chris Christie to put his hometown Sayreville, which was hit hard by the storm but is not on the coast, on the list of towns receiving federal money to buy home sites that couldn’t be built on again. He donated $1 million of his own money to Sandy relief and was one of the headline acts at a concert that raised $50 million more to help the affected areas.

Still, as often happens with disasters, money poured in right after the crisis, but the rebuilding took longer than expected. More than a year ago, Mr. Bon Jovi said in an interview, he and his wife, Dorothea, decided they wanted to do more to help the towns still far from their prestorm condition along the Jersey Shore.

That was when a financial adviser told them about impact investing as a way to finance redevelopment.

“It was interesting to us,” Mr. Bon Jovi said. “We’d never considered the concept of impact investing. In disaster relief, one is quick to write a check. Long after the TV cameras go away, people are still suffering.”

Impact and socially responsible investing have moved from the fringes to, if not the mainstream, pretty close to it. The strategies are now discussed by a range of investors, as diverse as environmentalists and rock legends. All are interested in having their investments perform a social good — housing for displaced residents or financing for local businesses — while also earning a return close to the market rate.

But that quest, noble as it sounds, presents another challenge: avoiding strategies that promise to do good but then go bad.

Selecting an investment to perform a dual role is only getting harder as impact strategies proliferate, all fueled by the money flowing to them. A report last year by the Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment said one out of every six dollars managed by professional investors was invested using socially responsible investing criteria.

And impact investing may now open up further. Last week, the Department of Labor made it easier for the retirement plans it regulates to consider factors like environmental, social and governance goals in making investments, even if the pure financial returns are less.

In some ways, how people select these investments should not be that different from how they choose other investments. But passion can cloud judgment. Few people are going to get emotionally attached to a domestic equity fund, but plenty of impact investors are passionate about how their investment dollars can improve educational outcomes.

“At the end of the day, we’re talking about investments designed to perform in a basic investment portfolio,” said Andy Sieg, head of global wealth and retirement solutions at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “These are not philanthropic activities masquerading as for-profit investments. Impact investments should stand on their own two legs in terms of investment return.”

Investors can start by assessing the returns and whether they are high enough to justify the risk taken to achieve them. They also need to look at the fees charged by the manager and how much those fees subtract from the return.

While this area is still relatively new, Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at ETrade, said investors should also try to analyze a manager’s track record.

“You want to have a long-tenured management team to properly assess what they’ve done,” he said. “You want a repeatable investment process. It’s difficult.”

But the desire to do good through investing makes applying these rational criteria challenging. Mr. Sieg said he recently dissuaded a client from investing in a fund that the client was excited about — a fund the client probably would not have considered if it hadn’t been marketed for its impact. After some investigation, Mr. Sieg said he concluded that the fund’s fees were too high and its impact too low to justify putting any more into it.

“We need to be clear-eyed about what we’re achieving with impact investing,” he said. “We’re going to be able to find impact vehicles with an environmental focus, a social policy focus, global impact, local impact.”

Carra Cote-Ackah, director of partnerships and strategic initiatives at the Center for High Impact Philanthropy at the University of Pennsylvania, said it is often easier for impact investors to work backward from what they want to achieve. If, she said, it is helping poor children learn to read, that should be the goal, and investors should then find a way to invest in organizations that are trying to achieve that.

Yet, she said, certain issues lend themselves to impact investing better than others. Arts, humanities and cultural organizations do not, she said. Disasters, like Hurricane Sandy, work well, as do initiatives aimed at chronic problems in disadvantaged communities.

“It’s more about the process and rigor of the approach than the issue,” she said. “I hope this approach is used in other disaster communities but also as a way to bring together investors, donors and community partners to drive social change.”

Maria Tanzola, a private wealth adviser at UBS Wealth Management Americas who is working with the Bon Jovis on their selection of impact investments, said UBS hoped to raise $100 million for debt and equity impact investments in New Jersey. With money from the Bon Jovis’s JBJ Soul Foundation and others, the company has raised about $10 million so far.

“Whatever return we get,” Mr. Bon Jovi said, “we’re putting back into the foundation.”

This strategy allows philanthropists to leverage the money in their foundations by putting it into impact investments so it does good while it grows before they give it away. “People sometimes think of their philanthropy as just the giving,” Ms. Tanzola said. “This investment strategy amplifies the philanthropy on the ground. It’s another way to support things that are important to you.”

But it’s also a way for less wealthy people to make a difference. “We determined that there was donor fatigue, but there was still an opportunity for an investment strategy,” she said.

The minimum investment in UBS’s Impact New Jersey portfolio strategy is $250,000. But Mr. Loewengart said ETrade’s retail clients have increasingly asked for impact options and the company now has more than 100 equity mutual funds on its service that market themselves as socially responsible.

On the debt side, the investments can be in loans to build homes and affordable rental apartments, mortgage-backed securities that are created from the loans, or municipal bonds to rebuild infrastructure.

In the case of the communities affected by Hurricane Sandy, many were beach towns that were not densely populated and so lacked the tax base to pay for municipal projects.

“This represents a form of coalition building within the private sector,” said David Sand, chief investment strategist and interim impact investment officer at Community Capital Management, which manages more than $2 billion in fixed-income impact investments and is investing the fixed-income portion of the Bon Jovi portfolio. “We see all kinds of potential opportunities in other markets in similar but not identical situations.”

Yet he said the fund often turns down opportunities in communities in need because the credit quality of the debt is not high enough or the returns are too low to hit its benchmark.

Success as an impact investor is unlikely to be measured in the kind of returns that allow easy benchmarking. For Mr. Bon Jovi, “it’s in rebuilding communities,” he said. “I’ve seen these families who didn’t know what to do. I think people want to invest in their community. Sea Bright — those beach towns were an important part of my childhood. I put my money where my mouth is.”

THE NEW YORK TIMES

By PAUL SULLIVAN

OCT. 30, 2015




Notice of Support Availability: Training and Technical Assistance Services for Pay for Success Initiatives.

This notice of support availability (NoSA) offers in-kind support in the form of training and technical assistance (TTA) services from the Urban Institute’s Pay for Success initiative (PFSI) to guide, design, and assess potential and existing pay for success (PFS) projects.

Urban is offering training and technical assistance only, not direct grantmaking or other monetary investment; the NoSA will not be used to distribute subgrants or other funding. The Urban Institute (Urban) anticipates making multiple TTA awards through this NoSA but reserves the right to select as many or as few recipients for support as it deems reasonable.

Submitting an application does not guarantee that an organization will receive support.

Download the pdf.

The Urban Institute

Issued: October 14, 2015

Kimberly Walker




Fitch: Work Force Evaluation Integral to U.S. Local Government Ratings.

Fitch Ratings-New York-22 October 2015: The relationship between a U.S. local government and its work force has become an important barometer into the strength of the government’s credit rating, according to Fitch Ratings in a new report.

As the largest component of local U.S. government spending, labor costs have come into greater focus since the most recent economic downturn, as well as state laws that govern work forces. Multiple laws can govern different types of employees, with laws in some states changing in recent years and more proposals on the table, according to Managing Director Amy Laskey.

‘The formal bargaining relationship between labor and management provides insight into the level of flexibility management has to adjust this key area of spending,’ said Laskey. ‘Contractual agreements are also important indicators of how quickly spending will grow and how quickly a local government will respond should a change in the broader economy require shifts in spending.’

Above all, the level of cooperation among parties and how committed they are to maintaining financial stability is Fitch’s preeminent indicator of a government’s ability to make adjustments necessary to maintain budget balance. As such, it is an important piece of Fitch’s methodology for local governments, currently in the form of an exposure draft for comment through Nov. 20. In short, a consistently applied work force evaluation is key to assessing the flexibility of main expenditure items.

‘Work Force Evaluation Key to Local Government Analysis’ is available for purchase here.




Fitch: Michigan's Statutory Lien Bill Would Raise Recoveries.

Fitch Ratings-New York-21 October 2015: If enacted, Michigan’s statutory lien bill will significantly improve recovery value if a municipality defaults, compared to other general creditors, including employees, Fitch Ratings says. However, it will not reduce the risk of default.

The legislation would also help improve investor views on the state’s local credits, which were damaged as a result of the losses bondholders suffered in the Detroit bankruptcy. Detroit’s unlimited tax general obligation bondholders recovered 74 cents on the dollar. Had this bill been in place, recoveries could have been higher.

The bill would place a statutory first lien on taxes that are subject to an unlimited tax pledge and require them to be held in trust for the bondholders. The state’s Senate is currently considering the legislation. Polls suggest it is favored by the legislature. However, some state officials, including Governor Rick Snyder, have voiced opposition to it.

In our view, failure to enact this law would be a credit negative for Michigan local issuers, as it indicates lawmakers desire to place bondholders on equal footing with ordinary creditors rather than providing additional security for bondholders. This would suggest that bondholders’ claims should be subject to full re-evaluation in a bankruptcy proceeding.

Similar legislation has been approved in California and New Jersey. In most cases, a statutory lien is a lien arising by force of a statute on specified circumstances or conditions. This lien is in contrast to a consensual lien, which is created by agreement, where both parties to a financing agree to a certain security structure and document that agreement in an indenture or loan document. Debt secured by special revenues is exempt from the automatic stay provisions in this code, protecting such debt from payment interruption in the event of a bankruptcy filing. This protection does not extend to bonds secured by a statutory lien, so timely payment is not guaranteed in a bankruptcy.




Moody's: PREPA's Planned Utility Charge Bonds Would Be Similar to Others in the Sector.

New York, October 22, 2015 — Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority’s (PREPA; Caa3 negative) anticipated issuance of new securitization bonds would carry risks that are typical of utility cost recovery charge (UCRC) bonds that we rate, such as legislative risk, servicing risk, customer payment delay and default risk as well as event risk stemming from severe weather conditions, Moody’s Investors Service says in a new report which outlines how those risks might present themselves in the specific circumstances of PREPA and Puerto Rico.

The planned issuance of the UCRC bonds via a debt exchange with PREPA’s uninsured power revenue bondholders is part of the utility’s restructuring plan, calling for these bondholders to swap their bonds for new debt at a discount, as described in PREPA’s “Ad Hoc Group Exchange Term Sheet” publicly disclosed on September 1st.

UCRC bonds are backed by surcharges on customer’s utility bills. Securitization issuance is predicated on passage of state legislation that authorizes and protects these surcharges, according to the Moody’s report, “Key Considerations of PREPA’s Planned Utility Charge Bonds Would Be Similar to Those of Other Deals in the Sector.”

“We view the risk of a legislative body changing or revoking utility charge legislation to the detriment of bondholders as remote in the outstanding UCRC securitizations that we rate, because a breach of the state non-impairment pledge would be a violation of the Contract Clause and the Takings Clause under the US Constitution and state constitutions,” says Moody’s Vice President — Senior Analyst Tracy Rice. “There is a risk in this type of deal that the authorizing legislation could be subject to a court challenge or to future political pressure for a jurisdiction to pass new laws that would rescind or revamp the charges. In assessing the credit risk of PREPA’s planned securitization, we would consider the previous positions taken by the Puerto Rican government.”

While the full details of a potential PREPA UCRC transaction are not yet available, Moody’s expects PREPA would be the servicer, responsible, among other things, for billing and collecting customer utility payments and segregating the securitization charge payments. The financial stability, ability and experience of the transaction servicer are key considerations in Moody’s credit analysis of UCRC securitizations.

“Although PREPA is the sole provider of electricity in Puerto Rico and provides an essential service, the quality of its servicing could deteriorate while the UCRC bonds are outstanding if PREPA’s financial condition does not improve or weakens, ” says Moody’s Rice. “However, we believe that a UCRC securitization would help PREPA achieve longer-term financial stability.”

By deferring and/or lowering its debt service through the securitization, the utility would be in a better position to cover its capital expenditures, which PREPA could use to help convert its largely oil-fired generation fleet of power plants to lower-cost and cleaner natural gas-fired plants, which would help PREPA save money and achieve longer-term financial stability, according to the Moody’s report.

The ability of a utility’s customers to pay the special charges, allowing for collections to be sufficient to meet the debt service requirements on the bonds, is another key consideration in UCRC securitizations. However, true-up mechanisms in UCRC transactions, which are written into the authoring legislation, adjust for all shortfalls, including those that result from customer payment delays and defaults.

“PREPA has many late-paying customers, including its largest customer, the Puerto Rican government, so this could be a concern, but one that a true up mechanism could mitigate,” says Moody’s Rice.

In Moody’s credit analysis of UCRC transactions, it also analyzes the exposure of the utility’s service area to severe weather-related events that could lead to a decline in energy usage and therefore cash flow to the deal. True-up adjustments in the transactions are designed to address any material deviations between the securitization charge collections and the required debt service amount.

Puerto Rico has significant exposure to weather-related event risk such as that stemming from a severe hurricane of the magnitude of previous storms in the region such as Hurricane Irene in 2011. “One mitigant to this risk is that PREPA has taken steps to put a significant portion of its wires underground, especially on the north side of the island,” according to Moody’s Rice.

The report is available to Moody’s subscribers here.




Muni Yields Hit New Low: It Costs $100 to Borrow $1 Million.

The disappearing yields are an outgrowth of the near zero-interest rate policy that the Federal Reserve has had in place since late 2008, when credit markets seized up after the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

That crisis also explains why few local governments are raising money in the floating-rate market, despite the record-low cost: Those bonds saddled them with soaring interest bills during the 2008 turmoil. When the derivatives that were supposed to protect against that risk backfired, governments paid billions in fees to escape from the deals. Only $9 billion of the securities have been issued this year, down from $128 billion in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chicago and other municipal borrowers in the past decade made bets on the future direction of interest rates through agreements with banks to swap interest payments as part of variable-rate demand debt issues. As rates fell under the Federal Reserve’s attempt to stimulate the economy after the financial crisis, many issuers ended up on the wrong side of the bets. Since then issuers have paid at least $5 billion to unwind the agreements.

Chicago’s attempt to clean up its legacy of wrong-way bets on interest rates has cost the city at least $270 million since Moody’s Investors Service cut its rating to junk in May, according to city documents.

“With news like that out there, these kinds of deals are not something we are going to see again anytime soon,” said Andrew Kalotay, chief executive officer of Andrew Kalotay, a New York-based advisory firm to municipal and corporate borrowers. “People are scared of them.”

Bloomberg News

by Darrell Preston

October 21, 2015 — 2:31 PM PDT Updated on October 22, 2015 — 7:59 AM PDT




Muni Tobacco Bonds Rally Most Since January on N.Y. Settlement.

High-yield municipal tobacco bonds rallied by the most since January after New York reached a settlement with cigarette companies that freed up $550 million of funds, fueling speculation that other states will follow suit.

Junk-rated tobacco bonds returned 2.1 percent on Tuesday, boosting 2015 gains to 13.4 percent, Barclays Plc index data show. The broad municipal market is up 2 percent for the year. Some bonds from Ohio’s Buckeye Tobacco Settlement Financing Authority touched the lowest yield in more than two years.

New York Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman announced a settlement Tuesday that releases money from an escrow account to the state, counties and New York City. The funds had been withheld since 2003 because of a dispute surrounding the 1998 settlement among states and tobacco companies. Now 90 percent of previously trapped funds will be released and the state has no risk of losing future annual payments as the result of arbitration proceedings.

That’s positive for tobacco bonds, which allowed states and cities to borrow against their settlements. The payments from cigarette companies are used to cover interest and principal bills on the securities.

“Tobacco companies are talking to New York — how could they not be talking to Ohio?” John Miller, co-head of fixed income at Nuveen Asset Management, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. Ohio is the largest issuer of tobacco bonds after New York among the nine states that won decisions in 2013 over disputed payments.

“If Ohio settled, it would release a huge amount of money,” said Miller, whose company oversees about $100 billion in munis.

Buckeye tobacco bonds maturing in June 2047 traded Wednesday at an average 86 cents on the dollar to yield 6.98 percent, the lowest rate since June 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The debt has ratings six steps below investment grade by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service because sharper-than-expected declines in smoking threaten timely payments to investors.

New York tobacco bonds due in June 2021 traded the most since February on the settlement. Unlike the majority of the securities, which carry junk ratings, the Empire State’s debt has the third-highest investment grade rank.

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta

October 21, 2015 — 8:24 AM PDT




Refinancing Wave Drives Record Muni-Bond Sales as Projects Wait.

The record pace of U.S. municipal bond sales is doing little to address the deteriorating state of the nation’s roads, bridges and other infrastructure.

With the Federal Reserve wavering on whether to raise interest rates for the first time in more than nine years, state and local governments are rushing to refinance debt instead as yields hold near a half-century low. They’ve sold more than $320 billion this year, the most for the period since at least 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The flood will continue as governments sell about $40 billion of securities a month for the rest of the year, according to Phil Fischer, head of municipal research for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York, the top underwriter of tax-exempt debt during the first half of 2015. Most of the sales are for refinancing as states and cities once battered by the recession remain wary of running up new debt for public works.

“This is an environment of low yields,” said Vikram Rai, head of municipal strategy in New York at Citigroup Inc. “It’s a great opportunity to actually fund this country’s infrastructure needs, and they’re missing out on that.”

The borrowing will cause the $3.7 trillion municipal market to grow for the first time since 2010, the last year of a federal program that subsidized bonds for construction projects. The dearth of new debt since and the refinancing wave has eased the fiscal pressure on state and local governments. Their annual interest payments slipped to about $188 billion by the end of June from as much as $204 billion in early 2013, according to U.S. Commerce Department figures.

Market Gains

The shift in supply hasn’t tempered the market’s gains, with tax-exempt debt returning about 2.1 percent through Oct. 19, according to Bank of America’s indexes. That’s about triple the return on corporate debt and more than the 2 percent gain for Treasuries.

Demand has been fueled by an influx of money into municipal-bond funds, which have received about $5.4 billion from investors this year, according to Lipper US Fund Flows data. Meanwhile, the refinancing has caused some debt to be paid off early.

“You’ve got really too much money chasing too few bonds,” said Robert Miller, a senior portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Asset Management, which oversees about $39 billion of munis. “There’s enough cash still on the sidelines to be invested where we can absorb additional supply.”

California is among borrowers that are refinancing. The most-populous state is selling about $961 million of general-obligation bonds Tuesday in an auction among underwriters. Last week, New York’s Long Island Power Authority raised $1 billion to pay off higher-cost debt.

It’s not a sure thing that the pace of refinancing will hold up, said Michael Johnson, managing partner at Gurtin Fixed Income Management, which oversees $9.7 billion of munis. Many borrowers probably did so earlier this year because of anticipation that the Fed would raise interest rates by September, he said.

“I would expect the pace of refundings to decline,” said Johnson, who is based in Solana Beach, California. “There was likely some front-loading of refundings due to an expected rise in interest rates.”

Building Needs

The long-brewing need to finance infrastructure projects may drive new bond sales if refinancings wane. Governments can’t keep putting off needed work on everything from mass transit lines to water and sewer systems, said Dan Heckman, senior fixed-income strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $126 billion of assets. The American Society of Civil Engineers has estimated that more than $3 trillion of such work should be done.

“It’s a lot of demand building up,” said Heckman, who is based in Kansas City, Missouri. “There’s a real good possibility that that will be the trigger that will change kind of this dynamic of new issuance.”

There’s a tendency for issuers to rush to the market at the end of the year, said Bank of America’s Fischer, who forecasts that bond sales will reach a record $450 billion in 2015. The bank estimates that only about a third of sales this year have raised new funds, instead of refinancing previously issued debt.

“I have a lot of confidence that we’ll get more infrastructure financing and the reason for it is I have chemistry on my side,” Fischer said. “Paint will not hold up the bridge.”

Bloomberg News

by Elizabeth Campbell

October 19, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on October 20, 2015 — 5:49 AM PDT




S&P: Debt Financing of Infrastructure Could Hurt States' Credit.

DALLAS — States will be hard­-pressed to maintain their credit quality if they attempt to fund infrastructure needs solely through traditional tax­-exempt debt financing, Standard & Poor’s said in a new report.

“According to our assessment, states won’t be able to solve the problem of inadequate infrastructure nationally solely through the issuance of traditional tax­-supported debt,” said credit analyst Gabriel Petek. “Putting a meaningful dent in the infrastructure deficiency will likely require a mix of traditional debt, public-­private partnerships, and additional federal engagement.”

States would have to issue an additional $1.19 trillion of debt through 2020 to fund their share of the $3 trillion of infrastructure investments regarded as necessary by the American Society of Civil Engineers, Standard & Poor’s said. That would raise state debt ratios to a 7.6% of gross domestic product, which S&P considers a high level, from the current and more moderate 2.9%.The states could contribute to reducing the national infrastructure deficit by acting individually to address more of their local needs, Petek said.

“In our view, most states have at least some capacity at current rating levels to issue additional debt,” Petek said. “However, the states as a group do not have enough capacity to finance, using traditional tax-­supported debt, their historical share of aggregate infrastructure costs without impairing their credit quality.”

State and local governments issued an average of $234 billion per year of tax-­exempt, new-money bonds from 1996 through 2010, the report said. However, in the wake of the Great Recession, new­-money bonds have averaged only $151 billion per year.

The pullback in debt issuance can be attributed at least in part to the recognition by states that the expense of operating and maintaining infrastructure can extend for decades, which adds significantly to total project costs, Petek said.

Public­-private partnerships offer a way to fold long-­term operations and maintenance costs into the overall project financing plan, he said, noting that most states already have P3 enabling legislation with more expected to follow.

“However, the P3 model can be complex and in certain cases states attempting P3 projects have encountered political opposition,” he said.

States cannot expect more financial support for highway projects from an increase in federal transportation funding in the next few years, Petek cautioned.

“Given that the federal government’s share of infrastructure project financing has been shrinking in recent years, we don’t currently anticipate a large increase in federal funding,” he said.

State and local governments could find their transportation funding further imperiled with the penchant by the millennial generation for shorter road trips in more fuel-­efficient cars, which curbs gasoline tax revenues, according to a separate new article from Beth Ann Bovino, Standard & Poor’s chief U.S. economist.

Millennials (those born between 1982 and 2000) tend to use public transit more than their elders and obtain drivers licenses at a lower rate and a later age, she said.

“This drop in funds available to construct and repair the country’s infrastructure could, in our view, weigh on growth prospects for U.S. GDP, as well as states’ economies, and, in some cases, where states and municipalities choose to replace the lost federal funds with locally derived revenues, could hurt credit quality,” Bovino said.

If the federal gasoline tax of 18.4 cents per gallon had been indexed to inflation when it was last raised in 1993, it now would be more than 30 cents per gallon and bring in $42 billion per year rather than the current $25 billion, she said.

THE BOND BUYER

by Jim Watts

OCT 20, 2015 2:04pm ET




S&P’s Public Finance Podcast: (Affordable Multifamily Housing and States’ Annual Debt Report).

In this week’s Extra Credit, Associate Alex North discusses the key findings from our recent articles on the affordable multifamily housing space, and Managing Director Gabe Petek reviews the State Group’s new annual debt report.

Listen to the Podcast.

Oct. 23, 2015




Fitch Tax-Supported Criteria Revision.

Tax-Supported Criteria Revision

Overview
Unprecedented challenges in US Public Finance and a divergence of opinion between major credit rating agencies led Fitch Ratings to conduct an in-depth review of factors that drive resilience—and spur divergent recoveries—in municipal credits. Leveraging qualitative judgment, fundamental data and an experienced analytical team, we are proposing revisions to our approach to state and local government ratings to more clearly articulate our assessment of credit quality to the market.

The criteria revision designates key factors that help differentiate credits in a concentrated, municipal ratings scale and shows why some credits are more resistant to risk than others. The framework also better differentiates between credits, defines triggers that change ratings, improves consistency of rating assessments, and highlights our through-the-cycle rating approach.

If you have questions or comments, please refer to the Contacts list on the right or send a note to [email protected].

TELECONFERENCE REPLAY: Revenue Sensitivity Tool for Tax-Supported Issuers
Fitch Ratings held a teleconference on its Revenue Sensitivity Tool for Tax-Supported Issuers on Wednesday, September 30 at 2:00pm EDT. Fitch Managing Directors James Batterman and Laura Porter gave an overview of the new tool.

WEBCAST REPLAY: Tax-Supported Criteria Requests for Comments
Fitch Ratings held a webinar on the exposure draft on Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00pm ET. Managing Directors Jessalynn Moro, Amy Laskey, and Laura Porter discussed proposed revisions to the criteria and gave an overview of new analytical tools and models, followed by a Q&A with webinar participants.

The research and commentary on this page is complimentary and only requires a one-time Fitch Research registration to view.

Exposure Draft: US Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
This exposure draft details Fitch’s proposed enhancements to its US tax-supported rating criteria. In order to highlight the most significant elements, the exposure draft applies only to the general credit quality of US states and general purpose local governments.

Proposed Tax-Supported Rating Criteria: Overview & FAQ
This executive summary highlights the most important features and goals of the criteria revision and answers some frequently asked questions.




House Transportation Bill Would Help Agencies at All Levels to Pursue P3s.

A House bill to fund transportation projects over the next six years would create a bureau within the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) to promote and support the use of innovative financing — including public-private partnerships — at all levels of government.

The House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee unanimously approved the six-year $325 billion Surface Transportation Reauthorization and Reform (STRR) Act of 2015 on Oct. 22, which would allocate $261 billion for highways, $55 billion for transit and about $9 billion for safety programs. The bill only guarantees three years of funding, however, The Hill reported.

The legislation would allow state and local governments to spend funding provided through the Surface Transportation Block Grant Program to establish P3 design, implementation and oversight offices and to pay stipends to unsuccessful bidders for these projects to encourage competition.

The bill would also create the National Surface Transportation and Innovative Finance Bureau to work with USDOT, states “and other public and private interests to develop and promote best practices for innovative financing and public-private partnerships.”

The bureau would advise state and local governments on how to access federal credit assistance programs and disseminate information such as funding case studies and best practices on P3 procurement, consideration of unsolicited bids, and tools used to determine appropriate project delivery models, such as value for money analyses.

The bureau would also be charged with reducing “uncertainty and delays with respect to environmental reviews and permitting” of transportation projects.

USDOT has already launched the Build America Transportation Investment Center to provide much of the expert assistance the bill requires the bureau to offer.

NCPPP

October 23, 2015




S&P State and Local Government Credit Conditions Forecast: Growth Rules, With Regional Variation.

The U.S. Commerce Department’s stronger-than-expected third estimate of second quarter GDP growth has led Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ economics team to edge up its forecast for U.S. economic expansion in 2015 to 2.5% from 2.3%, which was our forecast in June. An improved GDP outlook reflects that a range of important indicators point to a stronger economy throughout the remainder of 2015. Somewhat softer jobs reports in August and September, however, contradict the notion that the economy is in acceleration mode. Still, through September, year-over-year hourly wage increases of 2.2% remained similar to the 2.3% as of May — which was the strongest since 2011. Housing starts softened a bit in August but remain on track to top the 1 million mark at an annualized rate of 1.13 million. Building permits, a forward looking indicator, remain more favorable, having increased 3.5% in August to a 1.17 million annual rate, enabling our economists to maintain their expectation for about 1.5 million new housing starts by 2017.

Taken together, these key factors underlying the country’s economic performance should help state and local tax revenue trends gain some momentum. And even if the national economy is signaling a softer patch ahead, it will take time for that to flow through to state and local coffers. Either way, it’s crucial to remember that the underlying economic factors and their consequent tax revenue implications vary considerably by region. States, as well as localities more dependent on oil extraction, for example, are much less likely to lead the way in construction and housing starts. In fact, some of the housing construction now underway in some states — such as in South Dakota — could find that demand has already begun to dry up.

Overview

Continue reading.

20-Oct-2015




S&P: U.S. State Debt Levels May Be More Sustainable Than the Condition of the Nation's Infrastructure.

U.S. state tax-supported debt outstanding, in the aggregate, continues to increase but at a subdued pace. According to Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ calculations, total tax-backed state debt outstanding grew by just 1.9% in fiscal 2014. State debt balances have increased at anemic rates ever since the onset of the Great Recession (not including 2010 when there was a surge of issuance under the Build America Bond program). Given the widely acknowledged inadequacy of U.S. infrastructure, it’s tempting to summarily conclude that the slow pace of new debt issuance, which has persisted through an extended period of low interest rates, represents a missed opportunity. In our view, however, this interpretation of recent state debt trends is simplistic.

U.S. states navigated the Great Recession adroitly, for the most part, with their credit profiles intact. Policymakers have managed this difficult environment by maintaining a sustained focus on their states’ fiscal margins, which — already narrow — are likely to remain tight in the years to come. The Urban Institute reported that — as of February 2015, when states were crafting their budgets — aggregate revenue growth was expected to remain slow. The states anticipated revenue growth of just 1.7% and 1.2% for fiscal years 2015 and 2016, respectively, which would be well below the long-term growth rate of 2.5% (in real terms). (1) Likely in response to this slow revenue growth, lawmakers have recognized that the cost of new debt goes well beyond additional debt servicing costs and includes taking on new operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses.

Overview

Continue reading.

19-Oct-2015




Company That Sold a Record Muni Junk-Bond Is Back With an Even Bigger Deal.

Two years after selling what was then the biggest junk bond in the history of the U.S. municipal-securities market, a Dutch chemical company is back again with an even larger deal to build a methanol plant near Texas’s Gulf Coast.

OCI N.V.’s Natgasoline LLC plans to issue $1.4 billion of debt through Texas’s Mission Economic Development Corp. as soon as next week to finish work on the facility in Beaumont, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company, run by Egyptian billionaire Nassef Sawiris, is no stranger to the state and local bond market: its Iowa Fertilizer Co. backed a $1.2 billion junk-bond sale in April 2013.

The deal may be the largest offering of speculative-grade municipal bonds since March 2014, when Puerto Rico sold $3.5 billion, and comes amid a rally in the securities as investors seek higher returns with yields holding near a half-century low. The plant would almost double U.S. production of methanol, a business dominated by overseas companies and dependent on a steady supply of low-cost natural gas.

“Methanol might be a little bit tougher of a market than fertilizer in the Midwest,” said John Miller, who runs Nuveen Asset Management’s $10.9 billion municipal high-yield fund, the largest of its kind. He said he may buy some of the bonds, anticipating the yields could exceed 10 percent on taxable securities. “The yield differential is going to be gigantic.”

Debt issued for companies through public agencies is among the riskiest in the municipal market because governments aren’t on the hook if the projects fail. As a result, they offer higher payouts than state or city debt.

Iowa Fertilizer bonds were sold for yields of as much as 5.3 percent, about 3 percentage points more than top-rated debt, Bloomberg data show. With the new deal, the chemical company may need to pay more than it did in Iowa because the methanol industry would be affected by a worldwide economic slowdown, said Miller, whose company owns $219 million of the fertilizer bonds.

Such returns may draw high-yield municipal money managers who have had few new deals to chose from as their funds pulled in $758 million over the past three weeks, the largest inflow since January, Lipper US Fund Flows data show. This year, just $1.7 billion of municipal debt came to market with a speculative grade from one of the three largest credit raters, a sliver of the $320 billion in sales, Bloomberg data show.

The imbalance has fueled a rally in the debt, with high-yield munis returning 4 percent since the end of June, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Those returns stand in contrast to the rout in corporate junk bonds, which have lost 2.2 percent during that time.

Hard Sell

The project may be a hard sell with some municipal-bond investors who have little expertise with the chemical business. Jason Diefenthaler, who manages a high-yield fund at Wasmer Schroeder & Co. in Naples, Florida, said he’s steering clear.

“This is the kind of deal we usually strike off our list — the reality is we’re more traditional municipal-bond investors and these types of deals are a bit unusual,” Diefenthaler said. “We don’t feel like we bring expertise in the methanol industry.”

Natgasoline’s 518-page offering document details 25 separate risks to bondholders, including its limited experience producing methanol, which is used in paints, plastics, furniture and car parts. The company is also counting on natural gas prices remaining below the 25-year average of $4 per million British thermal units through 2024.

The offering statement says Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings will rate $1.2 billion of the taxable debt, though the grades have yet to be assigned. They’ll probably be ranked BB-, three steps below investment grade and the same as the Iowa Fertilizer bonds, said David Ambler, who analyzes high-yield munis at AllianceBernstein Holding LP in New York.

Hans Zayed and Omar Darwazah, spokesmen for OCI, didn’t respond to e-mails or voice messages seeking comment.

Challenging Importers

The company is seeking to capture a share of the 4.8 million tons of methanol that the U.S. imports annually. The Beaumont facility, expected to open in 2017, will have the capacity to produce 1.75 million tons per year, according to offering documents. That compares with 2 million tons generated in 2014 across the U.S.

“We’re seeing a sizeable increase in demand for methanol,” said Gregory Dolan, chief executive officer of the Methanol Institute in Alexandria, Virginia.

Beaumont, a city of 118,000 about 85 miles (137 kilometers) east of Houston, has one of the nation’s busiest ports. The plant will be “in the heart of the United States natural gas pipeline network,” according to offering documents.

OCI already has experience in the area. The company in 2011 acquired a methanol-production facility from Eastman Chemical Co. that’s two miles away from the new site, according to offering documents. It began producing the chemical in 2012.

OCI uses a case study of its Iowa Fertilizer plant as evidence that the bonds are a worthy investment. Of 13 nitrogen fertilizer projects that were announced across the country after 2010, only the Iowa facility received financing and is currently under construction, according to the report from Integer Research.

The bonds have also paid off: a $429 million portion of the debt maturing in 2025 last traded for an average of $1.08 on the dollar, a gain of 8.3 percent since they were first sold.

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta

October 25, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on October 26, 2015 — 5:49 AM PDT




The District of Columbia and Georgia Join the Growing Number of States to Enact P3 Legislation: Seyfarth Shaw.

Funding the maintenance or expansion of existing infrastructure and the development of new infrastructure is one of the key bottlenecks to global infrastructure development and has resulted in governments and the private sector turning to alternative project procurement methods. One such alternative is the public-private partnership.

Public-private partnerships, or P3s, are gradually becoming a mainstream form of large project procurement in the United States.

The District of Columbia and Georgia have recently joined in the momentum of support for P3 legislation. The DC P3 Act took effect as of March 11, 2015 and the Georgia P3 Act took effect on May 5, 2015.

DC P3 Act

The DC P3 Act establishes the Office of Public-Private Partnerships (P3 Office) which will be responsible for “facilitating the development, solicitation, evaluation, award, delivery and oversight of public-private partnerships that involve a public entity in the District”. The P3 Office, which is headed up by an Executive Director, is entitled to retain consultants and enter into contracts to provide financial, legal or other technical expertise necessary to assist in such administrative role. The P3 Office will essentially be the main point of contact for parties involved, or looking to become involved, in a public-private partnership.

Public-private partnerships are defined in the DC P3 Act as “a long-term, performance-based agreement between a public entity and a private entity or entities where appropriate risks and benefits can be allocated in a cost-effective manner between the public and private entities in which (A) a private entity performs functions normally undertaken by the government, but the public entity remains ultimately accountable for the qualified project and its public function, and (B) the District of Columbia may retain ownership or control in the project asset and the private entity may be given additional decision-making rights in determining how the asset is financed, developed, constructed, operated and maintained over its life-cycle.”

Projects that qualify as a potential public-private partnership include education facilities, transportation (e.g. roads, highways, public transit systems and airports), cultural or recreational facilities (e.g. libraries, museums and athletic facilities), buildings that are of beneficial interest to the public and are developed or operated by a public entity, utilities (e.g. water treatment, telecommunications, information technology), improvements to District-owned real estate or any other facility, the construction of which would, in the P3 Office’s opinion, be beneficial to the public interest.

A public-private partnership may be procured by process of a request for proposals or as a result of an unsolicited proposal. Via the process of requested proposals, a proposal will be evaluated against, among other criteria, the proposed cost and delivery time for the project, the financial commitment required of public entities, the capabilities and related experience of the proposer, a value-for-money and public sector comparator analysis, the inclusion of novel methods, approaches or concepts in the proposal, the scientific, technical or socioeconomic merits of the proposal, how the proposal benefits the public and other factors the P3 Office deems appropriate to obtain the best value for the District.

The District may consider, evaluate and accept unsolicited proposals from a private entity if the proposal addresses a need of the District, is independently developed and drafted by the proposer without District supervision, demonstrates the benefit of the proposed project to the District, includes a financing plan to allow the proposed project to move forward pursuant to the District’s budget and finance requirements and includes sufficient detail and information to allow the P3 Office to evaluate the proposal and make a worthwhile determination.

The DC P3 Act also sets out various terms required in any public-private partnership agreement, including the legal rights of the District with respect to the takeover or termination of a public-private partnership agreement.

Georgia P3 Act

On May 5, 2015, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal signed into law Senate Bill 59, known as the “Partnership for Public Facilities and Infrastructure Act” (the “P3 Act”). In simplest terms, the P3 Act amends the public works bidding portion of the existing Georgia Code to allow private companies to propose projects to the local and state governments. The local governments that may participate in the P3 Act partnerships are any county, municipality, consolidated government, or board of education. The state governments that may participate in the P3 Act partnerships are any department, agency, board, bureau, commission, authority, or instrumentality of the State of Georgia, including the Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia.

The projects proposed by the private entity must be “qualifying projects” meaning they must meet a public purpose or public need, as determined by the local or state government. The P3 Act does not apply to projects for generation of electric energy for sale, communication services, cable and video services, and water reservoir projects.

Guidelines and oversight for P3 Act projects take different approaches depending whether the partnership is with a local or state government. For partnerships with local governments, the P3 Act provides that a P3 Act Committee will be created to prepare model guidelines for local governments to use in implementing P3 Act projects. The P3 Act Committee is composed of 10 persons with varying backgrounds and qualifications as provided in the P3 Act. The appointments to the P3 Act Committee will be made by August 1, 2015, and the P3 Act Committee has until July 1, 2016, to issue model guidelines to local governments. With respect to partnerships with state governments, for qualifying projects undertaken by the State Properties Commission, the Georgia State Financing and Investment Commission will be solely authorized to develop guidelines, and for qualifying projects undertaken by Board of Regents, the Board of Regents will be solely authorized to develop guidelines for those projects.

For a project to become a reality under the P3 Act, it must proceed through the following series of steps outlined in the P3 Act:

1. For a local government, it must adopt the model guidelines or create its own guidelines including the required contents outlined in the P3 Act. A state government must use the guidelines established by the State Properties Commission or the Board of Regents.

2. To participate, a local government must adopt a rule, regulation or ordinance affirming its participation in the P3 Act process.

3. A private entity may submit an unsolicited proposal for a project to the applicable local or state government for review and determination as a qualifying project in accordance with its respective guidelines and the submittal requirements outlined in the P3 Act. For state government P3 Act projects, the unsolicited proposal must be submitted between May 1, and June 30, of each year.

4. A private entity submitting an unsolicited proposal to a state government must also notify each local jurisdiction and allow 45 days for the local government to comment on whether the proposed project is compatible with local plans and budgets.

5. The local or state government approves or rejects the unsolicited proposal. A local or state government may reject any proposal at any time and is not required to give reasons for its denial. If an unsolicited proposal is accepted as a qualifying project, the local or state government must seek competing proposals by issuing a request for proposals for not less than 90 days.

6. The local or state government will rank the proposals received by utilizing a variety of factors outlined in the P3 Act, such as cost, reputation and experience of the private entity, and the private entity’s plan to employ local contractors and residents. 7. The local or state government will negotiate with the first-ranked private entity and will continue to negotiate with subsequent-ranked private entities until an agreement is reached. Prior to entering into an agreement, the local or state government may cancel the requests for proposals or reject all proposals for any reason whatsoever.

8. The local or state government and the private entity enter into a comprehensive agreement. The terms of the comprehensive agreement include, but are not limited to, description of duties, timeline for completion, financing, and plans and specifications and the project begins.

Conclusion

By allowing partnerships between the private and public sector, P3 Acts create opportunities for governments to engage in new projects that would previously have been cost prohibitive. Under this new law, the private entities can take on design and construction costs previously borne by the government. Beyond that, P3 Acts will encourage investment in infrastructure and aid urban renewal.

Article by Alison Ashford, Eric F. Barton and Stephanie A. Stewart

October 12 2015

Seyfarth Shaw LLP

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.




Peering Under the Coupon.

Pimco veteran Joe Deane focuses on the reality of what’s backing up muni bonds. On the Municipal Bond fund, he teams up with David Hammer.

Early in Joe Deane’s career—back in the mid-1970s, when New York City was on the verge of bankruptcy—he learned a valuable lesson about municipal finance.

“What you have on a piece of paper is not going to matter nearly as much as what’s going on in the real world,” says Deane, now the head of municipal-bond management at Pimco. In other words, the realities of keeping a city afloat can trump paying municipal-bond holders.

New York City averted bankruptcy in 1975, but Deane’s fascination with municipal bonds was established. Forty years later, that era still resonates with Deane, who oversees $14 billion of municipal-bond assets at Pimco in separate accounts and 19 mutual funds.

Since the mid-1970s, numerous fiscal disasters have played out, most recently in Detroit and Puerto Rico. Deane, however, steered Pimco away from those troubled securities. “In 2012, when I was considering coming to Pimco, I saw they had a tiny exposure to Puerto Rico in their portfolios that shortly thereafter went to zero,” says David Hammer, 37, Dean’s right-hand man, whose duties include co-managing the $555 million Pimco Municipal Bond fund (ticker: PMLAX). “I looked at Joe’s position versus many in the industry, and thought it was a really smart position.”

Hammer, who began his career at Morgan Stanley, worked at Pimco in 2012 and 2013. He returned to Morgan Stanley briefly and then came back to Pimco in May, recruited by Deane and the allure of co-managing many of the firm’s municipal funds.

Neither Hammer nor Deane has an office, instead sitting next to each other on a trading desk in a midtown Manhattan skyscraper, an arrangement that allows them to communicate directly throughout the day. “I’m a little more big picture, and Dave is a little bit more about getting every trade done,” says Deane.

Deane, 68, adds that he will keep managing money for “as long as it is fascinating for me.” Outside the office, he is especially keen on downhill skiing and golf. “You never conquer golf,” he says. “You may conquer it for a day, a week, or a year, but it’s always changing. The same thing is true of the markets.”

Deane worked at the same firm from 1972 until 2011, although it went through multiple iterations. He began at E.F. Hutton, which became part of Smith Barney. That company was acquired by Citigroup, which swapped its asset-management business for Legg Mason’s brokerage business in 2005. Legg Mason owns Western Asset Management, a bond shop that is one of Pimco’s biggest competitors. Deane ran what is now the Western Asset Managed Municipals fund (SHMMX) from 1988 to 2011, during which the portfolio had an annual return of 6.5%, tops in its category, according to Morningstar.

Western is based just north of Los Angeles and Pimco, just south, but Deane, who grew up in Staten Island, has been steadfast about not relocating to Southern California.

Deane joined Pimco in July 2011, well into his 60s, in large part because he wanted to work with Bill Gross, Pimco’s co-founder, whose investing prowess Deane admires. Gross abruptly left Pimco three years later and last week sued his former firm, claiming that “a cabal of Pimco managing directors plotted to drive” him out of the company. Deane says he’s not concerned about the recent turmoil. “I viewed Pimco as the No. 1 bond firm in the world with Bill, and it’s still the No. 1 bond firm today,” he asserts.

Upon arriving four years ago, Deane immediately sold the fund’s stake in Detroit general-obligation bonds, and, by early 2013, had sold all of its Puerto Rico holdings, too. “There were so many deals that were done where all of the revenue just went to pay the debt service of other bonds that had been previously issued,” he recalls.

The fund now has a solid three-year annual return of 2.9%, besting 61% of its peers.

Clearly, for Deane, sound fixed-income investing comes down to zeroing in on “what’s backing this bond up.” That has been particularly true since the financial crisis, as the municipal-bond market has changed considerably. Many of the insurers that backed municipal bonds lost their AAA ratings or, in certain cases, went out of business. The upshot is that most municipal bonds coming to market today aren’t backed by insurance. “It reminds me very much of the market I grew up in—in the ’70s and ’80s—where credit quality was every bit as important as duration,” says Deane.

Many managers favor general-obligation bonds, since they’re backed by taxes that can be raised, if necessary, to pay back bondholders. But they can be subject to political pressure, Deane says, and a big worry has been increasing unfunded pension obligations, with the states of New Jersey and Illinois having especially bad problems. After Deane scaled back on GO bonds earlier in the year, he and Hammer changed course over the summer and snapped up some Chicago GOs. The city’s mayor, Rahm Emanuel, “has flat out stated that he is going to get a significant property-tax increase through,” says Deane.

DEANE TYPICALLY PREFERS revenue bonds, which are backed by the money generated by a specific entity—a water authority, for example. In Detroit, “revenue-bond holders were generally protected and unimpaired through the bankruptcy,” says Hammer.

Owing to a recent change in the flagship fund’s prospectus, the managers can hold as much as 20% of the portfolio in high-yield munis, up from 10%. They like tobacco master settlement agreement bonds, which grew out of a 1998 settlement between the major tobacco companies and most state attorneys general. As cigarette consumption has declined, the revenue backing these bonds has dropped, as well, increasing the likelihood that they might default at some point. However, even in default they will continue to pay out the funds they have, until all interest and principal is paid—an attribute that’s undervalued by investors.

It has been a tough year for municipal bonds, with increased issuance and concerns about when the Federal Reserve finally will raise interest rates. The fund is up a mere 1.1%, year to date. Still, Deane says he’s not worried. The portfolio is a bit more defensive today, with the coupons of many holdings at about 5%, with a tilt to shorter-term securities to offset duration risk.

“There are a lot of guys out there buying” bonds with lower coupons, he observes, “but that’s not where we want to go.” The 5% coupons tend to be less affected by rate hikes and offer more income to reinvest at the higher rates, says Deane.

BARRON’S

By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS

Updated Oct. 17, 2015 12:21 a.m. ET




S&P’s Public Finance Podcast (Rating Transitions in the Housing Sector).

In this week’s Extra Credit, Senior Director Larry Witte discusses the factors driving rating transitions in the public housing sector, and Senior Director Lisa Schroeer reviews the key rating actions we took on various entities across the country over the past week.

Listen to the Podcast.

Oct. 16, 2015




Fighting Wildfire With Finance.

The western United States is fighting an increasingly high-stakes battle with wildfire. At this very moment, 10 wildfires are raging throughout the state of California. Ten firefighters have already died this year protecting our forests and thousands more are at risk every day as wildfire season becomes longer and more intense each year. Unfortunately, these severe wildfire seasons are not an anomaly, but rather a taste of the new normal. At the same time, 92 percent of California is experiencing “severe drought” conditions, with research suggesting that this is likely the worst drought in 1,200 years. As climate change continues to create a hotter and drier environment this challenge too is expected to continue. Perhaps no one is affected by the drought more than California farmers, who last year received only 15 percent of water requested from the state. As a result, many are losing not only their crops but their livelihoods as well.

As the wildfires and drought persist, there is no denying that the well-being of our communities is inextricably linked to the health of our forests. As humans settled and built communities in and around forests, fires that would naturally burn and maintain healthy forest ecosystems have been suppressed, leading to severely overgrown forests with up to 10 times more trees per acre than nature intended. This incredible density creates the opportunity for a small burn to turn into a catastrophic mega-fire. Compounding this problem, high tree density reduces the amount of water available to local utilities due to increased precipitation evaporation and excess vegetation soaking up precipitation before it reaches our reservoirs.

While the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) recognizes the tremendous economic and environmental benefits to be gained from forest restoration — a significant reduction in wildfire severity, as well as up to 16 percent higher water volumes to local utilities — the government agency simply doesn’t have the financial means to undertake the project. The costs of fighting increasingly intense forest fires has severely limited the resources available for prevention activities. Annual fire suppression costs in the U.S. have ballooned from $450 million just 20 years ago to $1.6 billion (and growing) today. With a budget designed for a reality that no longer exists, USFS is trapped in a vicious cycle of paying for today’s fires by borrowing funds intended to prevent tomorrow’s. As droughts get longer and fires larger, this funding deficit for prevention-oriented activities will only widen.

It is clear that we need cost-effective, innovative solutions to build the resilience of the communities in dealing with both mega-fires and the drought. Recognizing that it costs up to 40 times more to put out a fire than prevent it, the private finance community has seen an opportunity to shape a solution that raises the capital needed to fund prevention efforts — not by donating, but by investing through a Forest Resilience Impact Bond. Spearheaded by Blue Forest Conservation, Private Capital for Public Good, and Encourage Capital, the Forest Resilience Impact Bond is a proposed new form of pay-for-success funding that seeks to leverage financial innovation to fund environmental conservation. The effort is funded by The Rockefeller Foundation’s Zero Gap portfolio, which focuses on shaping and supporting the next generation of innovative financing solutions through a venture philanthropy model that leans heavily on collaboration with both private and public sector partners. The inaugural Forest Resilience Impact Bond is being intended to raise capital from private investors to fund forest restoration designed to decrease burn severity and increase water availability for local utilities. Preliminary research suggests that investors are expected to earn market returns as real economic results — USFS cost savings from reduction in number and severity of fires, and increased revenue for water utilities as a result of increased water flow — are achieved.

As the USFS faces the impossible task of responding to more and more frequent mega-fires with a budget that cannot conceivably keep pace, financing mechanisms such as the proposed Forest Resilience Impact Bond can offer a solution that brings new capital and new thinking to the market. We need to focus our efforts on more than just fighting the wildfires and drought — we need to keep looking for creative financing solutions to tackle complex problems and build the resilience of our communities.

THE HUFFINGTON POST

Saadia Madsbjerg
Managing Director, the Rockefeller Foundation

Adam Connaker
Program Associate at the Rockefeller Foundation for Innovative Finance and Impact Investing

Posted: 10/12/2015 1:55 pm EDT Updated: 10/12/2015 1:59 pm EDT




Goldman Sachs Social Impact Bond Pays Off in Utah.

DALLAS – After three years of working with social impact bonds, Goldman Sachs achieved a milestone this month with a Utah preschool program that became the first to pay investors for the program’s success.

“Obviously, we find this success very encouraging, so we will continue looking at other opportunities,” said Andrea Phillips, vice president of Goldman’s Urban Investment Group. “But we will look at each program on its own merits and do our due diligence.”

Social impact bonds are a relatively new type of finance devised to deal with intractable social problems, such as prison recidivism, health programs or other issues that cost society or government in the long run.

The Utah program, established in 2013 by the United Way of Salt Lake City, sought to reduce demand for costly special education in the Granite School District by providing high-quality pre-kindergarten for children aged 3 and 4 years.

The preschool program was based on research conducted by Voices for Utah Children, an advocacy group for disadvantaged children.

While research showed that early childhood education could reduce costs throughout the child’s education, the majority of Utah 3 and 4-year-olds were not enrolled in pre-kindergarten. Utah was one of only 10 states that provided no state funding for high-quality preschool.

To help fund a high-quality pre-K, Janis Dubno, then director of early education policy for Voices for Utah Children, designed a “sustainable financing model” to illustrate that early childhood education investments could ultimately save money for Utah taxpayers.

Dubno’s model evolved into a results-based financing system that allowed private investors to cover the up-front cost of pre-K programming for at-risk 3- and 4-year olds, with the state reimbursing investors for each child who was considered at risk for later special education intervention upon preschool entry.

The “bond” was more of a bet that the program would work. Investors, who provided $4.6 million of upfront loans, would be paid back by the state if the program worked. A successful preschool program would save public funds by avoiding the high cost of special education services.

Thus, the program served a secondary purpose of demonstrating to legislators and other policy makers the cost effectiveness of early childhood education.

United Way of Salt Lake convened partners and investors to launch the first year and earmarked $1 million to serve as the repayment fund for the transaction’s first cohort of children. Salt Lake County added to the repayment fund and became the first government in Utah to embrace the pay-for-success model.

The Utah State Legislature in 2014 passed House Bill 96, the Utah School Readiness Initiative sponsored by House Speaker Greg Hughes, R-Draper. The legislation established the School Readiness Board, made up of appointees from the State Department of Workforce Services, Utah State Office of Education, Utah State Charter School Board, business leaders, and other individuals committed to advancing early childhood education in Utah.

The School Readiness Board is responsible for entering into pay-for-success financing contracts with private investors on behalf of the state.

In 2014, Utah signed a contract with United Way of Salt Lake, Goldman Sachs, and the Chicago-based J.B. Pritzker Foundation to fund the project for the preschool children.

Of the 595 low-income children who attended high-quality preschool financed by the SIB in the 2013-14 school year, 110 of the four-year-olds were identified as likely to use special education in grade school. Results showed that of those 110 students identified as at-risk, only one used special education services in kindergarten. The 110 students will continue to be monitored through sixth grade, generating further success payments based on the number who avoid use of special education in each year.

The successful results led to the first investor payment for any pay-for-success financing mechanism in the U.S. market.

“These results show that the pay-for-success model creates an opportunity to put taxpayer dollars towards what actually works, rather than following an outdated recipe that we once thought or hoped would work,” said Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams.

Total savings calculated in Year 1 for Cohort 1 are $281,550, based on a state resource special education add-on of $2,607 per child. Investors received a payment equal to 95% of these savings.

“Goldman Sachs is paid first,” Phillips said. “We expect to be repaid over seven years.” With a target base interest rate of 5%, the implied maximum return is about $5.5 million, according to a fact sheet about the program.

The initial investment of $1 million was considered proof of concept that represented the first phase of a $20 million commitment by J.B. Pritzker, Goldman Sachs and other private investors for the Early Childhood Innovation Accelerator, a fund designed to increase the availability of high-quality early childhood education while building a strong evidence-base of success.

While the Utah program was the first to pay off, Phillips said her group is anticipating similar results in a Goldman Sachs-funded program in Chicago.

Established in 2001, the Goldman Sachs Urban Investment Group has committed more than $4.5 billion for various projects.

Phillips, who earned her graduate degree at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, worked in nonprofit finance before joining Goldman in May 2010. She has guided the social impact bond initiative since Goldman issued the nation’s first one in 2012.

Goldman’s first social impact bond ended in August without the desired outcome. The program at Rikers Island in New York was designed to reduce recidivism among inmates. But results audited by an independent board showed no improvement, meaning the state would not pay off.

“While we certainly hoped for greater impact, we learned a great deal along the way and remain committed to investing in projects that support important public initiatives,” Phillips said.

Now that a SIB has shown success, Phillips said new research is needed to anticipate odds of success. Unlike traditional municipal bonds, social impact bonds have no credit ratings that could tell investors the degree of risk they are facing.

“As social impact bonds become more common, there will be a need for more metrics to determine a program’s chances of success,” she said.

THE BOND BUYER

by Richard Williamson

OCT 9, 2015 1:25pm ET




Miami-Dade Tries to Break P3 Mold.

BRADENTON, Fla. – Miami-Dade County plans to break the traditional P3 mold with what its leader calls an innovative capital program that could surpass $7.85 billion.

With 2.6 million residents, and more on the way, county Mayor Carlos Gimenez told a private industry forum last month that it is critical to find new ways to maintain and enhance the county’s infrastructure.

“As part of my goal to lead a more efficient government, one that stretches its dollars to the maximum extent, we need to look for creative solutions,” Gimenez said. “That is where opportunities lie for public-private partnerships.”

The county’s plan could entice investors to step out of their comfort zones because most P3s currently involve large stand-alone projects such as major toll roads, according to a global infrastructure financing expert.

Although Miami-Dade is still in the early planning stages of its program, Gimenez said the nation’s seventh most-populous county has already compiled more than 50 potential capital projects that will be studied to determine whether they will benefit from the public-private financing structure.

The projects run the gamut of those local governments have traditionally financed with general obligation and revenue bonds, including public works, cultural facilities, water and sewer, detention facilities, transit, parks, public housing, roads, aviation, and ports.

Project cost estimates run from under a million dollars to convert a toll plaza office into a restaurant to more than $2 billion for a federal consent decree-driven water and sewer improvement program.

Whether Miami-Dade is successful developing the capital plan depends on its structure along with the expectations of county officials and market participants, said Michael Likosky, who leads the infrastructure practice at New York-based 32 Advisors.

“Miami-Dade is seeking to develop an innovative approach to the market that very few entities have tried to do on an ambitious level in the United States,” said Likosky, whose credentials include working with local and state governments, the United Nations, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Clinton Global Initiative.

“It’s a tall order,” he said. “For me there is a clear path to success but it’s not particularly easy.” In the U.S., the P3 market has been the most receptive to working with single, large stand-alone projects, according to Likosky.

With little experience structuring comprehensive municipal capital plans with public-private partnerships, the development of such a program must be realistic and contain prioritized projects because the finance and construction side of the P3 market is inclined to be inflexible, he said.

“There tends to be a cookie-cutter approach now that will fund certain projects of priority but will not fund the rest,” Likosky said. “The job of a public entity is to determine how to leverage the bankable stuff in order to finance the non-bankable stuff.” Miami-Dade County is not alone in seeking alternatives to debt to finance a wide array of projects.

Rating agency analysts believe that growing unfunded infrastructure needs and budget concerns will help drive further use of P3 contracting into sectors other than transportation. The contracts between the public and private sectors will allow state and local governments to design, build, finance, operate and maintain government-related infrastructure for a fixed period of time, Moody’s Investors Service said in a September report.

P3 contracts will allow governments to bring private capital to new sectors such as housing, higher education, and water and sewer, according to Moody’s senior analyst John Medina. As an example, Moody’s cited the Next Generation Kentucky Information Highway System, a first-of-its kind P3 to bring high-speed Internet to a state where the service has lagged the rest of the country.

Kentucky issued $230.05 million of 30-year tax exempt bonds for the project in August to finance a 30-year concession agreement with a consortium whose main investors are Macquarie NG-KIH Holdings Inc., Ledcor US Ventures, and First Solutions LLC.

Standard & Poor’s analyst John Sugden said P3s offer an alternative way of delivering large projects, though acceptance of the mechanism has been slow for some areas.

“We expect that the states with established P3 programs will continue to use P3 financing,” Sugden said in a special report last month.

However, the size, complexity and lack of uniformity in concession agreements have created high start-up costs for some governments and created a barrier to greater adoption of the model, he added.

Some P3 obligations are considered debt, depending on the structure, and can be factored into credit ratings, the S&P report noted.

P3 programs don’t come without risks, said Municipal Market Analytics partner Matt Fabian. “Like swaps, P3s can be highly complex, long-term arrangements that are difficult to restructure if needed,” Fabian said Tuesday.

P3s, like swaps, can also create an accelerant to unexpected credit troubles, he added. “To the extent issuers are using P3s to avoid the characterization of their obligation as debt, it raises serious concerns about the issuer’s disclosure practices and willingness to pay,” Fabian said.

In July, he warned municipal investors to be wary of local issuers engaging in P3 transactions, particularly in states that are actively encouraging the financing technique.

The complex relationships and unique risk allocation in each P3 transaction imply a need for financial and legal sophistication and revenue raising flexibility that cannot be counted on among all local governments, he said.

A case in point, Fabian said, is the Virginia Route 460 project. The P3 was cancelled in part because the state failed to obtain final permits, leaving Virginia on the hook for about $300 million for a road that will not be built.

Fabian said Virginia is well-known for being ahead of the curve in terms of its P3 strategy and use, though at the time the Route 460 project was approved political pressure influenced the decision to move forward with the higher-risk project without adequate transparency and oversight.

As a result, Virginia enacted legislative changes to the process for approving P3s that includes the formation of an advisory committee to determine if potential projects are in the public’s interest.

In Miami-Dade, county commissioners are proceeding cautiously to develop the capital program they hope will serve both the public and private sector. The entire P3 program has been in development for several years.

Last week, commissioners appointed the final two members of a 15-member task force that will make recommendations on how the county advances the use of P3s.

The task force members include those involved in P3 projects, attorneys specializing in infrastructure finance, and experts in planning, construction, engineering, architecture, and banking.

Miami-Dade is also hiring P3 legal and financial advisors, including a pool of consultants for the county’s massive sewer improvement program.

Sikorsky said the county needs a clear strategy to develop the final comprehensive capital plan. “We know in the muni context that it’s pretty clear there’s a strategy for doing that with a GO or revenue bond, but in a P3 that doesn’t exist,” he said. “There’s no off-the-shelf solution.” Banks and investors will only pay for certain types of projects, such as those with a revenue stream, so the capital plan should use P3s for large, stand-alone projects and include other financing mechanisms.

“If you associate all of the projects with P3s, then all this isn’t going to get done,” Sikorsky said. “I think they should be after a public-private plan, and P3s are one type of [financing] deal.” While the task will not be easy or straightforward, he said Miami-Dade is attempting to create an ambitious program that could shift P3 market dynamics.

“I think the unique aspect to it is that people typically think about bringing a P3 project in stand-alone way to market,” Sikorsky said. “So it’s very unique in the U.S., and innovative, to think about an entire capital plan, and I have to give credit to them for doing so.”

THE BOND BUYER

by Shelly Sigo

OCT 14, 2015 12:16pm ET




As Retirees Outnumber Employees, Pensions Seek Saviors.

Desperate for more money, public pension systems have been making high-risk investments hoping for a higher profit. But they may ultimately cost taxpayers more.

The $300 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System began showing its age this year: It started paying out more money to retirees than it gained in contributions and investments. In roughly 20 years, CalPERS’ retirees will outnumber active workers by a ratio of nearly 2-to-1 in some of its plans.

In fact, a lot of state and local pension systems are already showing their age. Back in the 1970s, the typical pension fund had four to five times more active employees than it had retirees. Today, that ratio has slipped to 1.5-to-1 and is falling.

In the investment world, financial planners advise older individuals to steer their retirement accounts toward more conservative, fixed-income investments, such as bonds. The idea is to reduce the risk that an investment could turn south just when it’s time to start withdrawing funds.

But most pension plans have been doing the exact opposite. In search of high returns, they have been turning to alternative investments. The focus has mainly been on hedge funds and private equities. Hedge funds are investment pools in high-risk assets that are aggressively managed for big or so-called absolute returns. Private equity funds pool money to buy companies with the goal of selling them or taking them public for a profit. Both funds’ managers typically charge 2 percent of the total investment value as a fee (roughly twice the rate of more traditional fund managers), and managers take a 20 percent cut of the profits. They are by their very nature opaque, built on secret investment formulas that make tracking money in the funds next to impossible. The investments have been sold to institutional investors as a way to diversify and lower a plan’s dependence on the swings of the stock market. But many are now questioning whether, for public pension plans — especially maturing plans that are paying out more than is coming in — these high-risk, high-fee investments are worth it.

CalPERS has decided that hedge funds aren’t. Last year, the system announced it was divesting the $4 billion it had in those funds as part of the system’s “flexible de-risking” strategy, investor-speak for making the pension system more conservative as it enters its golden years. The pension board is also evaluating ways to step down its assumed rate of return, a move that would reduce the pressure to take investment risks.

CalPERS is among a few pension systems that are dialing back enthusiasm for alternative investments. But concerns have been mounting for years. The lack of transparency and high fees paid out in these types of investments have contributed to pay-to-play scandals in at least three states. An investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into 400 hedge funds found that half charged bogus fees and expenses. This summer, 13 state treasurers penned a letter to the SEC calling for regulations requiring that private equity firms more clearly outline the types of fees they charge.

Still, becoming a more conservative investor — even to reduce risk — is politically difficult. When pension funds reduce the expectations of what they will earn per year on their investments, governments may have to increase the amount of money they — or their employees — pay into the fund. So in the current investment market where low-risk bonds offer minimal returns, some pension systems continue to shift their money into high-risk assets. But these attempts to beat the market come at the expense of transparency, and they may ultimately cost taxpayers more.

Most pension portfolios have a long-term investment return target between 7 and 8 percent a year. Historically, plans achieved that with relative ease. But a lot has changed in the past 20 years. In 1992, the median pension fund’s assumed rate of return was 8 percent, and U.S. Treasury securities paid out 7.67 percent, according to an analysis by the Pew Charitable Trusts and the Arnold Foundation. That means a pension portfolio’s overall investments only had to perform slightly better than the bond market — not a very big gamble. By 2012, pension plans had lowered their return assumptions to a median 7.75 percent, but the 30-year Treasury bond returns had plummeted to just under 3 percent. The pressure on pensions to boost investment returns intensified tenfold.

Other factors have made things worse. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, many governments took funding holidays. Thanks to robust returns on stock market investments, half of all state pension plans were fully funded, according to Pew research. Meanwhile, state legislators increased benefits for retirees without increasing funding — adding to the long-term liabilities of their pension plans. The 2008 recession soured the investment picture, but pension funding ratios were already on the decline. State plans were funded on average at 85 percent of liabilities in 2006, according to Pew. By 2014, it was 74 percent, a Governing analysis found.

With strained budgets, most governments have not rushed to put extra money into their retirement systems. That puts pressure on pension plans to make up the difference. “This whole system works as long as governments are willing to make their payments no matter what,” says Donald Boyd, director of fiscal studies at the Rockefeller Institute of Government. “So now pensions are relying more on investments than ever before. It makes you feel as if they’re trying to fix a problem that wasn’t their making.”

According to data from the Boston College Center for Retirement Research (CRR), the typical pension fund a decade ago had about 1 percent of its assets sitting in alternative investments. By 2013, that had ballooned to 14 percent — a value of nearly $1 trillion. Some plans invest far more. Pennsylvania’s teachers and state employees plans — which both face benefits cuts as the state struggles to fund them — have more than 40 percent of their money in alternative assets, according to the CRR.

The appeal is in the returns the funds produce. In fiscal 2015, the pensions’ public equity portfolios (a.k.a. stocks) did not perform well. Private equity portfolios, however, came in with returns that were near or at double digits. Hedge fund returns were far lower, and most pension plans have reported their overall fiscal 2015 returns were less than 5 percent for the year.

One reason hedge funds may not be helping the bottom line could be their fees. Pension officials have maintained that the high fees associated with alternative investments are worth the above-average returns. But studies show that low-cost indexed funds (low-fee portfolios that replicate the movements of a specific financial market) can outperform hedge funds for a fraction of the cost. Recently The Economist compared the return from an S&P-indexed portfolio and the average return from hedge funds. The analysis found that the indexed portfolio easily outperformed the hedge funds. In other words, as The Economist put it, “hedge funds are a very expensive way of buying widely available assets.” In keeping with that logic, Nevada Chief Investment Officer Steve Edmundson last year began moving the state pension funds’ stock and bond investments into securities that track market indexes.

For CalPERS, which has been invested in hedge funds for more than a decade, it was time to call it quits. The hedge fund program “wasn’t having a significant material impact,” says Cal-PERS spokesman Joe DeAnda. “At the same time it’s very complicated, very complex, and the fee structure is higher.” In order for the absolute returns to potentially have a larger impact, CalPERS would have to invest a lot more than $4 billion out of its $300 billion portfolio. “There wasn’t a strong desire to go that route,” DeAnda says.

Of even greater concern for some is the lack of transparency in how these funds operate and in how they are charging fees. “With alternative investments, all I have is a contract. I can’t see the assets,” says Chris Tobe, a former Kentucky Retirement Systems trustee and author of Kentucky Fried Pensions, a book alleging a culture of corruption surrounding the fees the system paid to managers. “The numbers on it are the numbers [the managers] decide to give to me,” he adds. “I’m not allowed to look under the hood.”

Hank Kim, the executive director of the National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems, admits “it’s entirely appropriate” to ask whether a public plan should be investing in a very opaque arena. But he likens the situation to a Coca-Cola shareholder asking the soft drink company to reveal its secret recipe. “The question is what is proprietary for a business,” he says. “For private equities and hedge funds, their business model is the secret sauce.”

The lack of transparency leads to a lot of confusion about where pension plans’ money is going. Fees to asset managers are inconsistently reported, which makes it impossible to reasonably compare pension plans. For example, South Carolina’s retirement system in 2013 paid $500 million in fees to asset managers — the same amount that New York City paid in fees for a portfolio more than five times bigger. A follow-up report released earlier this year by the fund analysis firm CEM Benchmarking — and commissioned by the South Carolina Retirement System — found that the state discloses more fees than is typical. In fact, the report estimated, pension funds are disclosing less than half of the private equity costs they actually incur.

In worst-case scenarios, the secretive environment can lead to scandal. In the late 2000s, the SEC investigated funds in California and New York, alleging that investment firms made improper payments to politically connected middlemen in exchange for investments from the pension funds. In New Mexico, the state’s investment account and teacher pension fund lost an estimated $150 million as a result of politically driven investment decisions that underperformed. The scandal drew multiple lawsuits and a guilty plea to tax evasion by a former broker.

As alternative asset managers openly target institutional investors, there may be an opening for public pensions to demand more transparency from them. While state treasurers have called on the SEC to apply pressure, some pension systems are already demanding better transparency. CalPERS, frustrated with the lack of uniformity in the data it receives from its private equity managers, developed its own reporting template. DeAnda says the system soon plans to use that data to publicly report its private equity cash flow.

Pension systems can also do a better job of disclosing all the fees they pay. Rhode Island’s treasurer recently pushed through a new investment policy requiring transparency from investment managers to disclose all fees, expenses and fund-level performance. It’s a turnaround from the previous treasurer, now-Gov. Gina Raimondo, who drew criticism by refusing to disclose information related to fees and performance while shifting more state investments into alternatives.

But pension systems cannot truly act independently of lawmakers. For instance, many need approval from lawmakers to lower their long-term investment return assumptions. While CalPERS does not have that restriction, politics is still at play in determining how quickly the system can implement some of its decisions. Its plan to lower its return assumption, for example, would take place over a decade. “If [pension plans] were really independent, they wouldn’t care what lawmakers thought,” Boyd says of the overall dilemma state and local pension plans face. “They’d lower their assumptions, become a lot more conservative and ask the governments to pony up now. It’s a very, very difficult situation to be in.”

GOVERNING.COM

BY LIZ FARMER | OCTOBER 2015




How Blacksburg, Va., Got So Many People to Go Solar.

Dozens of U.S. communities have launched similar programs, but Blacksburg, Va.’s is different.

Solar is cheaper than it’s ever been before. The cost of installing solar panels on the average home has plummeted 70 percent since 1998. Nevertheless, the upfront costs of installing panels still require a decent chunk of change. That’s where a program like Solarize Blacksburg comes into play.

Blacksburg, Va., a city of about 50,000, launched the program — the first of its kind in Virginia — early last year in an effort to get more city residents to go solar. Working with installers, the city, along with community partners, negotiated a substantial discount for homeowners, lowering costs by 16 percent to an average savings of $3,256 per installed solar array. Today, it costs about $26,000 to install 5 kilowatts on an average home, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Solarize Blacksburg is not unique. Rather, it’s one of many “solarize” campaigns. The model started in 2009 as a grassroots effort to help residents of Portland, Ore., overcome the financial and logistical barriers to installing solar power. Since then, dozens of communities across the U.S. have launched their own versions of a neighborhood collective purchasing program.

Blacksburg’s version differs from past programs in that it “puts demand last,” says Chase Counts, energy efficiency program manager for the nonprofit Community Housing Partners, which helps run Solarize Blacksburg. Other solarize models typically start when a neighborhood or team of neighbors get together, form a co-op, and then vet and choose a contractor that will perform all of the solar installations. “We chose a different kind of model where we actually find the contractors upfront,” says Counts. “We get them to agree to specific pricing options, different technical specifications and then we drive the demand from there.”

And drive demand it did. Solarize Blacksburg saw residential solar quadruple in the six months after its launch. The results surprised program officials because they weren’t sure whether solar would catch on in the state at all. One reason for the skepticism is that Blacksburg is a college town, home to Virginia Tech, and therefore the housing is 70 percent renter-occupied. Another reason is that Virginia’s energy policies aren’t especially favorable for solar. “The solarize model has spread largely in states that had very friendly solar energy policies,” says Carol Davis, Blacksburg’s sustainability manager. Given the state’s regulatory framework, she says, “Solarize Blacksburg was a gamble.”

But Solarize Blacksburg and a follow-up program to it, Solarize Montgomery, were both enormously successful. More than 800 people combined signed up, largely because there was “so much pent-up demand for residential solar that hadn’t been tapped in the state,” says Davis.

Both Solarize Blacksburg and Solarize Montgomery, which is the county in which Blacksburg is located, were one-time programs. “We didn’t want to create the community impression that these solarize programs will be ongoing,” says Counts. “That might result in potential participants thinking, ‘Well, I won’t sign up this year because they are going to run it next year, so I will just wait again.’”

So Solarize Blacksburg and Solarize Montgomery were never meant to be ongoing. As city officials started planning the program, they looked at what had happened with other solarize programs. “While we were really excited about the prospect of this huge bump in residential solar when the program was live,” says Davis, “what we saw that came next was actually the most encouraging. After a program closes out, it seems to jump-start the adoption of solar in the community.”

In fact, a study by Yale and New York universities found that residents are more likely to install solar if other systems have already been installed in the community. Ten additional installations in a given ZIP code, the study found, increased the probability of adoption by 7.8 percent. “That’s why we’re not doing another program,” says Davis. “We gave solar a push. Now we want it to move on its own, and we’re seeing evidence that it is.”

In Montgomery County alone, solar use grew by 273 percent from December 2012 to July 2015. “Since we launched the Solarize campaign — we won’t take 100 percent of the credit, but we’ll take a good bit of the credit — residential solar has more than doubled across the whole state,” says Davis. Indeed, Solarize Blacksburg has had quite a ripple effect: To date, at least 25 other Virginia communities have followed Blacksburg’s lead and created solarize programs. Since 2012, residential solar has grown by 122 percent across the state.

GOVERNING.COM

BY ELIZABETH DAIGNEAU | OCTOBER 2015




What a Little Dose of Privatization Could Do.

When an agency fails as spectacularly as the Boston region’s transit system has, it’s time for some competition.

Many conservatives hail privatization as the magic bullet to fix bloated government bureaucracies. Many liberals reflexively dismiss it as putting profits before people. The truth, of course, lies somewhere in the middle. And sometimes it takes a crisis to show exactly where privatization could work for taxpayers.

One of those places is the Greater Boston’s region’s transit agency. There can be little doubt that the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA), is in crisis. Last year’s record snow and cold, along with the damage inflicted by a $7.3 billion maintenance backlog and huge payments to service the nearly $9 billion it owes in debt and interest, finally brought the system to its knees.

Since that time, MBTA’s leadership has been replaced, a winter resiliency program has been implemented, and the authority has won a three-year reprieve from Massachusetts anti-privatization law.

Government panels and think tanks are among the organizations that have focused on the MBTA in the wake of last winter’s meltdown, and the data they have developed should guide MBTA policymakers as they try to emerge from what would be called bankruptcy in the private sector.

One idea that should be pursued is opening MBTA bus-maintenance services to private competition. A study by former Massachusetts Inspector General Greg Sullivan for the Pioneer Institute (I am affiliated with Pioneer as a senior fellow but was not involved in the preparation of the report) estimates that competitive procurement would save the MBTA about $50 million annually.

Sullivan found that in 2013 the MBTA had the highest maintenance costs per hour of bus operations of any of the nation’s 425 bus transit agencies. The costs are largely attributable to high staffing levels and labor hours per vehicle mile.

Sullivan’s numbers mirrored federal data. According to the Federal Transit Administration-sponsored Integrated National Transit Database Analysis System, MBTA’s total bus-maintenance costs were not only higher than any of its peers (Atlanta, Baltimore, Miami, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.), but its maintenance cost per vehicle revenue mile was a stunning 92.2 percent higher than the average of the five agencies. Clearly, bus maintenance is a service that could benefit from competitive procurement.

Other privatization opportunities have also emerged. Last year, the MBTA reinstituted late-night service on weekends, running until 2:30 a.m. instead of 1 a.m. Businesses pledged to help support the service, which had been tried before and shut down in 2005 due to lack of riders, but their contributions have fallen short of promises. Like any transit agency, the MBTA also has a number of regular bus lines with lower ridership.

Rather than discontinuing low-ridership lines and late-night service, the authority could reduce its losses by using smaller buses to provide both. But the MBTA has only full-size buses, making these services two more candidates for competitive procurement.

When he won a three-year reprieve from Massachusetts’ anti-privatization law, Gov. Charlie Baker said he had no interest in large-scale MBTA privatization, which could quickly turn into a political and substantive quagmire. But experience has taught us that less-ambitious forms of privatization, such as the targeted use of competitive procurement, can pay dividends that make it worth wading into the ideological waters.

GOVERNING.COM

BY CHARLES CHIEPPO | OCTOBER 16, 2015




Instead of Fighting, Some Cities Team Up With Airbnb and Uber.

State and local governments have had a tumultuous relationship with Uber, Airbnb and other online companies that let people book rides, rooms, and goods and services from people rather than big businesses. Observers have focused a lot of attention on government attempts to control peer-to-peer services, yet some state and local governments are trying to use the sharing economy to their own benefit.

So far, the efforts have been limited. Most recently, Uber announced a partnership with the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children in 180 cities to send Amber Alerts to their drivers. But interesting models have emerged in a couple of other areas.

Emergency Preparedness

Several companies use technology to let people book stays at other people’s houses instead of hotels. The biggest is Airbnb, which is expected to generate more than $850 million in revenue this year and by some estimates is worth more than the Marriott hotel chain. In 2012, when Hurricane Sandy hit the Northeast, some 1,400 Airbnb hosts — people who rent their rooms to others — listed their lodgings at no cost for people displaced by the storm. Since then, Airbnb hosts in other cities around the world — including Toronto, San Diego and Atlanta — have offered free rentals to displaced people during local emergencies.

In 2014, Portland, Ore., struck up an agreement with Airbnb to help streamline disaster response in an emergency (the city passed legislation allowing short-term rentals). Airbnb now identifies hosts who are willing to help and shares that information with the city. In return, Airbnb waives its service fee to hosts who offer free lodging. The company also trains hosts to prepare for emergencies and uses its app to notify users about possible crises. San Francisco’s Department of Emergency Management has a similar partnership with Airbnb.

Typically during an emergency, the Red Cross provides food and shelter to displaced people and families, and “people will also find shelter on their own, usually at local hotels and motels,” said Dan Douthit, the public information officer for Portland’s Bureau of Emergency Management. But available rooms can fill up quickly. “This agreement adds capacity; it isn’t meant to replace what the hospitality business provides,” he said. The hotel industry also lacks Airbnb’s database of hosts, which gives the city a real-time list of the number of lodgings available and where they’re located.

No emergency has happened in the Portland area that’s called for Airbnb hosts to help out so far. Douthit believes an earthquake would be a likely scenario, but a flood or major fire could put the agreement into action.

Transportation

Uber, the ride-booking service, has become popular in most major cities, and at least one local government sees an opportunity to work directly with the company.

Macomb County, Mich., located north of Detroit, has turned to Uber to provide door-to-door transportation for people who receive a summons for jury duty. The pilot project, launched in July, gives each juror an Uber code that covers a $20 ride to the courthouse (which Uber offers the county for free) on the morning of jury duty. County Clerk Carmella Sabaugh said the service gives jurors a safe ride to the courthouse and helps them avoid the hassles of limited parking in the area.

Local taxicab companies expressed concern about competition from Uber, but none were willing to offer free rides. Uber, which already offers a free ride to first-time customers, agreed to extend the offer to jurors for a trial period when approached by the county. Since 2004, the county has offered jurors free bus rides to the courthouse, but public transportation is limited, making Uber a convenient way for jurors to travel.

Macomb County’s pilot is believed to be the first of its kind in the country. Depending on its success, the program could be continued beyond the trial period in Macomb County and expand into other counties in Michigan, Michael White, the general manager for Uber Michigan, told the Detroit Free Press.

Ride-booking services are also helping local governments transport disabled travelers.

In July, Uber launched UberACCESS, a pilot program that adds wheelchair-accessible vehicles to its services in Austin, Texas. Similar programs already operate in Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Portland and San Diego.

Meanwhile, Seattle passed an ordinance creating a 10-cent surcharge on every ride originating in the city with the several ride booking firms that operate there. The money will be used to help drivers defray the cost of owning and operating a wheelchair-accessible taxi, according to the Shared Use Mobility Center.

It’s too early to tell how successful these arrangements will be for governments. But technology has allowed a market for a need — in these cases, rooms and rides — to emerge by using information in an efficient and user-friendly way. And the sharing economy isn’t limited to lodgings and rides. It makes what is surplus available to those who need it more efficiently than do many markets that government regulates.

GOVERNING.COM

BY TOD NEWCOMBE | OCTOBER 14, 2015




State Pension Funding Levels in U.S. Improve for a Second Year.

The finances of more than two-thirds of U.S. state pension plans improved in fiscal year 2014, as a soaring stock market boosted returns and many states stopped incorporating losses from the recession into their pension calculations.

The median state pension last year had 70 percent of the assets needed to meet promised benefits, up from 69.2 percent in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It was the second straight increase in pension funding. Public pensions had median investment gains of 16.9 percent for the 12 months ended June 30, 2014 according to Wilshire Associates.

“It’s generally agreed that 2014 was mostly a year of improvement for public pension funds,” said Josh Gonze, who co-manages $10.5 billion of municipal bonds at Thornburg Investment Management in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Thornburg’s $7.3 billion Limited Term fund is the 13th largest open-end tax-exempt mutual fund, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping short-term interest rates near zero and an improving economy boosted the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. stocks by 24.6 percent in the 12 months through June 30, 2014 including dividends, helping to ease the strain on public pensions.

Broad numbers mask big difference in the health of public pensions between states. Eight of 13 states whose funding level declined were states with below average funding levels.

“We have states that seem to be in genuine trouble,” Gonze said, listing Illinois, Kentucky, Alaska and New Jersey. “And clearly states that are not in any trouble at all.”

Illinois, with a pension shortfall of more than $100 billion, remains the state with worst-funded retirement system, with a ratio of assets to liabilities of 39.3 percent, followed by Kentucky at 45 percent and Connecticut at 50.4 percent.

In May, the Illinois Supreme Court struck down a 2013 pension overhaul saying it violated the state constitution’s ban on reducing worker retirement benefits. The ruling highlighted the lack of legal flexibility some states have in addressing their pension funding deficits.

Accounting Change

New Jersey’s pensions are projected to run out of assets to pay liabilities between 2021 and 2032, depending on the retirement system, under new accounting rules that most states began implementing in 2014, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

New Governmental Accounting Standards Board rules require public pensions to use a lower discount rate to value liabilities for plans with projected asset depletion dates and market value rather than the actuarial value of assets among other things.

Puerto Rico, Illinois and New Jersey are the three issuers whose pension funding deficits are serious enough that Thornburg is avoiding their securities, Gonze said. Thornburg’s limited term fund focuses on debt maturing in 10 years or less.

More Retirees

Loop Capital Markets, in a report last month, said it expects “continued bifurcation” among governments in terms of the fiscal health of their pensions.

“A combination of strong pension protections, coupled with low funded levels, should be especially noted as they indicate escalating budgetary pressure,” Loop’s report said. “For those perennially struggling with funding pension payments and low funded levels, these pressures are not expected to abate without significant change in plan fundamentals.”

State that had the biggest improvement in funding include Idaho, whose, pension funding ratio rose 7.6 percentage points to 93.1 percent and Oklahoma, whose actuarial value of assets divided by actuarial accrued liabilities gained 6.5 percentage points to 73 percent.

In the last six years Idaho’s pension funding has improved by 19.2 percentage points, the most of any state, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Michigan’s pension funding ratio has declined the most during that period to 59.9 percent from 83.6 percent. Michigan is one of three states, including Alaska and Ohio that have more retired public employees than active members, according to Loop.

Bloomberg News

by Martin Z Braun

October 12, 2015 — 9:00 PM PDT Updated on October 13, 2015 — 5:01 AM PDT




Chicagoans' Cost to Exit Swap Agreements Approaches $300 Million.

Chicago’s attempt to clean up a legacy of wrong-way bets on interest rates is costing taxpayers at least $270 million since Moody’s Investors Service cut its rating to junk in May, city documents show.

The payouts to Wall Street banks, which come as the Windy City considers a record tax increase to cover pension costs, are more than the city spends a year to collect garbage at 613,000 homes, and could cover the cost of hiring more than 2,000 police officers. The pain isn’t over yet as officials plan another round of debt restructuring that could cost $110 million to unwind derivatives on its water debt early next year.

“I don’t think the public should be gambling with its funds,” said Richard Ciccarone, Chicago-based chief executive officer of Merritt Research Services, who has been analyzing municipal finance since the 1970s. “Save the speculation for people who risk their own money, not for taxpayers.”

The city was forced to restructure obligations after decades of failing to address its rising pensions and borrowing to cover debt service, a legacy that began under former Mayor Richard M. Daley and continued until this year under Mayor Rahm Emanuel. Moody’s downgrade of Chicago’s general-obligation debt in May forced the city to begin a debt restructuring the mayor was already planning.

Chicago and other municipal borrowers in the past decade made bets on the future direction of interest rates through agreements with banks to swap interest payments. But when rates fell under the Federal Reserve’s attempt to stimulate the economy after the financial crisis, many issuers ended up on the wrong side of the bets. Since then issuers have paid at least $5 billion to unwind the agreements.

Sewer Debt

The city sold about $419 million of bonds Wednesday, part of which will cover $70.2 million to end an interest-rate swaps tied to variable-rate debt for the city’s sewer system. That’s on top of $185 million paid to unwind swaps on general-obligation and sales tax debt since May. The estimated $270 million total also includes the cost to banks and other professionals to restructure, according to data Bloomberg compiled from city documents. Chicago owed as much as $396 million to banks in March, before the city started terminating the swap agreements, according to market values at the time. Chicago paid less than mark-to-market valuations, said Molly Poppe, a city spokeswoman.

While the city’s refinancing and tax hike increase the burden on residents at a time when the city’s finances are already squeezed, investors and credit raters have praised the move. One month after cutting Chicago’s rating to speculative grade, Moody’s called the refinancing a “credit positive.” Now there’s more certainty about how much the city may have to pay out, Matt Butler, a Moody’s analyst in Chicago, said in a June 11 report.

Yields Decline

Chicago’s bonds has rallied since Emanuel pitched his plan to raise property levies by $588 million over four years. Federally tax-exempt bonds maturing in 2038 traded last week for an average of $1.04, up from $1.01 five weeks earlier, before the tax hike was announced. That trimmed the yield to 4.5 percent from 5 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“It felt like the market was not comfortable with the amount of risk that we were taking,” Carole Brown, Chicago’s chief financial officer, said in an interview Monday. The restructuring “demonstrates kind of a conservative and responsible financial practice to eliminate that risk by eliminating those swaps.”

Wednesday’s deal will take care of the wastewater swaps, and the city will likely end the water-swap agreements in early 2016, according to Brown. Chicago will have to pay about $110 million to terminate the latter, according to the city.

About $332 million of the sewer issue is federally tax-exempt and was re-offered as fixed-rate obligations, and an additional $87 million of taxable debt will help cover the cost to terminate the agreements, according to bond documents.

A portion of federally tax-exempt securities due in January 2039 sold at a top yield of 4.4 percent, according to preliminary data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s about 1.5 percentage point more than 23-year benchmark municipal bonds. The taxable securities sold for as much as 6 percent yield, preliminary data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Borrowing Costs

The second-lien wastewater bonds, which are repaid from sewer-system revenue, won a higher rating from Standard & Poor’s this week, which raised its rating by one step to A, five levels above junk, and applauded the elimination of the liquidity risk. S&P has a stable outlook on the debt.

The wastewater credit faces “elevated volatility” because of its ties to the city, said Robert Amodeo, head of municipals for Western Asset Management Co., which has $452.5 billion under management, including some Chicago debt. He said he is considering buying the wastewater bonds given the strength of the underlying credit.

“There are some ongoing challenges there,” Amodeo said in a telephone interview from New York. “You can’t completely separate it from the city.”

The city’s ratings and borrowing costs are tied to its progress in getting the refinancing done, according to Brown. The hope is that credit companies will respond positively to the Emanuel administration’s steps to secure revenue for pensions, and eliminate the liquidity risk, leading to a higher rating and better borrowing costs, she said.

In the meantime, taxpayers in the city of 2.7 million are on the hook for the higher tab tied to deals made decades ago.

“We’re paying these fees at the same time the city is looking at the biggest tax increase in its history,” said Saqib Bhatti, a Chicago-based fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, which has been recommending that governments with swaps should push to cut the fees rather than pay Wall Street banks. “Working residents of the city are going to have to sacrifice for the city to pay these fees to the banks.”

Bloomberg News

by Elizabeth Campbell and Darrell Preston

October 13, 2015 — 9:00 PM PDT Updated on October 14, 2015 — 2:28 PM PDT




Muni-Bond Buying Falls to Decade Low as Investors Balk at Yields.

The buy-and-hold strategy that dominates the municipal-bond market is lacking the buying side of that equation.

Securities dealers’ customers, including individuals and mutual funds, purchased less than $20 billion of state and local government debt in each of the last 27 trading days, according to a rolling five-day average compiled by research firm Municipal Market Analytics. That’s the lowest level of trading in at least a decade, a sign that individuals are hesitant to buy more municipal debt with benchmark interest rates close to a five-month low.

“Yields are extremely low and so people who own bonds have reinvestment risk,” said Matt Fabian, a partner at Concord, Massachusetts-based MMA. “You could trade it away, but what do you trade into? Spreads are so tight that you don’t get much of a pickup in trading by extending maturity or buying lower-grade credits.”

The $3.7 trillion municipal market has rallied since the Federal Reserve last month kept borrowing costs close to zero. That pushed the yield on AAA 10-year munis down to 2.07 percent from as much as 2.4 percent in July, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

It’s not easy to find securities with yields that are much higher. Investors get an extra 1.04 percentage points of yield to buy 30-year debt instead of bonds due in a decade, a less attractive proposition than the 1.24-percentage-point average pickup over the past five years, Bloomberg data show. BBB rated 10-year bonds have interest rates 1.13 percentage point higher than top-rated munis, below the average spread of 1.33 percentage point since the start of 2013.

It doesn’t help trading volume that the way individuals buy and sell munis is shifting, Fabian said. Fewer investors have brokers who are paid a commission for each trade, instead of a money-management fee, which is curbing the financial incentive for brokers to buy and sell bonds at a time of depressed yields, he said.

“There needs to be more opportunity in trading — we need at least more volatile spreads,” Fabian said. “Higher yields would definitely help.”

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta

October 14, 2015 — 8:43 AM PDT




Muni Market Proving Haven for Buyers of Junk Issuers Amid Rout.

The corporate junk-bond rout loses its force when it comes to the U.S. municipal-debt market, where investors are snapping up securities backed by financially struggling businesses.

Consider the steel industry. Local-government bonds sold on behalf of U.S. Steel Corp., the nation’s second-largest producer, trade for more than 100 cents on the dollar, even after its corporate debt tumbled 17 percent since mid-July to 83 cents, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Rival AK Steel Corp.’s munis trade almost 40 cents higher than its other securities.

The diverging prices highlight a disconnect in the high-yield market: While the corporate bonds had their biggest loss since 2011 during the third quarter, the tax-free debt rallied. That’s because money has been flowing into muni funds over the past two months as yields slid to the lowest since April, igniting demand for the riskiest securities.

“People can argue it’s way out of alignment in terms of the absolute levels on corporates these days,” said Jim Colby, who runs the $1.6 billion Market Vectors High Yield Municipal Index exchange-traded fund at Van Eck Global. He attributed the gap to the lack of munis available. “If you want these bonds, you have to pay the price.”

The corporate securities are a niche of the $3.7 trillion muni market, where state and local governments can sell bonds to subsidize airline terminals, pollution-controls for factories and other projects that are seen as having a public benefit. The companies repay the debt, which isn’t guaranteed by the governments. About $25 billion of fixed-rate, federally tax-exempt economic and industrial-development bonds have been issued, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

There has been a dearth of them lately. Only $299 million of the industrial-development securities were sold this year. By contrast, businesses have issued $1.7 trillion of new speculative-grade corporate bonds in the past five years, a binge that’s fueled speculation that more borrowers will default if the U.S. economy slows.

U.S. Steel’s munis, issued through agencies including Pennsylvania’s Allegheny County Industrial Development Authority, have been largely sheltered from the losses felt by corporate-bond holders as the company faces pressure from declining prices and competitors abroad.

Prices Diverge

Among transactions over $1 million, securities due in 2024 traded Thursday at 103 cents on the dollar to yield 6 percent — equivalent to 10.6 percent on a taxable bond for the highest earners. The debt fell from 107 cents in previous exchanges at the end of September.

While the current price is down 8 percent from July, the company’s corporate debt fell even more: Bonds due in 2022 last changed hands at 83 cents, down from par three months ago. That pushed the yield up to 11.4 percent.

AK Steel munis also due in 2024 last traded at 89 cents on the dollar. While that’s down from about 100 cents in July, the company’s taxable debt maturing in 2022 changed hands at 52 cents.

“We’re seeing the spreads on those types of corporate names in our market widen out,” said Steve Czepiel, who runs a $997 million high-yield muni fund for Delaware Investments in Philadelphia. “There may be a buying opportunity where they’re just being yanked around by their corporate counterparts.”

Moody’s Investors Service rates AK Steel’s senior unsecured debt, including the munis, Caa1, the fifth-lowest grade, signaling a high risk of default, and put it on review for downgrade on Oct. 8. Similar securities from U.S. Steel are ranked B1, four levels below investment grade. Shares of both companies have fallen this year to their lowest levels since 2003.

Such muni bonds aren’t exempt from the risks faced by other investors. When American Airlines parent AMR Corp. declared bankruptcy in 2011, the tax-exempt securities it backed dropped as much as 68 percent. Two years later, the bonds rallied to above 100 cents from as low as 18.9 cents as American merged with US Airways Group Inc.

Other companies that have borrowed through the muni market include Alcoa Inc., Marathon Oil Corp., NRG Energy Inc., Southwest Airlines Co. and Westlake Chemical Corp., Bloomberg data show. All of their debt is either speculative grade or in the lowest investment-grade tier.

Louisiana Oil

Marathon tax-exempt bonds due in 2037 from Louisiana’s Parish of St. John the Baptist traded this week at an average 102.4 cents on the dollar, down about 2 cents from July, Bloomberg data show. By contrast, corporate debt with a similar coupon that matures in 2045 changed hands at 88.5 cents, compared with an average of 96 cents three months ago. Moody’s rates Marathon three steps above speculative grade. Its stock has dropped 33 percent this year.

Tax-exempt investors are willing to take the risk as the Federal Reserve keeps its benchmark lending rate near zero. Almost half of the Barclays Plc high-yield muni index is made up of Puerto Rico and tobacco securities, both of which are at risk of default. That’s leaving bonds tied to some of the largest U.S. corporations as an alluring alternative.

“The most important thing to the muni-bond buyer is the after-tax return,” said Ken Naehu, a managing director at Banyan Tree Asset Management in Los Angeles. “The taxable guys are looking more at dollar price and recovery risk.”

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta

October 14, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on October 15, 2015 — 8:37 AM PDT




California Tech Boom Lures Muni-Bond Buyers as Deficit Era Ends.

Bond investors are betting that a resurgent tech-fueled boom in the Golden State isn’t just California dreaming.

The state, which faced ballooning budget shortfalls after the housing crash, is selling about $961 million in general-obligation bonds next week, its last sale of the securities this year. California debt is outperforming amid a rally in the municipal market as the state’s finances benefit from the fast-growing economy.

“If you invest in California, you’re betting that their economic improvement is likely to continue,” said Paul Mansour, head of municipal research at Hartford, Connecticut-based Conning, which holds California bonds among its $11 billion of tax-exempt debt. “I’m reasonably optimistic that we’ve got another few years to go of growing tax revenues and building up reserves.”

Fueled by Silicon Valley’s technology industry and a real-estate market revival, California’s economy has outpaced the nation’s since 2012. Along with tax increases backed by Governor Jerry Brown, that has halted the chronic shortfalls that once plagued the state, allowing it to pay off debt and add to its savings ahead of the next slowdown.

Wall Street has rewarded the turnaround. In July, Standard & Poor’s lifted the state’s grade to AA-, the highest California has had in 14 years. Bonds from the state have returned 2.47 percent this year, about half a percentage point more than the overall muni market, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

California has benefited from “increased revenues and some controls on spending in a time when they really needed it,” said Regina Shafer, senior portfolio manager of tax-exempt investments at USAA Investment Management, which holds $9.9 billion in munis, including California debt. “That bodes very well for the state and for the future.”

California’s economy should continue to expand faster than the country’s over the next couple of years because of the technology industry and growth in residential and commercial construction, economists at Wells Fargo Securities said in a report this month.

The home to companies including Alphabet Inc., Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. has also been benefiting from stock-price gains pocketed by its wealthiest residents: In May, Brown’s administration forecast that its residents will reap $109 billion in capital gains next year, up from $79 billion in 2013. Such income has driven a jump in the state’s revenue.

The new bonds, some of which will refinance higher-cost debt, will be sold in an auction among underwriters Tuesday. All but $106 million of them are exempt from state and federal income taxes.

The demand for such securities has been heightened by a ballot measure passed in 2012, which boosted income taxes on the highest-earning households through 2018. Labor unions are among those pushing to make the increase permanent.

“With their state personal-income tax at higher levels, it certainly makes a California bond more compelling,” said USAA’s Shafer.

The difference between the yield on California bonds and top-rated securities has widened since the beginning of the year, when it dropped to the lowest since at least 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. California 10-year bonds yield 2.36 percent, about 0.3 percentage point more than AAA rated securities. That gap was as little as 0.17 percentage point in January, one-fourth of what it was at the June 2013 peak.

Even with the increase, California’s yields are still lower than some comparable states — making the securities expensive in comparison. Ten-year securities issued by Pennsylvania, which has the same investment-grade ratings from S&P and Moody’s Investors Service, yield 0.54 percentage point more than top-rated debt. For Connecticut, whose S&P rating is one step higher, that gap is 0.46 percentage point.
Mansour at Conning, which might purchase the new bonds, said

California’s growing reserves and lower debt load may lead to another credit-rating increase.
“There is room for credit improvement in the coming year,” Mansour said.

An upgrade isn’t being signaled by Moody’s, S&P or Fitch, which have stable outlooks, indicating no changes are imminent.

Moody’s said in a report this month that the state has “significantly less flexibility” than others in budgeting and raising funds. Its revenue is volatile because it draws a large share of taxes from wealthy residents whose incomes are tied closely to the stock market, which has slipped from record highs.
Investors should weigh whether California’s economic pace will continue and if Brown, a Democrat, can resist pressure to spend the windfall, said Rob Amodeo, head of municipals for Western Asset Management Co., which has $25 billion of munis under management and may buy some of the new debt.

“The governor has done a good job in not permitting austerity fatigue to settle into their budget,” he said.

Bloomberg News

by Romy Varghese

October 15, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on October 16, 2015 — 5:41 AM PDT




Fitch: Funded Ratios Stabilize, Demographic Strains Grow for U.S. State Pensions.

Fitch Ratings-New York-15 October 2015:  As funded ratios continue to stabilize, a combination of more people retiring and fewer state and local government employees being hired highlight the continued pressure on U.S. state pensions, according to Fitch Ratings in a new report.

The median funded ratio for major state pension systems was almost unchanged for the second straight year in 2014 at 71.5%. Several years of strong market gains have offset steadily rising liabilities. However, the recovery of systems’ investment portfolios has not necessarily meant a recovery in their funded ratios, according to Senior Director Douglas Offerman. ‘Unlike asset portfolios that are prone to year-to-year cyclicality, pension liabilities have risen steadily for all but a handful of closed systems because active employees continue to accrue benefits as they work,’ said Offerman. ‘Additionally, few pension systems have implemented benefit reforms that immediately reduce liabilities.’ As a result, funded ratios have not returned to their pre-recession peaks.

States’ median debt burdens total 2.4% of personal income in 2014 while the median pension burden is 3.7% of personal income. The debt burden in 2014 is a slightly lower percentage than Fitch’s update from last year while the unfunded pension burden is slightly higher. Additionally, contribution practices are improving. Actual pension contributions relative to governments’ actuarially-calculated levels are at their highest point since fiscal 2009. However, in nearly half of systems reviewed by Fitch, the contribution is inadequate relative to the levels calculated by actuaries. In fiscal 2014, 53% of major statewide systems received at least 100% of the actuarially-calculated contribution, up from 42% in fiscal 2011.

Eroding demographics are also increasingly weighing on state pension liabilities. The median major pension system’s ratio of active employees to retirees and beneficiaries fell to 1.4 last year, a rather stark contrast to 1.9 in 2008, which according to Offerman is indicative of longer retirements and consequent higher benefit payment obligations. Moreover, ‘headcount for numerous state and local governments has been stagnant while weakening demographics is shifting more of the contribution burden onto government employers,’ said Offerman.

Fitch’s ‘2015 State Pension Update’ is available at ‘www.fitchratings.com’.




GASB Proposes Changes to Pension Standards for Certain Governments.

Norwalk, CT, October 14, 2015 — The Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) today proposed new guidance intended to assist governments that participate in certain multiple-employer pension plans to meet the reporting requirements of GASB Statement No. 68, Accounting and Financial Reporting for Pensions.

GASB Chairman David A. Vaudt said, “The GASB acted quickly in issuing this proposed guidance in response to stakeholder concerns regarding a situation that could make it difficult–or impossible–for some governments, through no fault of their own, to comply with the new pension standards.”

The proposed guidance would apply to governments that participate in certain private or federally-sponsored, multiple-employer defined benefit pension plans, such as Taft-Hartley plans or plans with similar characteristics.

During the implementation of GASB Statement 68, stakeholders raised concerns regarding the inability of governments whose employees are provided pension benefits through such multiple-employer pension plans to obtain information related to pensions required under Statement 68. Specifically, stakeholder concerns focused on the inability of those governments to obtain measurements and other relevant data points needed to comply with the requirements of the Statement.

To respond to these concerns, the GASB has issued an Exposure Draft, Accounting and Financial Reporting for Pensions Provided through Certain Multiple-Employer Defined Benefit Pension Plans, which proposes to assist these governments by focusing employer accounting and financial reporting requirements for those pension plans on obtainable information.

In lieu of the existing requirements under Statement 68, the proposed Statement would establish separate standards for employers that participate in pension plans that meet criteria set forth in the proposal. The guidance would establish separate standards for note disclosures of descriptive information about the plan, benefit terms, contribution terms, and required supplementary information presenting required contribution amounts for the past 10 fiscal years.

The full text of the Exposure Draft is available on the GASB website, www.gasb.org. Stakeholders are encouraged to review the proposal and provide comments by November 16, 2015.




S&P: Bank Loans Pose Potential Credit Risks, But For Now Issuers' Liquidity Positions Help Support Most Ratings.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services continues to scrutinize the credit impact of bank loans assumed by issuers and their potential effects on Standard & Poor’s rated debt. This commentary updates our Jan. 28, 2015. report on bank loans (see “Standard & Poor’s Maintains Its Focus On Direct Loans After Evaluating $15.8 Billion In 2014”) to include our 2015 year-to-date experience. Through Sept. 25, 2015, and including all prior years, we have reviewed 513 bank loans totaling approximately $20 billion in par by applying the methodology detailed in our 2012 contingent risk criteria.

The overwhelming majority of these bank loans we have evaluated have not, for the most part, negatively affected the credit quality of the obligors’ debt rated by Standard & Poor’s. This is because in our view (1) the parties to the transactions negotiated terms that we consider to be consistent with existing credit quality and current liquidity positions vis-à-vis the direct purchase terms under which acceleration could occur, (2) the financing structures do not present material contingent liquidity risks, and (3) the loans do not explicitly or implicitly subordinate other liens but the loan documents often provide preferential rights to the bank, in the event of a covenant default, which may result in a credit concern if liquidity is insufficient.

Overview

Often, the bank loan financing documents contained provisions that introduced additional risks that the obligors’ current liquidity position may or may not fully have mitigated. If liquidity were to erode in our view, credit quality and ratings could be negatively affected and the magnitude of the rating decline could be greater than it would be absent these loans.

Looking at 2015 exclusively, Standard & Poor’s evaluated the impact of 109 bank loans with a par amount totaling $4.22 billion on the obligors’ public debt ratings. The loans ranged from less than $287,000 to $300 million. To date, the ratings or outlooks of six obligors have been negatively affected by bank loans. The 109 loans evaluated thus far in 2015 include:

Measuring the U.S. public finance bank loan market remains a challenge for various reasons, most notably because bank loans are not explicitly required to be disclosed as they are not deemed to meet the legal definition of securities. Nevertheless, Standard & Poor’s observes that issuers across the municipal finance market continue to meaningfully use bank loans as an alternative financing product to manage their debt profiles for various reasons, including cost of capital, ease of issuance, and often to avoid the put features of various bonds.

Although the instances where we have adjusted ratings as a result of issuers’ use of bank loans have been limited, Standard & Poor’s continues to emphasize that disclosure of the loans and their terms is critical to identifying those cases where the loans do affect credit quality. Moreover, loan disclosure promotes transparency for all market participants, including the retail and institutional investors that use Standard & Poor’s ratings. In our view, reviewing the loans is critical because each transaction is separately negotiated, the terms are not uniform, disclosure of the loans can be inconsistent, and the potential for contingent liquidity exposures or altering the relative priority of creditors’ claims can be significant even for fixed-rate instruments. Consequently, we continue to underscore with issuers that carry Standard & Poor’s ratings the importance of providing us with bank loan documents, irrespective of whether we assign ratings to the issuers’ loans. Our view is that bank loans lacking the protections outlined in our criteria have the potential to meaningfully affect the credit quality of rated capital market instruments largely because of covenants that can trigger acceleration even in fixed-rate instruments.

06-Oct-2015




GFOA Hosts Meeting to Discuss Implementing School Budgeting Best Practices.

Alliance for Excellence in School Budgeting members met last week at GFOA’s office in Chicago to develop a set of guiding principles for the budget process, based on GFOA’s new best practices. These guidelines center on aligning district resources with the areas that will have greatest impact on student achievement. The Alliance members are from 35 school districts across the country, from the largest to some of the smallest, and from urban, suburban, and rural areas. They worked on developing communication ideas and analyzing goals and priorities (see below for more information about their process).

Alliance members will be implementing GFOA’s new Best Practices in School Budgeting over the next year. GFOA will support their efforts in several ways through online training courses and eLearning sessions. In addition, resources available on GFOA’s website – based on the best practices – help academic and finance staff align resources with student outcomes by incorporating research-proven practices into a cohesive budget process.

Working on Implementation

At the meeting, Alliance members – superintendents, chief finance officers, chief academic officers, budget directors, and more – worked on implementing best practices that GFOA staff has developed in conjunction with school district staff and other education finance experts. Specifically, they developed communication ideas and analyzed goals and priorities.

Communication. The components of a communication strategy start with an overview of the organizations’ processes, which allows them to find ways of engaging stakeholders and explaining how and why decisions are made. Next, districts must identify who will deliver the message, and to whom. Messages should then be tailored to that target audience, but it’s not that easy. Districts must also determine which communication channels will be most effective. And once the message is delivered, it’s time to gather feedback and adjust the message accordingly.

Goals. Districts also need to develop goals. One way to approach this step is by using the SMARTER framework. Goals should be specific – that is, they specify a precise outcome or result. They should also be measureable (verifiable and, ideally, quantifiable); achievable (grounded in reality); relevant (focused on student achievement); time-bound (laying out both short- and long-term objectives); exciting (reaching for ambitious improvement); and resourced (aligning finances with goals).

To define goals for academic achievement and make those goals understood by the schools, districts need to assess their strategic environment; set SMARTER goals for multi-year, district-wide improvement; understand baseline performance at the school level; and set goals for each school. To take that first step, start with goals that include specific outcomes, and aim for outcomes that are significant but manageable. Establish what data will the district will use to show whether progress is being made on a goal, and begin collecting evidence. Next, identify the root causes of gaps between the district’s goals and its reality.

Best Practices. Alliance members will be implementing GFOA’s new Best Practices in School Budgeting, which was recently passed by GFOA’s executive board, over the next year. The best practices center on aligning resources with areas of greatest impact on student achievement. GFOA will support these efforts with collaborative meetings, newly developed eLearning modules, and other resources. GFOA will begin recruiting members for the next phase of the Alliance in early 2016.

GFOA’s best practices for school include steps that are organized in five major phases: plan and prepare, set instructional priorities, pay for priorities, implement a plan, and ensure sustainability. The best practices include specific examples and guidance on implementing the process. Alliance members have benefitted from adopting the process, and GFOA will document and share their successes over the course of the project.

Training. GFOA is developing eLearning courses to help districts with these steps. The courses are self-paced and take approximately 30 minutes and 1 hour to complete.

Budget Award. GFOA’s Award for Best Practices in School Budgeting and Award for Best Practices in Community College programs are based on the best practices in school budgeting. GFOA is finalizing the award criteria, which will allow school districts and community colleges to demonstrate process excellence and receive deserved recognition. Applications will be available for budgets with fiscal years beginning in calendar year 2017.

Contact GFOA for More Information

To find out more about the alliance, the best practices, or any other information regarding the project, please contact Mike Mucha, director of GFOA’s Research and Consulting Center. More information on the project is also available on GFOA’s website.

Thursday, October 8, 2015




S&P’s Big Picture Look at U.S. Local Government Distressed Ratings, Bankruptcies, and Rating Correlations.

In this CreditMatters TV segment, credit analysts Lisa Schroeer and Jane Ridley discuss how we analyze U.S. local government distressed ratings, bankruptcies, and the correlation between rating pledges.

Watch the video.

Oct. 7, 2015




Standard & Poor’s Proposed Criteria For Rating Jointly Supported Financial Obligations.

In this CreditMatters TV segment, Senior Director Ekaterina Curry and Criteria Officer Liz Sweeney discuss our recent request for comment regarding proposed methodology revisions to our joint support criteria, including the implications for ratings and obligors.

Watch the video.

Oct. 6, 2015




Ratings Agencies Diverge on Post-Default Approaches.

Kroll Bond Rating Agency last week weighed in on post-default ratings, a subject of increasing interest in the municipal industry.

Four of the five biggest municipal bankruptcies in United States history have taken place in the last four years. And the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority will almost certainly create the greatest municipal default in U.S. history within the next few months.

Kroll noted the “changing landscape” in its Oct. 2 report, “Shouldn’t Defaulting on Debt Have Rating Consequences.”

While predicting defaults will remain low, the rating service said, “we do expect there will be a higher default rate going forward with substantially lower recoveries than has been experienced historically.”

When an issuer defaults the agencies lower its rating, though not necessarily to the lowest grade. Kroll, like Moody’s Investors Service would take into account recovery prospects. So even if the issuer has already defaulted, they may give the issuer something better than their lowest ratings based on prospects for a strong recovery on the debt.

Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s do not take into account recovery expectations in determining their lowest ratings.

The ratings agencies also vary in how they treat defaulted issuers in the years following defaults. Moody’s and Fitch are flexible. S&P and Kroll take more systematic approaches.

Moody’s doesn’t have a general policy on how it deals with issuers in the years after default because the situation of credits vary so greatly, said Moody’s spokesman David Jacobson.

At Fitch, “We consider the credit fundamentals of the issuer as it emerges, the restructured financial profile and the degree to which the forces triggering bankruptcy have been addressed,” said Jessalynn Moro, head of U.S. local government ratings. “If the credit fundamentals leading to an issuer’s default are unchanged post-default, the rating will remain low, in non-investment grade territory,” she said in an email. “Conversely, if an issuer is able to restructure its revenue, expenditure and/or debt profile in a way that makes default less likely in the future, Fitch’s rating will reflect those new fundamentals.”

Kroll said it “will generally view a decision by a municipal issuer to default on its debt as the basis for assignment of a non-investment grade rating for an extended period of time. KBRA will take this rating approach both for general obligation and non-general obligations debt which has been placed into default.” Adoption of a plan to repay bondholders in full may mitigate Kroll ‘s position. “KBRA will not take this long term position of assigning a non-investment grade rating in a situation where a municipality has been through a Chapter 9 bankruptcy but has not defaulted on its debt, although KBRA may assign a non-investment grade rating during the bankruptcy process,” the report added.

“It is KBRA’s view that the decision to default on a municipal debt payment reflects an essential unwillingness to pay its obligations on the part of the municipal issuer,” Kroll said. “In KBRA’s view, the decision to upgrade a credit to investment grade post-default would be based on successful implementation of a long term plan to maintain fiscally balanced operations and pay its obligations as well as fund the ongoing operations of the local government.”

Before considering an upgrade, KBRA would need to see evidence of “significant progress towards these goals over an extended period of time.”

S&P explained its position on defaulted issuers in a September 2013 report on U.S. local government general obligation ratings:

“While the issuer credit rating of a local government would fall to ‘D’ or ‘SD’ following a default on an actual debt obligation, the payment prospects for other GO debt may remain stronger (such as when the default results from insufficient funds for limited-tax GO debt and other GO debt enjoys an unlimited-tax pledge),” wrote S&P analyst Jeffrey Previdi and eight others. “Consistent with our criteria for appropriation-backed obligations, a failure to pay a capital lease obligation also caps the GO rating.”

S&P didn’t immediately respond to a request for details on how it treats ratings of defaulted obligations in the years that follow a default.

THE BOND BUYER

BY ROBERT SLAVIN

OCT 6, 2015 11:02am ET




Florida Supreme Court Decision Allows Municipalities to Issue Bonds Funding Green Energy for Commercial Properties.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla., Oct. 6, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — An important ruling by the Florida Supreme Court last week will allow Florida municipalities to issue bonds to fund “property assessed clean energy” (PACE) programs, which provide up-front financing to commercial property owners who want to use green energy in their buildings.

Representing the winning side of the case were Leon County Attorney Herbert W.A. Thiele; Elizabeth “Ellie” Neiberger, Susan H. Churuti, and JoLinda L. Herring of Bryant Miller Olive PA; Jon C. Moyle, Jr. and Karen Putnal of Moyle Law Firm; and Assistant State Attorney Georgia Anne Cappleman.

“The ruling is a big win for commercial property owners in Florida and a major victory for the state’s environment,” said Ellie Neiberger of Bryant Miller Olive. “The ruling gives local municipalities bonding authority that can make clean-energy projects more financially viable for commercial properties around the state.”

Giving local municipalities the bonding authority to pay for PACE programs is expected to help expand the use of the program in Florida, where it has only been used on a limited basis for commercial properties.

The PACE program is entirely voluntary. Commercial property owners who choose to participate enter financing agreements with a local municipality, agreeing to repay the improvement costs over the long-term through special assessments added to their property tax bills. The bonds are repaid with the assessment revenues, and there is no personal liability for the property owner.

Commercial property owners could tap into this financing source for green energy-related improvements such as doing energy-efficiency retrofits to buildings or adding solar structures.

The programs have gained traction around the country over the past four years and are proving to be popular in a number of other states, such as California, Connecticut and Ohio, said David Gabrielson, Executive Director of PACENow, a Pleasantville, N.Y.-based foundation-funded nonprofit that serves as an advocate and information provider for PACE financing.

The decision, announced Oct. 1, was the outcome of an appeal of a bond validation judgment in the Leon County Energy Improvement District’s favor. The District has been seeking the authority to issue $200 million in bonds to fund a PACE program, and appeals of validation hearing judgments go directly to the Florida Supreme Court.

Dean Minardi, CFO of Bing Energy International, LLC in Tallahassee, was hoping to use PACE financing last year for a green energy project he was working on personally on Gaines Street in Tallahassee. He applied for $200,000 in PACE financing with the Leon County Energy Improvement District, but had to finish the project without it as the case wound through the courts. But now, he sees opportunities around Leon County for similar projects.

“There will be significant demand for this financing, with the need to make older buildings more energy efficient,” Minardi said. “Because the return on investment on green energy is longer-term, many traditional lenders don’t want to finance such projects. Having access to this fund is a game changer.”

Around the state, the Florida Supreme Court’s decision is an important step in achieving the state’s energy conservation objectives, as outlined in Florida Statute, said Leon County Attorney Herb Thiele. “By enabling Leon County with this type of bonding authority, we can now help developments and buildings become more energy efficient,” he said. “This is good for business, good for government, and good for the environment.”

The case was Reynolds v. Leon County Energy Improvement District et al., case number SC14-710, in the Supreme Court of Florida.

About Bryant Miller Olive

With a distinguished 45-year history of serving its clients’ needs, Bryant Miller Olive represents governments, businesses and agencies in legal matters relating to public finance, state and local government law, complex transactions, project finance, and litigation. The firm has served as Bond Counsel on more deals than any other firm in the Southeast over the past five years, and more than any other firm in Florida over the past decade. Members of the firm are often called upon to handle some of the most complex legal issues in the boardroom and in the courtroom. The firm has offices in Tallahassee, Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Washington, D.C. For more information, visit http://www.bmolaw.com.




Florida High Court Makes It Harder to Challenge Bond Validations.

BRADENTON, Fla. — In validating $700 million of clean energy bonds, the Florida Supreme Court overturned 60 years of case law and made it harder to challenge future bond validations.

The Florida justices overturned a 1955 precedent set in the case Meyers v. City of St. Cloud. The Meyers case held that a party that does not appear in a bond validation proceeding in circuit court, where the cases are initiated, still had the right to appeal from the trial court’s decision directly to the state Supreme Court.

From now on, litigants must appear in the initial circuit court validation case to preserve their right to appeal, the justices said in an Oct. 1 ruling.

The decision benefits issuers and bond attorneys because it can speed up the validation of bonds in Florida, a legal process that insulates the debt from future legal challenges, experts said. Bob Jarvis, a professor at Nova Southeastern University’s Shepard Broad College of Law, said justices got it wrong in 1955.

“If you want to challenge a case at the Florida Supreme Court, you’d better get involved at the trial court level and make sure you have standing,” he said.

The new ruling is a major change in state law that has benefitted litigants who disagreed with an issuer’s decision to issue debt or who simply used the fast-­tracked appeal process to point out a procedural or constitutional deficiency, said a Florida attorney who asked not to be identified. “It’s not good public policy,” the attorney said. “If someone broke the law, you should be able to simply take the record and appeal.”

The court ruled last week on two bond validation cases, affirming them both but remanding both for some changes. They were brought under a Florida bill passed in 2010 establishing a property assessed clean energy program.

Under the PACE law, local governments can issue revenue bonds to provide financing for residents and businesses that voluntarily agree to make energy conservation, renewable energy, and wind resistance improvements, and have non-­ad valorem assessments placed on their property tax bills to repay the debt.

In the case that overturned the 1955 precedent, the justices confirmed the circuit court’s validation of up to $200 million of commercial PACE revenue bonds for the Leon County Energy Improvement District in north Florida.

In a second ruling, the court validated up to $500 million of bonds for the Clean Energy Coastal Corridor, a PACE program established by the village of Biscayne Park and the towns of Bay Harbor Islands and Surfside in Miami­-Dade County.

In Florida, bond validation appeals go directly to the state Supreme Court “so as to provide assurance of the marketability of the bonds,” according to the ruling.

Litigants appealing both validation cases argued that the financing agreements for the PACE programs included the unlawful use of judicial foreclosure if the assessments could not be collected.

The Supreme Court agreed, and ordered the judicial foreclosure language struck from the financing agreements.

The appellant in the Leon County case failed to appear in the circuit court validation case, and lacked standing to appeal, the justices wrote.

Their ruling backtracked from six decades of Florida case law established in the Meyers case and three other bond validation cases since then based on Meyers.

“Under the plain terms of the statute, any person wishing to participate in bond validation proceedings must appear in the circuit court,” the justices wrote.

The ruling provides clarity to the bond validation process going forward, Jarvis said.

“You have to be personally affected by the court’s decision and therefore you have skin in the game,” Jarvis said, explaining why it is appropriate for parties to appear in the lower court case.

Jarvis also said the new ruling could potentially increase costs for litigants, if they choose to hire attorneys when the validation case begins before the circuit court.

If an issuer makes a mistake preparing bond documents, a citizen is now precluded from taking the record from the circuit court validation proceeding and pursuing an appeal, said the attorney who asked to remain anonymous.

The attorney said he would want appeal options open to ensure that bond validations are complete, and that bond documents are prepared properly.

Since a Florida validation case also involves the local state attorney as a participant, Holland & Knight partner and bond attorney Michael Wiener said his firm typically waits to close on a bond issue until after the 30­-day appeal period ends.

The new Supreme Court ruling limits the universe of potential appellants, Weiner said. “You would have some certainty that during the 30­day period no other parties could appear to appeal the decision,” he said.

The decision to validate Leon County’s bonds and overturn the standing law was hailed by Elizabeth Neiberger, an appellate attorney with Bryant Miller Olive PA who represented the county.

“I think the court did reach the correct decision on both points,” she said. The ruling is a big win for commercial property owners in Florida and a major victory for the state’s environment, she added.

“In Leon County where I live there is a lot of redevelopment and a lot people are interested in taking advantage of this [PACE] program,” Neiberger said.

While the justices ordered Leon County to remove judicial foreclosure from bond documents, Neiberger said the court’s order clears up any ambiguity in the paperwork even though the county did not intend to use foreclosure unless it was allowed by law.

“We got the remedy we asked for,” she said. “This doesn’t have to go back to another bond validation hearing.”

Neiberger also said the court’s prior determination about standing ran counter to Florida law, basic principles of litigation, and appellate review.

“It’s incredible as an appellate attorney to see a case where somebody doesn’t have to show up at the trial court and can tie things up in an appeal, especially one that goes directly to the Supreme Court,” she said.

Several attorneys, including Neiberger, said the Supreme Court’s decision last week to validate the clean energy bond issues tends to support Florida’s 2010 PACE law – though the law itself was not at issue in either case.

The constitutionality of the 2010 PACE law, however, is pending before the Florida Supreme Court in a separate case.

The Florida Bankers Association has appealed the validation of $2 billion of PACE bonds sought by the Florida Development Finance Corp.

The FBA has argued that the PACE law is unconstitutional because it gives the special assessment on a tax bill a lien that supersedes the payment of a mortgage on the property. Oral arguments in the FDFC case were heard in May.

PACE – ­related bonds have already been validated in Florida, including a $2 billion court-approved authorization for the Florida PACE Funding Agency in 2011 that is believed to be the first of its kind for the Sunshine state.

The ruling in the Leon County case overturning the Meyers precedent came on a 6 ­to ­1 vote, with Charles Canady, who agreed with the majority’s reasoning on Meyers, dissenting only because he believed the entire case should have been dismissed. The justices ruled unanimously in upholding the Clean Energy Coastal Corridor validation.

THE BOND BUYER

SHELLY SIGO

OCT 7, 2015 3:15pm ET




Muni Managers Get Busy After Fed Stands Pat.

Asset managers are keeping active in the municipal market as they prepare their portfolios for a prolonged period of uncertainty over interest rates. Some are adding risk to boost their fourth-quarter yields following the Federal Reserve Board’s decision on Sept. 17 to keep rates unchanged, while other are playing a more defensive game.

Sean Carney, head of municipal strategy at BlackRock Inc. said year-end posturing includes looking more favorably at duration in the near-term and focusing on the trajectory and destination of future rate hikes, as well as the potential impact on the municipal market.

“Where appropriate, we will look to add marginal duration and/or credit so to be able to harvest greater returns as seasonals turn more positive,” he said.

For some managers, that means exploring the high-yield sector. Carney, however, favors the A-rated space at a time when many managers are clinging to higher quality.

“When you look at returns in the market over time, it becomes evident that one must add some credit to their portfolio” to boost returns, he said.

The A-rated portion of the market “has grown from less than 10% to 30% of the overall outstanding universe, and since 2009, has outperformed the broad market by 10% when measuring total return,” Carney said.

Others, however, believe the risks outweigh the benefits in lower-rated sectors, and as a result are being highly defensive and choosing securities from tax and revenue-backed governments and entities that are less susceptible to credit issues.

“We are concerned about risks, such as underfunded pensions, Chapter 9 bankruptcy, and shake-outs in certain non-essential service enterprise sectors,” said David Litvack, managing director and head of tax-exempt research at U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management.

Some of those concerns dominated the headlines in 2015 and speculative issuers gave investors and money managers reason for great concern – especially cash-strapped municipalities like Puerto Rico, Detroit, Illinois, and New Jersey.

As a result of the highly visible, yet isolated, credit situations, Litvack said he prefers tax-backed bonds of governments with stable economies, solid finances, and manageable debt and pension liabilities, as well as revenue bonds of utilities and transportation authorities.

“We are selective in higher risk sectors, such as higher education and health care,” he said. U.S. Trust manages more than $380 billion in total client assets.

Others who are concerned about the future of interest rates are still seeking high-quality investments as the year comes to a close.

Mark Tenenhaus said his low expectations for Fed movement in 2015 means no major changes in the municipal strategy through year end at RSW Investments, where he is the director of municipal research.

“We have positioned our holdings well in advance as we did not and do not foresee the Fed taking any action during the course of the year,” he said. The Summit, N.J.-based asset management firm oversees $2 billion of separately-managed municipal bond client accounts.

“The Fed’s lack of action, to us, highlights the inherent weakness in both the domestic and global economies, supporting our emphasis on highest credit quality investments,” Tenenhaus said.

Janney Montgomery Scott Inc. is also maintaining its strategic approach when it comes to municipal investments, according to Alan Schankel, municipal bond strategist at the Philadelphia-based firm.

“We do not expect [the rate hike] to translate into significantly higher long term interest rates,” Schankel said. That’s led the firm to advise municipal investors to focus on the six- to 14-year range of the tax-free yield curve, with 5% range coupons, as well as higher quality paper in the double-A and higher spectrum.

Schankel said he recommends larger, non-profit healthcare issuers as the growth in the insured population increases demand, as well as the toll road and airport sectors because they benefit from the lower energy prices and improving economic conditions.

Stephen Winterstein, managing director of research and chief strategist at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, Inc., said that rather than making interest rate bets, his firm is focused on maintaining adequate exposure in the municipal portfolios to mid-grade and high-grade securities that are extremely liquid, frequent-to-market, and actively traded.

All the volatility and uncertainty over the Fed tightening put the market in a tailspin – with the latest expectations for a potential rate hike in March 2016.

“The market’s antics over the past several months only provide support for our agnostic view of interest rates,” Winterstein said.

Wilmington manages $4 billion in tax-exempt municipal assets consisting of separate accounts for ultra-high net worth individuals.

“The sensible way to manage the unknown is to prepare for adverse volatility in the event that we do experience a material increase in tax-exempt yields,” he said.

The firm continues to give clients full exposure to the term structure of their respective benchmark indices notwithstanding an interest rate forecast.

“We do not express a view in our portfolios of the future shift in, or shape of the curve,” Winterstein said.

Like his peers, he is steering clear of riskier sectors for now, but won’t rule them out entirely, as he said relative value is a key component to his overall strategy.

He is currently avoiding “precarious” sectors, such as resource recovery, tobacco settlement, life care, and nursing homes until spreads widen out. “We may be interested in certain names in the BBB category at some point, but with 10-year spreads at about 114 basis points, lower investment-grade yields still have quite a distance to cover to even get to the 152 basis point spread where they were in the beginning of 2014.”

“While we do not wilt from risk, we travel into the BBB arena, not in search of a higher yield, but for opportunities where credits may be improving,” Winterstein added. “As a total return manager, we are focused as much on price performance as yield, and so any potential upgrade or other progress in a credit may be the catalyst to spark our curiosity.”

Overall, the managers said they are well prepared for the remainder of 2015 — and optimistic about the arrival of 2016, even with interest rate volatility.

“We do not fear the Fed in the sense that we believe the muni market holds up rather well in most scenarios,” Carney of BlackRock said.

“Our conviction around a September lift-off was low, and in many cases below market expectations,” he added. Following what he referred to as the Fed’s “dovish” comments in September — and subsequent data indicating lower-than-projected growth outlooks – Carney expects a “lower for longer” interest rate environment to continue going forward.

“Even if the Fed does go, their accommodative stance coupled with low inflation expectations should keep the long-end of the curve well bid,” Carney said.

THE BOND BUYER

BY CHRISTINE ALBANO

OCT 8, 2015 10:07am ET




Social Impact Bonds: Cha-Ching! Success!

Nothing talks like money does and this week, the financiers of a Utah preschool program became the first Social Impact Bond (SIB) investors to see a return on their investment. The United Way of Salt Lake announced it had cut a check for $267,000 to investment bankers who funded public-preschool expansion in Utah. The early payment came because initial results showed the program is working already at reducing the number of kids who need special education in grade school.

Of the 595 low-income three- and four-year-olds who attended preschool financed by the SIB in the 2013-14 school year, 110 of the four-year-olds were identified as likely to use special education in grade school. Results showed that of those 110 students identified as at-risk, only one used special education services in kindergarten. That equals a $281,000 cost savings for the school district, the state and Salt Lake County. The so-called success payment is 95 percent of that cost savings.

Goldman Sachs and J.B. Pritzker committed $7 million to the pay-for-success program, which will fund expanded preschool services for five years. Researchers will continue to monitor the 110 students through sixth grade. Investors will get more success payments based on the number who avoid use of special education in each year.

The news comes two months after the first-ever social impact bond program in the United States shut down early. An evaluation nearly three years in on a program aimed at reducing recidivism at Rikers Island Prison in New York City found the project had no impact on the number of repeat offenders.

GOVERNING.COM

BY LIZ FARMER | OCTOBER 9, 2015




How to Save Billions on Public Construction.

The ways we calculate pay scales for labor on government projects dramatically inflate the costs.

A recent Wall Street Journal op-ed column called for repeal of the Davis-Bacon Act, which sets a floor for wages on federally funded construction projects. Thirty-two states have their own prevailing-wage laws, and while the goal of making sure that those working on public construction projects are fairly compensated is too important for the laws to be repealed, some simple reforms for how prevailing wages are calculated could save state and local taxpayers billions of dollars.

According to a 2008 study by Suffolk University’s Beacon Hill Institute, state and local governments spend about $300 billion annually on public construction. Labor accounts for about half the cost of those projects. How each of the states with prevailing-wage laws calculates the wage, which various by region within states, is determined by state law.

Some, such as Texas and Connecticut, simply use the amounts determined by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Wage and Hour Division (WHD) that are used on federal projects. Five states — Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Ohio — calculate wages based on the amounts negotiated in local collective-bargaining agreements. The problem is that both approaches dramatically inflate prevailing wages.

WHD determines prevailing wages by surveying construction unions and large employers. But the surveys are so complex and time-consuming that most contractors — especially small ones — don’t complete them.

Unions and union contractors, on the other hand, are far more likely to fill out the surveys. Union wages tend to be above market, and these entities want to see the prevailing wage set as high as possible to minimize their competitive disadvantage (disclosure: an association of open-shop construction contractors is among my clients). As a result, the Beacon Hill Institute study found that the WHD approach inflates wages by an average of about 22 percent, which adds about 10 percent to overall project costs.

The cost problem is even worse in the five states that base prevailing wage on collective-bargaining agreements. In recent years, New York State has debated whether to extend the prevailing wage to cover Industrial Development Agencies, the state’s public economic-development authorities. A Center for Governmental Research report estimated that doing so would increase the cost of the agencies’ construction projects by 36 percent.

Using collective-bargaining agreements to determine prevailing wage is also unfair because such a small portion of construction workers belong to unions. According to Unionstats.com, membership ranges from 2 percent in Alabama to about 38 percent in Hawaii, and the number is in single digits in about half the states.

A far better approach would be to simply base prevailing wage on Bureau of Labor Statistics data. BLS, which like WHD is within the U.S. Department of Labor, is the gold standard for employment data. BLS calculates wage data by industry (including construction) in 80 metropolitan and 170 non-metropolitan areas. It is far more transparent about its methodology than WHD and most states are. In addition, its methodology is more sophisticated and its conclusions are based on much larger samples.

And the wage differences are significant. A 2012 Columbia University study found that current New York state prevailing wages ranged from 10 percent to more than 70 percent higher than BLS rates.

Like so much of government, prevailing-wage laws are a balancing act. Done right, they ensure that those who work on public construction projects receive a reasonable wage, and they also are fair to the taxpayers who fund those projects. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data to determine prevailing wages is the best way to strike that delicate balance.

GOVERNING.COM

BY CHARLES CHIEPPO | OCTOBER 7, 2015




The Top 10 Counties Where People Are Moving.

Migration rates are near historic lows, but some places are still attracting large numbers of new residents. View data for every county.

More people moved to Travis County, Texas, home to Austin, than anywhere else in the United States.

With migration rates near historic lows, not many Americans have been changing addresses in recent years. A few larger jurisdictions, however, are welcoming large numbers of new residents from all across the country.

Last week, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) published updated migration data based on income tax returns, showing where taxpayers are moving to and from at the county level. We’ve compiled the data, shown in the interactive, and have highlighted the areas experiencing the highest population gains from migration.

Numbers of exemptions claimed on tax returns are commonly used to approximate population totals. Using this metric, only about 15 million Americans relocated to a new county between 2013 and 2014. For most counties, net migration gains or losses are fairly small — typically less than 1,000 tax returns — in a given year.

Several of the nation’s largest counties do, though, experience significant shifts from year to year. As one would expect, it’s the larger counties in the Sun Belt that generally register the highest migration gains. The following counties saw the top 10 migration increases, as measured by net changes of numbers of exemptions, between 2013 and 2014:

1) Travis County, Texas, had nearly 123,802 new residents move in — by far the most of any county nationally. To put that in perspective, it’s more than three times the tally of the next highest county. The region, home to Austin, has seen significant population and economic growth in recent years. Data suggests people are moving from long distances into the area (those migrating from out of state account for nearly all of the net increase).

2) Jefferson County, Colo., gained 34,205 new residents (compared to less than 4,000 over the previous two years), with nearly all movers coming from neighboring Broomfield County. We’ve reached out to the county for an explanation and will update when we hear back. (It’s possible that the IRS data contains an error.)

3) Maricopa, County, Ariz., recorded a net migration increase of 17,827. The county, which includes Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs, has long benefited from retirees moving in.

4) Fort Bend County, Texas, welcomed a net total of 17,462 residents — a figure that’s increased over the previous two years. Unlike Travis and Maricopa counties, migration coming from within the state accounted for the majority of its increase.

5) Clark County, Nevada, recorded a net gain of 14,292 residents for the year. The vast majority of its new residents migrated from out of state, particularly from neighboring California. The county has also seen net migration jump quite a bit in recent years, up from 8,613 for 2011-2012.

6) Collin County, Texas, which comprises the northern part of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area, added a net total of 13,428 residents. The county’s newcomers also tend to be relatively wealthy, with their adjusted gross incomes averaging $73,930 per tax return.

7) Denton County, Texas, which borders Collin County, experienced a similar net gain of 12,461 residents. Migration from within Texas and outside the state accounted for roughly equal portions of the county’s net migration gain.

8) Montgomery County, Texas, saw a net increase 11,652 for the year, with about half of its new residents moving from neighboring Harris County. Households migrating into the county reported average gross incomes of $82,316.

9) Palm Beach County, Fla., is known as a top destination for wealthy retirees, a fact reflected in the county’s migration data. Many of its new residents, who made up a net gain of 11,303, moved in from other parts of Florida or the New York Metro area. Gross incomes for new Palm Beach County residents averaged $95,030 per tax return, one of the highest amounts nationally.

10) Lee County, Fla., another hot area for retirees, welcomed a net total of 10,609 residents. Its new households also tend to be wealthy, (but not quite as wealthy as Palm Beach County) with incomes averaging $82,884.

Counties recording the largest net migration losses were Los Angeles County, Calif., (-53,670); Cook County, Ill., (-49,142); Manhattan, N.Y., (-28,123); and Brooklyn, N.Y., (-27,416). Population losses for these counties are largely offset by international migration, most of which is not reflected in the IRS data.

GOVERNING.COM

BY MIKE MACIAG | OCTOBER 7, 2015




Swift Descent to Junk Shows Buried Risk as Municipal Loans Surge.

In a routine review of Lawrence, Wisconsin’s credit rating last month, Standard & Poor’s analysts discovered something troubling.

The 4,600-person town eight miles (13 kilometers) south of Green Bay had borrowed $4.6 million, about three times its annual revenue, from local banks, and tucked into the agreements was a potentially costly clause: The banks could demand immediate repayment if they decide the town has turned into a mounting financial risk. The finding triggered an eight-level downgrade to Lawrence’s rating, which went from the third-highest grade to junk.

“Anyone could have these deals,” said Geoffrey Buswick, a managing director at S&P in Boston. “Until it’s disclosed or someone reads the documents and considers the credit risk, you don’t know if you’re holding double A paper or double B plus paper.”

How many Lawrence’s are there in the $3.7 trillion U.S. municipal-bond market? It’s impossible to know.
The proliferation of such loans since the credit-market crisis seven years ago has added fresh uncertainty to the state and local-government debt market, where the financial disclosure rules are already more lax that those that apply to businesses. Because the loans aren’t securities, states and cities aren’t immediately required to disclose them — despite the risks they may pose to bondholders if a government is pushed toward default.

“Nobody knows how many loans there are, nobody knows the total volumes of those loans, nobody knows the terms of those loans,” said Lynnette Kelly, executive director of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, the industry’s regulator. “I’m frustrated by it.”

The loan terms can favor banks over bondholders and add to a city’s financial risk, credit-rating companies said. For example, banks can demand accelerated principal and interest if a payment is skipped or a government’s cash falls below a specific target, which could push the borrower into a liquidity crisis if it can’t cover the bills.

“Most local government bond investors don’t have the right to be paid back upon default,” said Tom Jacobs, a senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service. “A private financing can jump to the head of the queue when it matters.”

Financial Wreckage

The municipal bank-loan business rose from the wreckage of the financial crisis, when cities and states used them to escape from floating-rate bond deals that turned costly when credit markets seized up. The business has continued to grow because hospitals, universities and others can borrow at rates comparable to those in the bond market, without the fees tied to a public-debt offering.

The push has made U.S. banks a growing presence in local-government finance. They held about $477 billion, or 13 percent, of the municipal debt outstanding by the end of June, twice what they had five years earlier, according to Federal Reserve data.

S&P estimates that loans account for as much as one-fifth of municipal borrowing. In 2014, S&P evaluated 404 direct loans of about $16 billion. Of those, 13 credit ratings were affected by them.

Lawrence, Wisconsin, followed on Sept. 17, when S&P cut its rating from AA to BB+.

Jennifer Messerschmidt, the town’s finance director, criticized the decision. She said one of its banks said it rarely, if ever, has invoked the ability to demand repayment by deeming itself “insecure,” a clause that protects a lender if a borrower’s finances deteriorate. She said the town is working with its banks to remove the provision in an effort to have its previous rating restored.

“S&P wouldn’t even give me a day to talk to the bank,”’ she said.

While states, cities and non-profits disclose the amount of bank loans in their annual financial statements, those reports often aren’t released until months after the year’s end and don’t reveal key terms.

Even though municipal issuers are required under federal securities rules to disclose all material information when they sell bonds, it’s up to them to decide whether the loans fit that bill, said Kelly, the MSRB director. The regulator has encouraged issuers to voluntarily disclose key details about the loans on its online repository, where bond documents for investors are now posted.

Full Picture

Lawrence hasn’t publicly sold debt since 2012. Instead, it borrowed $4.6 million from local lenders The Business Bank and Greenleaf Wayside Bank. The loans account for more than 60 percent of the town’s debt.

“If there was an acceleration how would they be actually be able to cover that?” said S&P’s Jane Ridley, a senior director. “Without a requirement to disclose, we can’t get a full picture of what the rating looks like.”

Messerschmidt, the Lawrence finance director, said the size and interest rates on the loans are disclosed in its annual financial reports. She said Lawrence is in a better financial position than when it last issued debt in 2012, when many cities’ tax collections were still being squeezed by the effects of the housing-market collapse and the recession that followed.

“I don’t think it was handled properly,” she said of the downgrade.

Caroline West, an S&P analyst, said the company can’t give a city such as Lawrence advice or help it structure documents or deals.

“We have to proceed with evaluating the information we have at hand,” she said. “That’s what we did.”

Bloomberg News

by Martin Z Braun

October 4, 2015




Americans Are Smoking Again, a Boon for Municipal Tobacco Bonds.

Americans are boosting spending on cigarettes for the first time in almost a decade. While that may raise health concerns in a nation that’s worked for decades to cut smoking, it’s fueling a rally in one of the riskiest corners of the municipal-bond market.

High-yield tobacco bonds, which are repaid from legal-settlement money that state and local governments receive from cigarette companies, returned 9.4 percent this year through Monday, almost five times the broader municipal market, Barclays Plc data show. That adds to a 19 percent gain last year, when investors plowed into the high-interest-rate securities that have been imperiled for years by the decline in smoking.

U.S. cigarette shipments that back the debt are now on track for the first annual increase since 2006, spurred in part by a gas-price drop that’s given consumers more to spend. Deliveries rose 2.8 percent through June from the same period a year earlier, according to data from the U.S. Treasury Department. That’s altering return expectations among investors and pushing some bonds to their highest prices in two years.

“Smoking shipments on the year have marginally increased — that’s obviously a big change from historical trends,” said David Hammer, manager of the high-yield municipal-bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. The firm, which oversees $40 billion of state and local debt, eased the constraints on its investment-grade funds last month so they could hold more of the tobacco bonds, he said.

The debt allowed governments to borrow against the money they will receive under the 1998 settlement with Philip Morris USA, Reynolds American Inc. and Lorillard Inc. The securities are among the riskiest in the $3.7 trillion municipal market because smoking has declined more rapidly than expected since they were issued, cutting into the payouts used for interest and principal bills.

The debt isn’t guaranteed by the governments that sold them, and much of the $91 billion of bonds are rated below investment grade. Moody’s Investors Service projects that a 4 percent annual decline in cigarette shipments would cause 80 percent of them to default. The deliveries have dropped by an average of 4.7 percent a year since 2007.

Waiting Game

Investors could be forced to wait for years after the scheduled maturity to recoup all that they’re owed if sales fall short of initial forecasts. Because the tobacco settlement continues in perpetuity, bondholders will eventually be repaid.

“Positive shipments of even 1 or 2 percent — that’s significant,” said Steve Czepiel, who runs a $992 million high-yield municipal mutual fund for Delaware Investments in Philadelphia. He said he’s keeping his holdings of tobacco bonds steady.

“If you sold them last year because you thought they had an overly aggressive run, you’ve missed out,” he said. “We still think they provide pretty good value versus other types of high-yield municipal credits.”

The tobacco bonds have outperformed the high-yield municipal market, which has been little changed this year. Securities issued by California’s Golden State Tobacco Securitization Corp. are among those that have rallied.

The debt, which matures in June 2047 and carries a 5.75 percent coupon, traded last week for as much as 89.4 cents on the dollar, the highest for trades of at least $1 million since June 2013 and up from about 83 cents at the start of 2015, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That size is common among institutional investors and is considered the most accurate reflection of a bond’s market value. The securities are rated six steps below investment grade by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.

Pimco is the second-largest holder of those bonds, with about $141 million, while Delaware is seventh with $27.3 million, according to the latest company filings compiled by Bloomberg. The funds have bested 92 percent and 68 percent of their peers this year, respectively, Bloomberg data show.

Some investors have doubts that the rally is justified. This year’s increase in shipments is probably an anomaly and unlikely to persist, said Timothy Milway, an analyst at New York-based BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manger. He speculates that the rise may have been caused by the decline of fuel prices, which has left consumers with extra cash.

Negative Outlook

“In the very short term, the number looks pretty good,” he said at a Smith’s Research & Gradings conference on Oct. 2. “Looking out longer-term, we’re still negative and we think the declines are going to be above trend.”

Other factors may continue driving demand for the debt even if shipments start falling again, said Bill Black, who runs Invesco Ltd.’s $7.4 billion high-yield municipal fund.

Fewer localities are issuing the bonds, driving down supply at a time when investors are searching for higher yields, Black said. They’re also among the most frequently traded municipal securities, which reduces the premium investors demand to hold debt that’s difficult to sell, he said.

The liquidity benefits were part of the reason why Pimco altered its prospectuses, effective last month, to allow for lower-rated bonds than before, Hammer said. They can now own bonds rated as low as Caa by Moody’s, eight steps below investment grade, according to an August supplement.

“Tobacco has been a strong conviction trade we’re looking to incorporate in other portfolios,” Hammer said. “We expect some maturity and principal return extension, but you’re being well-compensated even if consumption declines are worse than they have been in the last 10 years.”

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta

October 5, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on October 6, 2015 — 7:20 AM PDT




61,064 Failing Bridges Must Wait as Cities Borrow at Decade Low.

States and cities rely on the $3.7 trillion U.S. municipal-bond market to pay for roads, commuter trains and water works. Yet even with a growing backlog of projects, 61,064 deficient bridges and interest rates near a half-century low, such borrowing has dropped to the slowest pace in at least a decade.

About $14.8 billion of municipal debt has been sold this year for highway, airport and mass-transit projects, on pace for the smallest amount since at least 2005, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The population has grown by 7.5 percent since then, placing an increasing demand on America’s infrastructure: The Federal Highway Administration estimates that when it comes to bridges alone, one in 10 is structurally deficient. The American Society of Civil Engineers reckons that more than $3 trillion of work should be done.

“It’s a pretty deteriorated backbone,” Marc Lipschultz, head of energy and infrastructure at KKR & Co., said in an interview at Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit 2015 in New York on Tuesday.

“There’s not enough capital in the public domain,” he said. “It’s trillions of dollars of capital that has to be invested.”

One reason for the lack of borrowing: officials at local governments that were stung by budget shortfalls after the recession have been leery of taking on new debt. Instead, they’ve been seizing on low interest rates to refinance higher-cost bonds. About two-thirds of the $312.5 billion issued through Sept. 30 has been for that purpose, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show.

Federal subsidies briefly spurred work on infrastructure, though the program has since lapsed. Borrowing for new highway, airport and mass transit projects reached a record $65 billion in 2010, the last year of the federal Build America Bonds program, Bloomberg data show. The initiative paid a share of the interest bills on taxable debt sold for public works, which prodded governments to borrow.

Private investment should be encouraged as a way to find new sources of funds, Lipschultz said. KKR struck a 40-year deal in 2012 with Bayonne, New Jersey, in conjunction with the United Water unit of Suez Environnement to operate the city’s water system. He said such deals, however, haven’t been widely embraced.
“It’s slow in the making,” he said.

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta

October 6, 2015 — 10:48 AM PDT




Moody's: U.S. Academic Medical Hospitals 2014 Medians Show Stability and Solid Balance Sheets.

The 2014 fiscal year medians show US academic medical center hospitals (AMCs) benefit from operational stability, high revenue and expense growth as well as increases in cash and investments. The not-for-profit AMCs also benefitted from important strategic and financial relationships with top-tier medical schools and highly-rated universities, which bolstered joint fundraising an investment management…

The full report is available to Moody’s subscribers here.




Moody's: U.S. Municipal Water and Sewer Medians Demonstrate Stable and Positive Trends.

The full year 2013 US water and sewer utility medians show larger utilities enjoy greater financial resources and flexibility, while service area wealth correlates to stronger operating performance. Across the sector, debt service remains consistent and liquidity has modestly improved. Leverage is down for higher-rated utilities, but grew for lower-rated utilities…

The report is available to Moody’s subscribers here.




Problems Mount for the ‘Other’ College Debt.

The bond markets are giving a new grade to America’s small colleges: A gentleman’s C.

Spooked by bad news out of the higher-education sector in recent months, including unexpected campus closures, potential mergers and poor enrollment projections, some prospective buyers are steering clear of bonds being sold by small, private colleges that don’t have national reputations, schools that rely heavily on tuition revenue, and those in regions facing population declines.

Moody’s Investors Service Inc. in September warned investors to expect closures at public and not-for-profit colleges to triple by 2017 from an average of five a year over the past decade, concentrated among the smallest schools. Some small schools have experienced several years of shrinking class sizes, which leaves fewer students paying for their relatively high fixed costs, and have lost market share to larger universities, Moody’s said.

Concerns about market forces were at play at Roseman University of Health Sciences in Henderson, Nev., when the school of about 1,500 students sought $67.5 million worth of bonds to pay for a new office and research building last spring. The process took two to three times longer than usual, said Ken Wilkins, the school’s vice president for business and finance. Standard & Poor’s had downgraded the 16-year-old school’s debt in February, and investors were asking about everything from the market viability of the school’s academic programs to its possible responses to increasingly far-fetched disaster scenarios.

“It felt excessive at times, especially those questions which we affectionately began to call the ‘asteroid questions,’” he said.

Roseman ultimately sold the bonds at an average yield of 5.68% in April, about three percentage points more than highly rated municipal bonds, according to Thomson Reuters Municipal Market Data.

Roseman joined colleges and universities that are selling more bonds than ever. Schools including highly rated Stanford, Northwestern and the California State University System have sold a record $32.7 billion worth of debt through September, almost twice as much as in the same period of 2014, according to data from Thomson Reuters. This “other” college debt still is small compared with the market for student-lending debt, which is $1.2 trillion.

Yet as many colleges and universities are eager to tap the bond market to take advantage of low interest rates, bond investors have grown wary of their debt.

Yields on the S&P Municipal Bond Higher Education Index this week reached 2.55%, up from a low of 2.12% in February, and ahead of the broader market’s 2.38%. Yields rise as prices fall. Investors often find some extra yield in the higher education sector, which contains many high-quality bonds but has grown increasingly risky when compared with debt backed by essential services such as power or water, said Howard Cure, director of municipal research at Evercore Wealth Management.

“You can’t just buy bonds from your alma mater anymore, because you might end up getting the short end of the stick,” said Hugh McGuirk, head of the municipal bond team at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. He said his firm is generally avoiding small liberal-arts colleges and is sticking with schools that have national brands and strong student demand, either public or private.

Colleges and universities are selling more bonds, but investors have grown wary of those from smaller, private colleges. In contrast, Stanford University has a AAA debt rating. ENLARGE
Colleges and universities are selling more bonds, but investors have grown wary of those from smaller, private colleges. In contrast, Stanford University has a AAA debt rating. PHOTO: PAUL SAKUMA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Concerned about volatility in the public markets, some low-rated colleges and universities have been pursuing alternatives to bond issuance, such as placing debt privately or borrowing directly from banks, says Lorrie DuPont, head of the higher education finance group at RBC Capital Markets.

Hawaii Pacific University, a private school with campuses in Honolulu and Kaneohe, Hawaii, opted in January for short-term bonds to finance the renovation of a waterfront property, hoping that it can refinance the debt once its credit rating—currently BB-plus by Standard & Poor’s—improves. The school expects that the renovation will yield new retail and housing revenue.

The school borrowed $32.5 million in a five-year deal at a 4.48% yield. Bruce Edwards, vice president and chief financial officer, estimates that had the institution opted for a more traditional 30-year bond, it would have paid “a little bit north of 6%.”

All the school’s new debt was bought by Nuveen, which had acquired a chunk of the school’s $42 million issuance in 2013. While other investors expressed interest, “they were going to need to do some lengthy due diligence” and the school was looking for a fast close since construction was already under way, Mr. Edwards said, and construction deadlines outweighed questions over potential improvement in market conditions later in the year.

For schools without strong financial footing—or those in categories perceived to be susceptible to financial pressure—the timing is far from ideal. Many such institutions have put off facility upgrades since the financial crisis and now face massive deferred maintenance backlogs, or need cash to pay for capital projects that could make them more attractive to potential students.

Moody’s has been seeing undiminished demand to initiate ratings on smaller colleges this year, the firm says, as schools fret about higher interest rates on the horizon and look to access money through one outlet or another.

McDaniel College in Westminster, Md., is planning a private placement this fall to cover about $3 million in new energy-saving and infrastructure upgrades. That school last issued a bond in the public markets in 2006 and has funded renovations and a new stadium with donations and cash on hand.

W. Thomas Phizacklea, vice president for administration and finance, said a private placement was more attractive because it allows the school to avoid the upfront costs of issuing a bond in the public markets—including fees for lawyers, accountants and ratings companies—and provide more freedom when structuring debt-service payments. Mr. Phizacklea said the school is near a 10-year bank deal and has begun its cost-saving projects using available cash.

“I don’t think we’ll get a better rate” with a private placement, he said, “but I do think we’ll get more flexibility.”

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By MELISSA KORN and AARON KURILOFF

Updated Oct. 8, 2015 5:45 p.m. ET

Write to Melissa Korn at [email protected] and Aaron Kuriloff at [email protected]




GASB: Understanding Costs and Benefits - Other Postemployment Benefits.

Read the GASB report.




CUSIP Request Volume Shows Fifth Consecutive Monthly Decline Among Corporate and Municipal Bond Issuers.

“The phrase ‘don’t fight the Fed’ has become something of a mantra on Wall Street over the last several years and corporate and municipal debt issuers are clearly heading that advice right now,” said Richard Peterson, Senior Director of Global Markets Intelligence, S&P Capital IQ. “While CUSIP request volume has made it clear that there will be declines in new debt issuance in the coming weeks and months, we’re anxious to see whether that trend will continue once the first rate hike takes place.”

Read the Press Release.

October 7, 2015




MarketAxess Looks to Crack Muni-Bond Code.

The firm at the front of the pack in electronic corporate bond trading is trying to crack the code on an even more antiquated corner of the fixed-income market: municipal bonds.

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. is laying the groundwork to connect municipal bond dealers and investors electronically early next year, according to people familiar with the matter. The firm’s executives have met with clients and municipal bond dealers in recent months to gauge interest in electronic municipal bond trading including so-called “all to all” trading, which means different types of buyers and sellers trade with each other.

If successful, the New York-based firm would join a small group of existing municipal bond trading platforms and could benefit from its heft in investment grade and high-yield bond trading.

It is the latest attempt to speed trading and transparency in the $3.7 trillion market for debt sold by U.S. state and local governments, which the SEC described in a 2012 report as “illiquid and opaque.”

The market poses challenges for electronic trading because it has a larger number of securities and a greater number of dealers than the corporate bond market.

MarketAxess’s talks come as regulators have increased efforts to disclose prices, transaction costs and dealer markups to the retail investors who own about 70% of municipal bonds, either individually or through mutual funds, and who typically buy the bonds seeking tax-exempt income, often to fund their retirements.

The Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board last week proposed new rules that would require municipal bond dealers to disclose the mark-ups they charge retail investors on trades. Comments on those proposals are due Nov. 20.

For MarketAxess, the work resurrects pre-crisis efforts to build an electronic municipal bond trading system. Success in the municipal bond market would help diversify its product mix and it is aiming to attract institutional dealers and investors, the people said.

Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods wrote in a note this month that the potential for MarketAxess to expand into municipal bonds or structured products would require minimal investment because the firm could use existing trading technology. The firm currently has a market capitalization of about $3.5 billion.

“This makes sense to us strategically given that these are also illiquid markets – similar to that of corporate bonds where [MarketAxess] has already had success,” the KBW analysts wrote of potential expansion.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By SARAH KROUSE and AARON KURILOFF

Sep 29, 2015




Munis Cheapest in 5 Weeks to Treasuries as Payrolls Fall Short.

Prices in the $3.6 trillion municipal-bond market are the cheapest in five weeks relative to Treasuries after U.S. payrolls rose less than projected in September, spurring a rally in federal government debt on signs the global slowdown is affecting the world’s largest economy.

Benchmark 10-year munis yield 2.09 percent, compared with 1.92 percent on similar-maturity Treasuries, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The ratio is a measure of relative value between the asset classes. It reached 109 percent Friday, the highest since August, signaling that tax-free bonds are cheap relative to their federal counterparts.

Ten-year Treasury yields plunged 0.11 percentage point after a Labor Department report showed the U.S. added 142,000 jobs, lower than the median forecast of 201,000 from a Bloomberg survey of 96 economists. Weakening foreign markets, a stronger dollar and lower oil prices raise the risk that employers will hold off on adding workers.

Munis rallied to a smaller degree. As prices rose, the yields on both 10-year and 30-year AAA bonds fell 0.02 percentage point to the lowest since April, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The 10-year muni-Treasury ratio was as low as 94 percent in July. Over the past decade, the figure has averaged 97 percent.

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta

October 2, 2015 — 6:49 AM PDT




Junk or AAA? Rating Split Plagues Chicago as It Borrows Billions.

What’s Chicago’s risk to municipal-bond investors? It depends on which credit-rating company you ask.

In the eyes of Moody’s Investors Service, most of the $20 billion of bonds tied to Chicago are junk, as speculative as a charter school or regional hospital that could shut down. To Standard & Poor’s, the city’s park district is as credit-worthy as the U.S. government, and its sales-tax-backed debt is even safer. Only Kroll Bond Rating Agency deems the public schools worthy of an investment grade.

No U.S. city has caused a larger difference of opinion in the municipal-bond market than Chicago, which is being squeezed by soaring bills to its underfunded retirement system. The city’s sales-tax, motor-fuel-tax, water, sewer and park bonds all have at least a six-level gap between the lowest and highest ratings, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The discrepancy has led investors to err on the side of caution by demanding higher yields, threatening to saddle Chicago with added costs as it prepares to issue about $3 billion of debt.

“The dispersion in ratings just doesn’t make sense,” said Mikhail Foux, head of municipal research at Barclays Plc in New York. “Moody’s is too conservative and S&P is too relaxed about this. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.”

Chicago illustrates a rift in the approaches that rating companies use to assess municipalities, whose securities are backed by varying revenue sources and legal safeguards. Those can leave some bondholders sheltered if a city faces a budget shortfall or collapses into bankruptcy, as Detroit did two years ago.
The views on Chicago have become more divergent since May, when Moody’s lowered its general obligations to Ba1, one step below investment grade. While S&P and Fitch Ratings followed with their own downgrades to those securities, the companies have been at odds over how to gauge the rest of the city’s bonds.

Moody’s was the only one to downgrade all of Chicago’s other major securities: It reduced the park, sales-tax and motor-fuel-tax debt to the same level as the city, while the water and sewer bonds were cut to the lowest investment-grade tier. S&P and Fitch left some of those ratings unchanged, despite their more dour assessment of the city’s finances.

Buying Opportunity

The inconsistency has created pockets of value, Foux said. In particular, water and sewer bonds are trading at higher yields than they should, he said. The city plans to sell $439 million of the securities this month, the latest in a wave of offerings from Chicago.

“The market really does trade a lot of times to the worse-case scenario,” said Dan Solender, who oversees $17 billion, including Chicago debt, as head of munis at Lord Abbett & Co. in Jersey City, New Jersey. “Most of the market isn’t really looking at the higher rating anymore.”

Moody’s analyst Rachel Cortez said its Chicago ratings are so closely aligned because the securities draw from the same tax base or aren’t separated sufficiently from the city’s grasp to warrant a higher grade.
S&P said in a Sept. 24 report that a Chicago agency won’t be penalized just because of the pressure on the budget, given that some bonds are sheltered from those strains. Jane Ridley, the analyst who wrote the report, said sales-tax bonds have the first claim on that money, which gives them less risk that general obligations.

Karen Daly, a senior managing director at Kroll, said the rating differences can be explained by the separate security pledges backing Chicago’s bonds.

The analysis has been complicated by the risk of bankruptcy, a tool that Republican Governor Bruce Rauner has so far unsuccessfully sought to extend to Illinois municipalities. Were Chicago able to write down its debts in court, water and sewer bondholders wouldn’t stand to lose as much as owners of other securities, Fitch analyst Amy Laskey wrote in a Sept. 22 report. Hence the higher rating.

“All the different operating entities have differing bankruptcy risks,” Laskey said in an interview. Though Illinois currently doesn’t allow it, she said, “we always believe that if there were an entity that was in need of filing, that the state would find a way to allow them to.”

Market’s View

Trading in Chicago bonds shows the market is siding with Moody’s, which assigned the lowest ratings, said Justin Land, who oversees $4 billion of munis as director of tax-exempt management at Wasmer Schroeder & Co. in Naples, Florida.

The most-traded Chicago sales-tax bonds changed hands Thursday at an average yield of 4.6 percent, compared with 3 percent for munis with a similar 23-year maturity and the same top grade from S&P, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Park district debt due in 2024 traded last week at an average 3.86 percent, compared with about 2.1 percent for AAA munis, Bloomberg data show. Sewer bonds due in 2021 changed hands last week at a yield of 3.2 percent, or 1.58 percentage points above the benchmark, while water bonds maturing in 2032 traded at 4.5 percent, a difference of 1.75 percentage points.

“Typically we’ll be on the side of caution and kind of lean our viewpoint toward the weaker credit rating,” said Dan Heckman, senior fixed-income strategist in Kansas City, Missouri, at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $127 billion. “People are very well aware of the issues, and they want to have substantial compensation.”

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta and Elizabeth Campbell

September 30, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on October 1, 2015 — 12:08 PM PDT




Muni Junk Bonds Are Outperforming Other High-Yield Options.

Investors are finding an unlikely haven amid the rout in corporate junk bonds: their tax-exempt counterparts sold by municipalities.

The riskiest local-government bonds returned 2.9 percent through Sept. 29, heading for their best month since August 2014, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show. That’s more than four times the gain in the broader municipal market and stands in contrast to the shift away from debt sold by struggling businesses. High-yield corporate securities have lost 2.7 percent this month.

“People are looking for income streams, and at the same time they want some level of safety,” said Dan Heckman, senior fixed-income strategist in Kansas City, Missouri, at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $127 billion of assets, including high-yield municipal bonds. “They view the high-yield muni as a little safer place out of other risk areas that contain higher yields.”

After the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates at its Sept. 17 meeting, money flooded into mutual funds focused on high-yield municipals. The funds pulled in $178 million in the week ended Sept. 23, the first in a month, Lipper US Fund Flows data show.

The municipal bonds, which are sold for specific projects or by strained governments such as Puerto Rico and Chicago, have skirted the turmoil in other financial markets over the past two months, when stocks tumbled amid speculation that the world’s economy will slow.

Their relative security has been a draw to investors seeking to ride out the volatility, said Heckman. High-yield munis had a default rate of 7.5 percent over the last decade, compared with 32 percent for comparable corporate debt, according to a July 24 report from Moody’s Investors Service.

The recent gains stem the losses that came this year as Puerto Rico’s fiscal crisis escalated. The commonwealth defaulted on some securities for the first time in August and plans to ask investors to restructure debt that Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla says the government can no longer afford.

The default didn’t trigger an exodus from the municipal-bond market because the long-brewing crisis is seen as limited to the island. After initially pulling money from high-yield funds amid speculation about the potential ripple effects, investors have been adding money back, seeking higher yields as interest rates hold near generational lows.

With “the low-rate environment, there’s demand for incremental yield,” said Dan Solender, who helps manage $17 billion as head of state and local debt at Lord Abbett & Co. in Jersey City, New Jersey. “The credits have been holding in well. There’s not been significant issues so the credits are performing well.’

Chicago bonds, which were cut to junk by Moody’s in May, have pared their losses as Mayor Rahm Emanuel proposed a record property-tax increase to help cover the city’s rising pension-fund bills. Federally taxable Chicago bonds maturing in 2042 traded Wednesday for an average of $1.02 on the dollar, up from 96.7 cents on Aug. 31.

Puerto Rico securities have also rebounded since June. Garcia Padilla’s administration plans to ask investors to voluntarily exchange their securities for new ones with lower interest rates or longer maturities, a process that could shelter some bondholders from losses. Puerto Rico debt maturing in 2035 traded for an average of 74 cents on the dollar Wednesday, up from as little as 64 cents on June 30. That pushed the yield down to 11.2 percent from 13.1 percent.

“The Puerto Rico influence in the high yield indexes could be as much as 20 percent,” said Jim Colby, who manages about $1.6 billion of high-yield municipals at Van Eck Global in New York. “So that I think it is a very significant element of why we’ve had such good performance.”

Bloomberg News

by Elizabeth Campbell

September 29, 2015 — 9:00 PM PDT Updated on September 30, 2015 — 9:49 AM PDT




Connecticut Tax Bonds Draw Buyers Losing Faith in State Pledges.

Connecticut bond investors have more faith in the tax man than in the full faith and credit pledge of the state.

Though the extra yield investors demand to own the state’s general obligations instead of top-rated debt is almost the highest on record, its $840 million bond sale this week is drawing interest from Conning, Eaton Vance Management and Nuveen Asset Management. That’s because the debt, which will pay for transportation projects, is backed by dedicated taxes on motor fuels, oil companies and retail sales — none of which can be touched by lawmakers until bondholders are paid.

“If you’re going to make an investment in Connecticut, this is a credit that should be strongly considered,” said Paul Mansour, head of municipal research at Conning, which oversees $11 billion of the debt, including some state bonds. “There’s no appropriation required. So if there’s ever a budget stalemate, there’s less risk of a delay in getting paid.”

Connecticut reflects a shift in the $3.6 trillion municipal market, where investors have given greater scrutiny to securities backed only by a government’s promise since Detroit foisted losses on bondholders following its 2013 bankruptcy. This year, debt funded by legislative appropriations was tarnished when Puerto Rico chose to default and Illinois’s budget stalemate caused the credit rating of Chicago’s convention center agency to be cut from AAA to near junk.

Malloy’s Maneuver

Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy signed a law that boosted the share of the sales tax for transportation-project bonds this year and walls it off from the money spent by the legislature, an effort to spur spending on public works. As a result, oil company and sales taxes are being sent to a special fund, providing added security to investors.

Connecticut, the wealthiest U.S. state, has an Aa3 credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service. Only Illinois and New Jersey are ranked lower. That’s because the state’s economy has rebounded slowly from the recession, its pension system is the third-most underfunded nationwide and it has the most debt per resident.

The extra yield investors demand to buy 10-year Connecticut general obligations rather than benchmark municipals has climbed to 0.47 percentage point from as little as 0.27 percent in January, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That spread is near the widest since at least January 2013, when the data begin, signaling that the debt is viewed as relatively riskier.

The transportation bonds have retained their value. Debt issued a year ago that’s due in September 2026 traded last week at a spread of 0.49 percentage point, unchanged from the average over the past five months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“We do prefer this type of revenue stream versus the state of Connecticut G.O. pledge,” said Michael Hamilton, who runs a $284 million Connecticut open-end mutual fund at Nuveen Asset Management. He owns some of the transportation debt. “I have some room to buy if the deal comes a little wider, given the state has widened out as well.”

Malloy made improving Connecticut’s infrastructure a focus of his budget, which also cut spending and raised taxes on corporations and the highest earners. To fund his initiative, 0.3 percent of the 6.35 percent sales tax will be funneled toward the revenue bonds this year. The share will ramp up to 0.5 percent by the 2018 fiscal year, according to bond documents.

Railway, Roads

Proceeds from the new bonds, which are set to be sold Thursday, will fund improvements to the New Haven Rail Line, the I-84 expressway and the Pearl Harbor Memorial Bridge.

Fitch Ratings last week ranked the bonds AA, the same as Connecticut’s general obligations. The credit rater in July raised the state’s outlook to stable from negative, pulling it back from the brink of a downgrade, citing a budget for the next two fiscal years that appears balanced.

Carl Thompson, an analyst at Eaton Vance, said he agrees with Fitch’s more optimistic assessment. Mansour, the analyst at Conning, said his outlook for the state is still negative: His company’s May ranking of the fiscal health of states put Connecticut sixth-to-last.

Yet both agree the transportation bonds are a potential buying opportunity.

“Despite similar ratings as the state, I think that Connecticut’s special tax bonds are a much stronger credit,” Mansour said. “The state has accelerating debt service and pension obligations. With these bonds, you have much more predictable and stable expenses.”

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta

September 27, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on September 28, 2015 — 6:13 AM PDT




Government’s Continuing Budget-Buster: Paid Sick Leave.

While paid sick leave is critical to economic security and health for employees and their families, its impact is even more far-reaching — even contagious: When ill employees go to work, co-workers, clients and employers can get sick as well. But there is another health factor associated with paid sick leave: employers’ fiscal health.

For governments and the private sector alike, overly generous sick-leave policies can lead to unexpected back-end costs and potentially significant unfunded liabilities. In terms of employer costs, paid sick leave ranks only behind medical and retirement benefits. This issue is particularly acute for governments: While in the private sector almost 40 percent of employers do not offer paid sick leave, nearly all full-time public-sector employees receive some form of coverage.

So how are local governments managing their paid-sick-leave programs? And are cities and counties making the types of post-recession reforms that we have seen in other benefit areas such as pensions and retiree health care?

The answer is that paid sick leave (PSL) appears to still be quite generous, with few local governments seeking to reform longtime practices. In a national survey of human-services professionals for large cities and counties, Michael Thom of the University of Southern California and I found that only 14 percent of local governments had sought to reduce their cost exposure by enacting post-recession PSL reforms.

Most local governments have continued to offer generous sick-leave policies, including allowing employees to accrue more than 120 hours of PSL annually (53 percent) and having no limit on the number of PSL hours that can be rolled over from year to year (77 percent). Further, over 50 percent allowed employees to cash out unused paid sick leave upon leaving their jobs, while 40 percent allowed unused PSL to be used in calculating retiring employees’ service credits for pension purposes — one form of “pension spiking.”

Allowing paid sick leave for family members was widespread (89 percent), but other practices, such as sharing programs (allowing employees to donate unused sick leave to needier co-workers) and converting unused sick leave to vacation time, were not as prevalent (42 percent and 13 percent, respectively). While the percentage of local governments requiring a doctor’s note for prolonged sickness was quite high (over 70 percent), the number that perform sick-leave audits and have incentive programs to avoid unnecessary use of sick leave were quite low (both less than 25 percent).

Collective-bargaining status and employee classification — such as public safety vs. general staff — were both significant factors in determining certain practices. In local governments with collective bargaining, the practice of allowing employees to include unused PSL in pension calculations was more likely. Further, public-safety employees were less likely to be affected by budget-savings reforms after the recession, less likely to be required to have a doctor’s note for prolonged absences, and more likely to have sharing programs.

When governments elect to allow PSL to be accrued and rolled over from year to year with no limit, and either be cashed out when employees leave or used in pension calculations, the costs and impact can be substantial. That’s because much of the paid sick leave may have been earned during years in which an employee had a lower salary, while payouts at termination and for pension determinations are calculated at the highest salary levels. Also, many local governments treat PSL costs as a pay-as-you-go item, which means these expenses are seldom included as fixed items in their budgets.

As local governments recover from the recent recession and continue to grapple with unfunded pension and retiree health-care costs, their focus undoubtedly will turn to other cost drivers such as paid sick leave. Serious consideration for cost-containment measures should include ending the practice of applying unused PSL hours in pension-benefit calculations; limiting the amount of hours that can be accrued and rolled over from year to year; and limiting unused-PSL payouts to a nominal or fixed amount paid annually instead of allowing it to accumulate until retirement.

With such fundamental change on the horizon, local governments should work with their employees to adopt more sustainable, fair and innovative paid-sick-leave practices that also will provide employees with incentives to avoid unnecessary absenteeism.

GOVERNING.COM

BY THOM REILLY | OCTOBER 1, 2015

[email protected]




Expert Urges Expanded Use of P3s to Protect Water Resources.

More than 2,000 U.S communities are using public-private partnerships to meet pressing water-related infrastructure needs and many more localities should pursue them, argues the head of a water company trade association.

Municipalities can negotiate P3s to gain access to capital and technical, management and process-improvement expertise. These partnerships also will help them to apply new technologies that they could not take advantage of without such support, wrote Michael Deane, executive director of the National Association of Water Companies, in a Sept. 30 American City and County magazine column.

P3s can step in to offer fund system repairs and upgrades that the budget-strapped federal government cannot, he argues, citing the Environmental Protection Agency’s findings that more than 240,000 water main breaks occur each year. To make matters worse, the agency says it lacks the $384 billion needed to maintain drinking water systems through 2020.

On the other hand, the federal government is committed to fostering infrastructure P3s, Deane wrote, offering as examples, President Obama’s Build America Investment initiative and the EPA’s recently launched Water Infrastructure and Resiliency Finance Center. The center “will help ensure that communities have the information and tools to explore all opportunities for innovation in project finance, delivery and operations,” Deane wrote.

He singled out several examples of successful water-related P3s: A 40-year concession agreement through which United Water and investment firm KKR are investing in and operating Bayonne, N.J.’s water and wastewater systems and a similar 30-year deal Rialto, Calif., negotiated with Veolia North America. Meanwhile, CH2M and Spacient Technologies are improving communication between the city’s water distribution and wastewater collection personnel to improve operations, services and customer support.

Other success stories include a P3 through which United Water is, for 20 years, operating, managing and maintaining Nassau County’s wastewater plants that were damaged by Hurricane Sandy and Prince George’s County, Md.’s collaboration with Corvias Solutions to install infrastructure that will capture stormwater runoff and prevent it from polluting the Chesapeake Bay.

The Prince George’s stormwater P3 and others will be discussed during the CBP3 Sustainable Stormwater Infrastructure Summit to be held Dec. 7 in Philadelphia. For more information, visit the event website.

NCPPP

By Editor

October 1, 2015




High Coverage and Strong Legal Provisions Contribute to Strong U.S. Lottery Revenue Bond Ratings in 2015, Report Says.

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor’s) Sept. 30, 2015–Even in a period of expansion in casino gambling, national lottery sales continue to grow and to remain stable said a report published today by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services.

“We attribute this to the monopolies states enjoy on lottery sales, relatively modest prices, and consumers’ ability to purchase a product instantly at diverse retail establishments,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst David Hitchcock. “We also don’t see a lottery ticket bought at a retail checkout counter as necessarily representing direct competition to or from a casino visit,” Mr. Hitchcock added.

Standard & Poor’s maintains ratings on lottery bonds issued by four states– Arizona, Florida, Oregon, and West Virginia–under its lottery revenue bond criteria (see “Lottery Revenue Bonds,” published June 13, 2007, on RatingsDirect). In our sector review, entitled “Why The Odds Favor Continued Strong Credit Quality For U.S. Lottery Revenue Bonds,” we discuss the reasons why we rate these bonds ‘AA’ or higher.

Under Standard & Poor’s policies, only a Rating Committee can determine a Credit Rating Action (including a Credit Rating change, affirmation or withdrawal, Rating Outlook change, or CreditWatch action). This commentary and its subject matter have not been the subject of Rating Committee action and should not be interpreted as a change to, or affirmation of, a Credit Rating or Rating Outlook.

The report is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.globalcreditportal.com and at www.spcapitaliq.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-7280 or sending an e-mail to [email protected].

Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor’s public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided.

Primary Credit Analyst: David G Hitchcock, New York (1) 212-438-2022;
[email protected]

Media Contact: April T Kabahar, New York (1) 212-438-7530;
[email protected]




Ballard Spahr: Proposed Legislation Provides Further Support for P3 Transportation Infrastructure Projects.

Legislation recently introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives calls for the senior procurement executive of the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) to enhance the services of the Office of Contract and Procurement by working with agencies, states, and other grant recipients on implementing public private partnership (P3) procurement best practices.

The legislation, H.R. 3465, was sponsored by Representative Sean M. Maloney of New York, who sits on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. He served on a special committee panel that issued a report in September 2014 finding that P3s can be better utilized to enhance the delivery and management of transportation infrastructure projects across the country. The legislation calls for the senior procurement executive at DOT to develop suggested best practices to encourage standardizing state P3 authorities, including consistent, fair and balanced assumptions made in the calculations of unsolicited bids, noncompete clauses and other major P3 agreement elements.

A report by the Congressional Budget Office issued earlier this year found that P3 expenditures for the 36 highway and bridge P3s that have occurred in the United States over the last 25 years have totaled nearly $32 billion, which is less than 1 percent of the approximately $4 trillion spent on similar projects by all levels of government over that same period. While P3s cannot provide the sole solution to the nation’s infrastructure needs, H.R. 3465 intends to further encourage the use of P3s in financing transportation infrastructure needs. The legislation is among a series of recent steps taken to encourage the use of P3s.

A list of recent Ballard Spahr alerts on this topic are below:

Bill Would Create New Category of Tax-Exempt Bonds, Tax Credits for P3 Projects

Obama’s Proposed 2016 Budget Seeks To Address Infrastructure Needs

New P3 Legislation To Take Effect in Washington, D.C.

President Announces New Build America Initiatives; Introduces New Type of Municipal Bond

The full text of H.R. 3465 can be found here.

September 24, 2015

by the P3/Infrastructure Group

Attorneys in Ballard Spahr’s P3/Infrastructure Group routinely monitor and report on new developments in federal and state infrastructure programs related to transportation and other types of projects. For more information, please contact P3/Infrastructure Practice Leader Brian Walsh, William C. Rhodes, Steve T. Park, Christopher R. Sullivan, or the member of the Group with whom you work.

Copyright © 2015 by Ballard Spahr LLP.
www.ballardspahr.com




GFOA Executive Board Approves New Best Practices.

On September 25, 2015, GFOA’s Executive Board approved five new best practices and seven revised best practices, providing recommendations to government finance officers in the areas of accounting, budget, retirement benefits administration, capital planning, and debt issuance.

Understanding Your Continuing Disclosure Responsibilities.  The Committee on Governmental Debt Management updated this best practice to alert issuers to the increasing attention of federal policy makers and investor advocacy organizations on improving disclosure for government bond issuers. The updated best practice emphasizes specific areas for issuers to make improvements in based on the SEC’s 2014 Municipalities Continuing Disclosure Cooperation Initiative (MCDC), as well as separate SEC enforcement cases, such as the 2013 case against the City of Harrisburg, PA and the 2014 Allen Park, MI case. The GFOA is firmly committed to helping issuers understand and meet their federal continuing disclosure obligations, and have updated this best practice to further that effort.

Using Technology for Disclosure.  Beyond updating this best practice to increase issuer awareness of federal regulatory efforts to improve issuer disclosure, the Debt Committee also wanted to alert issuers to improved uses of not only issuer websites but new features on the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board’s (MSRB) Electronic Municipal Market Access (EMMA) system, which enable issuers to improve the flow of disclosure information to investors. Updates were also made to this best practice to advise issuers on concerns about using other digital communication platforms (such as social media) to transmit disclosure information to investors.

Using Credit Rating Agencies.  The Debt Committee developed this new best practice to provide guidance to governments about how to select and manage credit rating agencies. The best practice was organized to help finance officers navigate the ever changing landscape of credit rating methodologies, and alert governments to the key factors they should consider in hiring one or multiple rating agencies, the types of debt issues that may benefit from obtaining a credit rating, what an issuer should be prepared to do to maintain a credit rating, and guidance on terminating a relationship with a rating agency.

Defined Contribution Plan Fiduciary Responsibility.  Recognizing many governments offer defined contribution retirement plans as a supplement to a defined benefit plan, or in some cases, as the sole employee retirement plan, this new best practice developed by the Committee on Retirement and Benefits Administration (CORBA) provides thorough guidance on a clear and well-documented governance structure to guide plan administrators, sponsoring entities, and governing bodies as they provide sound fiduciary guidance of the defined contribution retirement plan.

Informing and Educating Employees about Retirement Benefit Adequacy.  CORBA built this new best practice to provide guidance to public-sector employers and plan administrators who have a responsibility to inform and educate employees about future retirement income in the context of the many variables that may compromise retirement benefit adequacy.

Adopting Financial Policies.  The Committee on Governmental Budgeting and Fiscal Policy (Budget Committee) rewrote this best practice, which was last updated in 2001. The document recommends that governments formally adopt financial policies, and provides steps to consider when making effective financial policies include scope, development, design, presentation and review.

Determining the Appropriate Level of Unrestricted Fund Balance in the General Fund.  This best practice is the result of the Budget Committee’s efforts to combine the existing Determining the Appropriate Level of Unrestricted Fund Balance in the General Fund and Replenishing General Fund Balance best practices. In the new version of the document the GFOA recommends that governments establish a formal policy on the level of unrestricted fund balance that should be maintained in the general fund for GAAP and budgetary purposes. The Budget Committee recommends that such a guideline should be set by the appropriate policy body and articulate a framework and process for how the government would increase or decrease the level of unrestricted fund balance over a specific time period.

The Impact of Capital Projects on the Operating Budget.  The Budget Committee prepared this new best practice following committee discussion about the analysis of operating impacts from capital, and the consensus opinion that such analysis is often deficient in practice. This is an indicator that practitioners are failing to understand the need, not effectively making the argument within their jurisdictions to include it, or lacking the tools and methodologies for calculating or showing the costs. To assist practitioners, this best practice recommends that governments discuss and quantify the operating impact of capital projects in their budget documents, and ensure that the impacts are identified on an individual project basis.

Assessing Risk and Uncertainty in Economic Development Projects.  GFOA’s Committee on Economic Development and Capital Planning (CEDCP) updated this best practice to better enumerate the steps in the risk assessment. The best practice recommends that governments recognize and evaluate risks related to participation in an economic development project before authorizing participation, and recommends that a project should not be undertaken if risks are determined to not be acceptable, and cannot be mitigated.

Monitoring Economic Development Performance.  CEDCP updated this best practice to bring greater emphasis to comparing the results of the project to the goals in order to provide more insight on the quality of the decision to authorize the project and to enable organizational learning from the decision. The best practice recommends that recommends that governments monitor economic development projects and program performance to ensure objectives established in an economic development policy are accomplished, and ensure that the finance officer plays a central, functional role in these efforts.

Establishing a Comprehensive Framework for Internal Control.  The Committee on Accounting, Auditing, and Financial Reporting (CAAFR) updated this best practice to reflect changes made to the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations’ (COSO) Internal Control—Integrated Framework from 1992. The COSO document, the most widely recognized source of guidance on internal control, was updated and expanded in 2013, and the GFOA recommends that state and local governments adopt the COSO’s Internal Control—Integrated Framework (2013) as the conceptual basis for designing, implementing, operating, and evaluating internal control. CAAFR also updated its Framework for Entity-wide Grants Internal Control best practice to be consistent with the expanded COSO publication.

Thursday, October 1, 2015




CUSIP: Muni Volume Hits 11 Month Low in August.

CUSIP Global Services (CGS) today announced the release of its CUSIP Issuance Trends Report for August 2015. The report, which tracks the issuance of new security identifiers as an early indicator of debt and capital markets activity, suggests a possible slow-down in new corporate and municipal bond issuance over the next several weeks.

Read the report.




GASB Invites Governments to Participate in Survey of Financial Report Preparers.

The purpose of this survey is to gather information regarding the activities that governments engage in when preparing and publishing their audited annual financial reports in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), when those activities take place, and the number of technical staff hours involved. To assist you in completing the survey, the GASB staff will be available to answer questions throughout the survey period.

The staff also will be conducting two telephone conferences to provide an overview of the survey and answer your questions—on Wednesday, September 30, at 10:00 am EDT and Thursday, October 8, at 4:00 pm EDT.

Download the survey.

Register for the September 30 teleconference.

Register for the October 8 teleconference.

The completed survey should be emailed to [email protected] no later than December 15, 2015.

If you have any questions about this survey, please contact:

Pam Dolan ([email protected])

Amy Shreck ([email protected])

THANK YOU




Cities Bear Rising Cost of Keeping Water Safe to Drink.

TOLEDO, Ohio — Standing at the edge of the Great Lakes, the world’s largest surface source of fresh water, this city of 280,000 seems immune from the water-supply problems that bedevil other parts of the country. But even here, the promise of an endless tap can be a mirage.

Algae blooms in Lake Erie, fed by agriculture runoff and overflowing sewers, have become so toxic that they shut down Toledo’s water system in 2014 for two days. The city is considering spending millions of dollars to avoid a repeat.

Similar concerns about water quality are playing out elsewhere. Farm fertilizers, discarded pharmaceuticals, industrial chemicals and even saltwater from rising oceans are seeping into many of the aquifers, reservoirs and rivers that supply Americans with drinking water.

Combating these growing threats means cities and towns must tap new water sources, upgrade aging treatment plants and install miles of pipeline, at tremendous cost.

Consider tiny Pretty Prairie, Kansas, less than an hour’s drive west of Wichita, where the water tower and cast-iron pipes need to be replaced and state regulators are calling for a new treatment plant to remove nitrates from farm fertilizers. The fixes could cost the town’s 310 water customers $15,000 each.

Emily Webb never gave a second thought to the town’s water until she became pregnant almost two years ago. That’s when she learned through a notice in the mail that the water could cause what’s known as “blue baby” syndrome, which interferes with the blood’s ability to carry oxygen.

“It just kind of scared me,” she said. “Now we don’t drink it at all.”

Instead, she and her husband stock up on well water from her parents’ home and buy bottled water even though health officials say the risk is limited to infants. When it comes time to buy their first home, she said, they will look somewhere else.

Pretty Prairie’s leaders hope to find a less expensive solution. They say the cost of a new treatment plant would drive people away and threaten the farm town’s survival.

Across the country, small towns and big cities alike are debating how much they can afford to spend to make contaminated water fit for drinking.

Cash-strapped cities worry that an unfair share of the costs are being pushed onto poor residents. Rural water systems say they can’t expect the few people they serve to pay for multimillion-dollar projects.

The U.S Conference of Mayors, in a report released this summer, found spending by local governments on all water-supply projects nearly doubled to $19 billion between 2000 and 2012. Despite a slowdown in recent years, it remained at an all-time high, the report said.

“We have a real dilemma on our hands,” said Richard Anderson, author of the report. “We know we need to increase spending on water, but many houses can’t afford it, and Congress won’t increase funding.”

In California’s Central Valley, low-income farming communities have gone without clean water for years because they don’t have money to build plants to remove uranium, arsenic and nitrates. Drinking fountains at schools have been put off limits, and families spend a large share of their income on bottled water.

A study released in June by the U.S. Geological Survey found nearly one-fifth of the groundwater used for public drinking systems in California contained excessive levels of potentially toxic contaminants.

Compounding the problem is the drought. Because farmers are using more groundwater for irrigation, contaminants are becoming more concentrated in the aquifers and seeping into new wells.

The drought has pushed Los Angeles to plan for the nation’s largest groundwater cleanup project, a $600 million plan to filter groundwater contaminated with toxic chemicals left over from the aerospace and defense industry. Some of the water will be drawn from polluted wells abandoned 30 years ago.

In the Midwest, where shortages typically have not been a concern, more attention is being paid to farming’s effect on drinking water supplies.

Minnesota’s governor this year ordered farmers to plant vegetation instead of crops along rivers, streams and ditches to filter runoff. The water utility in Des Moines, Iowa’s largest city, is suing three rural counties to force tighter regulations on farm discharges.

And in the wake of Toledo’s water crisis, Ohio has put limits on when and where farmers can spread fertilizer and manure on fields.

“But no one really knows how well that works,” said Chuck Campbell, the city’s water treatment supervisor.

Given that, the city has spent $5 million in the past year to bolster its ability to cleanse water drawn from Lake Erie. It is planning a renovation that could approach $350 million and include a system that uses ozone gas to destroy toxins produced by the algae. A 56 percent water rate increase is footing most of the bill.

In many coastal areas, rising seas mean saltwater can intrude into underground aquifers and in some cases ruin existing municipal wells. It’s especially problematic in the Southeast, from Hilton Head Island in South Carolina to Florida’s seaside towns near Miami.

“Nature’s calling the shots and we’re reacting,” said Keith London, a city commissioner in Hallandale Beach, Florida, where six of eight freshwater wells are no longer usable.

The city is considering relocating wells, upgrading its treatment plant or buying water from a neighboring town.

The water that comes out of the tap in the oceanside town of Edisto Beach, South Carolina, is so salty that it corrodes dishwashers and washing machines within just a few years, resident Tommy Mann said.

While technically safe to drink, it tastes so bad that the town gives away up to five gallons of purified water a day to residents and vacationers.

Voters narrowly rejected a proposal two years ago that would have doubled water rates to pay for an $8.5 million reverse-osmosis filtering system.

Said Mann: “We’re living in a beautiful little town with Third World water.”

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

SEPT. 25, 2015, 10:03 A.M. E.D.T.




High-Yield Muni Fund Plays the Edges.

As investors fled Chicago’s debt this year when its ratings were cut to junk, Nuveen Asset Management LLC fund manager John Miller gathered his team of analysts and asked if it was finally time to buy.

It was a typical move by Mr. Miller, who digs around in the corners of the $3.7 trillion municipal-bond market for big bets that might pay off for his High Yield Municipal Bond Fund.

The approach once counted as fringe behavior in a market typically described as dull and safe. But business is booming as the long stretch of interest rates near zero pushes investors into riskier holdings and redefines what it means to be a buyer of bonds.

Investors poured about $9 billion into high-yield municipal-bond funds last year, according to Lipper. Nuveen’s High Yield fund has been a big beneficiary, swelling to about $10.6 billion of assets from a peak of around $6 billion before the financial crisis. It is now the sixth-largest municipal-bond fund in the U.S., according to Morningstar Inc.

“It’s a reflection of the fact that interest rates have been low for so long,” said Howard Cure, director of municipal research at Evercore Wealth Management. “In their search for yield, investors are more willing to buy high-yield paper.”

Mr. Miller’s willingness to look for winners among bonds most prone to distress and default has produced market-leading returns in two of the past three years. But it is also a strategy that can lead to hefty volatility in times of market stress and outsize losses when investors want their money back.

In 2008, when municipal bonds fell about 2.5%, the High Yield fund dropped 40%. Then the market’s risks increased as bond insurance all but vanished, Detroit declared bankruptcy and Puerto Rico began slipping into financial crisis.

“We want to manage risk, but not shy away from risk altogether,” said Mr. Miller, who heads a team that manages more than $100 billion.

The municipal-bond market used to be all about shying away from risk. Investors prized protecting wealth over increasing it and bought the debt seeking tax-free income to fund their retirements. Mr. Miller’s introduction to it came in 1993, when he worked as a credit analyst at a Chicago firm managing highly rated bonds for wealthy individuals.

In 1996, he joined Nuveen as an analyst and soon was running a new $20 million high yield municipal-bond fund.

One of his big bets was on the Pocahontas Parkway, a nine-mile stretch of highway southeast of Richmond, Va. In 2003 and 2004, he said, he bought parkway bonds that were backed by tolls and had a face value of about $100 million for 80 cents on the dollar. The bonds were under stress, because some drivers were choosing free alternative roads and because the road had a reputation for being haunted.

It was the fund’s largest holding when an Australian company bought the parkway and backed the debt with Treasurys. The bonds went to about 110 cents on the dollar.

Mr. Miller has also poured money into charter schools, which can lose state funding if students leave. Today, his funds own about $1.4 billion in charter-school debt, a big chunk of the roughly $10 billion that has ever been sold in the U.S.

In 2008, Lehman Brothers failed, and clients pulled out hundreds of millions of dollars. Selling the bonds needed to meet those redemptions wasn’t easy. About half of the High Yield fund involved bonds with no ratings at all that wouldn’t mature for years. Mr. Miller had tried to hedge his funds against higher interest rates by betting against Treasurys. But interest rates fell and the price of U.S. government debt rose, amplifying the losses.

“I went out on the road, and it was difficult to be out there, because people were upset about the performance of the High Yield fund,” Mr. Miller said.

That year left the High Yield fund with about $2.8 billion in assets. It has since bounced back. Over five years, its total return of 7.71% was almost double the market’s, counting interest payments and price appreciation, according to Morningstar. Even so, an investor would have made more money over the past decade in an investment-grade municipal-bond fund from Vanguard—and would have paid lower fees and had less anxiety, several financial advisers said.

Mr. Miller says he adjusted the portfolio structure to prevent that kind of volatility from hitting the fund again. He also says he doesn’t court risk for risk’s sake. Unlike other operators of high-yield funds, Mr. Miller was wary early on about junk-rated Puerto Rico, which is in talks to restructure its $72 billion in debt.

But he did take a big swing on American Airlines. In 2012, when the airline went through bankruptcy, he went shopping for the riskiest debt available: $100 million in unsecured bonds issued by cities to build its facilities and paid by fees from the airline. Those bonds, worth pennies on the dollar, surged more than 60% in value two years later when American merged with US Airways. The new company converted the debt to equity, and the fund now holds about $145 million in American Airlines stock, one of its largest holdings.

Chicago, meanwhile, has underfunded its pensions for a generation and sold billions in debt, but Mr. Miller sees no sign of future financial distress. It has a strong business and financial community, many universities and few fiscal problems that couldn’t be solved by raising its relatively low taxes, according to Nuveen research.

The week after the downgrade, Chicago sold about $674 million in bonds at yields approaching 6%—more than 2 percentage points higher than comparably rated bonds.

As the sale opened, Mr. Miller sat in the tip of a triangular room full of traders manning their terminals and started buying.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By AARON KURILOFF

Sept. 22, 2015 8:54 p.m. ET

Write to Aaron Kuriloff at [email protected]




Fitch: U.S. Municipal Ratings Higher than GO Ratings Not Usually Warranted.

Fitch Ratings-New York-22 September 2015:  Market participants have expressed concern over a perceived increase in the incidence of widely divergent U.S. municipal ratings. One area in which Fitch Ratings’ opinion differs from some other rating agencies’ is the conditions under which dedicated tax backed (DT) debt may be rated higher than the general credit quality (GO debt) of the issuing municipality.

A notable example is the divergent ratings on the City of Chicago, IL sales tax bonds, which carry ratings ranging from ‘AAA’ to below investment grade. Bondholders should insist on a reasonable legal basis to separate ratings of DT bonds such as the Chicago sales tax bonds from the city’s GO rating. Fitch notes that there is none in this case.

Fitch rates the bonds ‘BBB+’ with a Negative Outlook, on par with the city’s GO debt rating. Certain other agency ratings (Kroll and S&P) are not capped by the city’s general credit quality which Fitch believes may lead bondholders to mistakenly conclude that these DT bonds backed by general sales tax revenues are legally inoculated from the bankruptcy risk of the city. In Fitch’s view, if the legal protections do not insulate revenues supporting the rated DT bonds from the automatic stay provisions of the bankruptcy code in a bankruptcy proceeding, the rating must be capped at the city GO. Although the risk of bankruptcy remains remote at ‘BBB+’, the city’s GO rating is the clearest, most direct expression of both the risk of bankruptcy and the linkage its DT bond has to that risk. Rating above the city GO can only be supported by one of three legal structures, none of which apply to Chicago’s DT bonds backed by general sales tax revenues.

SPECIAL REVENUE DESIGNATION ONE OF THREE LEGAL FRAMEWORKS SUPPORTING RATINGS DISTINCT FROM GENERAL CREDIT

One legal framework that permits Fitch to rate debt based on specific revenues free of the risk that a related municipality’s bankruptcy proceeding would interrupt payments is created under the federal bankruptcy code in the provisions that define ‘special revenues”. Fitch could rate debt backed by a strong revenue source multiple categories above the general credit of the municipality if Fitch believes the case for special revenue status is very clear.

The concept of “special revenues” is unique to Chapter 9 and the municipal bankruptcy process. Special revenue bonds are insulated from the municipality’s bankruptcy in two powerful ways. First, the lien interest in the special revenues continues even if it is a mere consensual lien. If the revenues are not special revenues, then the lien is lost as applied to revenues collected post-bankruptcy. Second, the application of special revenues and actions to apply them to debt payment is exempt from the automatic stay provision of the bankruptcy code. This exemption means that the trustee can continue to apply the pledged special revenues to pay debt service on qualified DT bonds. The power of these protections was evident in both the Stockton bankruptcy and the Detroit bankruptcy where water system bondholders were continuously paid debt service. Additionally, Fitch rates the Chicago water and sewer senior and junior debt as special revenue obligations at ‘AA+’ and ‘AA, respectively, notably higher than the city’s GO.

In Fitch’s opinion, there is no plausible basis to claim that the pledged sales taxes are “special revenues”. The Chicago sales taxes supporting the DT bonds are unmistakably general revenue for general governmental purposes and as such, are excluded from the definition of ‘special revenues’ in section 902 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Fitch expects the sales tax revenues would be subject to the automatic stay and default of the DT bonds would be likely in the case of a city bankruptcy. Therefore, an accurate and fair signal of the likelihood of in-full and on-time payment of the sales tax bonds must incorporate the city’s GO credit quality and ratings which ignore it understate bondholder risks.

SECURITIZATION AND SEPARATE REVENUE OWNERSHIP ALSO SUPPORT DISTINCT RATINGS

A second legal framework is a securitization authorized by state law where a municipality is empowered to “sell” its future revenues and these revenues are in turn used to support an asset backed security. This legal framework is the technique used by the New York City Transitional Finance Authority whose debt Fitch rates ‘AAA’. A third legal framework supporting higher ratings is a state intercept program where the state creates a flow of revenues and establishes a legal framework that directs those flows into a trust account solely for benefit of bondholders in which the municipality has no property rights except to flows released from the trust. In both of these frameworks, the basic idea is that the flows into the account are not property of the municipality. The municipality’s interest is only in residuals as they emerge, so the flows available to the debt are not interrupted when a municipality files a bankruptcy proceeding. The Chicago sales tax bonds fall into neither of these two categories.

RECOVERY PROSPECTS AND RECOVERY NOTCHING

Fitch’s ratings of municipal debt obligations are default risk ratings and are not “notched up” from default risk to incorporate an assessment of recovery. However, even if some form of notching methodology was applied, it is unlikely to benefit the rating of the Chicago sales tax bonds and certainly not by full rating categories. As the sales tax bonds are clearly not special revenue obligations, the consensual lien on revenues granted by the city would not continue following a bankruptcy filing. Bondholders would be competing with pension claims and GO debt holders for recovery. Of course a statutory lien could improve prospects for bondholders compared to general obligation debt and pension claims as a statutory lien continues post-bankruptcy. But there is no statutory lien benefiting the Chicago sales tax bonds. Even if there were one it would not in Fitch’s view support a multiple category separation.

LACK OF CHAPTER 9 OPTION IN ILLINOIS NOT A CREDIT FACTOR

Fitch does not make rating distinctions between municipalities in states where bankruptcy is an option and those where it is not. If bankruptcy is not currently authorized, Fitch believes it likely that the state could authorize it if necessary, or absent that, the municipality in severe fiscal distress would default on its obligations and take its chances in state court lien enforcement proceedings. Recent proposals and discussion in Illinois to allow municipal bankruptcy as an option for financially stressed issuers illustrates the basis for this approach.

Kroll acknowledges the risk when it writes in its Local Special Revenue Report on Chicago sales tax debt that a key rating concern on its AA+ rating of the sales tax debt is “the uncertainty of the lien on pledged revenues that would result if the city were granted the ability to seek relief under Chapter 9 of the Bankruptcy code and in addition if such relief was sought.” Fitch’s view is that this risk needs to be reflected in the rating up front. Failing to signal this connection in the ratings sets up a scenario in which bond pricing and yield can change radically when DT bond ratings inevitably begin aligning to the GO rating if distress increases and the GO rating declines.

For more information see ‘Statutory Liens Do Not Boost Debt Ratings’, dated July 21 of this year and available at ‘www.fitchratings.com’ or by clicking on the link at the end of the press release.

Contact:

Amy Laskey
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0568
Fitch Ratings, Inc., 33 Whitehall Street, New York, NY, 10004

Jessalynn Moro
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0608

Tom McCormick
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0235

Media Relations: Sandro Scenga, New York, Tel: +1 212-908-0278, Email: [email protected].

Additional information is available at ‘www.fitchratings.com’.




Muni Distressed Debt Firm Rosemawr Sues Over Revel Energy Bonds.

An investment firm focusing on high-yield and distressed municipal bonds sued the developer of a power plant that serves Atlantic City’s shuttered Revel Casino for securities fraud.

Rosemawr Management LLC, a $1 billion fund started by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s former head of municipal-derivatives trading, alleged that ACR Energy Partners LLC concealed defaults and used almost all its assets to make improper dividend payments to its parent company. In March 2014, New York-based Rosemawr bought $35 million of bonds that financed the power plant at 92.25 cents on the dollar. The securities have since lost 70 percent of their value.

“Although it was public knowledge that the Revel facility was not performing as well as Revel had intended, there was no reason to believe that Revel was defaulting on its payment to ACR,” Rosemawr said in the Sept. 16 suit, filed in federal court in Camden, New Jersey. “As a direct result of the fraudulent concealment of material information, plaintiffs purchased the bonds at artificially inflated prices.”

Distressed Municipalities

Rosemawr was formed in 2008 by Greg Shlionsky, a former Lehman Brothers managing director. The firm, which bought bonds backed by revenue from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s parking garages and has lent money to an assisted living facility in Georgia and a storm drain project in the Detroit area, also includes former Lehman municipal derivatives trader James Lister.

Greg Usry, Citigroup Inc.’s former co-head of municipal credit and financial products and Julie Morrone, who formerly managed Morgan Stanley’s high yield muni funds, also work at Rosemawr, according to the firm’s website.

Revel, which opened at a cost of $2.4 billion in 2012, was an attempt to bring a bit of Las Vegas to the east coast by offering more shows, restaurants and shopping. The property suffered from poor design and competition from new casinos in other states. It went bankrupt twice before closing in September 2014.
New Jersey’s Economic Development Authority issued about $119 million of unrated tax-exempt and taxable municipal bonds in 2011 on behalf of ACR, which used the money to build a heating, cooling and electric plant for the Revel resort and casino.

Bond Covenants

Revel had a 20-year contract to buy power and other utility services from ACR, a joint venture between South Jersey Industries Inc. and DCO Energy LLC. Dan Lockwood, a spokesman for South Jersey Industries, didn’t immediately return a call seeking comment. Frank DiCola, chairman of Mays Landing, New Jersey-based DCO also didn’t return a message.

Two Rosemawr funds bought $35 million of the power plant bonds at 92.25 cents per $100 face amount in March 2014. ACR and its owners “flatly lied” about defaults under the bond covenants which, if disclosed, would have lowered the price of the securities, Rosemawr said.

ACR hid Revel’s failure to make required monthly payments under the energy service agreement and entered into a “special arrangement” with the casino to extend payment terms without bondholder permission, Rosemawr said. ACR also didn’t notify bondholders it failed to fully fund a required reserve account.

The account “provided crucial protection of bondholders’ interests, because it provided a source of payments to bondholders until Revel became consistently profitable.”

Dividend Payments

Finally, ACR made $11 million in improper and fraudulent divided payments to its sole controlling member, an entity set up by South Jersey Industries and DCO, according to the suit. Under the bond documents, dividends were restricted if there was an event of default, Rosemawr said.

The $11 million payments “represented substantially” all of ACR’s liquid assets. ACR missed its June 15, 2014, debt service payment.

The offering statement for ACR’s bonds warned investors that the shuttering of the Revel resort or an ownership transfer meant bondholders couldn’t be assured energy produced by the plant was necessary or that new owners might get energy elsewhere.

Rosemawr said it believed financing wouldn’t be jeopardized because Revel would need power, regardless of who purchased the building or its long-term use.

“Had the plaintiffs known the information that was fraudulently concealed by the defendants prior to the purchase of the bonds, the plaintiffs would either have not purchased the bonds altogether, avoiding any losses, or would have purchased the bonds only at a dramatically lower price, thereby significantly reducing their losses,” Rosemawr’s complaint said.

Bloomberg News

by Martin Z Braun

September 21, 2015 — 11:22 AM PDT




Moody's: Entrance of U.S. Not-for-Profit Hospitals into Health Insurance Will Continue to Rise.

New York, September 25, 2015 — More US not-for-profit hospitals are likely to venture into the commercial health insurance business in the next few years either to gain market share or reduce costs through improved healthcare management, Moody’s Investors Service says. However, starting a new plan or acquiring an existing business carries significant credit risks as managerial skills shift, competition intensifies, and start-up costs rise.

“Different management expertise is needed to operate a commercial health insurance business versus an acute care hospital. Health plans require actuarial skills for pricing models and specific marketing and service acumen, for example,” says Moody’s Vice President — Senior Analyst Mark Pascaris.

Despite substantial risks to cash flow margins, the trend is expected to persist, especially among larger systems which can absorb the costs. Drivers include the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which encourages care coordination and population health management; continued focus on cost reductions, synergies through greater economies of scale, and creating new revenue streams, Moody’s says in “Hospitals Entering Insurance Business Gamble on Long-Term Payoff.”

“Not-for-profit hospitals with a health insurance business (often known as an integrated delivery system, or IDS) tend to operate at noticeably lower operating cash flow margins than similar health systems without insurance,” Pascaris says. “Entering the insurance business inevitably suppresses hospital system margins from the beginning.”

Moody’s says this is due to the inevitable mismatch between expense ramp-up and premium reserves essential to meet cash reserve requirements to execute the plan. The effect on credit will largely be driven by the pace and magnitude of the strategy and management’s ability for rapid adjustment, if needed.

Aside from new managerial skills, competition from other national and regional health plans is intense. Moreover, this is compounded by recent merger and acquisition activity among Anthem Inc. (Baa2, under review possible downgrade) reached an agreement to acquire Cigna Corp . (Baa1, possible downgrade), following Aetna Inc.’s (Baa1, possible downgrade) deal to buy Humana Inc. (Baa3, possible upgrade) which has skewed negotiating leverage between commercial payors and hospitals decidedly toward the insurance companies.

There are some hospitals with long-standing health insurance plans that have developed an expertise in managing both the underwriting and delivery sides of the business. These health systems have ample cash reserves to weather insurance cycles and regulatory changes that come with the line of business.

The report is available to Moody’s subscribers here.




How UBS Spread the Pain of Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis to Clients.

The Swiss bank packed pension bonds it underwrote into mutual funds it marketed on the island with a hard sell.

UBS had a good thing going in Puerto Rico. The Swiss bank served as an adviser to the commonwealth’s Employees Retirement System, led the underwriting of a $2.9 billion bond issue for the pension agency in 2008, and then stuffed half of those bonds into a family of closed-end mutual funds it sold exclusively to customers on the island. It collected fees at every step.

Now, with the U.S. territory in the downward spiral of a government debt crisis, it’s all coming apart for UBS, long the biggest retail brokerage on the island. After UBS helped the government dig itself into a deeper hole and put island customers on the hook for the losses that followed, its Puerto Rico saga has become a cautionary tale of how risks can multiply.

Angry customers have filed hundreds of arbitration claims with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. They’re seeking more than $1.1 billion in damages from UBS after huge losses in the tax-free bond funds, sold as high-income investments that would preserve their capital, and in the bonds themselves. Three of UBS Puerto Rico’s five offices have closed since 2010, and nearly 60 of the unit’s 140 financial advisers have departed. The bank’s retail brokerage market share on the island has dropped to 33 percent from 48 percent over that period.

Retiree Juan Burgos Rosado was 66 in December 2011, when he opened an account with UBS. A month earlier, he had taken a fall from a tall ladder, ending his career rehabbing real estate. Rosado was “the quintessential conservative investor,” according to the arbitration panel that heard his case. UBS advised him to move $325,000 from a maturing certificate of deposit into its high-income funds. Rosado invested a further $200,000 in 2012, when he sold a house, and $600,000 more in January 2013, when another CD matured. He tried to sell the funds later that year as they plunged in value. His statements showed they were still worth $450,000, but UBS offered him just $90,000. While most closed-end funds are listed on an exchange, these were not, so clients depended on bids and offers from UBS Puerto Rico to get in or out.

Rosado didn’t sell; he went to arbitration and won. In May, the arbitrators wrote in their decision that Rosado was “grossly over-concentrated” in the bond funds, which were unsuitable for a senior with no investing experience. UBS was ordered to pay Rosado $1 million, including $602,000 in damages. With six other arbitration cases decided on the merits so far this year, one of which went in favor of the bank, UBS has been ordered to pay out a total of more than $7 million.

The bank was disappointed in the outcome of Rosado’s case, says UBS spokesman Gregg Rosenberg. The claims arbitrated so far are not indicative of how other claims might be decided, says Rosenberg, who’s based in New York. “For more than 20 years, investors in UBS’s Puerto Rico municipal bonds and closed-end funds received excellent returns.” Losses beginning in mid-2013 occurred amid general weakness in municipal bond markets and Puerto Rican debt, the bank says. The funds, which have declined as much as 75 percent from their initial prices, have continued to pay dividends.

The UBS Puerto Rico funds were lucrative for the bank, bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars in fees and commissions. The fund family, which had as much as $8.9 billion in assets in 2009, was designed to be heavily invested in the island’s municipal bonds, using borrowed money. By mid-2013, the bonds UBS had underwritten for the pension agency represented more than half of the net assets in five of the funds. The pension agency bonds lost more than 80 percent of their value from when they were issued in 2008 through August of this year. On Sept. 10, Standard & Poor’s predicted with “virtual certainty” that the bonds will default.

Putting bonds UBS had underwritten into funds UBS managed would have been forbidden by the Investment Company Act of 1940—if the funds were sold on the mainland. But Congress exempted Puerto Rico when the law was enacted. Bloomberg Markets first reported on UBS’s activities on the island in 2009.

“UBS made itself a ton of money at the expense of its clients, with these huge conflicts of interest,” says Craig McCann, a former senior economist at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission who has been hired by investors’ lawyers to review more than 200 of the arbitration claims.

McCann, a principal at Securities Litigation & Consulting Group in Fairfax, Virginia, says UBS Puerto Rico sold its fixed-income mutual funds and the pension debt to customers with no regard for diversification or the appropriateness of the risk. “Whether it was a $50,000 account or a $50 million account, systematically UBS put clients into the same securities,” he says. “I’ve never seen anything like it.”

The bond funds have landed UBS Puerto Rico in trouble before. In May 2012, UBS paid $26.6 million in fines and restitution and was censured by the SEC, which said the bank had manipulated the prices of the funds in 2008 and 2009. UBS didn’t admit or deny wrongdoing.

While UBS settled with the regulators, Miguel Ferrer, then-chairman of UBS Puerto Rico, fought a parallel proceeding that the SEC brought against him—and got his case dismissed. In October 2013, an administrative law judge ruled the regulator had failed to prove its case. She found that the prospectuses and literature describing the funds were accurate. Ferrer, who built what eventually became UBS Puerto Rico, starting with a two-man office 50 years ago, retired in 2014.

Ferrer had championed the bond funds. “What is the problem?” he asked his brokers during a June 2011 sales meeting in San Juan that was recorded. “We have in your accounts almost $1 billion in cash that does not generate commissions,” he said. He touted the high income the funds offered and argued that they were diversified. “You have current yield, and you have a history of good performance. What the f-ck do you want?” The audio recording, first reported by Reuters earlier this year, wasn’t used in the SEC case; it’s in the hands of lawyers handling the arbitration claims. Ferrer didn’t respond to a request for comment made through his lawyers.

Retail investors aren’t the only UBS clients who’ve suffered. So has the pension agency whose bonds the bank underwrote. The debt issue was intended to help rescue a troubled system that was, at that time, underfunded by $10 billion. It actually made things worse, according to a 2010 study prepared for the pension fund by consulting firm Conway MacKenzie. “The $3 billion transaction was inherently flawed, misconceived and speculative as a mechanism to improve the system’s funded ratio,” it found.

In May, Puerto Rico estimated the fund’s deficit versus future obligations had tripled to $30 billion.

José J. Villamil, an economist in San Juan, said in a 2009 interview with Bloomberg Markets that the bond deal relied on unreasonable projections of future funding of the pension system to service the debt. “I don’t know what they were smoking when they put this together,” he said, referring to revenue forecasts in a report by Global Insight, a mainland U.S. consulting firm since acquired by IHS. Jim Diffley, lead author of the report, defends his work. “There were all sorts of disclaimers that these are forecasts and subject to error,” he says.

A year after settling with the SEC, UBS hired Villamil to serve as an independent director of 18 of its Puerto Rico mutual funds. So he’s now on the payroll of an affiliate of the underwriter, but Villamil still says that it was a terrible idea to issue the pension bonds in the first place. “I think it was a huge mistake.”

Bloomberg Markets Magazine

by David Evans

September 21, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT




Hospitals Issue Debt at the Fastest Pace Since 2012.

Nonprofit hospital bonds are being issued at the fastest pace since at least 2012 as earlier concerns over the Affordable Care Act’s implementation have largely abated.

As of Sept. 16, nonprofit hospitals in the U.S. have issued $18 billion of municipal bonds this year, already surpassing 2013’s and 2014’s annual totals, according to Bloomberg data.

This year’s pick-up in issuance reverses two years of pullback. As the Affordable Care Act — often dubbed Obamacare — began official implantation in 2013, wary hospitals put the brakes on capital investment until the future was more clear, said Mike Quinn, a managing director at Chicago-based B.C. Ziegler & Co.

“With factors like Obamacare decreasing utilization, reimbursement risk at the federal and state level and spirited negotiations with private health insurers, it’s hard to understand what your future earnings stream is going to look like with those headwinds,” said Quinn, who specializes in health-care investment banking. “So they borrowed less money for new money purposes.”

As a result, issuance in this sector fell 40 percent to $16 billion in 2013 from $27 billion in 2012, data from Bloomberg show. The following year, it fell even further, to $15 billion.

Trinity Health

The largest of this year’s deals was a $897 million borrowing from the Indiana- and Michigan-based Trinity Health Corporation Obligated Group priced in February, followed by a $504 million issuance from the North Shore-Long Island Jewish Obligated Group sold in June, data from Bloomberg show.

Issuers aren’t the only ones turning more bullish on the sector. The two biggest credit graders — Standard &Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service — lifted their negative outlooks for nonprofit health-care bonds in the past few weeks, citing positive impacts from health-care reform. Moody’s had previously had the sector on negative watch since 2008, when the Affordable Care Act was first announced. S&P lifted its negative outlook on Sept. 9, noting that sector still had challenges ahead but was “stable.”

Refinancing Transactions

Much of the boost in issuance this year has been the result of refunding, as health-care providers have been eager to take out older more expensive debt with less expensive newer bonds.

“We’ve had pretty robust issuance in 2015,” Quinn said, noting that refinancing transactions have made up a bulk of the issuance. “Borrowers have taken advantage of the decrease in interest rates.”

A push to refund debt has been a broader theme in the municipal market this year. State and local governments have issued just under $300 billion in bonds this year, about two thirds of which has been refinancing older obligations, according to data provided by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Bloomberg News

by Kate Smith

September 21, 2015 — 7:03 AM PDT




As Casinos Falter, Mississippi Sells Debt Backed by Gambling Tax.

Mississippi, the poorest U.S. state, is selling its first bonds backed by gambling taxes after its share of the winnings fell to the lowest since 1997, two casinos closed and its neighbors began looking at expanding into the business. Investors may still like the odds.

The $200 million of bonds carry Standard & Poor’s fifth-highest credit rating because the state’s gaming revenue covers the debt service 10 times over, even though it’s fallen almost 30 percent from the 2008 peak.

Potential competition from neighboring states, along with closures of a Harrah’s casino in Tunica and another on the Gulf Coast, may lead the the state to dangle higher-than-average yields to draw buyers to the offering on Wednesday, said Burt Mulford at Eagle Asset Management.

“There has been a trend of decline in this sector in terms of state gaming revenue,” said Mulford, a manager of tax-exempt funds for the St. Petersburg, Florida-based firm, which holds $2.4 billion of municipal bonds. “It’ll come at a very wide spread, at least initially, and because it’s a name a lot of managers don’t own, they’re going to want to add it.”

Mississippi joins states across the U.S. that have seen their share of gambling money dwindle as others expanded the industry to bring in cash after the recession. Last year, casino revenue dropped in 10 of the 12 biggest gambling states, including Mississippi, according to data compiled by the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

With more than $2 billion in revenue from 28 casinos, Mississippi’s industry ranks sixth nationwide. That’s drawn the attention of its neighbors: Alabama and Georgia pushed to legalize gambling in the last legislative session, said Jon Griffin, who tracks the issue for the National Conference of State Legislatures in Denver.

Alabama sought to establish a lottery and authorize casino gambling. Georgia lawmakers proposed a constitutional amendment to overturn its casino ban. Neither effort succeeded.

“Legalized gaming in Alabama could severely affect gaming revenue” because Mississippi’s Gulf Coast casinos drew 2.5 million visitors from its neighbor in 2014, according to the offering statement. Gambling on the Mississippi River, a center of the state’s casino industry, has already suffered from expanded options in Arkansas, with visitors from the state and Tennessee declining more than 50 percent in the past four years, the statement says.

Declining Revenue

In addition to the two casinos that closed last year, the Isle of Capri Casino in Natchez will shutter next month, according to bond documents. Offsetting that, a new one is set to be built by the end of 2015 along the Gulf Coast with more than twice as many slot machines and seven times as many table games.

Mississippi’s tax revenue from gambling fell in the 2014 budget year to about $164 million, a 17-year low, from as much as $230 million in 2008, according to offering documents. For the 12 months ended June 30, the collections totaled $167 million.

The state’s view on the gaming industry “is it’s going to be stable for quite some time,” Mark Valentine, director of the bond advisory division in Mississippi, said in an interview. “It’s not like there’s just one or two casinos.”

Almost two-thirds of the 23 million visitors to Mississippi casinos in 2014 came from another state, according to bond documents. While that keeps cash in the pockets of its citizens, it also makes Mississippi more vulnerable to competition, said Howard Cure at Evercore Wealth Management.

Hurricane Katrina

“If you attract people from all over the country, you’re taxing tourists, which is always preferred from a political point of view,” said Cure, head of municipal research in New York at Evercore, which oversees about $6 billion. “But there’s definitely a saturation point to this. I usually stay away from these type of pure gaming-secured-type debt instruments because of those risks.”

Mississippi’s gambling revenue is also vulnerable to bad weather. After Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005, the Hard Rock Casino didn’t open until almost two years later, according to offering documents.

Proceeds will be used to repair and replace bridges. In particular, as much as $18 million will go toward the Vicksburg Bridge, which spans the Mississippi River into Louisiana. It’s the most-heavily traveled bridge in the state to be considered “structurally deficient,” according to Mississippi’s transportation department.

The state’s 23-year history in the casino business has given it a leg up on states trying to capture its market share, said Mulford, the investor at Eagle Asset Management. He said that provides some cushion for the bonds, which mature from 2016 to 2035.

Twenty-year tax-exempt revenue bonds with a similar rating yield about 3.7 percent, compared with about 3 percent for top-rated debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The trend is down,” Mulford said. “But they have such excess coverage in their ability to cover debt service that they’re in a good position to cover declining revenues.”

Bloomberg News

by Brian Chappatta

September 20, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on September 21, 2015 — 6:28 AM PDT




Municipal Bondholders Beware.

The recent bankruptcy rulings in California and Michigan protected retirees’ pensions. But at what expense?

Four cities emerged from bankruptcy court this past year, and in each case, their road to fiscal stability was paved not with cuts to the pensions of firefighters, teachers and other local government employees, but to the wallets of bondholders who had invested in those cities. In California’s San Bernardino, Stockton and Vallejo, and in Detroit, bondholders faced losses of up to 99 percent of their holdings, according to Moody’s Investor Services. In the bankruptcy resolutions in all three California cities, the courts preserved full pensions for retirees, while in Detroit pensions were cut only by about 18 percent.

This has neither ensured nor clarified the future fiscal sustainability of those cities or for others with structural debt problems. It has merely perpetuated concerns that cities have found a get-out-of-jail-free card. In May, Moody’s sharply downgraded Chicago’s credit rating, attributing the decision almost entirely to the city’s pension liabilities for its teachers and its inability to pay for schools. Should the Illinois Legislature grant Chicago and other municipalities access to bankruptcy, many fear that municipalities’ political inabilities to rein in pension liabilities could trigger future bankruptcy court decisions that, as in California and Michigan, would have repercussions for municipal bondholders throughout the nation.

Naturally this is pitting bondholders against retirees. The former are critical to a municipality’s future and its ability to raise money to build and modernize infrastructure and services. The latter are a fiscal burden, but their pensions are stabilizing factors in two ways: They help attract the most competitive applicants to provide city services, and they help ensure that retirees themselves do not become burdens. This was an imperative factor in the resolution of Detroit’s plan to exit bankruptcy.

The importance of stable retiree income is echoed in federal law. The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. explicitly provides for continuity in pension benefits — but only for nonmunicipal corporate bankruptcies. The exclusion of cities and counties in this critical matter discriminates against the fiscal capacity of a city or county to invest in its own future. Some states, such as Michigan and Rhode Island, have reacted by making unique and needed commitments to the fiscal sustainability of their municipalities. Others such as Alabama and California leave cities to twist in the fiscal wind.

Almost every state that authorizes cities or counties to file for municipal bankruptcy imposes requirements or mandates. In Michigan, for example, that included the suspension or preemption of the authority of elected leaders. The post-bankruptcy process in Detroit of reverting to municipal authority came with strings attached, one of which is a decade of oversight by the state Financial Review Commission. The commission is charged with reviewing and approving Detroit’s four-year financial plan and establishing programs and requirements for prudent fiscal management. To emerge from oversight in 2018, Detroit must maintain a balanced budget for three consecutive years.

This state oversight is important to Detroit’s fiscal future in two ways. First, it means the state has a stake in Detroit’s long-term fiscal sustainability. Second, it means that municipal bond investors have greater assurance and incentives to purchase and hold the Motor City’s bonds, providing critical capital investment for Detroit’s future. The bankruptcy events of the past two years — in California and Michigan specifically — suggest the need to establish firm and credible fiscal actions to guarantee citizens’ essential services and pensioners’ sufficient income. Fiscal boards, which are outside of political considerations, would bear the responsibility to guarantee the continuity and honor of the fiscal commitments agreed upon by states and their localities — especially in the wake of a restructuring process.

The road back from fiscal distress or bankruptcy for state and local governments is far more challenging under current federal laws than for nonmunicipal corporations, so innovations that encourage capital investments in these cities’ futures are invaluable. Bondholders are watching.

GOVERNING.COM

BY FRANK SHAFROTH | SEPTEMBER 2015




S&P Credit FAQ: Proposed Criteria Changes Will Bring Greater Transparency to U.S. Municipal Water and Sewer Systems.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services is currently seeking comments on proposed changes in the criteria it uses to rate debt from publicly owned waterworks, sanitary sewer, and drainage utility systems. Our initial testing of the effects of these proposed changes—which will apply only to revenue-backed debt—indicate that roughly 75% of our more-than 1,500 ratings in this sector will remain the same if we adopt the criteria revisions. Of the remaining 25% of ratings, we are likely to see an even split between upgrades and downgrades, and nearly all will be no more than one notch. We don’t expect any rating to shift to speculative-grade status from investment-grade status, or vice versa. We view this sector as relatively safe and stable, and most of our ratings are in the ‘A+’ and ‘AA-‘ categories. Moreover, because several very large issuers dominate issuance in this sector, we expect the criteria changes to affect ratings on less than 25% of the par value of public water and sewer debt now in the market.

Standard & Poor’s last revised the criteria for public water and sewer facilities in 2008, and before, that in, 2002. The changes we’re considering now will increase the transparency and replicability of our criteria across the sector and more accurately reflect current and potential future risks associated with these debt issues, which are issued by cities, counties, or other public entities of widely divergent size and in all regions of the country. These new criteria will include some significant changes in how we assess water and sewer debt issues. (See “Request For Comment: U.S. Public Finance Waterworks, Sanitary Sewer, And Drainage Utility Systems: Methodology And Assumptions”, published Dec. 10, 2014.) We ask interested parties to send their comments on the proposed criteria revision HERE or HERE  by Feb. 28, 2015, and we will take them into consideration before issuing a definitive update to our criteria.

Here are answers to some frequently asked questions about the most significant changes we’re proposing to our criteria for these ratings.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you explain the new “operational management” assessment in the proposed criteria?

As proposed, this assessment will account for 10% of an issuer’s total enterprise risk assessment and will take into account several factors pertaining to an entity’s day-to-day operations that can have an impact on credit quality. One of these factors, for instance, would be a water utility’s drought management plan—a factor that has taken on more importance in some states, such as California. Some questions to consider include “Does the issuer have a clear plan to address a prolonged decline in water availability?” and “Does the utility have the management expertise to fulfill its drought planning and to communicate effectively to its stakeholders?”

Another factor that we’ll now explicitly and separately consider as part of the operational management assessment is the utility’s rate-setting practices. Although municipal water and sewer systems tend to have wide latitude in their rate-setting ability, they must still comply with state and federal environmental regulations to ensure public health and safety, and doing so may sometimes require rate adjustments.

The operational management assessment is designed to not only assess the adequacy of the water supply or treatment capacity, but will also take a hard look at the physical integrity and capacity of a system’s assets, its ability to meet peak demand in its service area, along with its compliance with all environmental regulations.

How will the proposed “financial management” assessment section of the criteria work?

The financial management assessment will account for 10% of an issuer’s total financial risk assessment. This assessment will consider the robustness of a utility’s financial policies and internal controls and evaluate whether its long-term planning is well-constructed and realistic, and will also look at the assumptions that go behind that planning. We will also, as part of this assessment, consider the quality, transparency, and timeliness of the utility’s financial reports. The financial management assessment would be in line with a similar assessment that Standard & Poor’s currently performs for local government general obligation (GO) ratings.

The financial management assessment analyzes how a utility makes financial decisions, including how it identifies and addresses both ordinary and extraordinary costs, its ability to fund them, and whether it transparently reviews and publicly reports those risks. We assume that financial results manifest themselves in other visible ways and address them elsewhere in the criteria, specifically in coverage and liquidity assessments.

What is the “market position” assessment in the proposed criteria?

The market position assessment will essentially look at the rate affordability within a utility’s service area. It will account for 25% of the total enterprise risk assessment. Affordability has been an increasingly important factor in some localities, despite the long-held contention that because people can’t live without water, they’ll always find a way to pay for it. We’ve recently seen instances where a significant percentage of water bills are going unpaid and management is struggling with collections in light of public health concerns. Affordability has also been an issue for other systems facing consent decrees and rising capital costs. The affordability of water has also come under discussion by the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Environmental Protection Agency.

This assessment will look at typical water usage in a utility’s service area and its cost to consumers, both on an absolute basis and as a share of median household income in that area. And recognizing that there will be households living well below an area’s median income, the proposed criteria change will also take into consideration the poverty rate in the utility’s service area. These measures will allow us to assess affordability across an area’s income spectrum to give a more complete picture of overall affordability.

Will evaluating affordability be separate from looking at an area’s local economy?

Although household income is clearly related to an area’s economy, we will continue to use a separate assessment of economic fundamentals as the largest part of an issuer’s total enterprise risk assessment score, at 45%. The economic fundamentals will continue to include assessments of a utility’s customer base, the demographics of its service area, the major employers located there, and trends in the local economy.

Can you explain the changes to coverage metrics in the proposed criteria?

We will now evaluate the total financial capacity of water and sewer bonds using a single metric of “all-in” coverage, regardless of the specific nature of the debt or its lien position. That means we will include any debt or debt-like instruments that are ultimately supported by ongoing utility revenues, whether on- or off-balance-sheet, in our calculation of all-in debt service coverage. We propose to include any debt that receives regular support from surplus net operating revenues, whether specifically pledged or not. We would also include any net revenue transfers from the utility to other jurisdictions (which we now treat as an operating expense) as part of this calculation.

We thus define all-in coverage as: (Revenues-Expenses-Net Transfers + Fixed Costs)/ (All Revenue Bond Debt Service + Fixed Costs + Self-Supporting Debt).

The effect of this change could, in many cases, reduce the debt service coverage we calculate for a utility. For instance, the coverage of its senior debt might be 2x, but when all-in coverage is the measurement, the ratio might fall to 1.5x. The use of a single metric for all-in debt coverage is, under the proposed criteria, similar to Standard & Poor’s treatment of coverage for U.S. public power utilities.

Will other major rating factors in your criteria remain the same?

Yes. We will continue to heavily weight economic fundamentals when rating these issues, and a utility’s liquidity and reserves—both the number of days of cash on hand and actual cash in dollar terms—will remain significant rating factors. A utility’s total debt will also continue to be a major rating factor, including not just the dollar figure, but also the allocation of debt by lien and how quickly or slowly that debt matures. And we will still evaluate how aggressive management has been in the type of debt it has selected, and whether its choices have introduced any contingent risks for the utility.

Will ratings that come out of the proposed criteria be subject to the same caps as before?

We are introducing several specific ratings caps into the rating process. These generally relate to very weak management or exceptionally poor financial performance that threatens timely bond repayment. We will base these caps on the presence or absence of particular characteristics or events that pose extreme risks, which likely have already indicated extraordinary credit weakness.

24-Feb-2015




Redevelopment Inches Back in California.

LOS ANGELES — California Gov. Jerry Brown has signed legislation that brings back redevelopment, in a limited way.

Brown fought for the laws that dissolved California’s more than 400 redevelopment agencies in 2011 and has vehemently opposed efforts to bring them back in any form – until now.

“These important new measures enacted today will help boost economic development in some of our most disadvantaged and deserving communities,” Brown said in a statement Tuesday.

Brown signed a trio of bills.

One bill authorizes creation of new community revitalization investment authorities that can use tax-increment financing, the cornerstone of redevelopment.

Such financing involves the issuance of tax allocation bonds that use the incremental growth of property tax revenue in a designated district to back the debt.

Another bill tweaks 2014 legislation that created of new enhanced infrastructure financing districts, also with the power to issue tax-increment debt. The third bill, which received mixed reviews from local government officials and advocates, is designed to streamline the process of dissolving the previous redevelopment agencies.

“We have the trifecta,” said Larry Kosmont, president and chief executive officer of Kosmont Companies, a Los Angeles-based government and development consulting firm. “It is going to be a wild and exciting time in California for public-private financing.”

Assembly Bill 313 modifies the 2014 enhanced infrastructure financing district law to make it easier to create public-private partnerships while protecting the rights of residents displaced by projects financed through the districts.

Assembly Bill 2 establishes the new revitalization districts, a limited version of redevelopment targeting only the state’s most impoverished areas and boosting the set aside for affordable housing to 25%. Under the definition of blight in the new law, districts can only be created in places where residents make less than 80% of the state’s annual median income, the area has an unemployment rate 3% higher than the state average, a 5% higher crime rate than the state average, and a severely dilapidated infrastructure.

Neither measure allows the areas to benefit from school districts’ share of incremental property tax growth. Cities, counties and special districts, who would be contributing tax increment, have to agree to contribute their share to the joint partnership authority under AB2.

The exclusion of the school share, as well as the opt-in nature of the bill for other agencies with tax increment, made the concept more palatable to the governor, according to Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins office. Brown credited Atkins’ “tireless efforts” for the bills’ passage.

“The dissolution of redevelopment removed a valuable tool for creating affordable housing,” Atkins said. “Taken together, this trio of measures is a huge step toward filling that gap and helping our most disadvantaged citizens.”

The former redevelopment agencies have been going through a complex dissolution process since laws eradicating them took effect in early 2012.

Senate Bill 107 – a bill aimed at streamlining dissolution – went through major modifications in the final hours of the Legislature’s session.

Outstanding loans between cities and counties and their former redevelopment agencies have been a bone of contention between the state Department of Finance and the cities. Prior to the bill, the state tended to reimburse for cash loans, but was less likely to approve repayment when the city paid construction costs under an agreement that the redevelopment agency would bond for a project and reimburse the city later.

SB107 expands the definition of loans to include such agreements, but set a ceiling of $5 million on repayments.SB 107 would provide relief to 35 or 40 redevelopment successor agencies that have been prohibited from spending the proceeds of bonds issued between Jan. 1, 2011 and June 28, 2011. The bill sets a sliding scale for how much of the bond proceeds can be spent, ranging from 45% for bonds issued in January 2011 to 20% for those issued in June 2011.

The law that dissolved the state’s redevelopment agencies prohibited the use of bonds issued between Jan 1, 2011, the date the RDA dissolution law was introduced, and the June 28, 2011, the state it passed, because some lawmakers felt that agencies were racing to issue bonds before the law dissolving RDAs was passed.

The new law also permits 100% of the proceeds of redevelopment bonds issued for affordable housing in 2011 to be spent.

Kosmont called SB107 redevelopment’s last act, further describing it as “How do we bury redevelopment, sooner, rather than later?”

The regulatory processes are designed to insure that redevelopment winds down by 2018, he said.

THE BOND BUYER

BY KEELEY WEBSTER

SEP 23, 2015 4:22pm ET




Stifel's 'Transformational Acquisitions' Fuel Muni Growth.

Stifel Financial Corp. is approaching yet another milestone in its transformation from a regional player into a national wealth management and investment banking firm.

With the acquisition of Sterne Agee Group Inc. just completed, the St. Louis-based firm is focused on finishing its deal to acquire Barclays Wealth and Investment Management Americas by year-end, as it pursues a strategy that has helped build its global wealth management platform to $1.3 billion, according to a September financial report.

“The Stifel story has changed dramatically in the last five to six years,” said Ken Williams, executive vice president of the broker dealer division, Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., and director of its municipal finance group.

“The Stifel today is different than it was seven or eight years ago … we have a lot more capital and capabilities,” Williams said, as the firm completes a 15th year of aggressive growth, fueled by mergers and acquisitions.

The acquisition of the Barclays unit will further expand Stifel’s public finance role and build its presence as a national underwriter seeking senior-managed roles on larger deals.

Williams said Stifel has already broadened its reach into different segments of public finance by increasing its total public finance staff to 170, with most of the growth attributable to key mergers and acquisitions over the last two years.

The most recent growth spurt included the expansion of its wealth management and fixed income capabilities through the June acquisition of Sterne Agee, a Birmingham, Ala.-based financial services firm.

Stifel, Nicolaus this year has advanced to seventh place among all senior book runners, from 10th in 2014, with 485 issues totaling $10.65 billion in the first half of 2015, as of July 6 data provided by Thomson Reuters.

It had secured a top-10 ranking in three categories in 2014. In addition to its 10th place ranking among all senior managers, it was in the top group for negotiated deals and small deals.

The acquisition of Sterne Agee was a seamless transition that added nine municipal professionals — five public finance bankers and four traders – to Stifel, Nicolaus, Williams said.

It also helped boost its public finance banking presence in the South, with the addition of two public finance bankers in Texas, and expanded its coverage of the housing sector.

The Sterne Agee merger is the latest move toward the 124-year-old firm’s “strategic vision,” which is “to build the premier wealth management and investment banking firm,” according to its September financial report.

Sterne Agee’s fixed income platform was complementary to Stifel’s existing products and services, and the acquisition would allow the firm to “catapult” to a new level, Ronald J. Kruszewski, chairman and chief executive officer of Stifel, said in a Feb. 2015 press release announcing the merger.

The deal will accelerate the growth in the firm’s fixed income platform and be a strong contributor to the expansion of the institutional group, Kruszewski said in a June 5 release, when the merger was completed.

“This acquisition furthers our goal of creating a balanced, well-diversified business mix with wealth management and institutional exposure,” he said.

Eric Needleman, chairman of Sterne Agee Group Inc., said the merger gives Sterne Agee’s shareholders, clients, and employees an opportunity to “prosper in the ever-challenging financial services arena” after a century of its own growth and success.

“Our goal of being a preeminent financial services company has not changed, but we are accelerating this plan by joining together with a like-minded company with a similar legacy,” Needleman said in the February release.

Stifel has similar expectations for the merger with Barclays, which is expected to come mid-fourth quarter, according to a Stifel spokesperson.

The deal will marry Stifel’s broad investment advisors platform, and asset management and investment capabilities with Barclays’ capital markets division and investment advisory and managed money divisions, among others.

Stifel attributes much of its recent growth and expansion since 2000 to its “transformational acquisitions” strategy.

Stifel’s build-up dates back to at least 2000, when it merged with Hanifen Imhoff. In 2005, it acquired Legg Mason Capital Markets. In 2006, it bought Miller Johnson Steichen Kinnard’s private client group.

In 2007, Stifel acquired Ryan Beck and separately purchased First Service Bank. In 2008, it formed Choice Financial Partners and separately acquired 17 offices from Butler Wick. In 2009, Stifel purchased 56 branches from UBS. In 2010, it acquired Thomas Weisel Partners Group. In 2011, it took Stone & Youngberg, where Williams was the former head of the municipal bond department. In 2012, it purchased Miller Buckfire. In 2013, it merged with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

Last year, Stifel acquired the Los Angeles-based public finance investment banking boutique De La Rosa & Co., and also picked up a bond-trading business in 2013 from Knight Capital Group Inc.

“Before Stone & Youngberg, the public finance footprint was primarily in the Midwest and a small footprint in Denver,” Williams said. Prior to Oct. 2011 the firm was mostly active in Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, and had bankers in Illinois and Colorado, he said.

The recent acquisitions have expanded that reach, specifically the municipal operations, he said. “The goal of the municipal division is really reflective of the CEO” and his vision of building a national, rather than a regional, presence.

“The CEO is a big believer of the municipal marketplace,” Williams said. “The growth of the municipal group is part of the overall plan to build a bigger firm and build out a part of the institutional side, which wasn’t what he wanted it to be.”

One of the largest long-term deals that Stifel has managed to date was a six-pronged sale totaling $537.48 million from the Industry, Calif., Public Facilities Authority in June.

Stifel was also senior manager in June of Los Angeles, Calif.’s $1.4 billion tax and revenue anticipation note sale in the short-term market.

“We do business in almost every region in the country,” and maintain public finance offices in 21 different locations, Williams said.

Currently its structure includes, but it not limited to, its global wealth management platform, which includes a private client division that grew by 35% as a result of the merger with Sterne Agee to 2,800 financial advisors in 349 branches with over $200 billion in client assets, according to the firm.

Its asset management platform has over $22 billion in total assets, including fixed income and municipals, according to the report.

The firm offers equity and fixed income sales and trading, and maintains investment banking and research platforms as part of its overall business structure.

“We had a very busy first half and we were busy in July,” Williams said, though the banking activity slowed down because of seasonal cycles like income tax season and summer vacations. “We are expecting the rest of the year to remain busy,” and expect municipal supply to be unencumbered by any potential movement by the Federal Reserve Board before year end, Williams said.

“I don’t know that a modest rate increase by the Fed will have any effects on refunding, and I don’t see a rate hike affecting the volume for new money.”

Williams said the firm hopes to continue the growth and expansion of its municipal operations. The firm aims to maintain its high distribution of municipal bonds and its status as a lead underwriter of K-12 financings and tax increment financings across the country, he said. It also strives to win larger issuer transactions as senior book-running manager and boost its retail presence from its institutionally-driven underwriting and trading focus.

“Our challenge and what we are trying to do,” he said, “is build a more dynamic and successful municipal practice.”

THE BOND BUYER

by Christine Albano

SEP 23, 2015 2:04pm ET




Moody's Predicts Long-Term Increase in Cross-Sector U.S., International P3s.

An increasing number of U.S. state and local governments are likely to use public-private partnerships, to build both transportation infrastructure projects and courthouse, education, water, waste water and other social infrastructure projects, a major credit rating agency predicted, while noting that this list is not likely to include hospitals.

Unlike the United Kingdom and Canada, whose governments are heavily involved in providing national health care, “[t]he U.S. has a diverse mix of public, private and not-for-profit hospitals that each derive revenue from numerous sources, including a mix of private and public insurance. As such, hospitals will likely remain a small component of the U.S. P3 market,” Moody’s Investment Services said in a FAQ on P3s it issued Sept. 21.

Some states are using P3s to develop other types of social infrastructure projects, ranging from Kentucky’s state-wide broadband installation project and university and college student housing projects across the country to a senior housing development in Joplin, Mo.

P3s are being conducted to an increasing extent throughout the world but how they are financed and structured and the political and economic conditions that shape them vary widely from one country to the next, Moody’s pointed out.

The United States has long relied on P3s to help finance transportation projects. However, Canada also differs from its North American cousin in that it provides substantial funding for the many types of P3s during the construction phase.

In France and the UK, Europe’s largest P3 markets, the number of partnerships increased significantly in 2014; many were not new projects, however, but consisted of legacy or refinancing deals. This lack of growth in new P3 reflects each of these countries’ budget constraints, the public’s value-for-money concerns and “Eurostat’s developing interpretation of accounting rules that will make it more difficult to treat the associated debt as ‘off balance sheet,’” Moody’s wrote.

In Latin America, Columbia and Peru are on the forefront of countries that are pursuing these partnerships. Brazil and Mexico, on the other hand, have various projects in the pipeline but many are slow to reach financial close or are delayed or canceled. This trend may reflect lack of expertise in negotiating these agreements or changes in political policies or government priorities, Moody’s suggested. These countries are likely to continue to pursue these partnerships to address a lack of public infrastructure funding, however.

Australia is expected to increase the number of P3s it conducts to meet infrastructure gaps and the needs of its growing population, even though availability-based P3s remain on governments’ balance sheets and incur more debt than publicly funded projects, the credit rating agency reported.

China, a relative newcomer to this procurement approach, hopes to replace regional and local governments’ infrastructure financing vehicles with P3s and by issuing bonds. Partnerships would be used to build many different types of projects, “including transportation, municipal utilities and social infrastructure,” Moody’s wrote.

The central government hopes this procurement model will improve project and local government management practices, spur local public finance reform and reduce local government debt. China’s finance ministry has announced 30 P3s and the government has set up a database containing 1,043 projects that would require investment of almost 2 trillion renminbi ($300 billion).

Moody’s believes that the United States could become the largest P3 market in the world, Governing magazine reported.

NCPPP

By Editor

September 24, 2015




New Guidance Aims to Speed Up Approval of Federally Funded Infrastructure Projects.

New and updated guidance has been published to help federal agencies expedite the permitting and environmental review of federally funded infrastructure projects.

The new guidance consists of an enhanced permitting dashboard system, along with the establishment of metrics for agencies to follow in conducting permitting and environmental review, and the first update in nearly three decades of the environmental review handbook, the “Red Book.”

The Federal Infrastructure Permitting Dashboard was launched in 2011 to track 52 high-priority projects’ permitting and environmental review progress with the goal of improving multi-agency coordination. Agencies will now be required to use this tool to set specific reportable permitting and review schedules and milestones for projects that meet specific criteria.

In October, the 11 federal agencies involved in permitting, reviewing, funding and developing infrastructure projects will start identifying new ones that are expected to undergo lengthy and complex permitting and review processes, for which milestones and coordinated schedules will be posted within 90 days. These types of projects include major transit and airport projects, capital improvements and major utility, energy or water projects.

The newly revised Synchronizing Environmental Review for Transportation and Other Infrastructure Projects handbook (Red Book) contains practical, authentic techniques, models and assistance agencies can use to coordinate and synchronize environmental reviews, permits and decisions that affect the siting and building infrastructure projects, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) said in a press release. These sets of guidance are designed to help agencies turn best practices “into common practices” that have already been followed to accelerate the environmental review and permitting of more than 50 infrastructure projects Examples of such practices include “running different reviews concurrently rather than sequentially and using the Administration’s online dashboard to promote accountability for a shared schedule.”

Following such “common sense” practices has led to the expedited permitting of more than half of those projects, including New York’s Tappan Zee bridge replacement, which took just a year and a half, USDOT said.

NCPPP

By Editor

September 24, 2015




Introducing the Fitch Revenue Sensitivity Tool for Public Finance.

Read the report.




Muni Investors Face Pension Woes.

The longer the Fed keeps rates low, the worse some city and state pension problems may be. The signals from Detroit and Atlantic City.

There are many reasons to like municipal bonds. They’ve held up well amid recent market volatility, and at longer maturities they yield more than similarly rated Treasuries—much more on an after-tax basis. Tax-equivalent yields for A-rated 10-year munis are around 4%, compared with just 2.2% for the benchmark Treasury.

Yellen & Co. keep promising to raise rates, but investors who hold munis to maturity don’t have to worry about falling prices due to interest-rate risk. They do, however, have to worry about credit risk.

Underfunded state and city pension plans are turning into a bigger headache for muni investors. Pension accounting standards are getting tougher, and rating agencies seem more aggressive about downgrades. Lower investment returns this year for pensions will make funding woes look worse. States are trying to bring funding in line with obligations, but changing benefits to current and former employees have been met with stiff legal challenges.

“Investors should be concerned,” says Vikram Rai, Citigroup’s municipal strategist. “It’s a chronic problem for many cities and states, and it’s going to take a long time to fix. But rating agencies seem to want a quick fix, which is just not possible.”

IF THE FED LEAVES RATES lower for longer, pension-fund growth projections will be harder to meet. Veteran bond investor Bill Gross of Janus Capital urged the Fed to raise rates in his October outlook, writing, “Do central bankers not observe that Detroit, Puerto Rico, and soon Chicago, Illinois cannot meet their promised liabilities?”

Ironically, the pension-funding picture is actually improving for most states, a new report from Loop Capital finds. But the troubled states have grown worse. Loop found the aggregate nationwide funded level dipped slightly from 73.1% to 72.6% in the past year. States including Illinois, Alaska, Kentucky, and Connecticut are funded near 50%. New Jersey is at 39%, finds Loop. “There’s been a divergence,” says Chris Mier, managing director at Loop Capital. “The gap between the best and worst states is widening.”

In the past week, New Jersey’s foundering gambling capital, Atlantic City, deferred pension payments to balance its budget. Chicago is proposing tax hikes to get out of a pension-funding nightmare that started last spring when the Illinois Supreme Court disallowed earlier pension reforms and Moody’s downgraded its debt to junk.

Chicago shows the danger of a downgrade is real. Not only do bonds fall in value, but a downgrade can trigger escalating financial woes. Short-term debt may come immediately due, and institutional holders may be obligated to sell.

In the worst case, downgrades can lead to bankruptcy, still quite rare for municipalities. But in Detroit, bondholders were required by the court to share the pain, taking haircuts on their debt in restructuring—even in general-obligation bonds, which were once considered inviolable. “Detroit set a dangerous precedent,” says Hugh McGuirk, who heads T. Rowe Price’s muni-bond team. One lesson: “You don’t want to be in lower-quality GOs if this comes to a head,” he says. He prefers revenue bonds that fund airports and hospitals. Generally, their employees have fully funded 401(k) plans instead of pensions.

Choosing a professionally managed mutual fund is one way to handle pension-related risks. At Columbia Threadneedle, analyst Matthew Stephan monitors accounting changes being implemented by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board this year. New guidelines will probably make states underfunding their pensions look worse, but it varies a lot, he says.

For those individuals who want to do their own digging into state finances, the Electronic Municipal Market Access Website (www.emma.msrb.org) is a good place to start.

BARRON’S

By AMEY STONE

Updated Sept. 26, 2015 2:15 a.m. ET




S&P: Report Explains Ratings Approach On Distressed Local Government Credits.

CHARLOTTESVILLE (Standard & Poor’s) Sept. 24, 2015—Although rating trends in the U.S. local government sector are positive overall, there have been several recent situations where borrowers wound up in fiscal stress. From Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ perspective, municipal bankruptcies and previous distress scenarios are opportunities to help inform our current analysis of distressed issuers with respect to the incentives to pay certain obligations, according to a report published today.

“Our view is that the small number of bankruptcies and credits in distress we have seen do not enable us to predict conclusively which obligations will or will not be impaired in bankruptcy,” said credit analyst Lisa Schroeer. “There are, however, several factors we believe can inform our view and ratings regarding the likelihood of payment on specific obligations for distressed credits. Our local government ratings do not reflect our assessment of expected recovery post-bankruptcy. Our ratings instead reflect our assessment of whether the issuer will pay the bonds in full and on time.””

In particular, in distressed situations, Standard & Poor’s draws on several analytical factors, including the legal structure of the borrower’s debt; the “comparables” (i.e., similar situations that we have seen); and the revenue pledge.

“As we evaluate these distressed credits, examples inform our analysis when assessing the incentives to pay for distressed issuers. Legal structure, political incentives, additional pledge revenues, and comparable situations all factor into our analysis,” said Ms. Schroeer. “When looking at our distressed issuers, our analysis incorporates historic actions while taking into account the unique credit profile of each issuer.”

The report is titled, “Incentive to Pay: How Recent Bankruptcies Inform Analysis Of Distressed Local Government Credits,” published today.”

Under Standard & Poor’s policies, only a Rating Committee can determine a Credit Rating Action (including a Credit Rating change, affirmation or withdrawal, Rating Outlook change, or CreditWatch action). This commentary and its subject matter have not been the subject of Rating Committee action and should not be interpreted as a change to, or affirmation of, a Credit Rating or Rating Outlook.

The report is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.globalcreditportal.com and at www.spcapitaliq.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-7280 or sending an e-mail to [email protected].

Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor’s public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Members of the media may request a copy of this
report by contacting the media representative provided.

Primary Credit Analyst: Lisa R Schroeer, Charlottesville (1) 434-220-0892;
[email protected]

Secondary Contacts: Horacio G Aldrete-Sanchez, Dallas (1) 214-871-1426;
[email protected]

Jane H Ridley, Chicago (1) 312-233-7012;
[email protected]

Matthew T Reining, New York (1) 415-371-5044;
[email protected]




Incentive To Pay: How Recent Bankruptcies Inform Analysis Of Distressed Local Government Credits.

Though rating trends are overwhelmingly upward across all municipal sectors (see “U.S. Public Finance Positive Ratings Streak Reaches 14-Year High,” Sept. 2, 2015) Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has also seen borrowers like Atlantic City, N.J.; Wayne County, Mich.; and, most recently, Hillview, Ky., trying to work through fiscal stress. Though comprising only a very small percent of overall local government ratings, distressed credits bring into play analytical considerations that aren’t usually a factor in this overall strong sector.

Often the hallmark of extremely distressed credits is concern regarding sufficient liquidity, whereby issuers may face a decision on who to pay: Peter or Paul (or Jane or Jenny, for that matter). While the framework of our local government criteria applies to all of our local government ratings, for distressed credits, where rating caps are often invoked, we address the questions regarding management’s incentives to pay under strain. This report will focus on the somewhat unique analytical considerations we believe play into this subset of issuers.

Overview

Continue reading.

24-Sep-2015




Rating Correlations For U.S. Local Governments: Proximity Doesn't Always Matter.

When Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services evaluates a U.S. local government’s general obligation (GO) credit quality, it does so from a holistic point of view, looking at all the features it thinks could influence credit quality. They include financial performance, management, and debt burden and other long-term obligations, as well as the area’s economy. Likewise, when a local government requests a rating on a series of revenue bonds (such as a water or sewer system), we review the system, its strengths, and challenges.

For both GO and revenue ratings, the local economy is an important factor in our analysis. This frequently includes the relative health of other municipalities that surround or overlap the issuer, and who often share similar demographic trends. The financial and economic health of these other governments helps inform our understanding of the local economy, be the influence good or bad. In some instances where a direct impact exists–such as a weak state that delays payments of necessary operating dollars to local governments because of its own financial pressures or different municipal entities with shared financial resources such as pooled cash–it can have credit implications.

However, in instances where–save geographic location–no direct link exists between different issuers and/or separate security pledges within one issuer, we don’t automatically cap ratings due to the proximity of a struggling municipality or strained internal operations, particularly if the issuers are legally unrelated.

Overview

Continue reading.

24-Sep-2015




S&P: U.S. Public-Private Partnerships Encounter New Road Bumps as Political Appetite For The Projects Waxes And Wanes

After more than a year of positive momentum in public-private partnerships (P3) for U.S. infrastructure projects, shifting political winds are disrupting some plans for P3s, even as it becomes clearer that increased spending is needed to build and repair the country’s roads, bridges, and tunnels. Only a handful of states have used P3s in a significant way, with lawmakers in many states becoming wary of entering into such long-term contractual arrangements to finance, build, operate, and maintain infrastructure assets. In many cases, decision-makers are focused on short-term benefits–such as lower initial borrowing costs associated with tax-exempt financing and the traditional design-bid-build procurement route than the P3 route that has, particularly for larger, complex deals, the longer-term benefits of transferring performance…

The full report is available for purchase here.

Sep. 9, 2015




What Investors Can Learn From Puerto Rico's Bond Default.

Hint: It can happen again.

There was a point in time when buying Puerto Rico’s municipal debt seemed like a good idea. Enticed by bonds offering relatively high yields and exemption from federal, state, and local taxes, many U.S. investors jumped at the chance to buy up the commonwealth’s debt. But then things started going sour in Puerto Rico, culminating in the ultimate no-no on the part of any municipality: a default.

That’s right: After periods of coming extremely close, Puerto Rico finally defaulted on its municipal debt, paying just $628,000 of the $58 million it was supposed to dish out to bondholders in early August. According to Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla, the island’s $72 billion in public debt simply isn’t payable, and the general economic outlook is bleak. In fact, he has even gone so far as to say that Puerto Rico’s economy is in a “death spiral.” Talk about discouraging.

How we got here

In 2006, after Puerto Rico lost many of the federal tax advantages that attracted U.S. companies to the island, loads of businesses jumped ship, and things have gone downhill ever since. Unemployment is at 12% in Puerto Rico — more than double the average rate in the U.S. Residents, in turn, are saying adios to the island and seeking work on the mainland.

For years, Puerto Rico’s municipal bonds have been trading well below par, and its credit rating is currently hovering in junk territory. The commonwealth has more debt than any U.S. state aside from California and New York, which both have significantly larger populations. During the past 10 years, the island has been forced to borrow at high rates and double its debt simply to stay operational.

What this means for muni bonds

A Puerto Rico debt restructuring would be the largest ever in the $3.7 trillion municipal-bond market. Because Puerto Rico is a commonwealth, not a U.S. city or state, it cannot, by law, file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. It also, as the governor has so eloquently stated, cannot pay its debts, which means that if there is indeed a restructuring, it won’t be the neat, orderly type we’re all used to.

Rather, we’re more likely to see a series of lawsuits brought by investors clamoring for their money. It’s good news if you’re a lawyer, but if you’re a Puerto Rico bondholder, not so much. Furthermore, a restructuring that proves remarkably unfavorable to bondholders could leave a bitter taste in investors’ mouths, which could, in turn, impact the municipal bond market as a whole.

What we’ve learned

The silver lining in all of this — and you really have to want to see it — is that individual investors are getting a nice little crash course on what to do differently the next time around. For starters, don’t rely on the fact that municipal bonds boast historically low default rates. Though they are rare, we’ve seen more defaults happen in recent years. Remember Detroit, for example.

Secondly, in situations like the one Puerto Rico faces, don’t count on a bailout. The whole “too big to fail” theory doesn’t seem to be working thus far. In fact, Puerto Rico has been petitioning incessantly for Chapter 9 eligibility, only to have its pleas rejected.

Here’s another takeaway: If you’re going to tie up your money in long-term municipal bonds, you may want to choose issues that are insured. Most of Puerto Rico’s debt does not fall into this category.

Furthermore, don’t take comfort in the mistakes of the masses. Some investors chose not to sell their positions in Puerto Rico several years ago — before things got really ugly — because they assumed the hedge funds that owned large chunks of Puerto Rico’s debt would either sue or demand favorable treatment for bonds in the event of a restructuring. But favorable treatment only goes so far when there’s no money to go around. Holders of Puerto Rico’s bonds are potentially looking at just $0.60 on the dollar following a restructuring.

Finally, pay attention to your investments. Many holders of Puerto Rico bonds, to this day, are unaware that these bonds are taking up valuable real estate in their investment portfolios. More than 20% of American bond funds own Puerto Rico’s debt, and they could be in for an unpleasant surprise depending on how much of a haircut bondholders take in whatever slapdash restructuring the island manages to pull off.

Right now, we don’t know what the future will hold for Puerto Rico or its bondholders. If you’re invested in the island’s debt, however, it’s fair to assume that you’re in for a pretty rocky ride.

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Sep 17, 2015 at 7:07AM




DUDE, WHERE'S MY BOND? I’m Ashton Kutcher and I’m Here to Help.

I’m Ashton Kutcher. You might remember me from movies like the one where I couldn’t find my car because I was too high and shows like the one where I replaced Charlie Sheen because he was too high, as well as marriages like, “Demi, are you too high?” Today I’m here to fix public finance across the United States.

I know what you’re thinking: What does this Ashton Kutcher character know about municipal bonds? It may surprise you that the answer is: obviously, a fuckton.

I fly over highways all the time and think, man that highway looks like it sucks, what with the crummy asphalt and the having to drive and the needing to remember where your car is in the first place. I also walk by public sewers once in awhile when I’m in Los Angeles or Ibiza and think, could we organize, like, an epic sewer party down there? Probably not! Because the sewer is dirty and broken. Thanks, public finance.

Then I think longer term, about my planned space trip and I get a little bleary eyed. Or is it teary eyed? Whatever. I get water eyes.

That’s because I think to myself: what happens when the government has to fund not only all these roads and sewers but SPACE HIGHWAYS?! Do I want my child dying in a space highway accident because the space authority didn’t have enough funding??? I’m not 100% sure, but probably not.

The answer to all of this is Neighborly.

Neighborly isn’t about all that Wall Street mumbo jumbo when it comes to financing crap you don’t want to pay for. It’s about neighbors! Neighbors paying for each other in a neighborly way in their neighborhoods. (As well as maybe the occasional sewer party together? Seriously, let’s do this.)

Have you ever looked at a broken stoplight and said to yourself, I wish I could just pay a startup to allow me to invest in a bond whose proceeds may or may not be used to fix that broken stoplight? I sure haven’t! But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have that opportunity—and Neighborly is it.

At this point you might be wondering two things: why can’t governments fund themselves without Neighborly, and what, exactly, does Neighborly do? I’ll answer these questions in two parts, unless I get distracted.

First: a lot of people think municipalities can’t afford to fix their roads and sewers and space highways because 1) unemployment hurt tax revenue 2) a downturn in spending hurt tax revenue 3) a downturn in corporate income hurt tax revenue 4) local governments spent a lot of money on boneheaded projects 5) local governments entered boneheaded financing arrangements or 6) political nonsense in Washington with “fiscal cliffs” and “government shutdowns” hurt federal support of state and local budgets.

To all these ideas, I say: Pfft, whatever mom, you’re not my boss.

The real reason for whatever we’re talking about is that neighbors can’t put neighbor money into a neighbor pot to support the neighborhood. It’s sort of like when you put your keys into a “designated driver” bowl at a house party and the lady who owns the house won’t let you leave with no pants on carrying a half-full bottle of Jack.

Anyway, the key bowl is a great idea for a public-finance startup because it can make money appealing to disillusioned young Americans who hate Wall Street, and want to be more directly involved in their local governments, without having to attend community board meetings. At least some guy told me that. Mainly, it’s a great way for me to earn money doing the same thing Wall Street does, except cooler, with a smiley face: =:o]

I believe your second question was about how Neighborly works, or about how I manage to be so sexy and have amazing skin well into my 30s. The sexy-skin question was inappropriate—if omnirelevant. I’d answer the other one, except math is hard, and our “How It Works” section on Neighborly’s web site doesn’t offer much in the way of how it works.

However! It does include truisms such as “Investing in cities is hard.” (I know, rite?) Besides that, I would suggest looking at the cartoons of a woman with hearts next to her head, as well as a guy surrounded by pine trees and wind turbines. All of this indicates that whatever we’re doing is really “on fleek,” as the kids say—and I have better skin than they do.

FUSION

by Lauren Tara LaCapra

September 16, 2015 10:53 a.m.




Neighborly Raises $5.5M from Joe Lonsdale’s Formation 8, Ashton Kutcher to Transform the Municipal Debt Market.

For American cities that need to raise millions or billions of dollars to finance projects from local parks to suspension bridges, the fractal-like complexity of global financial markets means that funding is becoming ever more opaque and distant from the real-world work it supports.

A startup called Neighborly is hoping to narrow that gap with a $5.5 million round of funding from Joe Lonsdale’s Formation 8 and Ashton Kutcher’s Sound Ventures. An earlier incarnation of the product was about crowdfunding civic projects, kind of like a Kickstarter for your neighborhood.

That was an important niche, but large-scale and impactful projects require on the order of hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. For instance, the city of San Francisco is asking voters to pass a $300 million affordable housing bond this November amid a major shortage, and the regional transit system, BART, has more than $9 billion in maintenance needs through the next decade.

So Neighborly is shifting back to its original idea, which was to create a platform for retail investors to invest in municipal debt that actually affects where they live. It’s an enormous market with a size of roughly $3.7 trillion.

The company’s founder Jase Wilson grew up in a broken home in a poverty-stricken factory and farm town in the Midwest. But he had access to decent parks and a strong-willed mother, which helped him escape tough situations at home. Later on in college, he studied both engineering and urban planning and ended up working in civic software for city governments for about a decade.

Several years into the job, Wilson started getting to know municipal bond traders, who were exchanging and issuing the debt that cities need to fund projects. A trader walked Wilson through underwriting and compliance, and then over to a fax machine with stacks of papers and contracts. The trader explained to Wilson that just by switching from corporate to municipal debt, he could double his income without doing any extra work. This was because public city governments ended up with extra layers of fees throughout all the steps of municipal debt issuance that corporate issuers were more rigorous about holding accountable.

“I thought — why isn’t there an AngelList for this?” Wilson said, adding that 2.2 percent of a cities’ total debt issuance goes toward the cost of borrowing on top of interest. On top of that, city governments can end up on the bad side of a deal that they are unable to evaluate as well as investment banks, which see deals day after day.

After the last financial crisis, Oakland got in a tussle with Goldman Sachs on an old interest-rate swaps deal that would have protected them if interest rates rose. Instead, interest rates fell after the housing market crashed, and the city ended up on the hook for $4 million in annual interest payments to the bank.

“There are a lot of inefficiencies that software can solve in the market as it operates today,” he said. “The market fundamentally fails to connect people our age with the debt that goes toward funding projects in their neighborhoods.”

On Neighborly, you can create a personal profile, listing out how much you want to invest and the kind of return and risk you’d want to assume. Then you can get notifications about upcoming sales and issuances. Neighborly can also use machine learning techniques to evaluate the risk of municipal bonds in addition to the analysts and rating agencies an investor would normally use. On the city side, government officials can store and manage all their documentation, cutting out legal and advisor work.

The hope is that if this behavior scales, Millennial retail investors buying municipal debt could drive down borrowing costs for projects in their own backyards. It could also crowd out the need for investment banks to package and distribute municipal debt to other investors — a process where they end up taking an estimated $60 billion cut off municipal issuance.

He added, “We are inheriting debt from the generation before us, and then we are going to be at the helm of this market that we have zero personal connection with.”

TechCrunch

Posted Sep 15, 2015 by Kim-Mai Cutler (@kimmaicutler)




S&P: Federal Fiscal Policy Discord Could Undermine the Economic and Budgetary Environment for States.

After a roughly two-year reprieve, U.S. state governments need to brace for the possibility of another federal government shutdown, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services believes. In addition, federal spending caps are scheduled to ratchet down again beginning in federal fiscal year 2016 (October 1). As we understand it, avoiding a shutdown may require that Congress and the President reach agreement on changes to the spending caps, no easy task given their stated policy positions. It’s not a foregone conclusion, but we believe the state sector may be in for another episode of tumultuous federal fiscal negotiations, including the possibility of a short-term federal government shutdown.

In our view, most states can likely maintain their current rating levels with the slower economic growth rates that would result from a temporary shutdown. Appropriations for certain major federal grants to states are already in place, partially shielding state budgets from the immediate fiscal disruption that a short term federal shutdown would cause. However, from a macroeconomic standpoint, insofar as a shutdown translates to slower revenue growth or higher demand for state services, state fiscal margins could be narrower than presently forecasted. In our view, a shutdown could therefore absorb a portion of the states’ budgetary capacity that would otherwise be available in the event of unanticipated economic softening. This could leave states more vulnerable to downside pressure spilling over from a slowdown in the Chinese economy or elsewhere.

Continue reading.

14-Sep-2015




How Standard & Poor's Treats Public-Private Partnerships in U.S. State and Local Government Debt Analysis.

Although infrastructure needs in the U.S. — and worldwide -– are very high, in our view, the governments in many developed nations have cut back on infrastructure spending, in large part, we believe, because of budgetary concerns. In the U.S., government spending on projects, as a percentage of GDP, has dropped to a two-decade low of about 1.7%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (See “U.S. Infrastructure Investment: A Chance To Reap More Than We Sow,” published May 5, 2014, on RatingsDirect.) This limited infrastructure funding comes when the country’s infrastructure has repeatedly received a near-failing grade from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) in the comprehensive assessment it issues every four years. The low grade reflects the enormous amount of capital needs, from bridges to levees. For example, according to ASCE, one in nine bridges in the U.S. is structurally deficient, and to eliminate the backlog of repairs or build replacements by 2028, local, state, and federal spending would have to increase by $8 billion per year.

As U.S. state and local governments look for alternative ways of delivering large infrastructure projects, interest has grown in using public-private partnerships (P3s), a risk-sharing method that governments have used globally for many types of infrastructure.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services believes it will be useful to provide additional context about its views on P3s and to address how it incorporates P3 payment obligations into its debt statement analysis for U.S. state and local governments.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are public-private partnerships?

A P3 is a risk-sharing partnership–consisting of a government and a private business–that builds, finances, and operates an infrastructure project. In a P3, the roles and responsibilities of both the private-sector and government participants are typically specified in a contract, frequently referred to as a concession agreement. Under the concession agreement, the private entity is contractually obligated to deliver a service, typically to design, build, finance, operate, and maintain an asset for a specified fixed period, defined as the length of the concession. Concession periods of 30 to 40 years are common, but some are longer. These projects are arranged as either availability- or volume-based projects. For volume-based projects, the government typically receives an upfront payment in exchange for allowing the private entity to operate and collect the project revenues over the contract term. For availability-based projects, the government makes construction milestone payments and availability payments to support the new asset. In many, but not all cases, toll revenues, gas taxes, or appropriations back the government’s availability payment commitment. Because of the issuance structure, the P3 debt issuances are often free from the constraints of a government’s debt affordability models. We evaluate the nature of a government’s obligation under the P3 agreements in determining whether we consider the obligation to be part of a government’s tax-supported debt.

How prevalent is the use of P3s in the U.S.?

Although other countries have used P3s more widely, in the U.S. their use has been more recent and somewhat limited. However, interest in the P3 approach is growing in the U.S., and several states are developing programs. California, Florida, Indiana, Texas, and Virginia have participated in P3s. Currently, 33 states have authorized P3s, and others such as New York, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are developing new P3 programs. The U.S. projects have primarily focused on transportation, such as roads, toll lanes, and transit projects. However, the Long Beach Courthouse in California is an example of a social infrastructure P3 project, and other states currently active in transportation P3 projects are also considering approving legislation allowing social infrastructure P3s. We expect that the states with established P3 programs will continue to use P3 financing. In our view, the large size and complexity of the projects and the concession agreements, as well as the lack of uniformity in the terms of these agreements–no two P3s are alike–have all created high start-up costs and acted as a barrier to greater adoption of this model. This is particularly true when start-up process span different administrations, whose interest in P3s may vary. In addition, in the U.S. the municipal bond market has provided a readily available low-cost financing mechanism with long amortizations that are beneficial to many infrastructure financings, which has also limited the use of P3 financings in the U.S. In our opinion, recent problems regarding the Virginia Route 460 project, the Indiana Toll Road bankruptcy, and the federal judge’s ruling on the Illiana Corridor project, regardless of these projects’ ultimate outcome, might have created some headwinds for P3s in states that are unfamiliar or inexperienced with the P3 model. In our view, a more intrinsic barrier could be that despite a free market orientation in the U.S., governments don’t have an evolved culture of public-sector agencies handing over these functions to the private sector. Whether this is because of political accountability, engrained views of the role of government, or other reasons is uncertain; however, we believe that at least in the near term, support for these projects will be mixed. (See “U.S. Public-Private Partnerships Encounter New Road Bumps As Political Appetite For The Projects Waxes And Wanes,” published Sept. 9, 2015.)

How do the risks transferred differ from volume-based to availability-based P3s?

A P3 structure’s benefits are that it includes some level of private investment and that there is, typically, a transfer of construction and/or operating risk to the private party. The private investment typically ranges from about 10% of total project cost for availability-based projects to about 30% in volume-based projects. In volume-based transactions, usage or volume risk, hence the name, is transferred to the private entity. For these, the government typically receives an up-front payment and/or payments over time in exchange for allowing the private entity to operate and collect the project revenues over the contract term. Funding usually comes largely directly from user fees or tolls and the private sector assumes most of the operating and volume risks, with very limited recourse to the government in case of lower-than-expected usage. Although in most cases toll road P3s are structured as volume-based projects, there are instances where concerns over the sufficiency of toll revenues to cover payment obligations could lead a government to use an availability-based model. For availability-based projects, the government typically transfers the construction and operating risks, but retains the risk of usage. In other words, the government’s annual payments are for making the facility available for use, regardless of the actual usage (volume) or the amount of revenues derived from the project, if any.

How Does Standard & Poor’s treat U.S. state and local governments’ P3 payment obligations?

We might treat the government’s P3 obligation as debt, as a contingent liability, or neither. The key determinants are the source of revenue to pay the P3 obligation and whether we consider the obligation self-supporting. Once we’ve determined to include all or a portion of the obligation as debt, we size the debt statement impact based on the type of payments (such as milestone, availability) and the net present value of the payments.

If we consider the revenue stream used to repay the obligation to be tax-backed revenue, then we’ll include the P3 obligation as tax-supported debt, subject to adjustments mentioned below. Tax-backed revenues include tax revenues, appropriations, and special taxes. If the security for repayment is from a true enterprise operation or from a nontax-supported source, such as toll revenues or grant anticipation revenue bonds paid solely from dedicated federal funding, then we won’t include it as tax-supported debt or contingent liability.

Does Standard & Poor’s consider P3 availability payments to be debt-like?

While a unique structure, P3 availability payments have many features that make them debt-like. Under an availability payment model, the government enters into a long-term contract or obligation to pay. In most cases, in addition to being long term, these payment obligations are fixed commitments with penalties, or termination payments, if the agreement ends. Often, the government pays these obligations from the same revenue sources as more traditional tax-exempt municipal debt. Furthermore, similar to debt, these payments fund capital improvements or meet other government purposes. Finally, generally, the sponsoring government owns the asset.

Does Standard & Poor’s factor in self-support for P3 obligations?

In some cases, in addition to tax-backed revenues, pledges of nontax revenues, such as toll revenues, will support the P3 payment obligation. In these cases, we’ll determine if these nontax revenues provide partial or self-support of the payment obligation and adjust the size of the obligation to include in our debt calculations. Our self-support analysis is based on historical coverage (see “Debt Statement Analysis”published Aug. 22, 2006), but we could adjust our view of self-support if we expect future coverage to be lower than historical.

Does Standard & Poor’s make any adjustment to the availability payment obligations when including them as debt?

In deciding how much debt to include in debt statements, we evaluate milestone and availability payment obligations separately. Milestone payments are made in recognition of reaching a construction milestone and, in most cases, occur before the asset is available for use. Absent some form of self-support in the P3, we treat milestone payments as debt and add them at the P3’s financial close. Availability payments include a fixed portion that represents both the capital portion of project-related debt issued by the partnership and equity partner’s contribution and a variable portion that represents lifecycle operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses. In our view, adding the string of total future annual payments represents a more comprehensive estimate of a government’s true obligation over the life of a project. However, because we view O&M costs for these projects as operating costs and to ensure equal treatment with other tax-backed debt, where a breakdown is available, we separate the O&M cost from the other components of the availability payment. We add availability payments as a debt-like obligation on delivery of the asset.

Because milestone and availability payments include either an interest component (for debt issued) or a return on investment (on the equity contribution), before adding the obligations to our debt statements, we discount the future payments to arrive at a net present value of the principal component of the P3 payment. Given that P3 projects are typically done in lieu of a traditional debt financing for a public entity, we estimate a discount rate that is representative of a public entity’s cost of capital based on its rating category and length of the P3 contract. We would generally use Municipal Market Data or a similar data source to estimate the discount rate.

Under Standard & Poor’s policies, only a Rating Committee can determine a Credit Rating Action (including a Credit Rating change, affirmation or withdrawal, Rating Outlook change, or CreditWatch action). This commentary and its subject matter have not been the subject of Rating Committee action and should not be interpreted as a change to, or affirmation of, a Credit Rating or Rating Outlook.

17-Sep-2015

Primary Credit Analyst: John A Sugden, New York (1) 212-438-1678;
[email protected]

Secondary Contacts: Gabriel J Petek, CFA, San Francisco (1) 415-371-5042;
[email protected]

Robin L Prunty, New York (1) 212-438-2081;
[email protected]

Todd R Spence, Dallas (1) 214-871-1424;
[email protected]




Apples are Nice but Pensions are Better.

Two new research briefs this week fuel the argument that public pensions are only practical for the small portion of workers who stick around in one place for their whole career. Nationally, fewer workers, particularly Millennials, are staying with a company for most of their careers. The research was conducted by TeacherPensions.org, Bellwether Education Partners and the Urban Institute and looks at how current pension plans in all 50 states serve short- and medium-term working teachers.

While it’s a common assumption that public-sector teachers trade lower salaries for higher job security and more generous benefits, the briefs argue that trade only works well for the small minority of teachers who actually stick around until retirement. “Most teachers get the worst of both worlds — they earn lower salaries while they work and they forfeit retirement savings when they leave,” the researchers said.

The first brief, Hidden Penalties, looks at short-term workers, or those who don’t stay long enough to qualify for any pension. About half of all new teachers fall into this group and they forfeit thousands of dollars their employer contributed on their behalf.

The second brief, Negative Returns, looks at medium- and longer-term teachers. It found that because of the back-loaded nature of pensions benefits (meaning they ramp up in the final years of service), a teacher in the median state must serve 25 years before qualifying for a pension worth more than their own contributions. “Recent pension reforms, focused mainly on cutting costs, generally make this situation worse and force new teachers to work even longer before they benefit from their pension plans,” the brief said.

GOVERNING.COM

BY LIZ FARMER | SEPTEMBER 18, 2015




Muni Debt Could Be a Bond Market Haven After Fed Hikes.

If the last time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates is any guide, U.S. state and local government bonds will be a refuge for investors once policy makers bring the era of nearly free money to a close.

When the central bank began tightening monetary policy in 2004, the $3.6 trillion market returned 5.5 percent, about 2 percentage points more than Treasuries, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Indexes. As the increases continued over the next two years, municipals kept outperforming.

Standish Mellon Asset Management Co., Neuberger Berman and Citigroup Inc. are among the firms saying municipal debt is poised for another round of standout returns if the Fed starts raising interest rates as soon as Thursday. That’s because the securities are owned largely by buy-and-hold investors looking for steady tax-exempt income, which buffers them from the volatility elsewhere in financial markets. Higher yields tend to make the bonds even more attractive to those buyers.

“On a relative basis, munis should perform well,” said Christine Todd, president of Boston-based Standish, which has $27 billion of munis under management. “Whether you’re a taxable investor or not, you’re better off in munis.”

The securities aren’t immune to losses, and the market trailed Treasuries as the Fed boosted rates during the 1990s. Yet a slide in prices this year, which pushed up 10-year yields by a half percentage point since February, may protect the market if the central bank moves slowly to avoid derailing the economic recovery, analysts said. It’s held its benchmark overnight lending rate near zero since late 2008.

“Whether they do it September or December, they’re going to then take a step back and and watch and really make sure they haven’t moved too soon and haven’t done anything to throw this economy off its moorings,” said James Iselin, head of the municipal fixed income team in New York at Neuberger Berman, which oversees about $9.3 billion of munis. “That is somewhat supportive.”

State and local debt is relatively cheap by one measure: 10-year munis yield 2.28 percent, about the same as similar U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yields on munis have averaged 97 percent of Treasuries over the past decade because, unlike U.S. debt, the income they generate is exempt from the federal income tax.

The securities have outperformed other investments amid speculation about when the Fed will act. Munis have returned 0.8 percent this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes, almost twice as much as Treasuries. U.S. corporate bonds have lost 0.8 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is down by almost 4 percent.

Vikram Rai, head of municipal strategy in New York at Citigroup, said in an Aug. 31 report that munis maturing in 10 years or longer may rally if the Fed raises rates Thursday, given that yields have already climbed in anticipation. A year after the Fed’s first increase in 2004, he said, top-rated 10-year yields declined by 0.56 percentage point and the 30-year slid 0.8 percentage point.

“Fed actions are perversely bullish for long-dated bonds,” Rai wrote.

Investors may also seek protection from turmoil in equity and commodity markets. That would draw cash into the market, which continued to pull in funds from individual investors after interest rates began rising in 2004, according to Fed figures.

“Within fixed income, municipals continue to offer less volatility and the unique advantages of tax-free income,” New York-based BlackRock Inc. analysts led by Peter Hayes wrote in a report Monday.

Bloomberg News

by Romy Varghese

September 15, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on September 16, 2015 — 6:01 AM PDT




Drivers Decry Rise of Toll Lanes as Texas's LBJ Expressway Opens.

The 13 miles of rebuilt Interstate 635 in North Dallas offer something for everyone: express lanes for those who want to pay to bypass traffic, toll-free lanes for those who don’t, no maintenance costs for the state and, officials hope, less congestion.

For investors in $615 million of private activity bonds sold for part of the $2.7 billion cost of the highway, also known as LBJ after former President Lyndon B. Johnson, all that matters is whether enough drivers use the express lanes to pay principal and interest coming through 2040. The road, which re-opened last week, is one of a handful in the country that charges tolls that adjust based on traffic volume, assuring those willing to pay as much as $9 during peak times to move quickly on a road that was once a parking lot at rush hour.

“The biggest risk from our perspective is the amount of traffic it will carry,” said Robert Amodeo, head of municipals for Western Asset Management Co., which has $452.5 billion under management, including LBJ bonds. “How many cars are going to jump on the road during peak pricing?”

The opening, which came ahead of schedule and below budget, will test a partnership between government and the private sector. The project only cost the state $496 million from gas tax collections, allowing it to improve traffic flow in a congested corridor nearly a decade earlier that it would have otherwise. But the tolling has sparked anger by some residents tired of seeing roads that were once free now have tolls.

“It’s offensive to make us pay to use roads that are being built with our tax dollars,” said Terri Hall, founder of Texans Uniting for Reform and Freedom, in San Antonio, which opposes new toll roads. “They’re letting a private company decide who gets to travel fast and who doesn’t.”

The new highway has four free lanes, as it had previously, in each direction, but in its new configuration it has two or three tolled express lanes each way. It’s those lanes that will pay back investors, cover maintenance costs and, officials said, reduce congestion for drivers who don’t want to use the tolled lanes.

The highway, part of a loop around Dallas, cuts a swath across the top of the city, linking businesses such as Texas Instruments Inc. and Brinker International Inc., parent of Chilli’s Bar & Grill, the Galleria Dallas and some of the city’s wealthiest neighborhoods. The highway is a crossroads for people heading to Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport and downtown.

Equity Investors

“Dynamic pricing gives users a choice of paying extra to cruise through or not pay,” said Michael Wilson, director of transportation for the North Central Texas Council of Governments. “The LBJ model is being looked at as the way to go because there isn’t enough money to build all the roads needed.”

The company that has been rebuilding the highway and will operate and maintain it is LBJ Infrastructure Group LLC, owned by the private-equity investors: Cintra Infraestructuras S.A., Meridiam Infrastructure Finance S.à.r.l. and the Dallas Police and Fire Pension System. The equity investors put $665 million into the deal. The rest of the financing comes from a $850 million Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act loan from the Federal Highway Administration.

The tolls will generate revenue to repay bond holders, the federal loan and the private equity investors over the 52-year life of the agreement.

Failed Projects

Sometimes public-private projects don’t work out so well. For many failed highway projects, including some privatized toll roads, the cause is a lack of traffic. ITR Concession Co., operator of the Indiana Toll Road, sought to reorganize in bankruptcy last year after dwindling traffic undermined its $3.8 billion bet on a 75-year lease of the road. South Bay Expressway, a 10-mile toll road near San Diego, and the 16-mile Southern Connector in Greenville County, South Carolina, each filed for bankruptcy in 2010 after experiencing low traffic.

So far during construction of LBJ, the bonds have performed well, said Bill Delahunty, Boston-base director of municipal research for Eaton Vance Management, which also owns the bonds. Initially priced in 2010 with tax-exempt yields of more than 7 percent, the series maturing in 2040 traded Sept. 15 at 17 percent over par. The bonds were initially priced at almost 3 cents under par.

Cash Flow

“This has been an absolute home run so far,” said Amodeo.

Over the life of the securities, the net cash flow available for payments on the bonds and the federal loan, after other expenses, is projected to increase to about $624 million in 2040 from an estimated $96 million in 2016, according to bond documents. Traffic is expected to increase 36.7 percent in that period, according to feasibly study by Arup North America Ltd.

Since the early 1990s and until construction began, most segments of the highway have carried more than 200,000 cars per day through North Dallas, according to data contained in bond documents.

“This is a very congested area,” said Delahunty. “The Dallas-Fort Worth area is doing very well from a demographic standpoint.”

Bloomberg News

by Darrell Preston

September 16, 2015 — 9:00 PM PDT Updated on September 17, 2015 — 6:42 AM PDT




Possible Impact of a Fed Rate Hike on Municipal Bonds.

Bloomberg’s Kate Smith reports on Fed policy and municipal bonds. She speaks on “Bloomberg Markets.”

Watch the video.

September 17, 2015




Fitch: Sea Level Rise May Challenge Some Local U.S. Governments.

Fitch Ratings-New York-16 September 2015: The rise in sea levels already impacts some communities and, in the long term, may pressure some local governments’ operations, capital funding requirements and indebtedness, says Fitch Ratings. Such risks include heightened damage from episodic events such as hurricanes and storm surges (event risks) in addition to more chronic damage from pervasive flooding and permanent loss of land. Further, citizens living in flood plains are facing higher federal flood insurance rates.

Revised zoning ordinances are evolving that may impose coastal or low-lying development moratoriums or mandate modifications to existing housing to better withstand expected storm surges. These developments will change the nature of shoreline development and may negatively affect local government operations as home owner cost increases and restrictions on new development place limits upon taxable resource growth.

To date, the sea level rise has not played a material role in Fitch’s assessment of the fundamental credit characteristics of any of its rated issuers. Fitch’s special report, “Event Risk and Overall Credit Resiliency,” dated December 2014, provides more detail. However, there are real threats faced by governments in coastal areas. As the effects of sea level rise upon issuers’ credit fundamentals become known and measurable, over time, these considerations may take on greater importance as a credit factor in Fitch’s rating decisions.

For more information, see latest Fitch Wire+ research on this topic.




Can Social Impact Bonds Help Reduce Homelessness?

On any given night in Santa Clara County, Calif., more than 6,000 people are homeless. Annually, that’s costing the county more than $500 million. To Dave Cortese, president of the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors, such a high cost should come with better results. The solution, he says, is obvious: “Devise a program that rapidly treats those folks and turns some from persistently homeless to consistently housed, and you cut down on the safety net they’re using.”

But that kind of prompt and comprehensive response is difficult for local government, in part because of the high upfront costs. Three years ago, Cortese heard about a new financing tool that tapped into the private and philanthropic sectors for early investors for otherwise cost-prohibitive public programs. If the program worked, the government would use future years’ revenue to pay back its investors. The tool, known as a social impact bond or “pay for success” program, was new to Cortese. Even though it was called a “bond,” it was more of a public-private partnership for experimental and expensive interventions in human services.

Last month, Santa Clara County announced Project Welcome Home, the latest local government initiative that leverages the social impact bond model. In the next six years, a nonprofit called Abode Services will provide housing and support services to between 150 and 200 long-term homeless people. The nonprofit will assign small caseloads to a multidisciplinary team with training in psychiatry, substance abuse, social work, nursing and vocational rehabilitation. The approach represents a combination of evidence-based practices, and is backed by academic research and recommended by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

A group of funders is providing $6.9 million — mostly in loans — to make the project happen. Project Welcome Home’s goal is to house at least 80 percent of participants for a year or more. If the program is successful, the county will reimburse its lenders as each person hits certain tenancy milestones. For example, lenders will initially be paid $1,242 for every individual who stays housed for three months. The largest reimbursement comes after a formerly homeless person remains in housing for a year:

 

Payment to Lender per Program Participant Milestone      Participant Milestone

$1,242                                                                                                              3 months of continuous tenancy
$1,863                                                                                                              6 months of continuous tenancy
$2,484                                                                                                             9 months of continuous tenancy
$6,831                                                                                                             12 month of continuous tenancy
$1,035                                                                                                             Each month after the first year of continuous                                                                                                                                          tenancy

In the next six years, the county has agreed to set aside about $8 million from its general fund to pay back its lenders if Abode is successful in keeping people housed.

Part of the appeal of social impact bonds is that they force local governments to account for current public spending on a problem and estimate cost savings if it reduced the problem using a relatively new and expensive intervention. That logic is driving the Santa Clara project as well. A study published in May by the Economic Roundtable, a policy research nonprofit in California, found that more than 2,800 people are chronically homeless in Santa Clara County, and each of them costs about $83,000 a year in public spending. Cortese and the rest of the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors are betting that as the homeless population drops, some of that $83,000 in spending at local jails, emergency rooms and shelters will drop as well.

While the Santa Clara County social impact bond is certainly an effort to control spending on homeless services, local officials have been careful not to make reduced costs the sole objective. “We are not predicating success based on the amount saved,” says Greta Hansen, a county attorney overseeing Project Welcome Home. The primary goal, Hansen says, is to house people and keep them housed for a long time. The project also may bring other benefits that county officials consider desirable even if they don’t translate into direct cash savings. For example, wait times at emergency rooms may go down as fewer homeless patients make frequent and repeat visits. That’s a “noncashable” improvement in service delivery, Hansen says.

Another noncashable benefit is the increased focus on data collection and performance measurement in a human services context. Independent researchers from the University of California, San Francisco, have designed an evaluation tool to track treatment groups and control group to determine if Project Welcome Home can be credited for improvements in participants’ health or decreases in their use of social services. “For so long, it’s been a bit of mystery how impactful the [support] services we deliver are,” Hansen says. “We were paying the same amount for a service provider who was extremely effective as one that was less effective. We want to tie our expenditure of public dollars to the outcomes we want to see.”

Santa Clara County’s Project Welcome Home comes at a difficult time for social impact bonds: It launched less than two months after the first and most famous social impact bond in the United States came to an early end. Group therapy for juvenile inmates, the intervention being tried in Rikers Island, N.Y., proved to be ineffective, so the primary funder, Goldman Sachs, pulled the plug. The contract in Santa Clara County includes a similar clause that allows funders to discontinue the project if Abode doesn’t meet its housing targets. “There is risk,” says Cortese. “No one is saying there isn’t risk.” But, he counters, anyone questioning the net benefit of the project should consider the counterfactual, “what you would spend on homelessness if you kept doing what you’ve been doing.” That’s about $3.1 billion over six years, according to the Economic Roundtable study.

While failure is a possibility, so is expansion. The initial project only deals with a small slice of the county’s overall homeless population, but that could change. If enough participants reach their first set of tenancy milestones, Cortese says he would want to explore ways to scale up the program as early as June of next year.

Santa Clara County is one of eight U.S. jurisdictions with a social impact bond project that is up and running. The other seven are in Massachusetts, New York, Ohio and Utah. While they are alike in using nongovernmental funding to cover high upfront costs for an intervention, they seek to address different issues, such as disparities in early childhood education, high prisoner recidivism and chronic homelessness. Other than the Rikers Island project, none have reported final results.

GOVERNING.COM

BY J.B. WOGAN | SEPTEMBER 8, 2015




Hedge Funds Fill Gap in the U.S. Municipal Bond Market.

Besides shouldering risks on municipal paper that mutual funds won’t take, hedge fund firms are pushing for better disclosure from issuers.

At the end of July, Wells Fargo & Co. analysts Natalie Cohen and Roy Eappen published a research note suggesting that hedge fund buyers are becoming bigger players in the $3.6 trillion U.S. municipal bond market. But as the New York–based researchers pointed out, there’s no clear way to see what those firms are buying and why.

Tracking players in the market is tough because of a quirk in how the U.S. Federal Reserve Board counts what it calls household investors. “The Federal Reserve (sadly) includes both non-profit organizations and hedge funds in the Household category” of bondholders, Cohen and Eappen wrote.

Still, a scan of the headlines suggests that hedge funds are going all in on obvious U.S. distressed plays like Puerto Rico, any issuance coming out of Illinois and, more recently, the city of Hillview, Kentucky. (Hillview has filed for bankruptcy, but there’s some question about whether it will be able to proceed.)

Hector Negroni, co-founder, co-CEO and CIO at New York–based Fundamental Credit Opportunities, an $800 million municipal finance fund, says the opportunity set for hedge funds is much larger than distressed debt. Although people think municipal bonds are just for mom-and-pop investors, he explains, before the financial crisis proprietary trading desks at the U.S. bulge-bracket banks and even foreign banks were big players.

“Hedge funds have stepped into that gap,” says Negroni, who ran Goldman Sachs Group’s municipal desk until he founded Fundamental Credit Opportunities within New York–headquartered, $2.2 billion alternative-asset manager Fundamental Advisors in 2012. “It’s a liquidity option to be in municipal bonds.”

For hedge funds, the municipal bond market is still a bit small for the block trades and other big moves they often make. However, munis have emerged as a viable opportunity for a modest bond sleeve within multistrategy funds or as part of a diversified credit exposure. In Negroni’s experience, the types of bonds available within the municipal market vary widely, and they’re responsive to ebbs and flows in the market.

Hedge funds create demand for municipal bonds that mutual funds and other retail investors won’t touch, notes Vikram Rai, a New York–based analyst and head of municipal strategy at Citigroup. “Hedge funds have longer holding periods as well and are thus willing to take their chance on the steps of the bankruptcy court, whereas mutual funds do not want to see a disruption in their coupon income,” Rai says, adding that hedge funds also see liquidity opportunities in municipal bonds owing to the market’s overall strength.

That relative strength appears to be bringing foreign banks back too, as regulations permit. According to Wells Fargo’s Cohen and Eappen, international buyers have boosted their holdings by 144 percent since 2006: “These investors find municipal securities attractive when they are cheap relative to Treasuries, and the spread effectively overcomes the U.S. tax code.” This move to munis is most common during so-called flight-to-quality events like the one that has roiled international markets in recent weeks. Munis even saw increased interest from international buyers on the heels of the U.S. credit rating downgrade in 2011.

The price is right when the current yield on an index of triple-A-rated municipal bonds beats that on equivalent Treasuries. For example, the yield on municipal bonds is hovering around 3.82 percent, according to the Bond Buyer Go 20–Bond Municipal Bond index. As of September 10 the highest yield on U.S. government bonds was 2.98 percent on 30-year paper, the Department of the Treasury reports.

The growth of nonretail interest in municipal bonds has come with pushback from critics who say that hedge funds are just in the market to speculate, but Negroni disagrees. “Hedge funds are professionalizing the municipal bond market,” he says. “Hedge funds are the ones putting bond issuers’ feet to the fire and asking for better disclosures. That’s not a bad thing.”

Alternative-investment firms may get some help from the Securities and Exchange Commission on this score. Municipal bond underwriters are on the agency’s radar as part of its Municipalities Continuing Disclosure Cooperation Initiative. Under this effort the SEC is bringing administrative actions against brokerages selling bonds to investors at inflated prices. On August 13 Edward D. Jones & Co. settled with the regulator on exactly this issue. The St. Louis–based brokerage had to pay a fine of more than $20 million but did not admit or deny wrongdoing.

More surprising is that after the settlement, SEC commissioners issued a separate statement calling for new and clear rules for municipal bond dealers that would require them to disclose markups and markdowns on trades. Taken together, the two actions signal that the agency is keeping a close eye on the municipal bond market and potential pricing violations.

So, why weren’t mutual funds and asset managers already pushing for all of this? The short answer is, mandates. Mutual funds and other retail investment vehicles in the municipal bond market are tasked with generating the most tax-exempt coupons. By contrast, hedge funds must provide the best risk-adjusted returns.

“Hedge funds have deep pockets and a higher appetite for risk,” Citi’s Rai says. “They typically step in at certain price points and provide demand for paper that mutual funds and other real money investors don’t want to hold. This has happened in the case of Puerto Rico and other credits as well, like Detroit.”

Alternative-investment firms with the right expertise are also providing specialty finance and municipal financing. Those packages can include bridge loans and municipal bond offerings around the same projects to create comprehensive solutions.

Rai believes the municipal bond market is strong enough to withstand “a handful” of defaults and subsequent distressed-debt interest without creating havoc. “I am quite optimistic about the overall credit landscape for munis,” he says.

Institutional Investor

By Bailey McCann

SEPTEMBER 11, 2015




Fed Rate Increase Too Late for BlackRock, Alpine Muni Cash Funds.

Whether the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase since 2006 comes this week or not, it won’t be soon enough for Alpine Funds’ municipal money-market fund.

Alpine Woods Capital Investors closed the $120 million fund in April after more than 12 years of operations, joining seven other tax-exempt money-market funds that have liquidated in the last 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That number is set to grow. BlackRock Inc. in July said it would close its New Jersey, North Carolina and Virginia money funds by the end of year, leaving it with 15.

“It’s tough times in the muni market,” said Peter Crane, president of Westborough, Massachusetts-based Crane Data, a money-fund researcher. “Rates are so low that nobody cares about the taxes on them, because there’s no income to be taxed.”

Caught in a vice of the Fed’s zero interest-rate policy and the cost of implementing new government regulations, fund companies are culling their offerings through liquidations and mergers. Municipal money-fund assets have plunged by half since peaking in August 2008, to $250 billion. The falloff has far outpaced taxable money-market funds, which dipped 20 percent in that period, to $2.4 trillion as of Sept. 10, according to the Investment Company Institute.

Municipal funds have been hit harder than prime money funds because the tax-exempt market is dominated by individual investors, while the taxable market is led by institutions which have been holding cash, said Crane. Tax-exempt seven-day money funds currently yield an average of 0.01 percent, while taxable funds yield 0.02 percent, according to iMoney.Net.

“Retail investors have options, whereas institutional investors are dealing with other people’s money, so they can’t afford to take risks,” he said. In particular, assets in brokerage sweep accounts are moving to bank deposits from muni money-market funds, Crane said.

Tax-exempt money-market funds, which invest in high-rated, short-term debt and are treated like cash by investors, may still recover as rates rise. Balances in tax-exempt funds more than doubled from the early 1980s through 2008, with faster inflows when the Fed funds rate was rising than it was declining, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Alpine Woods, based in Purchase, New York, said its fund wasn’t big enough to justify additional expenses resulting from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rules that take effect in October 2016 aimed at preventing a run on the funds. Costs for lawyers, technology, disclosure and stress testing are going up, fund managers said.

In September 2008, the $62.5 billion Reserve Primary Fund “broke the buck” because of losses on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. debt. Its move to reprice shares below $1 sowed panic among investors, who pulled $310 billion from money funds in a single week, helping freeze credit markets.

“Clearly there are some organizations where the cash product is essential to their product line-up and they have the scale to weather the storm,” said Steven Shachat, who managed the Alpine fund. Alpine still has a $980 million “ultra short” municipal fund, whose holdings have an average maturity of about 90 days.

Some bigger fund companies are also trimming product lines. In July, Western Asset Management, a Legg Mason Inc. affiliate, merged its $540 million Institutional AMT Free fund into the $1.3 billion Institutional Tax Free Reserves Fund, citing similar objectives and investment strategies.

“A shift in assets resulting from the low interest rate environment coupled with money market reform, gave us the opportunity to assess our platform and determine how best to continue to meet the investment needs of our clients,” Katherine Ewert, a BlackRock spokeswoman, said in an e-mailed statement.

Money-market fund revenue declined almost 60 percent, to $3.6 billion from December 2009 to December 2014, Crane estimates.

Under the new SEC rules, institutional taxable and municipal money market funds will move from a stable $1 price per-share to a floating share price.

In addition, funds may impose liquidity fees of as much as 2 percent and/or temporary suspensions of redemptions if weekly liquid assets fall below 30 percent. If weekly liquidity falls below 10 percent, money market funds must impose a 1 percent liquidity fee.

By contrast, retail funds, which are limited to individuals, can maintain a stable $1 per share price, although they are still subject to redemption restrictions and fees if they drop below liquidity levels.
More than 70 percent of the $250 billion in tax-exempt money-market assets are classified retail by the Investment Company Institute. The new rules don’t apply to U.S. government money-market funds.

Even as investors fled tax-exempt money funds, yields on short-term municipal bonds have averaged 0.07 percent over the last three years as state and local-government issuance of the debt has shrunk.

Municipalities are locking in 30-year fixed rate bonds for as low as 3.2 percent rather than issuing floating-rate bonds backed by bank credit facilities. In addition, as the improving economy boosts tax receipts, state and local governments’ need for short-term financing has declined.

Government officials are also focusing more on the risks related to issuing floating-rate bonds and entering into swap agreements. Municipalities may be forced to unwind the deals and buy back their debt at great cost if their credit rating is lowered below investment grade.

Chicago faced as much as $2.2 billion in payments to banks after Moody’s cut the third-largest U.S. cities debt to junk in May. The city has approved borrowing $1.1 billion to convert floating-rate bonds into longer-term fixed-rate debt and terminate interest-rate swaps, where floating and fixed-rate payments are exchanged.

“There’s a propensity for issuers to say, you know, the last thing we want is some sort of downgrade event to trigger a swap termination,” said Lyle Fitterer, who helps oversee $38 billion of munis at Wells Capital Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Bloomberg News

by Martin Z Braun

September 13, 2015




Markets Provide a Reality Check for the Risky Bet of Pension Obligation Bonds.

The scary stock market that we’ve seen since mid-August is a classic example of how reality keeps intruding on theory. And it shows how there really is no such thing as free money on Wall Street, no matter how beguiling the sales pitch.

The case in point: pension obligation bonds — a supposedly magic solution to the problem of underfunded government pensions. The idea is that governments with badly underfunded plans can borrow money at historically low rates, invest the borrowed cash in the stock market, and earn much more on stocks than the bonds cost in interest.

I wrote a skeptical article about these bonds in July, with Cezary Podkul of ProPublica as co-author. “Governments can borrow cheaply these days — but the risks of investing pension bond proceeds are unusually high,” we said. Recent weeks have proved us right.

We warned that potential pension bond issuers such as Colorado and Pennsylvania would be taking a huge chance by selling billions of dollars of bonds at seemingly low rates and investing the cash in the then-stable stock market.

The idea, as presented by investment banks (which get fees for doing deals), is that pension bonds can be a magic elixir. For two groups in particular, they profess, it’s just the thing: employee unions worried that underfunded pension plans could lead to benefit cuts, and public officials who want to improve pension-funding ratios without raising taxes or cutting benefits.

After all, the argument goes, you can’t go wrong selling bonds at about 5 percent interest to raise money to buy stocks, which have historically produced returns exceeding 10 percent.

Oops. Timing is everything. Had a government sold pension bonds on July 10, the day our article appeared, it would have suffered a double whammy. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has dropped 6 percent since then, and interest rates on the kind of municipal bonds that make up a large piece of pension issues have fallen.

Had Colorado sold its proposed maximum of $12 billion in pension bonds on July 10 and put the proceeds into the S&P 500 that day, its portfolio would be about $700 million underwater. What’s more, its bonds would probably be carrying a somewhat-higher-than-current-market interest rate.

That’s because the rate on 30-year AA-rated taxable muni bonds, a major component of pension bond issues, was 4.74 percent Thursday, according to Bloomberg, down from 5 percent on July 10. Rates on the 20-year version of the bond, another major pension bond component, were down slightly, to 4.46 percent from 4.49 percent.

So Colorado — which fortunately for its taxpayers deferred the pension bond issue after state legislators got nervous — would have had a large paper loss and would be paying what at least for now is an above-market rate on much of the borrowing.

“Recent market behavior has reminded us that markets have volatility and uncertainty and may not provide the returns we want, no matter how badly we need them,” said Ben Valore-Caplan, a Denver-based adviser to institutional investors who quit as vice chairman of the Colorado Public Employees’ Retirement Association board rather than be involved in a pension bond issue.

“Markets don’t care that a pension is underfunded,” he told me. “Pensions don’t get secret access to higher returns or lower risk. When they forget their place, the markets sooner or later will remind them.”

The S&P 500 has produced an average of 10.6 percent in price increases and reinvested dividends over the past 45 years. But that doesn’t mean you are guaranteed a double-digit return if you invest on a particular day. It’s about statistics: You can drown in a pond that’s an average of one foot deep if you happen to step into a 10-foot-deep part.

It’s one thing to invest in stocks over the long term. But investing gradually, over time, is a lot different than hocking yourself to the eyeballs and putting the borrowings into the market in one shot.

No, I’m not saying that stocks won’t recover and go on to new highs. What I am saying is that any government — or any retail investor — borrowing a ton of money and putting it all in the stock market at once is taking an enormous risk. It’s not a risk I would take myself. As recent weeks have shown, it’s not a risk that governments should take, either.

The Washington Post

By Allan Sloan

September 10, 2015

Research for this column was provided by Cezary Podkul of ProPublica.




S&P Webcast: U.S. Not-For-Profit Health Care Median Ratios.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services held an interactive, live Webcast and Q&A on Thursday, September 10, 2015, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time where the discussion included the U.S. not-for-profit health care median ratios reports.

Listen to the Webcast.

Sep. 10, 2015




Moody's: U.S. Not-For-Profit Health Care Sector Outlook Revised To Stable From Negative, Though Uncertainties Persist.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service has revised its outlook on the U.S. not-for-profit health care sector to stable from negative. We made this revision in light of operational improvements driven by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion, including a stronger-than-expected boost in volumes and payor mix reflecting clear declines in the number of uninsured people, management initiatives that are delivering on their early promise to improve performance, increasing balance sheet flexibility with generally higher unrestricted reserves, and continued operational benefits from merger and acquisition (M&A) activity.

Our previous negative outlook had anticipated modestly more downgrades than upgrades over the course of 2015. As recently as December 2014, however, we mentioned that there was “a glimmer of relief” for health care providers. The glimmer emerged faster and stronger than projected, as the historical changes sweeping the health care delivery system are taking root slower than expected allowing providers’ responses to a broad array of pressures to take hold. Although we expect broad industry pressures to continue and even grow over time, most notably the movement toward a value versus the current fee for service orientation, we believe ratings for the vast majority of providers will remain the same over the remainder of 2015 and 2016, and upgrades and downgrades will remain balanced. Therefore, Standard & Poor’s revised its outlook on the U.S. not-for-profit sector to stable.

Overview

Continue reading.

09-Sep-2015




S&P’s Public Finance Podcast: (Factoring GASB 67/68 Into Our Pension Analysis And Second-Quarter Rating Trends)

In this week’s Extra Credit, Senior Director Larry Witte, from the global fixed income group, discusses second-quarter rating trends, and Senior Director Lisa Schroeer, from the local government group, talks about how GASB 67/68 factors into our pension analysis.

Listen to the Podcast.

Sep. 11, 2015




State and Local Governments' Ticking Debt Bomb.

As uncomfortable as it has been to watch, the unfolding drama in Greece has had one clear benefit: It has forced many other countries, including our own, to take a closer look at debt, as well as revenues, costs, growth rates, demographics and so on.

Fortunately the United States, compared to most European countries, doesn’t look too bad. Our economy has bounced back from the Great Recession far faster than others. Still, our national debt as a share of gross domestic product has leveled out at a rate somewhat higher than most European countries’. Between that and the unnaturally low level of current interest rates, an aging population and a likely pickup in health-care costs, economists are betting that the overall federal debt will resume its historic rise, leaving only about 5 percent of GDP available for all discretionary federal programs, including defense.

Former Democratic Sen. Robert Kerrey of Nebraska and former Republican Sen. John C. Danforth of Missouri, who co-chaired the 1994 Bipartisan Commission on Entitlement and Tax Reform, recently warned in a retrospective on the commission’s report that “the cost of servicing our higher debt will become the fastest-growing category of the budget.” Already, they noted, “federal spending on major investment programs is 2.7 percent of GDP and 12.8 percent of the budget — both historic lows.” Clearly if Washington is to right the ship — an almost humorous notion in this age of dysfunction — there will have to be significant tax and entitlement reform, as well as elimination of many subsidies handed out over the years to special interests.

That’s the federal picture, but what about states and localities? The fiscal outlook is mixed, but there are some general conclusions one can draw. According to a survey conducted by 11 associations of state and local officials, most states and localities are experiencing modest improvement in revenues. Forty-one states expect to meet or exceed their revenue projections for 2015. A recent study by Moody’s reveals that state debt levels last year declined for the first time in 28 years. Ending balances for cities are nearing their pre-recession highs, though they are still below the levels achieved in 2006. Counties are recovering even more slowly and unevenly, but they are recovering.

Meanwhile, the most politically sensitive and worrisome economic issue state and local leaders face involves public pensions. The news here is also somewhat contradictory. In mid-July, the Pew Charitable Trusts released a research report covering the period through 2013, warning that the total state pension shortfall is creeping up on $1 trillion, with the funding gap between what has been promised and what is available rising by 6 percent to $968 billion.

But another report on state and local plans prepared by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College — considered the gold standard in the analysis of public pensions — is a bit more sanguine. It notes that when the disastrous year of 2009 was rotated out of the so-called “smoothing process” in 2014, it resulted in “a sharp increase in actuarial assets and … the first improvement in the funded status of public-sector plans since the financial crisis.” The average percentage of required contributions paid last year bounced up to 88 percent from the average of 82 percent over the past few years.

In other words, a slowly improving economy and healthier financial markets offer a slight ray of hope. “What happens from here on out depends very much on the performance of the stock market,” the Boston College report stated. “In 2018, assuming a healthy stock market, plans should be at least 80 percent funded.”

That’s a significant figure, because somewhere around 80 percent funding is considered the minimum to deem a pension plan healthy. We haven’t seen that level in some time. But the Pew study includes a significant warning: “State and local policymakers cannot count on investment returns over the long term to close this gap and instead need to put in place funding policies that put them on track to pay down pension debt.”

So despite some recent improvement, serious problems remain, some of which dominate headlines. If this country has a Greece, it’s probably Illinois, with Chicago as its Athens. Or perhaps it’s a commonwealth like Puerto Rico, now some $70 billion in the red and seeking permission from Washington to restructure its debt in bankruptcy.

Localities may still depend on federal assistance in the case of natural disasters like hurricanes or floods. But the report from the 11 state and local associations makes clear what they don’t want: “State and local governments can weather difficult economic periods and officials are taking steps to restore fiscal stability,” it said, but added that “interference in the fiscal affairs of state and local governments by the federal government is neither requested nor warranted.”

Translated, that means “hands off.” But that gets tricky. The courts have struck down a number of both state and local reform efforts in places like Arizona, California, Illinois and Oregon, putting new pressure on governors and legislatures to come up with meaningul, systemwide overhauls. So Washington and many states and localities are running out of options for significant financial reforms, not just for pension systems, but their balance sheets as a whole. The sooner they meet their responsibilities, the better.

GOVERNING.COM

BY PETER HARKNESS | SEPTEMBER 2015

Founder, Publisher Emeritus




As Charter School Bond Sales Rise, Pennsylvania Fight Shows Risk.

At Chester Upland School District, one of Pennsylvania’s poorest, the receiver appointed by Governor Tom Wolf to oversee its finances moved to cut $25 million from the charter schools that teach more than half of its 7,200 students outside of Philadelphia.

The effort was blocked by a judge last month, giving a reprieve to the privately-run schools — and the bondholders repaid with taxpayer funds. “Those schools would have been forced to close,” said Bob Fayfich, executive director of the Pennsylvania Coalition of Public Charter Schools.

The skirmish in Pennsylvania underscores the pitfalls for investors following a surge in bond sales by charter schools, which receive funding based on how many students enroll. The independently operated institutions provide parents an alternative to poorly performing neighborhood schools.

In cities including New York, Chicago and Detroit, teachers’ unions are fighting the expansion of charters, saying they siphon money from traditional schools. Last week, the Washington State Supreme Court deemed them unconstitutional because they’re not accountable to voters, jeopardizing funding for the schools in that state.

Securities sold by the upstarts are among the riskiest in the $3.6 trillion municipal market because the schools fail if students don’t sign up or they’re shut down because of poor results. Forty-one, or 5 percent, of the 818 charter-school bond deals sold since 1998 have defaulted, according to a survey released in July by the New York-based Local Initiatives Support Corp., which assists the institutions. That compares with a default rate of 0.02 percent for municipal issues rated by Moody’s Investors Service since 1970.

Standard & Poor’s said in an August report that it expects more downgrades than upgrades this year to the charter schools it rates because of their small size and limited financial flexibility.

“Political risk is part of the equation,” said John Miller, co-head of fixed income in Chicago at Nuveen Asset Management, which oversees about $100 billion of municipal debt including securities from Pennsylvania charter schools. “It’s not a risk-free credit category.”

With municipal-market yields holding near a half-century low, investors have snapped up charter-school bonds, which offer higher payouts than debt sold by states or cities because of the risk. About $1.4 billion of the securities have been sold this year, following a record $1.9 billion in 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chester Upland School District, in an impoverished stretch of the suburbs southwest of Philadelphia, had 3,890 enrolled in charter schools in the past year, according to state figures. The Chester Community Charter School, which educates about 3,000 of them, sold $57 million of bonds in 2010 to buy buildings it uses.

The district has contended with chronic deficits despite being under state control since 1994. Wolf tried to close the $23 million shortfall in its $139 million budget this year by cutting special-education payments to charter schools to $16,000 per student from $40,000 and capping the tuition the state will pay for online instruction.

The governor, who took office in January, said that Chester was sending more special-education funding to charter schools than other districts. Its payments were the biggest in the state and $9,000 more than the district with the next highest in the region.

Jeffrey Sheridan, a spokesman for the governor, said the administration is “committed to drastic, but necessary” actions to stabilize the Chester school system.

The potential funding loss had led investors to demand higher yields on bonds sold by the Chester Community school compared with top-rated securities. A tax-exempt security due August 2030 traded Sept. 4 at an average yield of 5.9 percent, or 3.23 percentage points over benchmark munis, Bloomberg data show. The difference was as little as 2.7 percent in March.

Max Tribble, a spokesman for CSMI LLC, the company that manages the community school, and David E. Clark Jr, the school’s chief executive officer, didn’t return calls for comment.

Akosua Watts, who runs the Chester Charter School for the Arts, which has 490 students, said the school is already owed $1.8 million from the state, and the cuts first proposed by Wolf could have forced it to close. “We’re in a tight situation,” she said. “We’re doing the best we can to manage.”

She and other school officials received a break on Aug. 25, when Delaware County Judge Chad Kenney, who must approve the district’s financial plans, rejected the governor’s cutbacks. Sheridan said the receiver will propose another blueprint this month and that he disagrees with those who said the previous one would have shuttered schools.

“Governor Wolf believes charter schools can be an innovative approach to public education and should be part of our public education system, but charter schools must be held to the same standards to which public schools are held,” Sheridan said.

The fight in Chester may not be the last in Pennsylvania. In the proposed budget for the year that began in July, which has yet to be approved by the Republican-controlled legislature, Wolf wanted to cap the tuition payments for online charter schools.

There will probably be more efforts to reduce payments or curb enrollment in the state’s charters, said Thomas Stoeckmann, a senior research analyst in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, for Wells Capital Management, which oversees $38 billion of municipal bonds, including those from charter schools.

Such risk “definitely has increased and has probably been more pronounced since the recent election,” he said.

Bloomberg News

Romy Varghese

September 10, 2015 — 9:01 PM PDT Updated on September 11, 2015 — 6:16 AM PDT




Fitch Releases Exposure Draft for U.S. State & Local Government Criteria.

Fitch Ratings-New York-10 September 2015: Maintaining rating stability through swings in the U.S. economy is critical for both state and local government credits, according to Fitch Ratings. The rating agency has published an exposure draft for revisions it is proposing to its criteria for U.S. state and local governments.

One notable component revolves around the fundamental role that a government’s economy plays in analysis. ‘Whereas it was a standalone bucket in the past, we now propose incorporating the economy into the analysis of four focused key rating factors,’ said Managing Director Laura Porter. ‘We are introducing scenario analysis to explicitly consider the economic cycle in order to better communicate our expectations for state and local government rating stability through cycles.’

The four key rating factors driving state and local government ratings are centered around:

–Revenues;
–Expenditures;
–Long-term liabilities;
–Operating performance.

As part of its revised criteria, Fitch would create scenarios that consider how a government’s revenues may be affected in a cyclical downturn and the options available to address the resulting budget gap. Fitch has made publicly available preliminary versions of two tools that support this analysis. The Revenue Sensitivity Tool estimates possible future revenue behavior in a downturn, allowing the user to view and chart historical revenue performance and form peer groups for over 500 state and local issuers. The Scenario Analysis Tool compares issuers’ ability to navigate through a downturn.

Under the revised criteria, Fitch will also provide more in-depth opinions on reserve adequacy related to individual issuers’ inherent budget flexibility and revenue volatility. ‘State and local government credits have proven to be quite resilient despite the broader market turmoil in recent years so creating these scenarios would not only make our ratings more likely to remain stable over time but make any rating movement much more predictable,’ said Porter.

Fitch does not expect the proposed criteria revisions to trigger widespread rating changes. Rating actions would likely not exceed 10% of the government credits covered by the criteria, with a roughly equal mix of upgrades and downgrades. Upgrades would likely result from the more focused consideration of the economy while downgrades would center around the more integrated consideration of the adequacy of reserve funding.

Fitch will be accepting market feedback for its proposed revisions until Nov. 20, 2015. Comments can be emailed to ‘[email protected]’.

Exposure Draft: U.S. Tax-Supported Rating Criteria is available here.

Fitch’s exposure draft will also be available on a new landing page (‘info.fitchratings.com/pf comment’) along with the following documents:

–An overview of the criteria and answers to frequently asked questions (‘Proposed Tax-Supported Rating Criteria: Overview and FAQs’);
–New through-the-cycle tools (‘Introducing the Fitch Revenue Sensitivity Tool for Public Finance’), the preliminary versions of which will be publicly available (with limited data) during the comment period.

Contact:

Laura Porter
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0575
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY, 10004

Jessalynn Moro
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0608

Amy Laskey
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0568

James Batterman, CFA
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0385

Media Relations: Sandro Scenga, New York, Tel: +1 212-908-0278, Email: [email protected].

Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.




Public Pension Funds Roll Back Return Targets.

Public pension funds from California to New York are cutting investment-return predictions to their lowest levels since the 1980s, a shift that portends greater hardships for employees and cash-strapped governments as Americans age.

New upheavals in global markets and a sustained period of low interest rates are forcing officials who manage retirements for nearly 20 million U.S. beneficiaries to abandon a long-held belief that stocks, bonds and other holdings would earn 8% each year, as well as expectations that those gains would fund hundreds of billions of dollars in liabilities.

More than two-thirds of state retirement systems have trimmed assumptions since 2008 as the financial crisis and an uneven U.S. recovery knocked many below their long-term goals, according to an analysis of 126 plans provided by the National Association of State Retirement Administrators. The average target of 7.68% is the lowest since at least 1989. The peak was 8.1% in 2001.

On Friday, the New York State Common Retirement Fund, the third-largest public pension by assets, said it plans to drop its assumed returns to 7% from 7.5% after cutting a half-percentage point five years ago. That followed Thursday’s vote by the San Diego County Employees Retirement Association to drop its level to 7.5% from 7.75%.

“Realism,” said Brian McDonnell, managing director for pension consultant Cambridge Associates, is “creeping in.”

Moving expectations below 8% isn’t just an arcane accounting move. It has real-life consequences for systems that use these predictions to calculate the present value of obligations owed to retirees. Even slight cutbacks in return targets often mean budget-strained governments or workers are asked to pay significantly more to account for liabilities that are expected to rise as lifespans increase and more Americans retire. A drop of one percentage point will typically boost pension liabilities by 12%, said Jean-Pierre Aubry, an assistant director at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

Public pension funds use a combination of investment income and contributions from employees, states and cities to fund benefits.

In Boulder, Colo., the city eliminated 100 positions and consolidated city programs as a way of compensating for three reductions in the state’s investment forecast and a rise in pension contributions, as the economy sputtered. It also stopped planting tulips in most areas and shifted to less expensive wildflowers as a way of making an additional $1.7 million in pension payments, according to the city’s chief financial officer, Bob Eichem. “You do more with less,” Mr. Eichem said.

U.S. pensions first started to reconsider their investment-return assumptions after being stung by deep losses during the 2008 financial crisis. The event helped drop 10- and 15-year annual returns at large public pensions to 6.9% and 5.8%, respectively, according to the Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service. The retirement systems’ median return was 3.4% for the 12 months ended June 30 amid downturns in foreign stocks and bonds, their worst annual performance since 2012.

Retirement systems argue that lowering assumptions fortifies their fiscal health, because the influx of extra contributions means they become less reliant on generating big returns.

Some big funds are preparing to pull their goals back even further. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the nation’s largest pension, is discussing a new reduction below its level of 7.5%. The Oregon Public Employees Retirement System and the Texas Municipal Retirement System, the 14th and 35th largest, both approved lowering their forecasts in late July by a quarter of a percentage point. “Those days” of believing 8% could be earned annually “aren’t here anymore,” said New York state Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

But some critics contend that pensions are still relying on unrealistic expectations to fill ballooning funding gaps even as they move targets below 8%. The lower assumptions remain considerably higher than levels seen in the 1960s, when pensions estimated 3% to 3.5% returns from portfolios primarily comprised of cash and bonds. Pension officials pushed their predictions higher in subsequent decades as they embraced riskier holdings of stocks, real estate, commodities and hedge-fund assets.

“It’s clearly not enough,” said Josh McGee, a senior vice president of public accountability at the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, a nonprofit that has worked across the U.S. for changes to guaranteed pension benefits.

Pension funds said that while performance has lagged behind of late, they generally have been able to hit their targets over longer periods and expect to continue to do so.

A panel of U.S. actuaries and pension specialists has recommended that public systems move their assumed future returns down to 6.4%, and many corporations already use a more conservative rate for their pension funds. The average for companies listed in the Fortune 1000 dropped to 7.1% in 2014 from a high of 9.2% in 2000, according to a Towers Watson survey.

The most aggressive move downward among public employee pensions belongs to Delaware, where the state retirement system has dropped to a target of 7.2% from 8.5% in 2003, the largest change since 2001 among state plans tracked by the National Association of State Retirement Administrators. David Craik, the retirement system’s pension administrator, said he wouldn’t rule out further decreases.

“I’m kind of surprised others aren’t going as low as we did,” Mr. Craik said.

More big pullbacks by public plans would likely create deeper financial pain for governments and employees that have already cut services and benefits. Local and state contributions to retirement systems have more than doubled over the past decade, to $121.1 billion in 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. During that same time worker pension contributions rose 50%, to $45.5 billion.

In Fullerton, Calif., officials are sharing a fire chief and command-level staff with one neighboring town and splitting up tree-cutting contracts with other cities in the wake of a half-percentage point cut in return assumptions for the state’s retirement system. It was able to save $1.2 million.

“The pension costs are high and will continue to be high,” said Joe Felz, Fullerton’s city manager. “It’s tops to bottom looking where we can get savings.”

Still, some retirement systems believe 8% is possible, as 39 of them maintain forecasts at or above that old industry mark, according to the National Association of State Retirement Administrators. Two of them—the Houston Firefighters’ Relief and Retirement Fund and the Connecticut Teachers’ Retirement System—assume returns of 8.5%, the highest of any other plans.

“We strongly believe, and past history shows, we can continue to achieve the 8.5% long term,” said Todd Clark, chairman of the Houston firefighters’ fund. The Connecticut fund didn’t respond to requests for comment.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By TIMOTHY W. MARTIN

Updated Sept. 4, 2015 6:07 p.m. ET

Write to Timothy W. Martin at [email protected]




States, Cities Pay $4 Billion in Bond Fees Yearly, Study Finds.

U.S. state and local governments pay about $4 billion a year to underwriters, advisers, rating companies and other firms when they sell bonds, according to a study examining all of the fees for borrowers in the municipal debt market.

The governments used an average of about 1 percent of their bond proceeds to cover the expenses, according to the study by Marc Joffe for the Haas Institute for a Fair and Inclusive Society, a policy center at the University of California at Berkeley. The amounts varied widely, from 0.13 percent for short-term note issue in Utah to 10.6 percent for a California school district.

While underwriters’ payouts are closely tracked, far less attention has been paid to the fees charged by other firms, said Joffe, a credit-market researcher. He said greater scrutiny could empower officials to push for lower costs when they raise money in the $3.6 trillion market.

“Making the cost more transparent will allow issuers to shop around and hopefully find a better price,” said Joffe, principal consultant with Public Sector Credit Solutions in Walnut Creek, California. “If governments borrow, they should try to get the most for their money.”

The report, based on a review of 812 offerings nationwide between 2012 and 2015, is one of the broadest looks at the fees governments pay when they borrow. It includes even small expenses, such as the cost of publishing official statements on the Internet.

Underwriting accounted for an average of 46 percent of the cost, the largest single expense, according to the study. Then came bond attorneys, with 15 percent, and financial advisers, who got 14 percent. Fees for municipal-bond ratings totaled almost 8 percent.

Liz Pierce of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, representing bond dealers, declined to comment.

By Darrell Preston, Bloomberg News

August 30, 2015




GASB to Re-Examine State and Local Financial Reporting Model.

WASHINGTON — The Governmental Accounting Standards Board is planning to re-examine the standardized framework that state and local governments use to report their financial information.

The board added the project to its technical agenda on Tuesday. It plans to consider several improvements to components of the financial reporting model, including a change that would cause governments to provide more detail about their debt service funds in their financial reports. It also wants to see if changes can be made that would lead governments to release their financial reports in a more timely fashion.

GASB is likely to begin deliberations on areas of the project in October and will reach tentative conclusions that will help the board to develop an initial “due process document,” which is expected to be issued for public comment by the end of next year, according to a memorandum on the project. A final statement or product from the project is not expected to be issued until 2020 or 2021, and the statement would not take effect until after that, said GASB chairman David Vaudt.

The current “blueprint for state and local government financial reporting,” was established by GASB Statement 34, which was introduced in 1999, Vaudt said.

That statement established the format of basic financial reports, as well as some of the notes related to the statements and supplementary information such as the management’s discussion and analysis (MD&A), according to the memorandum. The MD&A is basically the “plain language” description of the information in the financial statements, Vaudt said.

Statement 34 also called for government-wide financial statements that included the reporting of infrastructure, other capital assets and long-term liabilities. Under the standards, state and local governments provide government-wide financial statements as well as statements on their governmental and proprietary funds, emphasizing major funds.

Over the past few years, GASB’s advisory council, which consists of people from stakeholder groups, identified re-examination of the financial reporting model as one of its top priorities for the board to consider, Vaudt said.

GASB’s staff conducted research on the idea, including holding nearly a dozen roundtables in 2013 with stakeholders – preparers, auditors and users of financial statements. The data gathered from the roundtables was then used to develop surveys for each type of stakeholders. GASB received survey responses last year from 265 preparers, 164 auditors and 184 users. After receiving the survey data, the board’s staff conducted nearly 150 interviews with stakeholders in the first half of this year, Vaudt said.

Through the research, GASB staff learned that “most of the components of the financial reporting model are effective,” Vaudt said. “However, a number of areas were identified where improvements could be made.”

The most fundamental changes to be explored as part of the new project relate to financial statements on governmental funds. Governments currently use the modified accrual method of accounting for these funds. The modified-accrual method gives more of a short-term look at the funds. GASB wants to examine whether improvements can be made to make sure that governmental funds are measured in a manner that agrees with its conceptual framework for governmental reporting. The board is also going to explore the possibility of having governmental funds measured in a way that is more consistently applied across all governments, Vaudt said.

GASB plans to explore the possibility of extending guidance for “major funds” so that debt service funds are more likely to be considered as part of these types of funds. Users of financial statements said that in most cases, governments’ debt service funds didn’t qualify as major funds, but that they would like to see more detail about debt service funds in financial reports, Vaudt said.

When it comes to government-wide financial statements, questions were raised about the effectiveness of the statement of activities because of the format and whether that could be improved. The board will also consider whether a government-wide statement of cash flows should be required, according to Vaudt and the board’s memo.

When it comes to the MD&A section, GASB will focus on exploring “making this section more meaningful,” Vaudt said. The board will look at whether some sections of the MD&A could be eliminated and how guidance on other sections could be enhanced.

“There’s just been concern from the user group that many a times, the disclosures become very boilerplate and don’t really get into the whys behind their changes,” Vaudt said. For example, the section will state that a metric increased by a certain amount but won’t explain the reasons for the gain, he said.

Throughout the project, an important part of GASB’s work will be to look for areas where the complexity and length of financial statements can be reduced. “One of the primary criticisms of government finance reports is they’re not available on a timely basis,” Vaudt said. Vaudt said he thinks everyone acknowledges there’s always room to improve the financial reporting model, though there may be some resistance to change. When Statement 34 was first developed, it was very controversial. Vaudt noted that, as he’s mentioned re-examining the financial model, some people have said they don’t want there to be changes to it.

THE BOND BUYER

by NAOMI JAGODA

SEP 1, 2015 2:34pm ET




Bloomberg Brief Weekly Video - 09/03/15.

Taylor Riggs, an editor at Bloomberg Brief, talks with Joe Mysak about this week’s municipal market news.

Watch the video.

September 3, 2015




Moody's: Illinois' Budget Impasse Secondary to Intensifying Pension and Revenue Problems.

New York, August 31, 2015 — The State of Illinois’ (A3 negative) current budget stalemate underscores the weak governance already incorporated into its rating, and is symptomatic of the state’s severe fiscal challenges, Moody’s Investors Service says in “State of Illinois: Late Budget Matters Less than Solving Pension and Revenue Problems.”

“Illinois projects its income and other taxes to generate $32 billion this fiscal year, or $5.4 billion less than expenditures without cuts,” author of the report and Moody’s Vice President — Sr Credit Officer Ted Hampton says. “While the state still has options to address its current-year deficit, continued political gridlock and the inability to reach an agreement by late September will greatly increase the likelihood of the deficit moving from projected to actual.”

The state also faces intensifying pressure to fund retiree benefits, which account for roughly 24% of its current general fund expenditures. The pension funding situation is compounded by retiree healthcare benefits costs, which are growing at about 6.5% a year.

“The state’s ability to manage these pressures will be a primary determinant of future rating actions. Given the state’s ironclad protection of benefits for current workers and retirees, Illinois requires a long-term plan to ensure it can at least comply with statutory funding requirements,” Hampton says.

Moody’s says the state has been deficient for many years in meeting the standardized annual required contribution (ARC) requirements to its pensions, and has been legally blocked from reducing its accrued liabilities via pension benefit cuts.

In the absence of a budget, Illinois will eventually have insufficient revenues to fund likely expenses, even as the pace of spending has slowed from last year. Some expenses have been paid because they do not require appropriation, have been mandated by court orders, or are allowed under limited appropriation measures.

Like other states, Illinois has had budget delays before, most recently in FY 2010. Moody’s believes it is unlikely Illinois can significantly reduce expenses without having a full budget in place, especially with services like healthcare that continue to be provided.

The report is available to Moody’s subscribers here.




Moody's: California's State and Local Pension Costs Rising in Face of Limited Reform Options.

New York, September 02, 2015 — The State of California (Aa3 stable) provides the strongest level of legal protections for its public pension benefits via a series of state supreme court decisions, which limits both the state’s and its local governments’ options to address pension challenges apart from making higher budgetary contributions, Moody’s Investors Service says.

Numerous court decisions, collectively known as the “California Rule,” have given California pensioners ironclad legal safeguards limiting reforms on pensions and retiree health benefits to future employees, says Moody’s in its new report “California and its Local Governments Face Sustained Pension Cost Hikes.”

“Because of the California Rule, recent statewide pension reforms will take years to materialize because they are limited to new employees. State and local government contributions to address accumulated unfunded pension liabilities will therefore continue rising for the next several years.” says author of the report and Moody’s AVP — Analyst Thomas Aaron

Two of the largest US public pension systems, the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS, Aa2 stable) and the California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS, Aa2 stable), comprise a significant portion of pension exposure for the state and its local governments. In addition, there are a number of large cities and counties with localized plans with benefits set at the local level.

California currently has the highest adjusted net pension liability of any state, with an FY 2013 figure of $189.4 billion. However, the state’s huge economy places this amount at 92.5% of revenues, which is 17th highest among states and above the 50-state median of 52.8% of revenues.

In 2012, the state passed a broad set of pension reforms which impacted state, most local governments and many participants in CalPERS and CalSTRS. The Public Employees’ Pension Reform Act (PEPRA) instituted changes for employees hired after January 1, 2013 or later. This included capping levels of “pensionable” compensation and less generous pension benefit formulas.

Additionally, in 2014, the state implemented reforms and mandatory contribution increases designed to substantially improve CalSTRS’ funding trajectory and prevent unfettered growth in the plan’s unfunded liabilities, which would have led to asset depletion by the mid-2040s.

While state and local pension costs continue to increase, the maturation of pension plans and their continued reliance on equities and other risky investments lends an additional element of contribution volatility. Efforts to reduce volatility risk are being considered, but would push contribution requirements for the state and local governments beyond what is already anticipated.

The report is available to Moody’s subscribers here.




Taxpayers, More Pension Burdens Headed Your Way.

Public pension fund managers from California to New York are slashing investment predictions to their lowest levels since the 1980s, a shift that will mean greater hardships for employees and cash-strapped governments as Americans age.

New upheavals in global markets and a sustained period of low interest rates are forcing officials who manage retirements for nearly 20 million U.S. beneficiaries to abandon a long-held belief that stocks, bonds and other holdings would earn 8% each year, as well as expectations that those gains would fund hundreds of billions in liabilities.

More than two-thirds of state retirement systems have trimmed assumptions since 2008 as the financial crisis and an uneven U.S. recovery knocked many below their long-term goals, according to an analysis of 126 plans provided by the National Association of State Retirement Administrators. The current average target of 7.68% is the lowest since at least 1989. The peak was 8.1% in 2001.

On Friday New York State Common Retirement Fund, the third largest public pension by assets, said it would drop its assumed returns to 7% from 7.5% after cutting a half percentage point five years ago. That followed Thursday’s vote by the San Diego County Employees Retirement Association to drop its level to 7.5% from 7.75%.

“Realism,” said Brian McDonnell, managing director for pension consultant Cambridge Associates, is “creeping in.”

Moving expectations below 8% isn’t just an arcane accounting move. It has real-life consequences for systems that use these predictions to calculate the present value of obligations owed to their retirees. Even slight cutbacks in return targets often mean budget-strained governments or workers are asked to pay significantly more to account for liabilities that are expected to rise as lifespans increase and more Americans retire. A drop of one percentage point will typically boost pension liabilities by 12%, according to Jean-Pierre Aubry, an assistant director at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

Public pension funds use a combination of investment income and contributions from employees, states and cities to fund benefits.

In Boulder, Colo., the city eliminated 100 positions and consolidated city programs as a way of compensating for three reductions in the state’s investment forecast and a spike in pension contributions, as the economy sputtered. It also stopped planting tulips in most areas and shifted to less expensive wildflowers as a way of making an additional $1.7 million in pension payments, according to the city’s chief financial officer, Bob Eichem.

“You do more with less,” Mr. Eichem said.

U.S. pensions first started to reconsider their rosier outlooks after being stung by deep losses during the 2008 financial crisis. The event helped drop 10- and 15-year annual returns at large public pensions to 6.9% and 5.8%, according to the Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service. The retirement systems earned just 3.43% for the 12 months ended June 30 amid downturns in foreign stocks and bonds, their worst annual performance since 2012.

Retirement systems argue that lowering assumptions fortifies their fiscal health because the influx of extra contributions means they become less reliant on generating big returns.

Some big funds are preparing to pull their goals back even further. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the nation’s largest pension by assets, is discussing a new reduction below its current level of 7.5%. The Oregon Public Employees Retirement System and the Texas Municipal Retirement System, the 14th and 35th largest by assets, both approved lowering their forecasts in late July by a quarter of a percentage point.

“Those days” of believing 8% could be earned annually “aren’t here anymore,” said New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

But some critics contend that pensions are still relying on unrealistic expectations to fill ballooning funding gaps even as they move targets below 8%. The lower assumptions remain considerably higher than levels seen in the 1960s when pensions estimated 3%-3.5% returns from portfolios primarily comprised of cash and bonds. Pension officials pushed their predictions higher in subsequent decades as they embraced riskier holdings of stocks, real estate, commodities and hedge-fund assets.

“It’s clearly not enough,” said Josh McGee, a senior vice president of public accountability at the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, a nonprofit that has worked across the U.S. for changes to guaranteed pension benefits.

A panel of U.S. actuaries and pension experts has recommended that public systems move their assumed future returns down to 6.4%, and many corporations already use a more conservative rate for their pension funds. The average for companies listed in the Fortune 1000 dropped to 7.08% in 2014 from a high of 9.18% in 2000, according to a Towers Watson survey.

The most aggressive move downward among public employee pensions belongs to Delaware, where the state retirement system has dropped to a target of 7.2% from 8.5% in 2003—the largest change since 2001 among state plans tracked by NASRA. David Craik, the retirement system’s pension administrator, said he would not rule out further decreases.

“I’m kind of surprised others aren’t going as low as we did,” Mr. Craik said.

More dramatic pullbacks by public plans would likely create deeper financial pain for governments and employees that have already agreed to service cuts and benefit reductions designed to pay for mounting pension obligations. Local and state contributions to retirement systems have more than doubled over the past decade to $121.1 billion in 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. During that same time worker pension contributions rose 50% to $45.5 billion.

In Fullerton, Calif., officials are sharing a fire chief and dispatch workers with one neighboring town and splitting up tree-cutting contracts with other cities in the wake of a half-percentage point cut in return assumptions for the state’s retirement system. It was able to save $1.2 million.

“The pension costs are high and will continue to be high,” said Joe Felz, Fullerton’s city manager. “It’s tops to bottom looking where we can get savings.”

Some retirement systems believe 8% is possible, as 35 of them maintain forecasts above the old industry mark, according to NASRA. Two of them—the Houston Firefighters’ Relief and Retirement Fund and the Connecticut Teachers’ Retirement System—assume returns of 8.5%, the highest of any other plans.

“We strongly believe and past history shows we can continue to achieve the 8.5% long term,” said Todd Clark, chairman of the Houston firefighters’ fund.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By TIMOTHY W. MARTIN

Updated Sept. 4, 2015 1:39 p.m. ET

Write to Timothy W. Martin at [email protected]




GASB Adds Project to Revisit Blueprint of Governmental Financial Statements.

Norwalk, CT, September 1, 2015 — The Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) today added to its technical agenda a project to reexamine the financial reporting model for state and local government financial statements.

The project’s objective is to make improvements to the existing financial reporting model, which was established in 1999 through Statement No. 34, Basic Financial Statements—and Management’s Discussion and Analysis—for State and Local Governments, and subsequent related pronouncements. Among other benefits, any improvements would be meant to enhance the effectiveness of the model in providing information essential for decision-making and assessing a government’s accountability.

The reexamination will benefit from research the GASB staff has conducted with users, preparers, and auditors of governmental financial statements over the past two years on how the financial reporting model is functioning in practice.

“The financial reporting model has a pervasive influence on the effectiveness of financial reporting of U.S. state and local governments and the extent to which the objectives of financial reporting are achieved,” said GASB Chair David A. Vaudt. “However, the current model has been fully in effect for a decade. It is an important part of effective standards setting to routinely seek to improve existing standards that have been in effect for some time.”

“During the course of the reexamination, the Board will consider concerns about the complexity of the current financial reporting model and the potential effects on timeliness of financial reporting,” the GASB Chair said.

Statement 34 established the present structure for state and local government financial reporting—the format and contents of the basic financial statements, certain related notes to the financial statements, and required supplementary information including management’s discussion and analysis (MD&A).

One of the most significant additions to the reporting model made by Statement 34 was the introduction of government-wide financial statements containing accrual information—which notably includes the reporting of infrastructure, other capital assets, and long-term liabilities.

Potential Areas of Improvement

The project will consider improvements to major features of the financial reporting model, including:

In each of these areas, the Board will continually look for opportunities to reduce the complexity of financial statements, which could positively impact the timeliness of governmental financial reporting.

The Board is scheduled to begin project deliberations in October 2015 and anticipates issuing an initial due process document for public comment by the end of 2016.

Additional information about the reexamination of the financial report model is available on the GASB website, www.gasb.org.




A New Plan for American Cities To Free Themselves of Wall Street’s Control.

Just three U.S. cities—New York, Los Angeles and Chicago—together with their related agencies and pension funds, do nearly $600 billion of business with Wall Street every year.

In August 2014, the Los Angeles City Council debated whether to call for the renegotiation of the city’s financial deals. A report by the labor-community coalition Fix L.A. found that the city had spent more than twice as much on banking fees in fiscal year 2013 as it had on street services.

To try to balance its budget, Los Angeles had enacted hundreds of millions of dollars in cuts over the previous five years. City jobs had been slashed by 10 percent, flood control procedures had been cut back, crumbling sidewalks were not repaired and alleys were rarely cleared of debris. Sewer inspections ceased entirely; the number of sewer overflows doubled from 2008 to 2013.

The campaign slogan wrote itself: “Invest in our streets, not Wall Street!”

At the city council debate, Timothy Butcher, a worker with the Bureau of Street Services, got up and said, “I don’t know a whole lot about high finance. I’m just a truck driver. But I do know, if I go to a bank and they give me a bad deal, I don’t deal with that bank any more. And I don’t understand why the city can’t use the same kind of concept on some of these big banks, saying, ‘Hey, help us out or, you know, we’re not going to deal with you any more.’ ”

The City Council approved the resolution unanimously.

It was a blow against both the austerity agenda and the iron grip of Wall Street on American cities. State and local governments in the United States rely on Wall Street firms to put together bond deals, manage their investments and provide financial services. For this, banks charge billions of dollars in fees each year. Public officials believe they have little choice but to cough up. When there are revenue shortfalls, cities typically impose austerity measures and cut essential community services, but Wall Street gets a free pass—payments to banks are considered untouchable.

Public officials assume (wrongly) that financial fees are set in stone because they are based on so-called market rates. However, market rates aren’t preordained by God. Banks set them, and public finance officials simply don’t demand anything substantively lower.

So, what if cities took a page from the labor movement and bargained collectively over interest rates and other financial deals?

The simple reason why anti-union politicians are waging a war on collective bargaining by workers is that it works: There is power in numbers. The basic idea behind such bargaining is to shift the balance of power in the employer-employee relationship and empower workers to negotiate with owners on a more equal footing.

But collective bargaining does not have to be limited to the workplace. Student organizations such as United Students Against Sweatshops have forced university administrations to negotiate over labor standards for their merchandise vendors. Consumer unions press retailers over issues like pricing and safety standards. Community organizations are able to negotiate community-benefit agreements with major corporations in their cities and win benefits such as local hiring policies and community investment standards.

Similarly, public finance officials in cities, states and school districts across the country could apply collective bargaining practices to their financial relationships with Wall Street. While there is no established mechanism for them to do so, there are some creative options worth exploring. For example, cities could establish a nonprofit or publicly funded agency to set guidelines for municipal finance deals and refuse to do business with any bank that does not comply. (More on this later.)

This may sound pie-in-the-sky, but the reality is that American taxpayer dollars are a tremendous source of bargaining power. Just three U.S. cities— New York, Los Angeles and Chicago— together with their related agencies and pension funds, do nearly $600 billion of business with Wall Street every year, more than the gross domestic product of Sweden. Wall Street wants a piece of that action. If it has to jump through a few hoops to get it, it will. This gives public officials the leverage to demand lower interest rates and fairer terms, freeing up scarce funds for community services like parks, libraries and schools.

Runaway fees

Over the last few decades, the banking industry has shifted its profit model away from interest. Big banks’ profits now rely heavily on fees—the money charged for creating loans, packaging them into securities, selling them and servicing them. This structure incentivizes banks to push more complex and expensive deals, like adjustable-rate mortgages and variable-rate bonds, that require fees and add-ons.

Banking fees do not have to bear any relationship to the actual cost of providing services. Banks charge whatever they can get away with, which is why fees have shot up as banks have consolidated and customers’ choices have narrowed. For example, in 2007, Bank of America raised its ATM fee for non-customers from $2 to $3. In all likelihood, the bank’s costs hadn’t suddenly risen 50 percent, despite a spokesperson’s claim that the fee hike would offset “significant” expansion and upgrade of its machines. Banks also arbitrarily raised prices on credit enhancements for municipal borrowers after the financial crash.

For cities and states, which deal in large dollar amounts, this nickel-anddiming hits particularly hard. A 1 percent fee on a $200 million bond is a lot more money than a 1 percent fee on a $200,000 mortgage. That explains why the city of Los Angeles paid $334 million in publicly disclosed fees for financial services in fiscal year 2013, according to the Fix L.A. report. This amount did not include principal or interest on any debt, and neither did it include fees that are not publicly disclosed, like the astronomical fees hedge funds and private equity firms charge pension funds to manage investments.

In Illinois, a preliminary analysis by researchers at the Service Employees International Union (SEIU)—full disclosure: where I used to work—found that the state’s pension funds spent approximately $400 million in publicly disclosed fees in 2014 alone. New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer has released a report showing that nearly all of the returns from the city’s five pension funds over the past 10 years—approximately $2.5 billion—have been eaten up by fees. An investigation by the International Business Times found that New Jersey’s pension funds paid more than $600 million in financial fees in 2014.

Every dollar that banks collect in fees from state and local governments and pension funds is a dollar not going toward essential neighborhood services. It’s not just the streets and sewers of Los Angeles. Illinois is teetering on the edge of a government shutdown. Already, Gov. Bruce Rauner has slashed funding for college scholarships for low-income students, taken a hatchet to vital healthcare programs like Medicaid, and cut state funding for CeaseFire, a highly regarded violence-prevention program with a proven track record.

Most public officials still resist acknowledging that these fees are a problem. When Gov. Rauner tried to cut the municipal share of state income tax revenue by 50 percent this spring, the Illinois House of Representatives responded with a first-of-its-kind resolution urging the state to match any such cuts with proportional cuts to financial-service fees. SEIU also proposed a reduction of financial-service fees during its contract negotiations for state workers, but this was roundly rejected by the Rauner administration.

Of course, Rauner has personally profited from these fees in the past. Before deciding to run for office, he was the managing director of a private equity firm that did business with Illinois pension funds, GTCR LLC.

But even public finance officials who don’t have direct industry ties typically drag their feet on fee reductions. The Los Angeles City Council’s efforts to pressure banks into renegotiating or terminating costly financial deals were met with stiff resistance from the city’s financial officers.

There are a number of reasons why finance staff can be reluctant, if not obstructionist, in efforts to curtail banking fees. One is the revolving door between public finance jobs and Wall Street. Another is the fact that public officials can be outflanked by smoothtalking bankers making dishonest and deceptive sales pitches. But perhaps the biggest reason is that officials truly believe they got the best deal they could. Los Angeles’s finance staff point out that even though they paid $334 million in fees in 2013 alone, they actually did better than many of their peers.

When Councilmember Paul Koretz called for a vote on the motion in Los Angeles, he skewered the City Administrative Officer’s (CAO) office, saying: “Our lack of success in negotiating thus far could partly be a factor of CAO saying that, ‘Hey, this is a fine deal and we’ve done as well on this as anything else we could do.’ ”

Changing the rules

Under the current system, Wall Street sets the rules of the game and public officials think they have no choice but to play on those terms. They may negotiate around the margins and get a fee lowered by half a percentage point, but they do not typically push back on the illogic of the underlying fee structures.

Cities that consider taking a stand against Wall Street are routinely told that if they do, their credit ratings will be downgraded, and banks and investors will stop doing business with them. In reality, the public finance officials who claim they have no choice but to pay high fees and accept onerous terms from Wall Street banks are like elephants afraid of mice. The notion that Wall Street could sustain a prolonged boycott against a city or state as punishment goes against the very nature of banking. U.S. taxpayer dollars are among the largest pools of capital in the world. If there is money to be made, there will always be a bank that will step in to get that business.

Similarly, threats about credit rating downgrades are baseless. Rating agencies are concerned with a borrower’s ability to pay back its bondholders. If anything, negotiating lower fees with banks would free up money and make cities and states less likely to default.

Some cities and states are already blazing the trail. In 2010, then-Massachusetts State Treasurer Timothy Cahill moved state deposits out of Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo because the banks’ credit card operations did not comply with the state’s usury law, which caps interest rates at 18 percent.

In 2012, the city of Oakland initiated a boycott of Goldman Sachs because the bank refused to renegotiate a deal that had put the city on the losing side of a risky interest-rate bet costing $4 milion in annual fees and payments.

And earlier this year, the Board of Supervisors of Santa Cruz County, Calif., voted not to do any new business for the next five years with banks convicted of felonies. The boycott affects the five banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, that pleaded guilty to illegally rigging foreign exchange rates.

These actions are first steps. However, they would be significantly more effective if cities and states joined together. When Oakland—a mid-sized city of 400,000 people—boycotted Goldman Sachs, Goldman didn’t flinch. But if several cities, states and school districts banded together and threatened a boycott, the banking behemoth would be forced to take notice.

Power in numbers

In an ideal world, the federal government would establish standards for protecting state and local officials against predatory financial deals. In the same way that there is a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, there is a dire need for a Municipal Financial Protection Bureau whose top priority would be to protect taxpayers’ interests. Even though there are already agencies with oversight over municipal finance—such as the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board and the Securities and Exchange Commission—protecting cities and states from abuse is not their priority. And they have close ties to the financial services industry.

Because federal regulation has proven woefully inadequate, and the chances of effective congressional action in the near future are slim to none, cities and states need to step up.

If just New York, Los Angeles and Chicago banded together and threatened to withhold their collective $600 billion of potential annual business with Wall Street, they wouldn’t have to simply accept the so-called market rates. They have enough bargaining power to set their own.

Together, they could refuse to sign contracts that prevent them from publicly disclosing fees. If they also get their state governments and pension funds on board, they could alter fee structures for things like bond underwriting. They could require any bank that pitches products to sign a fiduciary agreement, meaning they are legally required to put taxpayer interests ahead of their own.

Santa Cruz County Supervisor Ryan Coonerty has already said he is reaching out to other jurisdictions across the country to urge them to join in refusing to do business with felonious banks. If public officials were to coordinate their demands and present a unified front, they could force the banks to take them seriously.

My organization, the Roosevelt Institute’s ReFund America Project, works with community-labor coalitions in cities nationwide that are calling for a reduction in bank fees and an end to predatory municipal finance deals. Last summer, ReFund America and Local Progress—a network linking local elected officials with unions and progressive groups—led a small meeting called “A Progressive Vision for Municipal Finance.” We brought together organizers, policy experts and public officials to discuss various proposals for fixing municipal finance. Among those present were four city councilmembers and three representatives from mayors’ offices. These officials expressed strong interest in developing a bargaining vehicle that would allow cities to take collective action to stand up to Wall Street.

One idea was the creation of a nonprofit or public agency to set municipal finance guidelines. Individual cities and states could subscribe to these guidelines and the agency would in effect become the gatekeeper for banks wishing to do business with them. The more subscribers the agency had, the more bargaining power it would hold. Strict controls would help ensure the agency remained scrupulously independent of Wall Street. That organization could even be the precursor to a national Municipal Financial Protection Bureau.

People over profit

Together, American cities, states and pension funds hold untold power. If they flex their muscles and organize around coordinated demands, they can radically transform taxpayers’ relationship with Wall Street.

In 2012, a community leader from Oakland attended the Goldman Sachs shareholder meeting in New York City and urged CEO Lloyd Blankfein to renegotiate its interest rate swap with the city to avoid library closures and layoffs. He said it was “an issue of morality.” Blankfein responded, “No, I think it’s a matter of shareholder assets.”

This is the mentality that led Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi to call Goldman Sachs “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

It’s not just Goldman. All of municipal finance has become an extractive industry, pumping billions away from the communities that need them most. Morality is an externality that financial firms seldom concern themselves with. The financial sector’s fee-based business model is designed to maximize profits, not to protect taxpayers.

Banks may not have a moral compass, but their business contracts with our state and local governments can and should. After all, our cities, states and school districts are not simply fodder for Wall Street’s insatiable greed. Our elected leaders have a duty to protect us from predatory financial practices. Cities and states can force banks to charge drastically lower fees, do away with arbitrary fee structures and eliminate onerous terms that divert billions of dollars away from the most vulnerable members of our society into bonus checks for our nation’s wealthiest few.

Governors in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois are waging war on collective bargaining and telling taxpayers that empowering publicsector unions robs state coffers, but the real drain on public treasuries is the billions in fees paid to banks every year. And unlike money that goes into workers’ pockets, most of these fees are not recycled back into the local economy but sent to offshore tax havens or invested in complex financial schemes. The irony is that collective bargaining is one of the most effective tools available to public officials who truly want to do right by taxpayers—and cast off Wall Street’s tentacles.

IN THESE TIMES

BY SAQIB BHATTI

AUGUST 31, 2015

Saqib Bhatti is a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute and Director of the ReFund America Project.




Bond Insurers Surge on Proposed 15% Puerto Rico Electric Losses.

Shares of the two biggest debt insurers rallied after Puerto Rico’s Electric Power Authority reached an agreement with some bondholders on a restructuring plan that would impose a 15 percent loss on investors, less than some had projected.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. shares jumped 3.9 percent to $25.76 at 11:57 a.m. in New York, the biggest increase since November 2014, while MBIA Inc. surged 11.9 percent to $7.57. Both companies, which agreed to repay investors if the utility defaults on some securities, slid after Puerto Rico Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla said in June that the Caribbean island couldn’t afford to repay its debts.

Puerto Rico’s power utility, known as Prepa, has been working with creditors for a year to restructure its $8.3 billion debt load and modernize its plants. A group holding about 35 percent of Prepa’s outstanding bonds agreed late Tuesday to accept a loss of about 15 percent to pare the agency’s debt and reduce principal and interest payments by more than $700 million over the next five years.

A recovery of 85 cents on the dollar “would represent a significantly less painful outcome for the insurers on their exposure to Prepa’s debt than had been projected by many observers,” Mark Palmer, an analyst at BTIG LLC, said in a research note Tuesday.

Moody’s Investors Service had projected that investors would recoup between 65 percent and 80 percent of what they are owed.

Assured only consented to extend a forbearance pact until Sept. 18 to keep negotiations out of court. MBIA was the sole creditor to not renew that contract, according to a statement from Prepa.

Municipal-bond insurers are paid premiums to ensure that investors will receive principal and interest payments on time and in full. Under the agreement reached late Monday, the bondholders, who are traditional municipal investors and hedge funds, will exchange their securities for new debt repaid with a surcharge on the utility’s customers.

Bondholders outside of that group may receive debt that pays interest at a rate of 4 percent to 4.75 percent, or convertible capital appreciation bonds with higher payouts.

MBIA’s National Public Finance Guarantee Corp. had about $2.1 billion in total debt service exposure to Prepa as of June 30, company filings show. Assured Guaranty’s subsidiaries are on the hook for about $1.2 billion of debt-service payments related to the electric agency, according to a company presentation.

Greg Diamond, a spokesman for MBIA, declined to comment in an e-mail Tuesday on the company’s reason for not extending the forbearance agreement. Ashweeta Durani, a spokeswoman for Assured in New York, didn’t have an immediate comment.

Bloomberg

Michelle Kaske and Brian Chappatta

September 2, 2015 — 9:25 AM PDT




Strength in Numbers: Public-Private Partnerships.

Partner Steven Hilfinger contributed an article to the August 2015 issue of the Manufacturing Leadership Journal. “Strength in Numbers: Public-Private Partnerships,” discusses how Public-Private Partnerships (P3s) can help manufacturers tackle projects that are too complex or expensive for a single company to handle. Hilfinger, formerly a senior advisor to Michigan Governor Rick Snyder, outlines the key strategies in establishing successful P3s.

© 2015 FOLEY & LARDNER LLP




S&P's Public Finance Podcast (Hillview, KY And University Of Oklahoma).

In this week’s Extra Credit, Associate Scott Nees discusses our rating on Hillview, KY and Director Ken Rodgers talks about our rating action on the University of Oklahoma.

Listen to the Podcast.

Aug. 28, 2015




Are Muni Bonds an Income Equalizer?

A surprising look at who owns and who benefits the most from tax-exempt debt.

Income inequality has reemerged as the central issue in American politics. States and localities across the country are considering a variety of responses, including raising the minimum wage, enacting rent control and expanding affordable housing. But how will we pay for these responses?

Advocates for the “99 percent” have built a simple and compelling story: They blame their situation on taxes, the super-fortunate “1 percent” and a broken promise. For decades, the story goes, the lower and middle classes permitted the rich to pay less than their fair share of federal taxes. More money in the private economy was supposed to mean stronger economic growth, more jobs and better opportunities for everyone else. But instead of reinvesting in America, the 1 percenters took the money and ran. Now the 99 percent want to put an end to tax exemptions, credits and other “tax preferences” that have done little to help them.

Among these taxes are the “muni exemption” that excuses investors from paying federal income taxes on the interest they collect on investments in state and local government bonds. That interest rate is, of course, lower than it would be for a corporate bond. The exemption has been part of the federal tax code for as long as we’ve had a federal income tax. It’s a natural target because conventional wisdom says municipal bonds mostly benefit rich folks who can afford to buy them. President Obama seems sympathetic to this argument and has floated his own plans to reform the exemption.

As it turns out, some new academic research sheds light on this issue. In a new paper, researchers Dan Bergstresser of Brandeis University and Randy Cohen of Massachusetts Institute of Technology ask a simple but often overlooked question: Who actually owns municipal bonds? To get at the answer, they analyzed 25 years of detailed data on individual households’ finances. They found that municipal bond ownership has in fact become more concentrated with the wealthy. The top 1 percent of households by total wealth owned about one-quarter of all municipal bonds in 1989. By 2013 they had upped that edge to around 42 percent.

Ironically enough, this concentration of investment has a lot to do with our past attempts to reduce inequality. From 1989 to 2013, tax-deferred retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs became the savings vehicle of choice for the middle class. Before those tools were available, regular folks often bought municipal bonds as a tax-free way to save for retirement or for college. Today they can buy stocks and other taxable assets through a tax-free retirement account and realize a much better return on investment. Municipal bonds with their tax-free but lower interest rates make a lot of sense for rich people, but now the middle class have better options.

So if the 99 percent don’t benefit from the muni tax exemption, what else is in it for them? That’s the focus of a paper published in 2014 by a team of researchers from the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. They looked at data from individuals’ tax returns to see the muni exemption’s direct and, more important, indirect effects. They too found the wealthy realize most of the tax benefits. However, their results also show that low-income taxpayers gain substantial indirect benefits, equal to as much as 15 percent of their total income.

How do these indirect benefits work? Simply put, the muni exemption reduces a government’s cost to deliver basic public services more than it reduces the taxes paid by the rich. It allows public school districts to finance new school buildings at lower interest rates, so they do. Same for roads, transit systems, bridges and many other basic public services that the 99 percent use every day. It also shifts some of the 1 percent’s attention away from corporate bonds and stocks, and that makes those investments even better: Through their 401(k)s and IRAs, lower- and middle-class folks can own them tax-free.

Tax reform can and perhaps should be a part of our policy response to income inequality. But that reform should follow from a compelling story that takes account of all the facts. This is especially true of the muni exemption’s story.

GOVERNING.COM

BY JUSTIN MARLOWE | AUGUST 2015




New Jersey Completes $720 Million Exit From Derivative Contracts.

New Jersey has ended its experiment with derivative contracts.

Some of the proceeds for a $2.2 billion bond sale scheduled for next week from the state’s Economic Development Authority will go toward termination fees for the final contracts ended in June. The state has paid $720 million to exit interest-rate swaps on about $4.2 billion in debt, according to Steven Petrecca, assistant state treasurer.

The administration of Governor Chris Christie decided to unwind the transactions after he assumed office in 2010. Bond documents for the sale said New Jersey officials began to enter into swaps in the 1990s and “more prevalently” in the early to mid-2000s.

“Truthfully, I don’t think people really understood the risks that were there,” Petrecca said in a telephone interview Friday. “Our view is that a plain vanilla portfolio is sometimes the best.”

Derivatives known as swaps, in which two parties agree to exchange payments based on underlying assets or indexes, were sold to states and local governments as a way of saving taxpayers money. Since the 2008 financial crisis, municipalities have paid at least $9 billion to cancel the swaps, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The contracts were supposed to reduce borrowing costs and protect them against rising payments.

Christie, who took office in 2010 and is a 2016 Republican presidential contender, inherited the swaps portfolio, which was connected to a “heck of a lot” of outstanding debt, Petrecca said.

In June, the Economic Development Authority terminated the contracts with eight counterparties on $1.15 billion in debt, the last such agreements backed by the state, bond documents show.

Bloomberg

Romy Varghese

August 21, 2015




Munis Dodge Market Turmoil With Top 2015 Returns Among Assets.

For U.S. investors, the safe haven from the recent global financial turmoil might be in their own backyards.

The $3.6 trillion market for state and local government debt rallied in August, pushing this year’s return to 1.1 percent, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show. Among fixed-income assets, that matched Treasuries, the traditional financial refuge, and beat U.S. corporate bonds, which lost 0.5 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index is down 3.5 percent, the most since 2008, while commodities saw about 16 percent of their value disappear.

The returns underscore the calm in the municipal-bond market, where most of the securities are held by individuals seeking tax-free income instead of speculators betting on price swings.

“Munis certainly have been an area of relative tranquility,” said Chris Alwine, head of municipals at Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based Vanguard Group Inc., which oversees $147 billion of the debt. “We expect to see higher levels of volatility in the Treasury and credit markets, but munis have been removed from that and we expect it’ll remain that way.”

Volatility has surged in global financial markets since China’s surprise devaluation of the yuan this month, which sparked speculation that policy makers may fail to prevent a steep slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The S&P 500 tumbled 11 percent in the six trading days through Tuesday, only to pare the losses as stocks rallied for the rest of the week.

Benchmark 10-year muni yields, which move in the opposite direction as prices, have slid 0.09 percentage point over the last three weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

History suggests the gains could last. The 2.22 percent yield on 10-year AAA munis compares with 2.14 percent for similar Treasuries. The ratio of the two rates, now 104 percent, is above the 97-percent average over the past decade, signaling that state and local debt remains cheap in comparison.

“It looks like people are coming in, parking cash, and re-evaluating what their asset allocation has been,” said Rick Taormina, head of municipal strategies at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, which oversees $56 billion in state and local debt. “You see folks in these times go into safety.”

In many ways, the odds were stacked against a rally.

Unlike last year, when investors poured cash into funds focused on munis, individuals yanked money from them for 11 straight weeks through July, the longest stretch in 18 months, Lipper US Fund Flows data show. The exodus came as states and cities were flooding the market with new bonds at the fastest pace in at least 12 years, seeking to borrow before the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.

The market was also put on edge by pockets of distress. Saddled with $72 billion of debt, Puerto Rico is on the verge of trying to force unprecedented losses on investors and defaulted for the first time this month.

Chicago’s bond prices have tumbled since it lost its investment grade from Moody’s Investors Service in May, the result of soaring bills to the workers’ retirement system that the city shortchanged for years.

Yet buyers haven’t been hurt by defaults as the growing economy boosts government tax collections. With the exception of Puerto Rico, only one bond issuer rated by Moody’s — Dowling College in Oakdale, New York — failed to pay investors during the past two years. That’s the first time that’s happened since the 1990s.

Bankruptcies have also been scarce: Just Hillview, Kentucky, population 8,000, has sought court protection from creditors since Detroit did so two years ago.

Municipal securities carry an average rating in the AA tier, an advantage in a tumultuous global market, Vanguard’s Alwine said. It also helps that few localities would be directly affected by an slowdown in China or elsewhere overseas.

“It’s a high-quality market and it’s all domestic-focused,” he said. “You have this weaker overseas growth, but when you look at munis, they’re immune to those concerns.”

Bloomberg

Brian Chappatta

August 27, 2015




Puerto Rico Spends More Than $60 Million on Debt Restructuring.

The old adage that it takes money to make money assumes a whole new meaning when its comes to Puerto Rico.
The commonwealth and its main electric utility have spent more than $60 million in legal and advisory fees from firms such as Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP and Millstein & Co. over the past two years as the governor and public finance officials seek to restructure the island’s $72 billion debt burden, according to a review of contracts by Bloomberg News.

And the billable hours will probably keep adding up. Commonwealth officials plan to unveil a proposal next week expected by analysts to seek a reduction in debt payments that may lead to protracted negotiations with creditors. Unlike Detroit, Puerto Rico localities cannot file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, leaving the island without a clear legal framework to resolve its debt crisis.

“It makes sense they would need to rely on consultants more than the average issuer in a similar situation,” said Matt Fabian, a partner at Concord, Massachusetts-based Municipal Market Analytics. “It’s an incredibly complex restructuring, with a lot of different investor groups, a lot of different securities and moving parts.”

The contracts provided by Puerto Rico’s Office of the Comptroller show the Government Development Bank, which is overseeing the island’s debt-adjustment proposal, and the Electric Power Authority, which is negotiating with its bondholders, have spent at least $60 million on outside consultants.

Puerto Rico’s Restructuring Costs

Puerto Rico's Restructuring Costs

Betsy Nazario, a spokeswoman in San Juan for the GDB, Barbara Morgan, who represents the bank at SKDKnickerbocker in New York, and Jesus Manuel Ortiz, a spokesman in San Juan for Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla, didn’t respond to e-mails and phone messages. Jose Echevarria, a spokesman in San Juan for the electric utility, declined to comment.

A Puerto Rico restructuring would be the largest ever in the $3.6 trillion municipal-bond market. After a history of borrowing to push out debt payments and fill budget gaps, the commonwealth is seeking to break the cycle with investors declining to lend more money. Officials plan to craft a debt adjustment plan by Aug. 30. The power utility and its creditors must negotiate a restructuring plan for its $9 billion of debt by Sept. 1 or an agreement that keeps discussions out of court will expire.

Puerto Rico needs to cut its debt load to $40 billion, according to Peter Hayes, who helps oversee $116 billion of munis at New York-based BlackRock Inc. Bondholders may receive an average of just 60 cents on the dollar if the commonwealth alters its debt, Hayes said.

The commonwealth’s anticipated restructuring follows similar debt crises on the mainland. Detroit’s bankruptcy, a 17-month process, cost $177.9 million on $8 billion of bonded debt. Jefferson County, Alabama, the second-biggest bankruptcy case after Detroit, spent about $38.3 million. That case lasted about two years and involved $4.2 billion.

A Puerto Rico restructuring will take longer, Fabian said. The debt consists of bonds repaid with different revenue streams and legal protections. The bondholders vary as well, with some wanting full repayment and others who bought at a discount likely willing to take less than par.

“This will likely take much, much longer than anyone expects,” Fabian said. “There’s the restructuring, and then there’s likely to be litigation following the restructuring.”

The GDB has spent about $26 million on legal and other advisory fees since it first hired outside professionals in October 2013 to help address its debt crisis, according to contracts. The Electric Power Authority, known as Prepa, is on the hook for about $35 million to law firms and consultants since it entered into a forbearance agreement with its creditors a year ago.

Cleary Gottlieb, which has advised Argentina and Greece in sovereign-debt negotiations, is set to receive the largest payments. The New-York based law firm charged the GDB $12.9 million through June, according to the contracts. Another $2 million agreement that ends June 2016 allows Cleary Gottlieb to enter into subcontracts with former International Monetary Fund official Anne Krueger– who authored a report that recommends the island lower its debt payments and extend maturities — and former U.S. bankruptcy judge Steven Rhodes, who is serving as an adviser to the GDB.

Prepa has also enlisted Cleary Gottlieb, agreeing to pay as much as $10 million through December. Shannon Lynch, a spokeswoman for Cleary Gottlieb in New York, declined to comment.

Millco Advisors LP, an affiliate of Washington-based Millstein, has been providing financial advice to the commonwealth and Prepa since February 2014. The company is set to earn as much as $9.5 million through September from the GDB, according to contracts. Jim Millstein, the firm’s chief executive officer and a former Cleary Gottlieb partner, was the U.S. Treasury Department’s chief restructuring officer until March 2011, overseeing the overhaul of American International Group Inc.

Millco may also receive as much as $9 million if Prepa restructures its debt, under a contract that expires Dec. 31. Jenni Main, Millstein’s chief financial officer, declined to comment.

Lisa Donahue, managing director at New York-based AlixPartners LLP, has been serving as Prepa’s chief restructuring officer since September 2014, one month after the utility and its creditors signed a forbearance agreement. AlixPartners will earn as much as $22 million through Nov. 15, according to contracts with Prepa.

Florence Huang, a spokeswoman for AlixPartners, didn’t respond to an e-mail and phone message.

While Puerto Rico is spending millions on outside experts as it faces a liquidity crunch, those professionals should provide a way out for the commonwealth that will improve the economy and make its debt sustainable, said James Spiotto, managing director at Chapman Strategic Advisors LLC, which advises on financial restructuring.

“The analysis part is important in addressing it in an affective way, so that the money you spend is well spent because you’re going to need a recovery plan that is going improve the situation, grow the commonwealth and thereby improve the situation for everyone,” Spiotto said.

A $650,000 GDB contract with Public Financial Management Inc. ended in June. A second agreement of equal amount expires June 2016. The Philadelphia-based firm is advising the island on capital-market transactions. Sandra Sosinski, a spokeswoman at PFM, directed questions to the GDB.

The GDB first hired outside communications firms in October 2013 as more mainland news outlets in the past two years have focused on the debt crisis. The bank’s contracts with SKDKnickbocker totaled $1.6 million through June, which includes advertising costs in financial newspapers as part of the island’s media campaign. Another $900,000 is owed to New York-based Sard Verbinnen & Co. for its work through June. Dave Millar, a spokesman at Sard Verbinnen, declined to comment.

Bloomberg

Michelle Kaske

August 28, 2015




Bloomberg Brief Weekly Video - 8/27

Taylor Riggs, an editor at Bloomberg Brief, talks with Joe Mysak about this week’s municipal market news.

Watch the Video.

August 27, 2015




Fitch: Oil Price Effect on U.S. Locals Will Vary.

Fitch Ratings-New York/Chicago-25 August 2015: The recent decline in oil prices has raised the pressure on certain cities, counties and single-purpose districts in oil-producing states, Fitch Ratings says. In our view, some will be able to raise taxes (and other revenue sources), cut spending and use reserves. Others have sufficient size and economic diversity to weather the economic stresses. All will be affected to varying degrees by the decline. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell below $40 per barrel in trading yesterday for the first time since 2009.

Our recent review of historical financial and economic data from selected Fitch-rated local governments since the early 1980s shows a high correlation between energy prices and financial data. We considered total tax revenue, GDP, unemployment and home prices. For example, sales tax collections in Texas fell by 1.4% in June 2015 from the previous June due largely to a weaker energy industry, ending a more than five-year streak of monthly gains.

We believe cities like Houston are facing some risk due to the decline in oil. Most major regional and multinational energy companies have offices in the Houston area, exposing it to employment pressures. Houston has limited ability to raise property taxes to compensate for revenue losses, as Proposition 1 limits tax revenue increases to the lesser of 4.5% or the combined percentage increases in population and consumer inflation. However, Houston’s job diversity may mitigate some of this risk. Roughly 30,000 workers there are employed by hundreds of refining plants in the area, which benefit from lower oil prices.

Terrebonne Parish, LA also serves as headquarters for some offshore oil and gas companies and faces economic-related risks. The recent decline in oil prices will likely affect local employment, sales tax collections and home prices. Any related state funding decline could compound the impact, as cities and parishes in Louisiana receive a portion of state severance taxes and royalties. For Terrebonne Parish, these two sources total $5.9 million in the fiscal 2015 budget, or roughly 25% of general fund revenues. And, at nearly $41 million, sales taxes represented more than 35% of budgeted parish governmental revenues in fiscal 2015. Property tax millage rates can be increased to counter tax base losses, but any hike in a local sales tax rate must be approved by voters.

In our view, two Fitch-rated local issuers are at the highest risk: Culberson County Hospital District and Zapata County, TX, which are in remote locations with limited economies. To read more about these issuers and our review of historical financial and economic data for other issuers, see Fitch’s Aug. 17 special report on “How Will Local Oil Patch Governments Fare?”

Contact:

Steve Murray
Senior Director
U.S. Public Finance
+1 512 215-3729
111 Congress Avenue
Austin, TX

Rob Rowan
Senior Director
Fitch Wire
+1 212 908-9159
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY




Comment Deadlines Approaching for GASB Proposals on External Investment Pools and Irrevocable Split-Interest Agreements.

Norwalk, CT, August 24, 2015—Parties interested in submitting written comments on the Governmental Accounting Standards Board’s proposed Statements regarding certain external investment pools and irrevocable split-interest agreements should file comment letters in the coming weeks.

The Exposure Draft, Accounting and Financial Reporting for Certain External Investment Pools, would permit qualifying external investment pools to measure pool investments at amortized cost for financial reporting purposes. Reporting under the amortized cost basis reflects investment cost and adjustments made for premiums or discounts associated with the purchase price of the underlying investments in the pool. Stakeholders are encouraged to review and provide comments on the proposal by August 31, 2015.

The Exposure Draft, Accounting and Financial Reporting for Irrevocable Split-Interest Agreements, proposes recognition and measurement guidance for state and local governments that benefit from irrevocable split-interest agreements. The proposal addresses when these types of arrangements constitute an asset for accounting and financial reporting purposes in cases where the resources are administered by a third party. The proposal also seeks input on expanded guidance for irrevocable split-interest agreements in which the government holds the assets. Stakeholders are encouraged to review the proposal and provide comments by September 18, 2015.

To submit a comment letter on a GASB project, include the project number (Certain External Investment Pools Project No. 3-29E; Irrevocable Split-Interest Agreements Project No. 3-26E) when emailing [email protected] or submitting in writing to:

Governmental Accounting Standards Board
401 Merritt 7
PO Box 5116
Norwalk, CT 06856-5116




How Can Communities Finance Microgrids for Public Safety?

Small local power grids, which may include renewable energy generation, can ensure the lights stay on during weather-related power outages.

In the United States, microgrids are concentrated in the Northeast, according to Katherine Tweed, a writer at Greentech Media. How can microgrids expand their footprint and reach other regions and cities?

The need for climate resilience is one common justification for building microgrids. Microgrids — small local power grids that may include renewable energy generation — can ensure the lights stay on at hospitals, transit centers, emergency shelters, business headquarters, prisons, colleges, apartment buildings and government offices during weather-related power outages.

According to Tweed, New Jersey has leveraged $200 million from its community development block grant for disaster recovery to create an energy resilience bank. This bank may support distributed generation and microgrids at community facilities such as water-treatment plants, high schools, town centers, emergency-response shelters and hospitals.

In the metropolitan areas of New York City, Washington and Chicago, owners of affordable housing complexes seek out opportunities to add climate-resilience technology to their buildings.

Taking a larger-picture perspective, microgrid developers could build electrical grids to serve groups of multifamily housing complexes. They also could provide microgrids for neighborhoods where residents might be unable to leave during weather emergencies due to income or health considerations.

What financing sources are available?

Microgrid financing can come from any one of a patchwork of funding sources. Sometimes, multiple sources can be combined to support individual projects. Putting these pieces together can require extensive groundwork and patience.

According to a presentation published by Ballard Spahr LLP, many financing tools are available to support microgrid construction. These include energy bonds, tax deductions, tax credits, credit enhancements and direct cash payments.

Energy bonds may include qualified energy conservation bonds, taxable bonds and tax-exempt bonds.

Tax credits and tax deductions can benefit for-profit microgrid projects, but cannot be used by tax-exempt organizations directly. However, municipal project developers can partner with for-profit entities.

Tax deductions can include accelerated depreciation on the capital cost of energy projects, the commercial energy-efficiency deduction on capital costs and sales or property tax exemptions.

Federal tax credits for microgrids include the production tax credit, which covers utility-scale renewable energy installations, and the investment tax credit (ITC), which supports smaller renewable energy and cogeneration installations.

Some individual tax credits that recently have been available apply to wind power, solar power, geothermal energy, microturbines, hydropower, municipal solid waste combustion, cogeneration, biomass, fuel cells, marine power and thermal pumps.

However, a substantial number of these credits — the ones that apply to biomass, hydropower, marine power, municipal solid waste combustion and large-scale wind power — required construction to begin before 2014.

The future of these tax credits is uncertain because of pending changes in federal tax policy. Depending on the political decisions that are made in the next several years, these tax credits could be altered.

Credit enhancements involve third parties with good credit ratings committing to pay borrowers’ debts if they default. These enhancements are available in the form of loan guarantees from United States Department of Energy, United States Department of Agriculture and other funders.

There are a number of potential sources of direct cash payments. At one point, 1,603 cash grants were available in lieu of the ITC; however, this is largely no longer the case. Renewable energy credit payments and rebates also can assist with financing. Other federal, state or local grants and incentives also may be an option.

Many utilities offer demand-side and efficiency incentive programs that provide rebates and rewards.

There are two methods of using shared savings to finance microgrids. In one approach, the developer provides the capital and shares more of the savings. In a second approach, the sponsor plays that role.

Public-benefit corporations, private investors, banks, utilities and energy service companies can provide private financing for community microgrid development.

With so many alternatives available, how can municipal project developers choose the options that are best for them?

Pace Law School has published a report that recommends a thorough initial assessment of each project. The assessment should take into account the sponsor’s capital resources, its credit quality and its preferred ownership structure. These considerations should determine whether the sponsor relies on debt financing, equity financing, leasing, government funding or other options.

Is warehouse credit an option?

In January, a report by Clean Energy Group explored the possibility of providing warehouse credit for microgrids and related projects. The report, “Ramp up Resilient Power Finance” advised the creation of an integrated finance approach to make developers’ work easier.

Warehouse credit involves pooling funds from groups of loans into securities that then can be traded. Green banks, community development financial institutions and government stakeholders could set up warehouse credit for microgrids once they identify adequate demand exists.

According to Clean Energy Group, warehouse credit could assist both large and small projects.

Large resilient power projects might include wastewater treatment facilities and utility-owned microgrids.

Smaller community resilient-power facilities might include multifamily affordable housing, assisted-living facilities, emergency shelters, police and fire services, dialysis and community health centers, and publicly owned buildings.

Clean Energy Group is also researching ways to integrate distributed generation with affordable housing and senior housing. This could help to prevent avoidable humanitarian crises during weather-related blackouts.

“Fortunately, new institutions do not need to be created for these financing purposes,” the report said.

GreenBiz

Kat Friedrich

Wednesday, August 19, 2015 – 2:30am




S&P's Public Finance Podcast (GARVEES, PRASA, And Pike County Schools).

In this week’s Extra Credit, Managing Director Peter Murphy addresses GARVEES, Senior Director Ted Chapman talk about PRASA, and Anna Uboytseva discusses our rating action on Pike County Schools.

Listen to the Podcast.

Aug. 21, 2015




Fitch: CA Pension Case Highlights Legal Obstacles to Reform.

Fitch Ratings-New York-21 August 2015: A recent legal settlement in San Jose, CA underscores our view that reducing pension liabilities will be challenging for most governments and ultimately dependent on state-by-state judicial review, Fitch Ratings says. The city’s agreement with police and firefighter unions would restrict most pension reforms to new hires, leaving benefits for existing employees and retirees largely untouched. San Jose voters authorized broad changes to public pensions under Measure B in 2012, but reforms have been stalled by legal challenges from the outset.

Many observers had expected the litigation to provide an opportunity for legal clarification of the so-called California Rule, which provides that pension benefits are a vested contractual right and cannot be impaired for existing public employees and retirees. Lower courts had generally supported this position in earlier Measure B litigation, but such cases had yet to come before the Supreme Court of California.

Local government pension reform in California could see increased attention under a voter initiative targeting the November 2016 general election. Signature gathering recently began for the Voter Empowerment Act of 2016, which would amend the state’s constitution to permit local voter initiatives to address public employee compensation and retirement benefits. The measure was sponsored by San Jose’s former mayor, among other proponents, and appears designed to overturn the California Rule.

The likelihood of approval for the new initiative is uncertain, particularly given anticipated strong opposition from public employee unions. However, ongoing legal battles over pension reform can be expected regardless of the initiative’s outcome and will continue to challenge efforts to reduce pension liabilities in California and other states.

Contact:

Stephen Walsh
Director
U.S. Public Finance
+1 415 732-7573
650 California Street
San Francisco, CA

Rob Rowan
Senior Director
Fitch Wire
+1 212 908-9159
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY






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